Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 1.659 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.56%, and a net profit of 182 million yuan, recovering from a net loss of 11 million yuan in the same period last year [1] - The domestic market shows strong growth in self-owned brands, while the agency business continues to shrink, leading to a decline in domestic revenue [2] - The gross margin improved in 2024, but profitability faced pressure due to increased marketing expenses related to the New Zealand grain project [3] - The company is adjusting its profit forecasts for 2025-2026 due to uncertainties related to tariff impacts, projecting net profits of 200 million yuan and 240 million yuan respectively [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 1.659 billion yuan, with a significant increase in self-owned brand revenue, while agency brand revenue declined [2] - The gross margin for 2024 was 29.42%, with a notable improvement in the first quarter of 2025 [3] - The net profit for 2024 was 182 million yuan, a recovery from the previous year's loss, with projections for future profits adjusted downwards [4] Market Dynamics - The domestic market is performing well for self-owned brands, while the agency business is contracting, impacting overall revenue [2] - The company is diversifying its overseas revenue sources to mitigate tariff impacts, particularly in the context of its operations in Vietnam and Cambodia [2] Profitability and Cost Management - The gross margin for 2024 was 29.42%, with a year-on-year increase in the first quarter of 2025 attributed to improved margins in self-owned brands [3] - Marketing expenses increased due to the upcoming large-scale production of the New Zealand grain project, affecting overall profitability [3] Future Outlook - The company has revised its profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026, now expecting net profits of 200 million yuan and 240 million yuan, respectively, due to tariff uncertainties [4] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 0.80 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 19 [5]

Group 1: Swine Industry - The domestic supply and demand for pigs is expected to improve marginally by Q2 2025, with pig prices supported and entering a phase of gradual upward movement. External factors such as tariff-driven increases in feed raw material prices and higher costs for imported meat are also contributing positively to pig prices. The swine sector is highlighted as a defensive asset amid macroeconomic shocks, reinforcing investment logic. Recommended stocks include Wens Foodstuff Group, Muyuan Foods, and Juxing Agriculture [4][86]. - In 2024, China's pork production is projected to reach 56.75 million tons, accounting for 49% of global production, with consumption at 57.95 million tons, representing 50% of global consumption. This positions China as the world's largest pork producer and consumer [13][15]. - The average price of pork in 2024 is estimated at 16.8 yuan per kilogram, reflecting an increase of 11.8% year-on-year. The swine farming market size is expected to reach 1.5 trillion yuan, up 11.2% year-on-year [17][32]. Group 2: Poultry Industry - The demand for white chicken remains resilient despite uncertainties from U.S.-China tariff policies and avian influenza outbreaks. The consumption of white feather broilers is expected to improve marginally, with recommended stocks including San Nong Development and He Feng Co [5][94]. - In 2024, the total output of meat chickens in China is projected to reach 14.84 billion, with white feather broilers accounting for 60.85% of this figure. The output of white feather broilers is expected to increase by 2.2% year-on-year [99]. Group 3: Animal Health - The market for piglets and poultry chicks is stable, with a solid demand for poultry chicks supported by increasing poultry farming. The market for ruminant and pet vaccines is also expected to remain robust, with recommended stocks including Bio-Group, Kexin Biology, and Pulaike [6]. Group 4: Planting and Seeds - The focus on food security is emphasized, with companies involved in high-yield genetically modified soybeans likely to benefit from the ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions. The third batch of genetically modified corn varieties is expected to be approved for planting, which may increase the area under cultivation [7]. Group 5: Feed Industry - The recovery of the swine sector is expected to boost domestic demand for feed, while overseas markets present new growth opportunities. The demand for pig feed is anticipated to rebound as pig farming profitability improves and pig stocks gradually recover [8]. Group 6: Pet Industry - The upcoming shopping festivals are expected to drive demand for pet food, with domestic brands likely to gain market share due to increased tariffs on imported high-end products. Recommended stocks include Guibao Pet, Zhongchong Co, and Petty Co [6].