Group 1 - The technology sector has seen significant growth, with two "doubling funds" emerging in the second half of the year and multiple products increasing by over 90% [1] - Key stocks contributing to fund net value include leading optical module companies such as Xinyi Technology (300502), Zhongji Xuchuang (300308), and Tianfu Communication (300394) [1] - Notable performers this year include Shenghong Technology (300476), which has increased over 6 times, and Yingweike (002837), which has doubled in the second half of the year, appearing in many high-performing funds' portfolios [1] Group 2 - Fund managers have raised concerns about risks in the optical module sector, noting that many doubling funds' key stocks are at historically high price-to-earnings ratios, indicating potential short-term correction risks [1] - The frequent switching of market hotspots this year may lead to increased volatility in product performance if the held sectors enter a correction phase [1] - Issues related to scale and liquidity are also highlighted, as the rapid expansion of some doubling funds may complicate asset allocation and limit the adjustment space for key stocks, potentially restricting future operational flexibility [1]

Core Viewpoint - The technology sector has seen a significant rise in the second half of the year, with two "doubling funds" emerging and several products increasing by over 90% [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The CPO (Optical Module) sector, led by companies like Xinyi Sheng, Zhongji Xuchuang, and Tianfu Communication, has shown remarkable stock performance, with increases of 175%, 189%, and 136% respectively from July 1 to the present [2][3]. - Two funds, Chang'an Xinrui Technology Pioneer and Yongying Technology Smart Selection, have achieved returns of 101.49% and 101.13% respectively since July 1, contributing to the emergence of multiple funds with over 90% gains [2]. Group 2: Fund Manager Strategies - Fund managers displayed varied investment strategies in the first half of the year, with some maintaining positions in the optical module sector while others exited early and re-entered later [4]. - The fund "Zhonghang Opportunity Navigation," established in 2023, has consistently held the "easy Zhongtian" stocks in its top ten holdings, resulting in a 97% increase in the second half of the year [4]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - The optical module industry has shown strong performance due to technological upgrades and the transfer of production capacity from Western manufacturers to China, leading to significant profit growth for leading companies [3][6]. - The CPO sector is expected to enter a critical validation and initial mass production phase between 2025 and 2026, with full penetration anticipated after 2029 [3]. Group 4: Valuation and Future Trends - Despite the recent surge in stock prices, some fund managers have indicated potential risks due to high price-to-earnings ratios and market volatility [6][7]. - Long-term growth in the optical module sector is expected to remain robust, with head companies showing strong earnings capabilities and valuations aligning with future growth potential [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant rise in the technology sector, particularly in the optical module segment, driven by hardware investment trends related to artificial intelligence [1][2][3] - The stocks of leading companies in the optical module sector, such as Xinyi Sheng (新易盛), Zhongji Xuchuang (中际旭创), and Tianfu Communication (天孚通信), have shown remarkable performance, with respective increases of 175%, 189%, and 136% since July 1 [2][3] - Several public funds have benefited from this surge, with two funds achieving over 100% returns, and nine others exceeding 90% returns since July [2][3] Group 2 - The optical module industry has demonstrated strong performance, with leading companies experiencing significant year-on-year profit growth, attributed to technological upgrades and the transition of production capacity to China [3][4] - Fund managers have exhibited varied investment strategies, with some maintaining positions in the optical module sector while others have adjusted their holdings based on market conditions [4][5] - The current phase for the optical module sector is seen as a critical period for validation and initial mass production, with expectations for significant growth from 2025 to 2028 [3][6] Group 3 - Some fund managers have expressed concerns about the risks associated with the optical module sector, noting high price-to-earnings ratios and potential volatility due to frequent shifts in market focus [7][8] - Despite short-term risks, the long-term outlook for the optical module sector remains positive, with expectations of continued high growth rates and strong performance from leading companies [8]

