在近期科技板块加速上升的势头里，仅下半年以来就已诞生了2只"翻倍基"，还有多只产品同期涨幅超过了九成。 个股中，光模块龙头新易盛、中际旭创和天孚通信持续上攻的涨幅为基金净值贡献良多，此外，年内涨超6倍的胜宏科技 和下半年翻倍的英维克等也出现在多只绩优基金的重仓名单中。 值得一提的是，下半年敢于重仓光模块并净值涨幅居前的基金，在上半年表现各异。有基金经理选择"从一而终"坚守相 关板块，也有基金经理勇于"认错"，承认此前的减仓"草率"并及时加仓。 下半年已诞生两只"翻倍基" 复盘下半年至今的A股行情，人工智能带来的硬件投资热潮更为火爆。细分领域中，以"易中天"（新易盛、中际旭创和天 孚通信）为主导的CPO（光模块）更是其中翘楚。 数据显示，仅7月1日至今的两个多月时间里，上述三只个股涨幅分别达到了175%、189%以及136%。因此，重仓这几只 个股乃至CPO板块的基金也受益匪浅。 据研报统计，截至二季度末，公募基金重点加仓光模块/光器件板块，个股方面，公募基金持仓股份量增加前十依次为新 易盛、中际旭创、长芯博创、仕佳光子、华测导航、天孚通信、永鼎股份、中天科技、德科立、灿勤科技等。 因此，多只公募基金下半年亦有 ...

证券研究报告 |行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 09 21 年 月 日 通信 OCS：光网络的下一个"战场" 光学电路交换（Optical Circuit Switching,OCS）技术代表光网络从传统"连接" 功能向智能"交换"功能的战略演进，作为解决传统电交换带宽瓶颈和功耗问题 的关键路径，正成为光厂商竞相布局的新战场。 【OCS 技术概述：光域直接交换的实现】 光路交换机（OCS）：不同于传统交换机，直接光路交换，无需做光电转换。 OCS 的设计理念是光纤信号进入交换机后，不再进行光电转换，而是通过光 信号的波分复用、交叉连接等进行转发等操作，光电转换在服务器端进行； 同时配合 3D 环状的网络拓扑结构，OCS 有效降低了通信硬件成本和功耗。光 交换的优势包括：低时延、低网络代价、低硬件成本、路由可重配、易于集 群布局等。 光交换有多种实现技术，主要包括以下几种： 【发展现状：头部厂商积极抢占制高点】 随着 OCS 技术的潜力得到广泛认可，光通信厂商纷纷将其视为新的"演武场"， 积极布局备战，基于自身技术优势选择不同的切入路径。 增持（维持） 行业走势 0% 28% 56% 84% 11 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the A-share market, particularly focusing on the "Yizhongtian" stocks, which are heavily influenced by AI computing power and have seen significant price increases. The article raises questions about whether these stocks are overvalued or undervalued and how investors should respond to the high valuations [1][2]. Industry Trends - The competition in AI computing power is not only about GPU capabilities but also about data transmission efficiency, where optical modules play a crucial role. The article compares GPUs to top chefs and optical modules to waitstaff, emphasizing the importance of efficient data transfer [2]. - The demand for optical modules is expected to rise due to the rapid development of AI, leading to upgrades in transmission speeds. The transition from 400Gb/s to 800Gb/s optical modules is already reflected in the performance of "Yizhongtian" stocks [3][5]. Performance Metrics - In the first half of 2025, the revenue and profit growth of key companies in the optical module sector were significant. For instance, Xinyi Sheng reported a revenue of 10.44 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 282.64%, while Zhongji Xuchuang's revenue was 14.79 billion yuan, up 36.95% [4]. - The sales volume of optical modules also showed strong growth, with Zhongji Xuchuang selling 9.05 million units, a 45.96% increase, and Xinyi Sheng selling 6.95 million units, a 112.53% increase [9]. Capital Expenditure Trends - Major tech companies are significantly increasing their capital expenditures, with a 69% year-on-year increase in Q2 2025, totaling $87.4 billion. This trend is expected to continue, with projected capital expenditures for major cloud providers reaching $333.8 billion in 2025 [10][11]. - Chinese internet giants are also ramping up their capital expenditures, with a 99.38% year-on-year increase in Q1 2025, totaling 55.01 billion yuan [11]. Future Projections - The market for 800G and 1.6T optical modules is expected to grow rapidly, with predictions indicating that the overall market size will exceed $22 billion by 2030 [5]. - By 2026, the performance of 1.6T optical modules is anticipated to start reflecting in the financial results of companies in the sector [8]. Valuation Considerations - Analysts have incorporated the expected performance from 1.6T optical modules and increased capital expenditures into their 2026 earnings forecasts, predicting significant profit growth for companies like Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng [16]. - The article suggests that the current market environment may allow for higher valuations, with a reasonable price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for "Yizhongtian" stocks estimated between 30-40 times, potentially increasing to 40-50 times if liquidity improves [18][19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for the company [1][6] Core Insights - The company has experienced significant growth in its active business segment, with a revenue increase of 57.8% year-on-year, reaching 2.46 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 [1] - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders rose by 37.5% year-on-year to 900 million yuan in the same period [1] - The active business is expected to continue its growth trajectory, driven by strong demand for high-speed optical modules and the ongoing expansion of production capacity in Thailand [2][3] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company's revenue from passive business reached 860 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.8% [2] - The company's revenue for Q2 2025 was 1.51 billion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 83.3% and a year-on-year growth of 60.0% [1] - The net profit for Q2 2025 was 560 million yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 49.6% and a year-on-year increase of 66.3% [1] Business Development - The company is positioned as a core supplier for NVIDIA's CPO (Coherent Photonic Optics) project, which is expected to enhance its competitive edge in the active business segment [3] - The company has established a vertically integrated business model that is anticipated to further increase the proportion of active business in its overall revenue [5] - The domestic revenue for the company in the first half of 2025 was 530 million yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 71.7% [5] Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The profit forecast for the company has been adjusted upwards, with expected net profits of 2.04 billion yuan, 3.48 billion yuan, and 4.52 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6] - The report indicates that the closing price on September 18, 2025, corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 68.5 for 2025, 40.2 for 2026, and 31.0 for 2027 [6]