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The agriculture industry achieved a revenue of 11,498.20 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 3.68%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders rose to 466.39 billion yuan, an increase of 806.55% [4][14] - In Q1 2025, the industry reported a revenue of 2,706.77 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 6.79%, and a net profit of 133.13 billion yuan, up 795.07% year-on-year [4][14] - The profitability indicators showed improvement, with the gross profit margin at 12.91% in Q1 2025, up 5.74 percentage points year-on-year, and the net profit margin at 5.16%, an increase of 6.18 percentage points year-on-year [4][18] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - The livestock sector saw significant year-on-year profit growth, with poultry farming, livestock farming, feed, and pet food sectors showing net profit increases of 1,109.96%, 389.01%, 230.88%, and 75.67% respectively in 2024 [5][20] - In Q1 2025, the net profit growth rates for feed, poultry farming, livestock farming, aquaculture, animal health, and pet food sectors were 962.42%, 588.35%, 254.62%, 117.28%, and 21.27% respectively [5][20] Weekly Perspective - The swine sector shows low-positioning value, with the recovery of profitability and consumer demand boosting the sector. Recommended stocks include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others [6][24] - The feed sector benefits from the post-cycle of poultry and livestock, with strong overseas demand supporting prices. Recommended stocks include Haida Group and New Hope Liuhe [6][24] - The pet sector is experiencing a rise in domestic brands due to consumption upgrades and tariff barriers, with recommended stocks including Guai Bao Pet, Zhong Chong Co., and Petty Co. [6][26] Market Performance - During the week of April 28 to May 2, the agriculture index underperformed the market by 0.08 percentage points, with the agriculture index down 0.56% [7][27] - The feed sector led the gains among sub-sectors, with individual stocks like Ruip Biotech, New Sai Co., and Daodaoquan leading the market [7][32] Price Tracking - As of May 2, the average price of live pigs was 14.84 yuan/kg, down 0.11 yuan/kg from the previous week, while the average price of white strip meat rose by 0.11 yuan/kg to 19.2 yuan/kg [8][37] - The average price of beef increased to 69.03 yuan/kg, reflecting a 0.74% rise [8][43] - The average price of bass rose to 35.30 yuan/kg, up 3.82% from the previous week [8][48]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The industry experienced a decline in revenue in 2024 but saw a significant increase in net profit, indicating improved profitability. The first quarter of 2025 showed a revenue growth of 6.79% year-on-year and a net profit increase of 795.07% [4][14] - The livestock sector, particularly poultry and pet food, demonstrated high growth rates in net profit, with poultry farming seeing a 1109.96% increase in 2024 and a 588.35% increase in Q1 2025 [5][20] - The report highlights the recovery of the pig cycle and the upward trend in pig prices, suggesting a favorable outlook for the livestock sector [6][24] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - In 2024, the agriculture industry achieved a revenue of 11,498.20 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 3.68%, while net profit reached 466.39 billion yuan, an increase of 806.55%. In Q1 2025, revenue was 2,706.77 billion yuan, up 6.79%, and net profit was 133.13 billion yuan, up 795.07% [4][14] Weekly Viewpoint - The pig sector shows low valuation and potential for recovery, supported by consumption revival. Recommended stocks include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff, and others. The feed sector benefits from strong domestic and overseas demand [6][24] Market Performance - During the week of April 28 to May 2, the agriculture index underperformed the market by 0.08 percentage points, with the agriculture index down 0.56% [7][27] Price Tracking - As of May 2, the average price of live pigs was 14.84 yuan/kg, a slight decrease from the previous week. The average price of piglets was 36.88 yuan/kg, also down slightly [8][37]

