核心观点 【市场回顾】周四 A 股三大指数涨跌互现。截至收盘，上证综指涨 0.01%，深成指跌 0.11%，创业板指涨 0.26%。全市场成交额 13,035 亿元，较上日增加 169 亿元。全市场超 2,300 只个股上涨。板块题材 上，稀土永磁、量子科技、IP 经济、汽车零部件板块涨幅居前；农 业、猪肉板块跌幅居前。 【重要新闻】 市 场 研 究 [Table_Title] 万联晨会 [Table_MeetReportDate] 2025 年 06 月 13 日 星期五 [Table_Summary] 概览 【商务部召开新闻发布会介绍中美经贸磋商机制首次会议情况】2025 年 6 月 12 日商务部召开新闻发布会。商务部介绍了中美经贸团队在 英国伦敦举行中美经贸磋商机制首次会议。双方就落实两国元首 6 月 5 日通话重要共识和巩固日内瓦经贸会谈成果的措施框架达成原则 一致，就解决双方彼此经贸关切取得新进展。关于稀土问题，中国作 为负责任的大国，充分考虑各国在民用领域的合理需求与关切，依法 依规对稀土相关物项出口许可申请进行审查，已依法批准一定数量的 合规申请，并将持续加强合规申请的审批工作。 研报精选 华 ...

运动鞋制造龙头，壁垒深厚，增长可期 [Table_StockName] ——华利集团（300979）首次覆盖 [Table_ReportDate] [Table_Summary] 投资要点: ⚫ 公司概况：公司是全球领先的运动鞋专业制造商，合作的运动休闲品牌 包括 Nike、Converse、Vans、UGG、Hoka One One、Puma、Under Armour 等。前身成立于 1990 年，至今深耕鞋履制造行业已有二十余年，在鞋 履制造领域具有较强的竞争优势。公司股权高度集中，实际控制人为张 聪渊家族，合计持有 87.48%的股权。近年来，公司业绩稳步增长，收入 与净利润趋势向好，2017-2024 年营业收入/归母净利润 CAGR 分别为 +13.31%/+19.47%。 ⚫ 行业看点：全球运动鞋履市场规模稳健增长。根据 Euromonitor 数据， 2011-2024 年，全球运动鞋履市场销售规模从 952.53 亿美元上升至 1686.45 亿美元，CAGR 为 4.49%，预计未来受益于消费者健康意识提升、 产品科技创新、体育赛事的推动等有望保持稳健增长。此外，受人力成 本、关税、自然资源 ...

——纺织服装行业2025年中期投资策略 民生纺服 郑紫舟 关注细分趋势下品牌机遇，把握 业绩弹性制造企业 2025年6月9日 * 证券研究报告 * 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 01 摘要 板块复盘：品牌端稳健，制造端分化。2025年以来服饰销售终端消费稳步向上，纺织制造出口表现分化。2025年4月社会零售总额维稳增长，当月同 比增速为5.1%，环比3月-0.8pct；限额以上服装鞋帽针纺类销售额同比+2.2%，增速环比-1.4pct。2024年H2基数较低，看好25H2服装鞋帽品类消 费总额增速表现。孟加拉和越南等服装出口表现较国内服装出口表现更强劲。2025年4月我国纺织品及服装同比-0.5%，表现弱于孟加拉和越南服装 出口，其中，越南纺织品及服装出口额同比增速达到18.15%。从2025年前三个月来看，这两个国家服装出口表现同样显著优于我国纺织品及服装出 口表现。 品牌服饰：内循环下，把握趋势与确定性。主线一：运动服饰表现韧性，户外细分垂类高景气，聚焦确定性。建议关注主品牌强韧性，户外品牌高景 气的安踏体育；低估值高股息，Nike修复高弹性标的滔搏；主品牌受益于行业向上，高端品牌盈利改善的特步国际。主线二 ...