Group 1 - Tianfu Communication's stock increased by 5.08% on September 19, reaching a price of 188.50 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 3.69 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 2.53%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 146.54 billion CNY [1] - Suzhou Tianfu Optical Communication Co., Ltd. was established on July 20, 2005, and went public on February 17, 2015. The company's main business involves the research, design, high-precision manufacturing, and sales of optical passive devices, with 98.91% of its revenue coming from optical communication components [1] Group 2 - Dachen Fund has a significant holding in Tianfu Communication, with its Dachen Technology Innovation Mixed A Fund (008988) holding 234,600 shares, accounting for 5.71% of the fund's net value, making it the sixth-largest holding. The estimated floating profit today is approximately 2.14 million CNY [2] - The Dachen Technology Innovation Mixed A Fund was established on April 29, 2020, with a current size of 157 million CNY. It has achieved a return of 104.84% this year, ranking 52 out of 8,172 in its category, and a return of 157.06% over the past year, ranking 68 out of 7,980 [2] - The fund manager, Guo Weiling, has been in position for 4 years and 238 days, with the total asset size of the fund being 328 million CNY. The best return during his tenure is 60.37%, while the worst return is -20.74% [2]

同类比较看，截至9月18日，创业板人工智能ETF（159363）最新规模超44亿元，近1个月日均成交额超 11亿元，在跟踪创业板人工智能指数的6只ETF中高居第一。 热门ETF方面，同类规模最大、流动性突出的创业板人工智能ETF（159363）场内价格涨超2%冲击四连 阳，领涨同类AI主题类ETF，实时成交额超3亿元。 | | | 分时 多日 1分 5分 15分 30分 · | | | | | F9 盘前盘后 婴加 九转 面线 工具 @ 2 > | | | 创业板人工智能ETF华宝 | 159363 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 159363[创业版人工程制ETF华志] 09:50 价 0.882 图片 0.016(1.85%) 436 0.878 蓝 -- | | | | 0.882 | | +0.016 +1.85% | | | | | | | | | | | SZSE CNY 9:50:27 交易中 | | 27 8 * | | | | | | | | | | ...