在近期科技板块加速上升的势头里，仅下半年以来就已诞生了2只"翻倍基"，还有多只产品同期涨幅超过了九成。 个股中，光模块龙头新易盛、中际旭创和天孚通信持续上攻的涨幅为基金净值贡献良多，此外，年内涨超6倍的胜宏科技 和下半年翻倍的英维克等也出现在多只绩优基金的重仓名单中。 值得一提的是，下半年敢于重仓光模块并净值涨幅居前的基金，在上半年表现各异。有基金经理选择"从一而终"坚守相 关板块，也有基金经理勇于"认错"，承认此前的减仓"草率"并及时加仓。 下半年已诞生两只"翻倍基" 复盘下半年至今的A股行情，人工智能带来的硬件投资热潮更为火爆。细分领域中，以"易中天"（新易盛、中际旭创和天 孚通信）为主导的CPO（光模块）更是其中翘楚。 数据显示，仅7月1日至今的两个多月时间里，上述三只个股涨幅分别达到了175%、189%以及136%。因此，重仓这几只 个股乃至CPO板块的基金也受益匪浅。 据研报统计，截至二季度末，公募基金重点加仓光模块/光器件板块，个股方面，公募基金持仓股份量增加前十依次为新 易盛、中际旭创、长芯博创、仕佳光子、华测导航、天孚通信、永鼎股份、中天科技、德科立、灿勤科技等。 因此，多只公募基金下半年亦有 ...

证券研究报告 |行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 09 21 年 月 日 通信 OCS：光网络的下一个"战场" 光学电路交换（Optical Circuit Switching,OCS）技术代表光网络从传统"连接" 功能向智能"交换"功能的战略演进，作为解决传统电交换带宽瓶颈和功耗问题 的关键路径，正成为光厂商竞相布局的新战场。 【OCS 技术概述：光域直接交换的实现】 光路交换机（OCS）：不同于传统交换机，直接光路交换，无需做光电转换。 OCS 的设计理念是光纤信号进入交换机后，不再进行光电转换，而是通过光 信号的波分复用、交叉连接等进行转发等操作，光电转换在服务器端进行； 同时配合 3D 环状的网络拓扑结构，OCS 有效降低了通信硬件成本和功耗。光 交换的优势包括：低时延、低网络代价、低硬件成本、路由可重配、易于集 群布局等。 光交换有多种实现技术，主要包括以下几种： 【发展现状：头部厂商积极抢占制高点】 随着 OCS 技术的潜力得到广泛认可，光通信厂商纷纷将其视为新的"演武场"， 积极布局备战，基于自身技术优势选择不同的切入路径。 增持（维持） 行业走势 0% 28% 56% 84% 11 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the A-share market, particularly focusing on the "Yizhongtian" stocks, which are heavily influenced by AI computing power and have seen significant price increases. The article raises questions about whether these stocks are overvalued or undervalued and how investors should respond to the high valuations [1][2]. Industry Trends - The competition in AI computing power is not only about GPU capabilities but also about data transmission efficiency, where optical modules play a crucial role. The article compares GPUs to top chefs and optical modules to waitstaff, emphasizing the importance of efficient data transfer [2]. - The demand for optical modules is expected to rise due to the rapid development of AI, leading to upgrades in transmission speeds. The transition from 400Gb/s to 800Gb/s optical modules is already reflected in the performance of "Yizhongtian" stocks [3][5]. Performance Metrics - In the first half of 2025, the revenue and profit growth of key companies in the optical module sector were significant. For instance, Xinyi Sheng reported a revenue of 10.44 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 282.64%, while Zhongji Xuchuang's revenue was 14.79 billion yuan, up 36.95% [4]. - The sales volume of optical modules also showed strong growth, with Zhongji Xuchuang selling 9.05 million units, a 45.96% increase, and Xinyi Sheng selling 6.95 million units, a 112.53% increase [9]. Capital Expenditure Trends - Major tech companies are significantly increasing their capital expenditures, with a 69% year-on-year increase in Q2 2025, totaling $87.4 billion. This trend is expected to continue, with projected capital expenditures for major cloud providers reaching $333.8 billion in 2025 [10][11]. - Chinese internet giants are also ramping up their capital expenditures, with a 99.38% year-on-year increase in Q1 2025, totaling 55.01 billion yuan [11]. Future Projections - The market for 800G and 1.6T optical modules is expected to grow rapidly, with predictions indicating that the overall market size will exceed $22 billion by 2030 [5]. - By 2026, the performance of 1.6T optical modules is anticipated to start reflecting in the financial results of companies in the sector [8]. Valuation Considerations - Analysts have incorporated the expected performance from 1.6T optical modules and increased capital expenditures into their 2026 earnings forecasts, predicting significant profit growth for companies like Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng [16]. - The article suggests that the current market environment may allow for higher valuations, with a reasonable price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for "Yizhongtian" stocks estimated between 30-40 times, potentially increasing to 40-50 times if liquidity improves [18][19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for the company [1][6] Core Insights - The company has experienced significant growth in its active business segment, with a revenue increase of 57.8% year-on-year, reaching 2.46 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 [1] - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders rose by 37.5% year-on-year to 900 million yuan in the same period [1] - The active business is expected to continue its growth trajectory, driven by strong demand for high-speed optical modules and the ongoing expansion of production capacity in Thailand [2][3] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company's revenue from passive business reached 860 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.8% [2] - The company's revenue for Q2 2025 was 1.51 billion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 83.3% and a year-on-year growth of 60.0% [1] - The net profit for Q2 2025 was 560 million yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 49.6% and a year-on-year increase of 66.3% [1] Business Development - The company is positioned as a core supplier for NVIDIA's CPO (Coherent Photonic Optics) project, which is expected to enhance its competitive edge in the active business segment [3] - The company has established a vertically integrated business model that is anticipated to further increase the proportion of active business in its overall revenue [5] - The domestic revenue for the company in the first half of 2025 was 530 million yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 71.7% [5] Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The profit forecast for the company has been adjusted upwards, with expected net profits of 2.04 billion yuan, 3.48 billion yuan, and 4.52 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6] - The report indicates that the closing price on September 18, 2025, corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 68.5 for 2025, 40.2 for 2026, and 31.0 for 2027 [6]

