证券代码：300783 证券简称：三只松鼠 公告编号：2025-038 三只松鼠股份有限公司 关于投资事项完成工商变更登记的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记 载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 三、备查文件 一、交易概述 2024 年 10 月 28 日，三只松鼠股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）第三届董 事会第十七次会议审议通过《关于签订<投资意向协议>的议案》，公司全资子公司 安徽一件事创业投资有限公司拟以不超过人民币 2 亿元收购湖南爱零食科技有限公 司的控制权或相关业务及资产；拟以不超过人民币 0.6 亿元收购未来已来（天津） 科技发展有限责任公司的控制权或相关业务及资产；拟以不超过人民币 1 亿元收购 安徽致养食品有限公司的控制权或相关业务及资产。具体内容详见公司 2024 年 10 月 29 日登载于巨潮资讯网（http://www.cninfo.com.cn）的《关于签订<投资意向 协议>的公告》（公告编号：2024-055）。 2025 年 1 月 24 日，经公司审慎研究并与交易对方友好协商，各方决定将《投 资意向协议》有效期及排他性约定的 90 天延长至正式 ...

Core Viewpoint - Three Squirrels has re-entered the pet food market with the launch of its new pet brand "Gold Medal Dad," offering a range of products including cat and dog food, snacks, and supplies, indicating a strategic pivot towards the growing pet economy in China [2][3][5] Company Summary - Three Squirrels previously ventured into the pet food sector in 2017 and established a wholly-owned subsidiary, Anhui Raised a Hairy Child Pet Food Co., Ltd., in 2020, creating its own brand "Raised a Hairy Child" [3] - In 2022, the company transferred the brand trademark to Shanghai Qixiang Enterprise Consulting Co., Ltd., which was seen as a strategic retreat from the pet food market due to business considerations [5] - In January 2023, Three Squirrels announced the establishment of Anhui Three Squirrels Pet Food Co., Ltd. to incubate the new brand "Gold Medal Dad," demonstrating renewed confidence in the pet economy [5][7] Product Launch and Market Position - The "Gold Medal Dad" brand has launched various products, including freeze-dried dog food and cat food, with a notable price point of 58.125 yuan/kg for its baked cat food, achieving over 6,000 sales [7] - The brand's Tmall flagship store has attracted nearly 14,000 followers, indicating a positive reception in the market [7] Industry Context - The pet economy in China is experiencing significant growth, with the market expected to exceed 300 billion yuan by 2024, driven by a 7.5% increase in urban pet consumption [9][10] - Major pet companies have reported record-breaking performances, with Petty Co. achieving its highest net profit in nearly a decade and other companies like Zhongchong Co. and Guibao Pet reaching historic revenue milestones [9] - Over 30 leading companies from various sectors, including food and beverage, pharmaceuticals, and retail, are entering the pet market, reflecting a broader trend of diversification into the pet economy [10] Competitive Landscape - The domestic pet industry is still in its developmental phase compared to international markets, with many companies relying on overseas operations for initial revenue [12] - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with both new and established brands vying for market share, necessitating innovation and differentiation strategies to succeed [13] - The pet food and supplies sector is characterized by a mix of foreign brand dominance and local enterprise participation, leading to a diverse and competitive market environment [13]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Three Squirrels, is facing significant challenges despite a return to over 10 billion RMB in revenue, with declining net profits and increasing reliance on price competition, raising concerns about the sustainability of its "high-end cost-performance" strategy [3][4][6][26]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Three Squirrels reported a net profit of 239 million RMB, a year-on-year decline of 22.46%, with a non-recurring net profit drop of 38.31%, indicating a situation of revenue growth without profit increase [3][6]. - For the year 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 10.622 billion RMB, a 49.3% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 408 million RMB, up 85.51% [4][19]. - The sales expenses for 2024 reached 1.868 billion RMB, a 50.92% increase, significantly outpacing management, financial, and R&D expenses [6][12]. Strategic Challenges - The "high-end cost-performance" strategy is under pressure, as the company heavily relies on online sales, which accounted for 69.73% of total revenue in 2024, leading to high marketing costs that erode net profits [6][9]. - The average selling price of core products has been declining, with price reductions of 9%-16% in key categories, resulting in a continuous drop in gross margin from over 31% in 2021 to below 25% in 2024 [10][11][17]. Market Position and Competition - The snack industry is experiencing intensified competition, with a shift to "stock competition," where traditional marketing strategies are becoming less effective [15][17]. - The company’s offline store count has decreased from 1,043 in 2020 to 333 in 2024, contrasting sharply with competitors like Good Products, which has over 2,700 stores [3][17]. IPO and Future Plans - Three Squirrels aims to achieve a revenue target of 20 billion RMB by 2026, requiring a doubling of revenue in two years, with significant growth needed in offline sales [19][22]. - The company plans to use part of the IPO proceeds to strengthen its offline store network and expand into new product categories, including pet food and ready-to-eat meals [21][23]. Supply Chain and Operational Issues - The company is facing challenges with cash flow, as operating cash flow net amount decreased by 62.96% year-on-year, and inventory surged by 70%, raising concerns about unsold stock [13][24]. - The current production capacity is heavily concentrated in East China, which may lead to supply-demand imbalances as new factories are planned [24].