Core Insights - The freeze-dried food industry in China is part of the agricultural and agricultural product processing sector, with upstream focusing on raw materials and freeze-drying equipment, midstream on food freeze-drying processing, and downstream on wholesalers, supermarkets, convenience stores, and food companies [1] Industry Overview - The freeze-dried food industry is primarily concentrated in Shandong and Jiangsu, with additional presence in Anhui, Henan, and Fujian [3] - Upstream raw material companies are mainly located in Xinjiang, Gansu, Shandong, and Hubei, while upstream refrigeration equipment companies are found in Beijing and Shanghai. Midstream freeze-dried food companies are predominantly in Shandong and Fujian [6] Company Performance - In the first half of 2024, the revenue from pet snacks for Guai Bao Pet reached 1.194 billion yuan. The gross margin varies significantly among listed companies, with Lai Yi Fen's candy and fruit products gross margin exceeding 45%, while Hao Xiang Ni's health-preserving products have a gross margin of only 11.50% [7][8] - The number of stores for Lai Yi Fen is the highest among listed companies, totaling 3,472 [7] Company Financials | Company Name | Revenue (Billion Yuan) | Gross Margin (%) | Other Indicators | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Hao Xiang Ni (002582) | 0.35 | 11.50% | Store Count: 390 | | Lai Yi Fen (603777) | 3.41 | 45.18% | Store Count: 3,472 | | Liang Pin Pu Zi (603719) | 6.67 | 33.15% | Store Count: 2,814 | | San Zhi Song Shu (300783) | 0.35 | 21.32% | Store Count: 415 | | Guai Bao Pet (301498) | 1.194 | 39.19% | Pet Feed Sales: 176,000 tons | | Lu Si Co. (832419) | 0.215 | 26.41% | | | Zhong Chong Co. (002891) | 1.136 | 25.45% | Pet Food and Supplies Sales: 99,600 tons | | Pei Ti Co. (300673) | 0.190 | 29.87% | Pet Food and Others Sales: 30,100 tons [8] Recent Developments - Since 2024, representative companies in the freeze-dried food industry have engaged in strategic partnerships, established new companies, and built R&D centers [11]

Core Insights - Petty Co. reported a revenue of 1.659 billion yuan for 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 17.6%, and achieved a net profit of 182 million yuan, reversing previous losses [1] - The gross margin for 2024 improved to 29.4%, an increase of over 10 percentage points, attributed to product structure optimization and enhanced capacity utilization in overseas bases [1] - The company experienced fluctuations in quarterly performance, with Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 revenues of 336 million yuan (down 32.1% year-on-year) and 329 million yuan (down 14.4% year-on-year), respectively, influenced by customer order volatility [1] Business Segments - Revenue from various business segments in 2024 included: - Pet skin chew toys: 505 million yuan (+19.1%) - Plant-based chew toys: 608 million yuan (+43.7%) - Nutritional meat snacks: 403 million yuan (+26.6%) - Staple food: 118 million yuan (-43.6%) [1] - The Cambodian factory significantly improved its profitability, achieving a net profit of 51 million yuan with a profit margin of 14.3% in 2024, compared to a loss in 2023 [2] - The New Zealand facility has commenced production of 40,000 tons of high-quality staple food, with expected capacity release of 20%-30% in 2025 [2] Market Strategy - The company has successfully shifted nearly all U.S. customer orders to Southeast Asian factories to mitigate tariff fluctuations, leveraging its global production layout [2] - In the domestic market, Petty Co. achieved sales revenue of 288 million yuan in 2024, primarily driven by its own brands, which saw a 33% revenue growth, with the Jueyan brand growing by 52% [2] - The gross margin for domestic sales reached 31.7%, reflecting an improvement of 8.04 percentage points, indicating enhanced profitability [2] Financial Forecast - Revenue projections for Petty Co. from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 1.914 billion yuan, 2.163 billion yuan, and 2.387 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 15.34%, 13.04%, and 10.37%, respectively [3] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 199 million yuan, 221 million yuan, and 251 million yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 9.16%, 11.15%, and 13.53% [3] - The projected price-to-earnings ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 18.85x, 16.96x, and 14.94x, respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [4] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 1.659 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 17.6%, and a net profit of 182 million yuan, marking a return to profitability [1] - The gross margin improved to 29.4% in 2024, an increase of over 10 percentage points year-on-year, driven by product mix optimization and enhanced capacity utilization in overseas bases [1] - The company plans to focus on its proprietary brands and create blockbuster products to drive growth in 2025 [3] Financial Performance - In 2024, revenue from various segments included: 505 million yuan from pet skin chews (+19.1%), 608 million yuan from plant-based chews (+43.7%), 403 million yuan from nutritious meat snacks (+26.6%), and 118 million yuan from staple and wet food (-43.6%) [1] - Quarterly performance showed a revenue of 336 million yuan in Q4 2024 (down 32.1% year-on-year) and 329 million yuan in Q1 2025 (down 14.4% year-on-year), with net profits of 27 million yuan and 22 million yuan respectively [1] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 1.914 billion yuan, 2.163 billion yuan, and 2.387 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.34%, 13.04%, and 10.37% respectively [4] - Expected net profits for the same period are 199 million yuan, 221 million yuan, and 251 million yuan, with growth rates of 9.16%, 11.15%, and 13.53% respectively [4] Market Position and Strategy - The company reported domestic sales of 288 million yuan in 2024, primarily driven by proprietary brands, which saw a 33% increase in revenue, with the Jueyan brand growing by 52% [3] - The overseas capacity utilization remains high, with factories in Vietnam operating at full capacity and significant improvements in profitability from the Cambodia factory [2][9]