Group 1 - Tianfu Communication's stock increased by 5.08% on September 19, reaching a price of 188.50 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 3.69 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 2.53%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 146.54 billion CNY [1] - Suzhou Tianfu Optical Communication Co., Ltd. was established on July 20, 2005, and went public on February 17, 2015. The company's main business involves the research, design, high-precision manufacturing, and sales of optical passive devices, with 98.91% of its revenue coming from optical communication components [1] Group 2 - Dachen Fund has a significant holding in Tianfu Communication, with its Dachen Technology Innovation Mixed A Fund (008988) holding 234,600 shares, accounting for 5.71% of the fund's net value, making it the sixth-largest holding. The estimated floating profit today is approximately 2.14 million CNY [2] - The Dachen Technology Innovation Mixed A Fund was established on April 29, 2020, with a current size of 157 million CNY. It has achieved a return of 104.84% this year, ranking 52 out of 8,172 in its category, and a return of 157.06% over the past year, ranking 68 out of 7,980 [2] - The fund manager, Guo Weiling, has been in position for 4 years and 238 days, with the total asset size of the fund being 328 million CNY. The best return during his tenure is 60.37%, while the worst return is -20.74% [2]

同类比较看，截至9月18日，创业板人工智能ETF（159363）最新规模超44亿元，近1个月日均成交额超 11亿元，在跟踪创业板人工智能指数的6只ETF中高居第一。 热门ETF方面，同类规模最大、流动性突出的创业板人工智能ETF（159363）场内价格涨超2%冲击四连 阳，领涨同类AI主题类ETF，实时成交额超3亿元。 | | | 分时 多日 1分 5分 15分 30分 · | | | | | F9 盘前盘后 婴加 九转 面线 工具 @ 2 > | | | 创业板人工智能ETF华宝 | 159363 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 159363[创业版人工程制ETF华志] 09:50 价 0.882 图片 0.016(1.85%) 436 0.878 蓝 -- | | | | 0.882 | | +0.016 +1.85% | | | | | | | | | | | SZSE CNY 9:50:27 交易中 | | 27 8 * | | | | | | | | | | ...

Group 1 - The communication equipment sector showed strong performance at the beginning of trading, with companies like Changfei Optical Fiber and Dekeli reaching new highs during the session [1] - Dingxin Communications hit the daily limit up, indicating significant investor interest and confidence in the stock [1] - Other companies such as Hengtong Optic-Electric, Tianfu Communication, Fenghuo Communication, Sega Technology, and Changxin Bochuang also experienced gains, reflecting a broader positive trend in the industry [1]