Group 1: Plant-Based Beverage Industry - The plant-based beverage industry is experiencing a divergence in performance among major companies, with some like Yangyuan Beverage seeing profit growth despite a slight revenue decline, while others like Huanlejia face declines in both revenue and profit [2] - Traditional plant-based beverages are limited by seasonal demand and face competition from emerging categories, necessitating innovation to meet the health-conscious preferences of younger consumers [2] Group 2: Chinese Condiment Industry - The Chinese condiment industry has evolved from a focus on export during the planned economy era to becoming a global rule-maker, with companies like Haitian Flavoring and Lee Kum Kee leading the way [3][4] - The industry is leveraging cultural exports and technological innovation to reshape its landscape, emphasizing quality and innovation to support the globalization of Chinese flavors [4] Group 3: Community Supermarkets - Community supermarkets are gaining traction, with brands like Ole' and Hema NB expanding rapidly, focusing on middle-class consumers and enhancing product quality and efficiency [5] - The core competitiveness of community supermarkets lies in product control and operational efficiency, requiring deep supply chain engagement and digital tool application [5] Group 4: Health and Wellness Trends - There is a growing trend among young consumers towards "light wellness" products, with a focus on health-conscious beverages that are low in sugar and calories [6] - Boxed water products have seen significant sales growth, with products like fig and flaxseed water experiencing a 130% increase in sales [6] Group 5: Instant Food Market - The instant food market is shifting from high-end products to a focus on affordability, with budget products now accounting for nearly 50% of the instant noodle market [7] - Future opportunities lie in diversifying flavors and adjusting strategies to meet the differentiated demands of various market segments [7] Group 6: Aging Population and Bakery Market - The aging population is driving demand for soft-textured baked goods, with health-oriented and age-appropriate products becoming market hotspots [9] - Innovations inspired by Japanese practices, such as low-sugar and low-salt options, are key directions for the industry [9] Group 7: Snack Food Market Forecast - The Chinese snack food market is projected to grow to 972 billion yuan by 2025, with nut snacks holding the largest market share [10] - The industry is witnessing a shift towards health-oriented ready-to-eat products, with e-commerce and live streaming becoming significant growth drivers [10] Group 8: Beverage Market Dynamics - The beverage market is undergoing adjustments, with significant growth in electrolyte water and tea beverages, while packaged water sales are declining [12] - Companies like Nongfu Spring and Eastroc Beverage are experiencing contrasting performance, highlighting the competitive landscape [12] Group 9: Pre-made Dishes Market - The pre-made dishes market is experiencing a cooling phase, with many leading companies facing revenue declines due to changing consumer demands and increased competition [14] - Opportunities remain in local specialties and high-end products, with new retail channels emerging as growth points [14] Group 10: Health Drink Innovations - The market for Chinese herbal health drinks is expanding rapidly, with sales increasing from 0.1 billion yuan in 2018 to an expected 10 billion yuan by 2028 [19] - Companies are focusing on packaging, formulation, and marketing to differentiate themselves in a competitive landscape [19] Group 11: Functional Beverage Market - The functional beverage market is becoming increasingly diverse, with brands like Zhenguanzhuang entering the market with zero-sugar options targeting health-conscious consumers [32] - The collaboration between Zhenguanzhuang and Super Extreme Drink aims to fill market gaps and cater to the preferences of the younger generation [32] Group 12: Snack Food IPO Trends - Recent trends show a surge in snack food companies seeking IPOs in Hong Kong, with brands like Three Squirrels aiming to solidify their market position [21] - These companies face challenges related to competition and growth bottlenecks, despite their ambitions for expansion [21]

Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the food and beverage industry is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Viewpoints - The food and beverage industry is experiencing a mixed performance across various segments, with opportunities in new channels and product categories. The report highlights the need for companies to adapt to changing consumer preferences and market dynamics [5][6][7] Summary by Relevant Sections 1. Baijiu Sector - The baijiu sector achieved a total revenue of CNY 440.515 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 6.89%, and a net profit of CNY 166.778 billion, up 7.50%. In Q1 2025, revenue was CNY 152.933 billion, growing 1.82%, and net profit was CNY 63.340 billion, increasing 2.33% [15][19] - High-end baijiu brands like Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao are expected to see stable growth targets of around 9%, 5%, and steady progress respectively for 2025 [19][21] - The report notes that companies are increasing dividend rates to enhance returns for investors, with expected dividend yields for major brands ranging from 1.39% to 6.28% in 2025 [18] 2. Frozen Food - The frozen food industry is facing a slowdown in growth, with leading companies like Anjijia showing resilience while others like Qianwei Central Kitchen are under pressure due to product structure. The industry is seeking breakthroughs in products and channels to improve revenue and profit [6] 3. Snack Foods - The snack food sector is experiencing differentiation, with leading companies leveraging product innovation and channel expansion to drive growth. Salted Fish's brand "Big Demon King" has shown significant results from brand investment [6] 4. Soft Drinks - The soft drink segment is seeing high growth from brands like Dongpeng, while companies like LuLu and Master Kong maintain operational resilience. New products in the health drink category are also performing well [6] 5. Pet Food - The pet food industry remains highly prosperous, with leading companies like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co. showing revenue growth rates of 21.22% and 19.15% respectively in 2024 [7] 6. Bakery Products - The bakery sector is recovering, with significant growth in supermarket channels driven by new product launches. Companies like Angel Yeast are expanding their international business, contributing to overall growth [8] 7. Dairy Products - Yili's revenue is stabilizing with better-than-expected profit performance, while New Dairy is seeing continuous profit margin improvements. Yili aims for a total revenue of CNY 119 billion in 2025 [8] 8. Beer - The beer market is witnessing a recovery in consumption, with major brands like Qingdao Beer and Chongqing Beer showing positive sales growth in Q1 2025 [9] 9. Seasoning Products - The seasoning industry is under pressure, but companies like Haitian are performing steadily, with core products like soy sauce maintaining growth [9]

Core Insights - In 2024, China's total retail sales of consumer goods reached 48.79 trillion yuan, growing by 3.5%, marking the first time it fell below the GDP growth rate of 5% [1] - The fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) industry is transitioning into a phase dominated by "stock competition," focusing on efficiency improvement, brand optimization, and structural adjustments [1] FMCG Company Performance - **Kang Shifu**: Achieved revenue of 806.51 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.30%, with net profit rising by 19.80% to 37.34 billion yuan [2][6][8] - **Nongfu Spring**: Revenue of 428.96 billion yuan, up 0.50%, with net profit at 121.23 billion yuan, a marginal increase of 0.40% [2][6][9] - **Uni-President**: Revenue reached 303.32 billion yuan, a 6.09% increase, with net profit of 18.49 billion yuan, up 10.90% [2][6][10] - **China Foods**: Reported revenue of 214.92 billion yuan, a 0.20% increase, and net profit of 8.61 billion yuan, up 3.40% [2][6][11] - **Dongpeng Beverage**: Revenue surged to 158.39 billion yuan, a 40.63% increase, with net profit at 33.27 billion yuan, up 63.09% [2][6][12] - **Three Squirrels**: Revenue of 106.22 billion yuan, a significant increase of 49.30%, with net profit rising by 85.51% to 4.08 billion yuan [2][6][14] - **Liangpinpuzi**: Revenue decreased to 71.59 billion yuan, down 11.02%, with a net loss of 0.46 billion yuan [2][6][15] - **Zhi Zhi Food**: Revenue of 71.31 billion yuan, up 4.79%, with net profit of 8.49 billion yuan, up 5.82% [2][6][15] - **Tao Li Bread**: Revenue of 60.87 billion yuan, down 9.93%, with net profit of 5.22 billion yuan, down 9.05% [2][6][15] Industry Trends - The FMCG sector is experiencing a shift towards efficiency and brand optimization as the market matures, with companies adapting to changing consumer preferences and competitive pressures [1][16] - Companies like Dongpeng Beverage and Three Squirrels are successfully leveraging product innovation and market expansion to drive growth, while others like Liangpinpuzi face challenges due to strategic missteps [12][14][15] - The beverage segment, particularly tea drinks, is emerging as a key growth area for companies like Nongfu Spring, which is focusing on enhancing its product offerings and maintaining its market leadership [9][16] Dairy Industry Performance - **Yili**: Achieved revenue of 1157.80 billion yuan, a decline