Group 1 - The communication equipment sector showed strong performance at the beginning of trading, with companies like Changfei Optical Fiber and Dekeli reaching new highs during the session [1] - Dingxin Communications hit the daily limit up, indicating significant investor interest and confidence in the stock [1] - Other companies such as Hengtong Optic-Electric, Tianfu Communication, Fenghuo Communication, Sega Technology, and Changxin Bochuang also experienced gains, reflecting a broader positive trend in the industry [1]

Group 1 - The communication equipment sector showed strong performance at the beginning of trading, with several companies reaching new highs [1] - Companies such as Changfei Fiber, Dekor, and Dingxin Communications experienced significant price increases, with Dingxin Communications hitting the daily limit [1] - Other companies including Hengtong Optic, Tianfu Communication, Fenghuo Communication, Shijia Technology, and Changxin Bochuang also saw upward movement in their stock prices [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the communication industry [5]. Core Insights - The communication industry experienced steady revenue growth and accelerated profitability in H1 2025, with total revenue reaching 1,785 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.07%, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 160.43 billion yuan, up 11.26% year-on-year [2][8]. - In Q2 2025, the industry continued to show robust growth, with revenue of 942.48 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.91%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 98.68 billion yuan, up 12.33% year-on-year [11]. - Key sectors such as optical modules, communication PCBs, network equipment manufacturers, and IoT modules demonstrated strong performance, ranking among the top five in revenue and net profit growth rates [14][16]. Summary by Sections 1. H1 2025 Performance Overview - The communication industry achieved total revenue of 1,785 billion yuan in H1 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 10.07%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 160.43 billion yuan, up 11.26% year-on-year [2][8]. 2. AI Industry Chain Investment - Overseas cloud vendors are expected to maintain optimistic growth in capital expenditures, with a total of 95 billion USD in Q2 2025, marking an increase of 82.96% year-on-year [22]. - Major companies like Apple and Meta are significantly increasing their investments in AI infrastructure, indicating a robust outlook for the AI industry chain [22][24]. 3. Sector Performance Changes - The optical module and device sector reported revenue of 479.88 billion yuan in H1 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 64.88%, and net profit of 108.76 billion yuan, up 111.99% year-on-year [31]. - The communication PCB sector achieved revenue of 572.49 billion yuan in H1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 37.66%, and net profit of 80.58 billion yuan, up 80.79% year-on-year [36]. - The network equipment sector generated revenue of 5,071.11 billion yuan in H1 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 28.86%, and net profit of 191.84 billion yuan, up 19.57% year-on-year [40]. 4. Telecom Operators' Performance - The basic telecom operators' sector reported revenue of 10,133.93 billion yuan in H1 2025, a slight increase of 0.33% year-on-year, with net profit of 1,136.01 billion yuan, up 5.14% year-on-year [54]. - China Mobile's total connections reached 3.815 billion, with a net increase of 145 million, and its digital transformation revenue grew by 6.6% year-on-year [55].

Company Overview - Tianfu Communication, established on July 20, 2005, and listed on February 17, 2015, specializes in the research, design, precision manufacturing, and sales of optical passive devices, with 98.91% of its main business revenue coming from optical communication components [1][2] Stock Performance - As of September 17, Tianfu Communication's stock price was 174.69 CNY per share, with a market capitalization of 135.807 billion CNY. The stock has increased by 169.17% year-to-date, with a recent 0.13% decline over the last five trading days [1] - The stock has seen significant trading activity, with a total turnover of 18.90 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 1.37% on the same day [1] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Tianfu Communication reported a revenue of 2.456 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 57.84%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 899 million CNY, up 37.46% year-on-year [2] Shareholder Information - As of September 10, the number of shareholders increased to 110,100, with an average of 7,047 shares held per shareholder, a decrease of 1.98% from the previous period [2] - The company has distributed a total of 2.172 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 1.536 billion CNY distributed over the last three years [3] Institutional Holdings - As of June 30, 2025, major institutional shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, holding 17.97 million shares, and various ETFs such as E Fund's ChiNext ETF and Huatai-PB's CSI 300 ETF, all showing increases in their holdings compared to the previous period [3]