来源：新浪基金∞工作室 电信ETF汇添富（560300）业绩比较基准为中证电信主题指数收益率，管理人为汇添富基金管理股份有 限公司，基金经理为何丽竹，成立（2023-12-05）以来回报为105.17%，近一个月回报为0.12%。 2月3日，电信ETF汇添富（560300）开盘跌0.15%，报2.045元。电信ETF汇添富（560300）重仓股方 面，中国移动开盘涨0.00%，中国联通涨0.62%，中国电信涨0.00%，中国卫通涨1.97%，中际旭创涨 2.71%，银之杰涨0.73%，新易盛涨4.10%，中兴通讯涨1.08%，天孚通信涨5.66%，中天科技涨1.77%。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文基于第三方数据库自动发布，不代表新浪财经观点，任何在本文 出现的信息均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建议。如有出入请以实际公告为准。如有疑问，请联系 biz@staff.sina.com.cn。 ...

Core Insights - The report indicates that after a period of volatility, the market is expected to regain momentum in February, supported by a decrease in the volatility index from a peak of 102 to around 32, which is historically low [2][3] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on two main investment themes: technology growth and cyclical recovery, as funds are likely to rotate towards underperforming sectors [3][4] Investment Themes - **Technology Growth**: The AI industry is experiencing significant positive changes, with expectations for OAI listings and advancements in storage, CPU, and packaging sectors. The report highlights the importance of monitoring policy catalysts and industry developments, particularly in emerging sectors like aerospace, new materials, and quantum technology [6][6] - **Cyclical Recovery**: The report suggests that sectors such as chemicals, real estate, and core consumer assets are expected to see a rebound as market sentiment improves. The report notes that these sectors are currently at low points in their economic cycles, with potential for recovery as institutional positions are historically low [6][6] Recommended Stocks - **Jingsheng Electromechanical (300316.SZ)**: The company is positioned to benefit from increasing demand in space and overseas photovoltaic equipment, with a market cap of 58.3 billion and projected EPS growth from 0.95 in 2026 to 1.17 in 2027 [7][7] - **Nuwai Co., Ltd. (603699.SH)**: As a leading industrial valve manufacturer, the company is expected to see growth driven by LNG and marine vessel demand, with a projected EPS increase from 2.51 in 2026 to 3.00 in 2027 [7][7] - **Longjing Environmental Protection (600388.SH)**: The company is focusing on green electricity and energy storage, with a projected EPS growth from 1.20 in 2026 to 1.37 in 2027 [7][7] - **Chip Microelectronics (688630.SH)**: The company anticipates significant profit growth, with EPS expected to rise from 4.18 in 2026 to 6.08 in 2027 [7][7] - **AVIC High-Tech (600862.SH)**: The company is expected to benefit from the increasing demand for aerospace materials, with projected EPS growth from 1.17 in 2026 to 1.29 in 2027 [7][7] - **Ping An Insurance (601318.SH)**: The company is projected to maintain strong growth in new business value (NBV), with EPS expected to rise from 8.59 in 2026 to 9.74 in 2027 [7][7] - **Rabbit Baby (002043.SZ)**: The company is expected to see steady growth in the decorative board industry, with projected EPS growth from 1.05 in 2026 to 1.15 in 2027 [7][7] - **Wanhua Chemical (600309.SH)**: The company is expected to benefit from improving MDI and TDI market conditions, with projected EPS growth from 5.13 in 2026 to 5.79 in 2027 [7][7] - **Tianfu Communication (300394.SZ)**: The company is positioned to benefit from the demand for optical modules, with projected EPS growth from 4.10 in 2026 to 5.38 in 2027 [7][7] - **Shaanxi Tourism (603402.SH)**: The company is expected to see growth driven by its core tourism operations, with projected EPS growth from 6.65 in 2026 to 7.61 in 2027 [7][7]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a collective decline on February 2, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 2.48%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 2.69%, and the ChiNext Index by 2.46% [12] - The total trading volume across the three markets was 26,069.20 billion, a decrease of 2,558.2 billion from the previous day, with over 4,600 stocks declining [12][14] - The smart grid sector showed resilience, with several stocks such as Tongguang Cable and Baobian Electric reaching their daily limit [12] Sector Performance - The white wine sector rebounded, driven by rising consumption and increasing prices, with Moutai's wholesale price rising by 160 yuan to 1,770 yuan per bottle [12] - The commodity futures market saw significant declines, with precious metals and energy sectors experiencing sharp drops, including a more than 15% decline in gold [13] - The electronic industry faced the largest net outflow of funds, with Zhongji Xuchuang leading the outflow [25][26] Investment Insights - The current market conditions suggest a potential shift in investment styles, with discussions around inflation recovery and corporate profit recovery gaining traction [11] - The relative PE-TTM ratio of the CSI 1000 compared to the CSI 300 is at 3.55, indicating a high valuation level [11] - The market is characterized by crowded trades in certain sectors, necessitating significant fundamental changes for excess returns, while less crowded sectors may yield better returns with minor improvements [11] Key Stocks and Funds - Notable net inflows were observed in the electric power equipment, banking, and food and beverage sectors, while the electronic and non-ferrous metal sectors saw significant outflows [26] - Major stocks with net inflows included Xinye Technology and West Materials, while Zhongji Xuchuang and Zhaoyi Innovation faced the largest outflows [26][30]