of 8.24%, with net profit of 84.53 billion yuan, down 18.94% [18][19] - **Mengniu**: Revenue fell to 886.75 billion yuan, down 10.09%, with a net profit of 1.05 billion yuan, a drastic drop of 97.83% [18][20] - **Bright Dairy**: Revenue of 242.78 billion yuan, down 8.33%, with net profit of 7.22 billion yuan, down 25.36% [18][21] - **Feihe**: Revenue increased to 207.50 billion yuan, up 6.00%, with net profit of 36.50 billion yuan, up 11.00% [18][22] - The dairy sector is facing significant challenges, with many companies reporting revenue and profit declines due to oversupply and weak consumer demand [22]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the food and beverage industry [6] Core Insights - The food and beverage sector is experiencing a recovery in consumption, driven by the active market during the May Day holiday, with key retail and catering enterprises reporting a sales increase of 6.3% year-on-year [5][54] - The report highlights the importance of inventory reduction, stable channels, and consumption promotion as the main themes for the liquor industry, with expectations for moderate recovery in demand [56][57] Summary by Sections Market Review - From April 21 to May 9, the A-share food and beverage industry (SW) declined by 0.16%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.15 percentage points and the Shenzhen Component Index by 3.69 percentage points [14] - In the same period, the best-performing sub-sectors included other alcoholic beverages (+4.20%), snacks (+3.95%), and soft drinks (+3.21%), while meat products (-5.17%), pre-processed foods (-2.73%), and beer (-1.51%) saw the largest declines [14][21] Key Data Tracking - For liquor, the price of Feitian Moutai was reported at 2,190 RMB for original boxes and 2,120 RMB for bulk, reflecting a 50 RMB increase from April 18 [3][28] - The average price of fresh milk in major production areas was 3.08 RMB/kg, down 9.7% year-on-year [4][37] - The national market price for pork was 26.02 RMB/kg, up 4.3% year-on-year [4][40] Key Events Tracking - The May Day holiday saw a significant increase in consumer spending, with catering enterprises' sales up 8.7% year-on-year [5][54] - In Q1 2025, China's dairy product imports rose by 22.9% in value, totaling 3.167 billion USD [5][54] Important Company Announcements - Qingdao Beer acquired 100% of the Shandong Jimo Yellow Wine Factory for 665 million RMB [55] - Haitian Flavor Industry received approval for its H-share issuance and listing [55] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-end liquor companies with strong brand and channel power, such as Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, as well as leading regional liquor companies [56][57] - For consumer goods, it recommends attention to leading dairy companies and sectors like snacks and energy drinks, which are expected to perform well [56][57]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][7]. Core Insights - The company's overall performance in Q1 2025 is subdued, but the key growth driver for 2025 is expected to be offline distribution, with a focus on increasing the proportion of daily sales products and sales performance [5]. - The company achieved revenue of 10.622 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 49.30%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 408 million yuan, up 85.51% year-on-year [5]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 3.723 billion yuan, a slight increase of 2.13% year-on-year, but net profit decreased by 22.46% year-on-year to 239 million yuan [5]. Revenue Breakdown - Online channels, particularly through Douyin, saw rapid growth, with 2024 online revenue reaching 7.407 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 49.60%, accounting for approximately 70% of total revenue [2]. - Offline distribution also expanded significantly, with offline channel revenue reaching 3.215 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year growth of 48.62% [2]. - The main brand, Three Squirrels, generated revenue of 9.825 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 50.57% [3]. Profitability Analysis - The gross margin for 2024 was 24.25%, an increase of 0.92 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to scale effects and an increase in self-produced products [4]. - The net profit margin for 2024 was 3.84%, up 0.75 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - In Q1 2025, the gross margin was 26.74%, showing stability despite a slight decrease of 0.66 percentage points year-on-year [4]. Future Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 13.522 billion yuan, 16.972 billion yuan, and 20.160 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 27.3%, 25.52%, and 18.78% [5][12]. - The projected net profit for 2025 is 450 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 10.41% [5][12].

