Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a rebound with approximately 150 companies waiting to go public, indicating a recovery in market confidence [1][4] - Recent favorable policies and global capital inflows have driven IPO activity across various sectors, including technology and consumer goods [1][4] - The trend of Chinese companies returning to the Hong Kong market is further boosting investor interest in new stock performances and long-term market stability [1][4] Group 2 - In the first quarter of this year, 51 new IPO applications were submitted in Hong Kong, with nearly a quarter coming from A-share listed companies [3] - Notable companies such as Lens Technology and CATL are planning to list in Hong Kong, with CATL aiming to raise up to $5 billion, potentially marking the largest IPO in Hong Kong since 2021 [3][4] - The approval process for IPOs in Hong Kong has been streamlined, allowing companies with a market value of over HKD 10 billion to receive expedited approvals [4][7] Group 3 - Analysts predict that the new stock market will remain robust, especially following the market's reassessment of valuations for Chinese companies driven by advancements in artificial intelligence [4][6] - The Hong Kong IPO market is expected to outperform last year, with total fundraising potentially returning to the top three globally [6][7] - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission is working with the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to enhance the listing process and attract more companies [8][7] Group 4 - A significant number of high-tech companies are listing in Hong Kong, reflecting strong performance in the new economy sectors [8] - The successful listings of companies like Midea Group and SF Express have boosted confidence in the Hong Kong market, signaling a positive trend for future IPOs [8] - The Hong Kong government is actively promoting overseas investment and encouraging foreign companies to consider secondary listings in Hong Kong [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The recent financial data of Three Squirrels shows a decline in net profit despite revenue growth, raising concerns about its ambitious future targets and market position [2][7][8]. Group 1: Company Overview - Three Squirrels, founded in February 2012, initially focused on nuts and quickly gained market traction through e-commerce platforms, achieving significant sales milestones [4][5]. - The company went public in July 2019, becoming the "first stock of national snacks" with a market capitalization reaching 80 billion yuan on its first trading day [6]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Three Squirrels reported revenue of 3.723 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.13%, but net profit fell by 22.46% to 239 million yuan, indicating a trend of increasing revenue without corresponding profit growth [2][7]. - From 2020 to 2023, the company experienced a decline in revenue from 9.794 billion yuan to 7.115 billion yuan, with net profits also decreasing significantly during this period [7][8]. Group 3: Market Position and Challenges - Three Squirrels has primarily relied on online sales, which accounted for approximately 69.73% of its revenue in 2024, but its offline market presence remains weak compared to competitors [10][11]. - The company set a target to achieve 20 billion yuan in revenue by 2026, requiring a significant increase in both online and offline sales [12][14]. Group 4: Strategic Initiatives - To strengthen its offline presence, Three Squirrels announced plans to acquire a mid-tier snack brand and expand its store network, although progress has been slow [15][16]. - The company aims to diversify its product offerings, including pet food and ready-to-eat meals, and plans to invest in marketing and brand awareness through various channels [17][18]. Group 5: Funding and Future Plans - The upcoming IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange aims to raise funds for expanding production capacity, enhancing supply chain management, and increasing brand visibility [21][22]. - Three Squirrels plans to establish new processing plants across various regions in China and explore strategic alliances to strengthen its market position [21][22].