Core Viewpoint - The report from China Galaxy Securities indicates that leading optical module companies, such as Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng, have released performance forecasts for 2025, with most companies expecting a growth of over 50% in their earnings, although foreign exchange losses may impact the timing of earnings release [1][2]. Group 1: Performance Forecasts - Companies like Xinyi Sheng are expected to achieve a net profit of 9.4-9.9 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 231.24%-248.86%, while Zhongji Xuchuang anticipates a net profit of 9.8-11.8 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 89.5%-128.17% [2]. - In the latest quarter, Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng reported record high profits, while Cambridge Technology faced a foreign exchange loss of approximately 96.05 million yuan due to funds retained in Hong Kong dollars after its IPO [2]. Group 2: Market Trends and Demand - The domestic demand for optical modules is expected to increase significantly in the first year of the 14th Five-Year Plan, driven by the upgrade from 400G to 800G/1.6T modules and the rising computational power needs from AI applications [3]. - The overseas market remains robust, with major cloud companies expected to exceed capital expenditure forecasts for 2026, leading to an accelerated demand for high-speed optical modules [3]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The optical communication sector is currently undervalued, with supply constraints anticipated to be a major bottleneck in 2026, despite the increasing global market share of Chinese optical module manufacturers [4]. - Companies such as Zhongji Xuchuang (300308.SZ), Xinyi Sheng (300502.SZ), and others in the optical module and device sectors are recommended for investment due to their strong positioning and growth potential [4].

Group 1: Macro Insights - The report highlights that the recent volatility in gold and silver prices is primarily driven by market momentum reversals, with silver attracting high leverage and speculative funds since November 2025 [2][5] - The report anticipates that after the appointment of the new Federal Reserve Chairman, there will be more interest rate cuts than the market expects, with short-term U.S. Treasury yields likely to decline [2][4] - The report notes that the recent decline in the manufacturing PMI does not indicate a weakening economy, as it reflects a temporary fluctuation rather than a downward trend [10] Group 2: Commodity Market Analysis - The report indicates that the recent crash in silver prices has led to liquidity risks that may spread to other commodities, particularly in the non-ferrous metals sector [5][6] - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring the support levels for gold prices, particularly the 60-day moving average, which is currently at $4,400 per ounce [5] - The report suggests that the Shanghai Futures Exchange has implemented measures to manage the risk of a one-sided market in silver futures [5] Group 3: Equity Market Outlook - The report predicts a rebound in the A-share market following the Spring Festival, driven by positive sentiment from performance forecasts and new developments in sectors like AI applications and commercial aerospace [6][10] - It advises a balanced ETF allocation in domestic equities, reflecting a cautious yet optimistic outlook for the market [11] Group 4: Bond Market Perspective - The report notes that the bond market is expected to see increased buying activity due to risk aversion and expectations of monetary easing, with 10-year yields projected to decline to around 1.80% [7][10] - It highlights that the recent adjustments in risk appetite have created trading opportunities in government bonds as a hedge against stock market volatility [4][7]

Core Viewpoint - The data indicates significant outflows of capital from various stocks, with notable declines in share prices across multiple sectors, suggesting a bearish sentiment in the market. Group 1: Major Stocks with Capital Outflows - Zhongji Xuchuang experienced the highest capital outflow of 3.861 billion, with a share price decline of 8.94% [1][2] - BlueFocus Media saw a capital outflow of 2.275 billion, with a decrease of 8.4% in its stock price [1][2] - Zijin Mining had an outflow of 1.891 billion, reflecting an 8.79% drop in its share price [1][2] - Industrial Fulian faced an outflow of 1.839 billion, with a 3.5% decline in stock value [1][2] - Zhaoyi Innovation reported a capital outflow of 1.673 billion, with a significant drop of 10% in its share price [1][2] Group 2: Additional Stocks with Notable Outflows - Shannon Microelectronics had an outflow of 1.520 billion, with a steep decline of 12.36% [1][2] - BYD experienced a capital outflow of 1.374 billion, with a 4.22% decrease in its stock price [1][2] - Baiwei Storage saw an outflow of 1.183 billion, with a decline of 10.35% [1][2] - Jiangbolong had an outflow of 1.150 billion, with a 10.77% drop in its share price [1][2] - Northern Rare Earth reported an outflow of 1.027 billion, with a 7.62% decline [1][2] Group 3: Other Stocks with Capital Outflows - China Aluminum faced an outflow of 1.016 billion, with a stock price decrease of 9.98% [1][2] - Tianfu Communication had an outflow of 0.977 billion, with a 4% decline in its share price [1][3] - SMIC reported an outflow of 0.953 billion, with a 4.81% drop [1][3] - iFlytek experienced an outflow of 0.797 billion, with a 4.36% decline [1][3] - Wanhua Chemical had an outflow of 0.741 billion, with an 8.68% decrease [1][3]