Investment Rating - The report rates the food and beverage sector as "Overweight" for 2024 and Q1 2025 [1] Core Insights - The food and beverage sector is experiencing a slowdown, with 2024 revenue and net profit expected to grow by 2% and 4% year-on-year, respectively. For Q1 2025, revenue and net profit are projected to increase by 1% and 0.2% year-on-year, indicating overall deceleration [2][4] Summary by Sections 1. Food and Beverage Sector Overview - The food and beverage sector's total revenue for 2024 is projected at 1,089.8 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 2%, and net profit at 220.2 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 4%. The growth rate has decreased by 4.9 percentage points for revenue and 12.7 percentage points for net profit compared to the previous year [7][8] 2. Subsector Performance 2.1. Baijiu (Chinese liquor) - The baijiu sector is facing demand pressure, with revenue growth for high-end, mid-range, and regional baijiu expected to be 12%, 3%, and 0% respectively in 2024. Net profit growth is projected at 11%, -1%, and -7% respectively, indicating a clear performance differentiation among brands [12][14] 2.2. Beer - The beer sector is showing signs of recovery, with Q1 2025 revenue increasing by 4% and net profit by 11%. However, the average price per ton is under pressure, with a slight decline in prices observed [47][48] 2.3. Snacks - The snack segment is experiencing structural growth, with revenue growth of 18% in Q4 2024 and 2% in Q1 2025, although the latter is affected by high base effects and the timing of the Spring Festival [4][8] 2.4. Soft Drinks - The soft drink sector maintains a good growth trajectory, with revenue growth of 3% and net profit growth of 1% in Q1 2025, driven by strong performance from leading brands [4][8] 2.5. Dairy Products - The dairy sector faced a decline in 2024, with revenue down 7% and net profit down 27%. However, there are signs of improvement in Q1 2025 [4][8] 2.6. Seasonings - The seasoning sector is showing marginal improvement, with revenue growth of 3% and net profit growth of 7% in Q1 2025 [4][8] 2.7. Food Supply Chain - The food supply chain sector is under pressure due to increased competition, with revenue down 5% and net profit down 13% in Q1 2025 [4][8] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests overweight positions in high-quality growth stocks within the baijiu sector, such as Shanxi Fenjiu and Guizhou Moutai, as well as in snack companies like Three Squirrels and Yanjin. In the beer sector, it recommends stocks like Qingdao Beer and Zhujiang Beer [4][8]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a rebound with approximately 150 companies waiting to go public, indicating a recovery in market confidence [1][4] - Recent favorable policies and global capital inflows have driven IPO activity across various sectors, including technology and consumer goods [1][4] - The trend of Chinese companies returning to the Hong Kong market is further boosting investor interest in new stock performances and long-term market stability [1][4] Group 2 - In the first quarter of this year, 51 new IPO applications were submitted in Hong Kong, with nearly a quarter coming from A-share listed companies [3] - Notable companies such as Lens Technology and CATL are planning to list in Hong Kong, with CATL aiming to raise up to $5 billion, potentially marking the largest IPO in Hong Kong since 2021 [3][4] - The approval process for IPOs in Hong Kong has been streamlined, allowing companies with a market value of over HKD 10 billion to receive expedited approvals [4][7] Group 3 - Analysts predict that the new stock market will remain robust, especially following the market's reassessment of valuations for Chinese companies driven by advancements in artificial intelligence [4][6] - The Hong Kong IPO market is expected to outperform last year, with total fundraising potentially returning to the top three globally [6][7] - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission is working with the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to enhance the listing process and attract more companies [8][7] Group 4 - A significant number of high-tech companies are listing in Hong Kong, reflecting strong performance in the new economy sectors [8] - The successful listings of companies like Midea Group and SF Express have boosted confidence in the Hong Kong market, signaling a positive trend for future IPOs [8] - The Hong Kong government is actively promoting overseas investment and encouraging foreign companies to consider secondary listings in Hong Kong [7][8]