Core Viewpoint - The recent financial data of Three Squirrels (300783.SZ) raises concerns about investor confidence as the company applies for a listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, showing revenue growth but a significant decline in net profit [2][6]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Three Squirrels reported revenue of 3.723 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.13%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 239 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 22.46% [2]. - The company aims to achieve a revenue target of 20 billion yuan by 2026, with 10 billion yuan from online and offline sales each [9][11]. Historical Growth - Three Squirrels experienced rapid growth from 2015 to 2018, with revenue increasing from 2.043 billion yuan to 7.001 billion yuan, representing a 242% growth over three years [5]. - The company became the first domestic snack company to reach a revenue of 10 billion yuan in 2019, with a market capitalization peak of 36 billion yuan in May 2020 [5][6]. Market Challenges - Since 2020, Three Squirrels has faced a decline in revenue for four consecutive years, dropping from 9.794 billion yuan to 7.115 billion yuan [6]. - The company's stock market value has decreased by 70%, falling to 10.7 billion yuan as of April 30, 2024 [7]. Online vs. Offline Sales - In 2024, online sales accounted for approximately 74.07 billion yuan, making up 69.73% of total revenue, while offline sales remain underdeveloped [7][9]. - The company has struggled to expand its offline presence, with a significant gap compared to competitors like Good Products, which has 2,700 offline stores [8]. Strategic Initiatives - To strengthen its offline market, Three Squirrels plans to open flagship stores and provide support to franchisees, aiming to enhance brand visibility and attract more partners [13]. - The company is diversifying its product offerings, including pet food and ready-to-eat meals, and plans to invest in these areas through the funds raised from the IPO [14][16]. Supply Chain and Production - Three Squirrels aims to improve its supply chain by establishing new production bases and expanding production capacity, including plans for factories in various regions of China and Vietnam [16]. - The company is also focusing on strategic alliances and acquisitions to enhance control over key segments of the value chain [17]. Marketing and Brand Awareness - The company has significantly increased its marketing expenditures, with total sales expenses reaching 10.72 billion yuan from 2019 to 2024, including nearly 6 billion yuan on advertising [17]. - Three Squirrels plans to enhance brand awareness through advertising on short video platforms and e-commerce channels [18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within the next six months [2][14]. Core Views - The company reported Q1 2025 revenues of 3.723 billion yuan, with a net profit of 239 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year revenue growth of 2.13% but a decline in net profit by 22.46% [5][6]. - The impact of the misalignment of the New Year festival affected quarterly profit performance, with a gross margin of 26.74% and a net profit margin of 6.42%, both showing slight declines year-on-year [6][8]. - The company plans to adjust its product category structure in 2025, increasing the proportion of snack foods and reducing reliance on nuts, while launching new products like soft drinks and instant foods [7][8]. Financial Summary - The company’s revenue projections for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 13.847 billion, 17.763 billion, and 20.576 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 30.36%, 28.28%, and 15.84% [8][10]. - The adjusted net profit forecasts for the same period are 485 million, 675 million, and 823 million yuan, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 19%, 39.18%, and 21.84% [8][10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 1.21, 1.68, and 2.05 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 22, 16, and 13 times [8][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within the next six months [8][14]. Core Views - The company reported Q1 2025 revenues of 3.723 billion yuan, with a net profit of 239 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year revenue growth of 2.13% but a decline in net profit by 22.46% [5][6]. - The impact of the misalignment of the New Year festival affected quarterly profits, with a gross margin of 26.74% and a net profit margin of 6.42%, both showing slight declines compared to the previous year [6][8]. - The company is focusing on diversifying its product categories, reducing reliance on nuts, and enhancing its product mix with new offerings such as soft drinks and convenience foods [7][8]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2025, the company expects revenues to reach 13.847 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 30.36%, and net profits projected at 485.2 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 19% [8][10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 1.21 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 22 times [8][10]. - The company’s total assets are projected to grow from 67.67 billion yuan in 2024 to 127.69 billion yuan by 2027, indicating a strong growth trajectory [10][13].