Core Viewpoint - The performance of the optical module sector is catalyzed by the strong earnings forecasts from companies like "Zhongjixuchuang" and "Xinye". The newly listed ChiNext ETF, Huatai Fuhua (159247), experienced a decline of nearly 2% after an initial surge, with significant trading volume and net subscriptions indicating active market interest [1][2]. Group 1: Company Earnings Forecasts - Zhongjixuchuang expects a net profit increase of 89.50% to 128.17% for 2025, driven by strong demand for computing infrastructure and improved operational efficiency [2]. - Xinye anticipates a net profit of 99 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 248.86%, with a quarterly growth forecast of 29% to 50% [2]. - Tianfu Communication projects a net profit of 21.5 billion yuan, up 60% year-on-year, benefiting from the rapid development of the AI industry and global data center construction [2]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The optical module market is expected to grow significantly, with a CAGR of 24% from 2022 to 2028, and 80% from 2028 to 2033, driven by advancements in AI and the evolution of data center architectures [5]. - The ChiNext ETF's index is heavily weighted towards sectors such as power equipment (29%), communication (22%), and electronics (16%), reflecting the ongoing industry upgrades and the impact of emerging technologies [3][18]. - The "anti-involution" policies have positively influenced the photovoltaic sector, leading to price stabilization and a focus on eliminating outdated production capacity [10][11]. Group 3: Market Activity - The ChiNext ETF Huatai Fuhua (159247) saw a trading volume exceeding 1 billion yuan, with a net subscription of 16 million units, indicating strong investor interest [1]. - The top ten constituent stocks of the ChiNext index account for nearly 54% of the index's weight, highlighting a concentrated investment in leading companies within their respective sectors [19][20]. - The average daily trading volume for the ChiNext index constituents reached 1,532 billion yuan in 2025, representing about 33% of the total trading volume on the ChiNext board [25].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of the Telecom ETF Huatai (560300), which opened down by 0.47% at 2.100 yuan on February 2 [1] - Major holdings within the ETF showed mixed performance, with China Mobile down 3.40%, China Unicom down 2.35%, and China Telecom down 3.33%, while China Satcom increased by 0.79% [1] - The ETF's performance benchmark is the CSI Telecom Theme Index return, managed by Huatai Fund Management Co., with a return of 110.98% since its inception on December 5, 2023, and a 3.69% return over the past month [1] Group 2 - The article provides specific stock performance details, indicating that Zhongji Xuchuang fell by 2.16%, Yinzhijie decreased by 0.70%, while Xinyi Sheng rose by 9.00%, ZTE Corporation fell by 0.73%, Tianfu Communication increased by 0.54%, and Zhongtian Technology rose by 0.67% [1] - The fund manager is identified as Wei Lizhu, emphasizing the management aspect of the ETF [1]

Group 1 - The A-share market continued to decline, with most computing power hardware stocks experiencing fluctuations after a high opening, including major ETFs like Huaxia [1] - The "Yizhongtian" combination (Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, Tianfu Communication) disclosed their 2025 annual performance forecasts, showing significant profit growth driven by investments in computing power infrastructure and strong demand for high-speed optical modules [1] - Zhongji Xuchuang expects a net profit of 9.8 billion to 11.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 89.50% to 128.17%, while Xinyi Sheng anticipates a net profit of 9.4 billion to 9.9 billion, a substantial increase of 231.24% to 248.86% [1] Group 2 - The optical module index rose by 10.07% last week and 9.08% in January, indicating strong growth in the AI industry and server revenue [2] - Zhongji Xuchuang's strong performance forecast reflects robust demand for global computing power infrastructure, positioning the company to benefit as an early adopter of 1.6T technology [2] - Domestic optical module exports have decreased due to local manufacturers establishing factories overseas, but demand from overseas cloud vendors is expected to remain strong, allowing domestic firms to capture more market share [2]

2月2日，天孚通信跌5.04%，截至发稿，报235.90元/股，成交100.02亿元，换手率5.18%，总市值 1833.92亿元。 截至发稿，独孤南薰累计任职时间9年304天，现任基金资产总规模1.2亿元，任职期间最佳基金回报 72.78%， 任职期间最差基金回报-7.03%。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 本文基于第三方数据库自动发布，不代表新浪财经观点，任何在本 文出现的信息均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建议。如有出入请以实际公告为准。如有疑问，请联系 biz@staff.sina.com.cn。 责任编辑：小浪快报 资料显示，苏州天孚光通信股份有限公司位于江苏省苏州市高新区长江路695号，成立日期2005年7月20 日，上市日期2015年2月17日，公司主营业务涉及光无源器件的研发设计、高精密制造与销售业务。主 营业务收入构成为：光通信元器件98.91%，其他1.09%。 从基金十大重仓股角度 数据显示，山证资管旗下1只基金重仓天孚通信。山证资管策略精选混合A（003659）四季度增持1.41万 股，持有股数3.51万股，占基金净值比例为7.44%，位居第三大重仓股。根据测算，今日浮亏损失约 43.9 ...