Group 1: Company Performance and Strategy - The company achieved a 33% increase in revenue from its own brand in the domestic market in 2024 [2] - The brand "Jueyan" maintained a leading position in the pet snack market [2] - The company’s gross profit margin reached 31.72%, an increase of 8.04% compared to the previous year [5] Group 2: Production and Sustainability Initiatives - The company’s production capacity in Vietnam remains high, with the Cambodian factory now profitable [3] - The Wenzhou production base achieved carbon neutrality, becoming the first zero-carbon digital smart factory in China's pet industry [3] - The company launched a public welfare program that has successfully helped over 20,000 students improve their mental health [3] Group 3: Marketing and Brand Development - The company focuses on brand building and channel expansion, with significant advertising investments [4] - The "Jueyan" brand saw a 52% increase in business revenue in 2024, with plans to enhance market share in 2025 [8] - The company plans to introduce new high-quality and differentiated staple food products in 2025 [6] Group 4: Challenges and Responses - The company is actively managing raw material costs and supply stability through local operations and inventory management [5] - The impact of U.S. tariffs on overseas business is mitigated by diversifying revenue sources and increasing domestic market share [7]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Increase" [5] Core Views - The pet industry shows strong performance with leading companies reporting significant revenue growth and an increasing share of domestic business. The trend of brand localization and premiumization is evident, with 2024 revenue growth for leading companies such as Guibao Pet, Zhongchong Co., and Petty Co. at 21.22%, 19.15%, and 17.56% respectively, while net profit growth is 45.68%, 68.89%, and 1743% respectively [1][12] - In Q1 2025, Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co. reported revenue growth of 34.82% and 25.41% respectively, while Petty Co. experienced a decline of 14.4% [1][12] - The domestic business of Zhongchong Co. grew by 30.26%, accounting for 31.67% of total revenue, while Guibao Pet's domestic business grew by 24%, making up 67.71% of its revenue [1][12] - The self-owned brand revenue of Guibao Pet reached 3.545 billion yuan, growing by 29% year-on-year, representing 67.6% of its total revenue [1][12] Summary by Sections Pet Industry - Leading pet companies reported strong growth in both revenue and net profit, with significant increases in domestic business and self-owned brand revenue [1][12] - Douyin's sales data for March 2025 shows a sales revenue of 818 million yuan, up 24.32% year-on-year, and a sales volume of 18.004 million, up 34.12% year-on-year, indicating a positive growth trend for top domestic brands [2][13] Livestock Farming - The national price for lean meat pigs is 14.81 yuan/kg, down 0.3% from the previous week, with a focus on low-cost, high-growth companies such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs [3][14] - The average price for white feather chickens is 7.47 yuan/kg, down 0.4%, and the average price for chicken products is 8.9 yuan/kg, down 0.6% [14][28] - The price for meat chicken seedlings is 2.85 yuan each, down 4% from the previous week [14][26] Agricultural Products - The approval of genetically modified varieties is expected to lead to commercial sales, with potential growth for industry companies as prices and profit distribution are confirmed [14] - The fluctuation of agricultural product prices is increasing, with leading feed companies likely to replace smaller firms due to their advantages in procurement and scale [14]

宠物公司业绩表现亮眼，行业持续高景气 同时，宠物营销界发布 3 月数据：抖音作为新内容平台，销量、销售 额数据均呈现同比增长，看好头部国产品牌中长期成长空间。根据宠 物营销界数据，抖音 2025 年 3 月情况如下：销售额达到 8.18 亿，同 比+24.32%，销售量 1800.4 万，同比+34.12%；客单价下降 6.27%， 关联商品数增长 2.7%，关联品牌数增长 0.43%，关联小店数增长 29.94%，关联达人数增长 34.65%。其中销售额前五品牌情况：1）抖 音狗主粮：麦富迪、伯纳天纯、明亮与狗、比乐、鲜粮说，2）抖音猫 主粮：麦富迪、弗列加特、卫仕、喵梵思、蓝氏。淘宝 2025 年 3 月情 况如下：1）淘宝猫主粮：销量环比上升了29.30%，同比下降了21.25%； 销售额环比上升了 35.34%，同比下降了 21.37%。2）淘宝狗主粮：销 量环比上升 33.78%，同比下降了 17.79%；销售额环比上升 36.26%， 同比下降 12.56%，抖音新内容平台增长较好。 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 04 27 年 月 日 生猪养殖：本周全国瘦肉型肉 ...