Core Insights - The freeze-dried food industry in China is part of the agricultural and agricultural product processing sector, with upstream focusing on raw materials and freeze-drying equipment, midstream on food freeze-drying processing, and downstream on wholesalers, supermarkets, convenience stores, and food companies [1] Industry Overview - The freeze-dried food industry is primarily concentrated in Shandong and Jiangsu, with additional presence in Anhui, Henan, and Fujian [3] - Upstream raw material companies are mainly located in Xinjiang, Gansu, Shandong, and Hubei, while upstream refrigeration equipment companies are found in Beijing and Shanghai. Midstream freeze-dried food companies are predominantly in Shandong and Fujian [6] Company Performance - In the first half of 2024, the revenue from pet snacks for Guai Bao Pet reached 1.194 billion yuan. The gross margin varies significantly among listed companies, with Lai Yi Fen's candy and fruit products gross margin exceeding 45%, while Hao Xiang Ni's health-preserving products have a gross margin of only 11.50% [7][8] - The number of stores for Lai Yi Fen is the highest among listed companies, totaling 3,472 [7] Company Financials | Company Name | Revenue (Billion Yuan) | Gross Margin (%) | Other Indicators | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Hao Xiang Ni (002582) | 0.35 | 11.50% | Store Count: 390 | | Lai Yi Fen (603777) | 3.41 | 45.18% | Store Count: 3,472 | | Liang Pin Pu Zi (603719) | 6.67 | 33.15% | Store Count: 2,814 | | San Zhi Song Shu (300783) | 0.35 | 21.32% | Store Count: 415 | | Guai Bao Pet (301498) | 1.194 | 39.19% | Pet Feed Sales: 176,000 tons | | Lu Si Co. (832419) | 0.215 | 26.41% | | | Zhong Chong Co. (002891) | 1.136 | 25.45% | Pet Food and Supplies Sales: 99,600 tons | | Pei Ti Co. (300673) | 0.190 | 29.87% | Pet Food and Others Sales: 30,100 tons [8] Recent Developments - Since 2024, representative companies in the freeze-dried food industry have engaged in strategic partnerships, established new companies, and built R&D centers [11]

Core Viewpoint - Three squirrels (300783.SZ) has initiated its IPO process in Hong Kong after its revenue returned to over 10 billion RMB, aiming to strengthen its position in the snack market through global supply chain enhancement, channel expansion, digital capability improvement, and strategic investments [1][2]. Company Overview - Founded in 2012, Three Squirrels has grown from a single nut product to the largest Chinese snack company, with revenue increasing from 924 million RMB in 2014 to 10.17 billion RMB in 2019, achieving a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 57.2% [2]. - The company faced a decline in revenue from 2020 to 2023, dropping to 7.115 billion RMB due to rising customer acquisition costs and challenges in offline expansion [2][3]. - In 2024, Three Squirrels' revenue rebounded to 10.622 billion RMB, marking a historical high, with a net profit of 408 million RMB [2][3]. Market Position - As of 2024, Three Squirrels ranks as the fourth largest snack company in China, with a retail revenue of 13.98 billion RMB and a market share of 3.2% [4][6]. - The company has the fastest CAGR among the top five snack companies in China, at 18.86% from 2022 to 2024 [4]. Industry Trends - The Chinese snack market is projected to grow from 1.0816 trillion RMB in 2019 to 1.344 trillion RMB in 2024, with a CAGR of 4.4% [7]. - Consumer demand is shifting towards healthier, personalized snacks, with increasing interest in low-sugar, low-fat, and high-protein options [11]. Competitive Landscape - The snack market is highly fragmented, with the top five companies holding only 5.9% of the total market share, necessitating strong brand influence and product competitiveness for success [12]. - Three Squirrels has implemented a "high-end cost-performance" strategy to enhance product competitiveness and market share, but faces challenges in balancing cost control and pricing strategies [12][13]. Product and Pricing Strategy - In 2024, the average selling prices of core products such as nuts and baked goods decreased significantly, which may compress profit margins if low pricing is maintained [13]. - The company is exploring multi-brand and new product categories to diversify risks and identify new growth points, although some brands are still in the incubation stage [15]. Future Outlook - The IPO is a critical decision for Three Squirrels, presenting both opportunities and challenges. The company must effectively utilize the raised funds to address strategic, channel, and product innovation issues to enhance brand competitiveness and market adaptability [15].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7] Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 revenue met market expectations, with a total revenue of 3.72 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.1% [7][11] - The company is undergoing a successful offline channel reform, which is expected to lead to double-digit growth in offline sales, while online sales face high base pressure with a slight decline in GMV [5][7] - The company's gross profit margin decreased by 0.66 percentage points to 26.74% in Q1 2025, primarily due to increased channel expenses related to the reform [6][7] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 13.897 billion yuan, 17.762 billion yuan, and 20.566 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 30.8%, 27.8%, and 15.8% [7][12] - The forecasted net profit attributable to the parent company is 475 million yuan, 656 million yuan, and 846 million yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 16.4%, 38.1%, and 29.0% [7][12] Financial Metrics - The company's current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are projected to be 23, 16, and 13 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [7][12] - The gross profit margin is expected to improve gradually, reaching 25.0% by 2027 [12][14] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to increase from 14.4% in 2024 to 21.6% in 2027 [12][14]

公司点评 | 静待渠道改革见效 | | --- | ——三只松鼠 25Q1 点评 主要观点： ➢ 25Q1 收入符合市场预期。 ⚫ 收入：春节错期扰动 | | | ➢ 分渠道看，线上面临高基数压力，预计营收增速同比持平。根据久谦 数据，公司 25Q1 猫京抖 GMV 合计同比下降 0.9%。线下渠道改革 顺 利 ， 预 计 同 比 实 现 双 位 数 增 长 。 去 除 春 节 影 响 ， 营 收 端 "24Q4+25Q1"合计同比增长 16.2%，仍处于快速增长。 ⚫ 利润：渠道费用投入阶段性加大 ➢ 25Q1 公司毛利率同比下降 0.66pct 至 26.74%，销售/管理/研发/财务 费率分别同比+2.41/+0.43/持平/-0.03pct。其中，毛利率下降与销售 费率上升，预计主因渠道改革导致费用投入力度加大；管理费率上升 预计主因研发中心转固导致折旧摊销费用上升。综上，公司归母净利 率同比下降 2.04pct 至 6.42%。 ⚫ 投资建议：维持"买入" ➢ 我们的观点： 公司线下渠道改革稳步推进，长尾性价比产品矩阵充分满足 BCD 类 商超需求痛点，通过并购爱折扣切入硬折扣业态，营收仍有额外增量 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the companies analyzed, indicating a positive outlook for their future performance [10][19][33]. Group 2: Core Insights - The active bond fund market shows a slight increase in the number of funds and total assets, with 3,263 funds and a total scale of 7.90 trillion yuan, reflecting a 0.8% and 1.0% increase respectively [7][8]. - The performance of active bond funds in Q1 was influenced by rising government bond yields, with short-term pure bond funds performing particularly well [7][8]. - The report highlights a shift in asset allocation within mixed secondary bond funds, with increased holdings in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, pharmaceuticals, and steel [8][9]. - The medical device company Mindray achieved a revenue of 36.73 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 5.14%, while its international business grew by 21.28% [10][11]. - Haibo Technology reported a revenue of 8.27 billion yuan in 2024, marking an 18.44% increase, with a significant focus on energy storage systems [15][18]. - The refrigerant manufacturer Sanmei achieved a revenue of 4.04 billion yuan in Q1 2025, reflecting a 26.42% increase, driven by strong demand in the home appliance and automotive sectors [26][27]. Group 3: Summary by Sections Active Bond Funds - As of Q1 2025, the number of active bond funds reached 3,263, with a total scale of 7.90 trillion yuan, and 43 new funds were issued, totaling 783.7 billion yuan [7][8]. - The performance of short-term pure bond funds was notably strong due to rising yields, while mixed bond funds showed volatility [7][8]. Mindray Medical - Mindray's revenue for 2024 was 36.73 billion yuan, with a net profit of 11.67 billion yuan, and a proposed cash dividend of 5.6 yuan per 10 shares [10][11]. - The company anticipates a recovery in domestic business in 2025, with international revenue expected to continue growing [11][12]. Haibo Technology - Haibo's revenue for 2024 was 8.27 billion yuan, with a focus on energy storage systems, which accounted for a significant portion of its revenue [15][18]. - The company has established partnerships with international firms to explore new market opportunities [18]. Sanmei - Sanmei's revenue for 2024 was 4.04 billion yuan, with a significant increase in refrigerant prices due to supply constraints [26][27]. - The company is well-positioned in the market with a leading share in the production of third-generation refrigerants [29]. Huayu Automotive - Huayu reported a revenue of 168.85 billion yuan in 2024, with a slight decline in net profit due to cost pressures [31][32]. - The company is adjusting its customer structure to mitigate risks associated with its largest client, SAIC [32][33].