研究报告 Research Report 8 Jun 2025 中国 & 中国可选消费 & 必需消费 China (A-share) & China (Overseas) Discretionary & Staples 餐饮、潮玩及家电行业周报 F&B, Designer Toys and Home Appliances Sector Weekly Report [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus | [Table_Info] | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股票名称 | 评级 股票名称 | 评级 | | | 贵州茅台 | Outperform 东鹏饮料 | | Outperform | | 贵州茅台 | Outperform 中国中免 | | Outperform | | 美的集团 | Outperform 百威亚太 | | Neutral | | 五粮液 | Outperform 小商品城 | | Outperform | | 五粮液 | Outperform 洋河股份 | | Outperform | | 泡泡玛特 | Out ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the textile and apparel sector, including Anta Sports, Xtep International, and Shenzhou International, among others [9][11][23]. Core Insights - Lululemon's FY2025Q1 revenue increased by 7% year-on-year to $2.4 billion, with international business revenue growing by 19% [1][14]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on brands with strong fundamentals and quality, anticipating performance recovery and valuation improvement in 2025 [4][19]. - The outdoor sports and running demand segments are expected to expand faster than the overall demand for sportswear and branded apparel [4][19]. Summary by Sections Lululemon Performance - Lululemon's FY2025Q1 revenue growth was driven by a 19% increase in its China business, which reached $410 million [3][16]. - The company expects revenue growth of 7% to 8% for FY2025Q2 and 5% to 7% for the full fiscal year [1][14]. Regional Performance - In the Americas, Lululemon's U.S. revenue grew by 1.7% to $1.36 billion, while Canadian revenue increased by 3.9% to $290 million [2][15]. - The Chinese market showed robust growth, with same-store sales up 7% and plans to expand store count to around 200 [3][16]. Industry Outlook - The textile and apparel sector is projected to outperform the broader market, with a focus on companies that demonstrate strong operational capabilities and sustainable growth [4][19]. - The report highlights the potential for companies like Anta Sports and Xtep International to benefit from the growing demand in the outdoor and running segments [4][23]. Key Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality brands such as Anta Sports, Xtep International, and Shenzhou International, which are expected to deliver strong performance in 2025 [4][11][23]. - It also suggests monitoring companies like Hailan Home and Bosideng for their growth potential and attractive valuations [11][23].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. **Model Name: Volume Timing Model** - **Model Construction Idea**: The model uses volume signals to time the market, indicating cautious signals when the volume is low. - **Model Construction Process**: The model calculates the volume timing signals for major broad-based indices. The specific process involves assessing the volume levels and determining the market stance based on these levels. - **Model Evaluation**: The model currently maintains a cautious signal for all major broad-based indices.[2][23][24] 2. **Model Name: Momentum Sentiment Indicator** - **Model Construction Idea**: This model captures market sentiment by calculating the proportion of stocks with positive returns within a given period. - **Model Construction Process**: - Calculate the proportion of stocks in the CSI 300 index with positive returns over the past N days. - Use the formula: $$ \text{Proportion of stocks with positive returns} = \frac{\text{Number of stocks with positive returns in past N days}}{\text{Total number of stocks in CSI 300 index}} $$ - Apply smoothing with different window periods to capture the trend changes. - **Model Evaluation**: The indicator can quickly capture upward opportunities but may miss out on gains during sustained market exuberance. It also has limitations in predicting downturns.[24][25][28] 3. **Model Name: Moving Average Sentiment Indicator** - **Model Construction Idea**: This model uses the eight moving average system to judge the trend state of the index. - **Model Construction Process**: - Calculate the eight moving averages for the closing price of the CSI 300 index with parameters 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, and 233. - Assign values to the indicator based on the number of moving averages the current price exceeds. - Use the formula: $$ \text{Indicator Value} = \begin{cases} 1 & \text{if price > 5 moving averages} \\ 0 & \text{if price between 3-5 moving averages} \\ -1 & \text{if price < 3 moving averages} \end{cases} $$ - **Model Evaluation**: The model indicates that the CSI 300 index is currently in a sentiment boom area.[33][34][36] Model Backtesting Results 1. **Volume Timing Model** - **Indicator Value**: Cautious signal for all major broad-based indices[24] 2. **Momentum Sentiment Indicator** - **Indicator Value**: Proportion of stocks with positive returns in CSI 300 index around 64%[25] 3. **Moving Average Sentiment Indicator** - **Indicator Value**: CSI 300 index is in a sentiment boom area[36] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. **Factor Name: Cross-sectional Volatility** - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor measures the dispersion of returns among index constituents to gauge the alpha environment. - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the cross-sectional volatility for the constituents of the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices. - Use the formula: $$ \text{Cross-sectional Volatility} = \sqrt{\frac{1}{N-1} \sum_{i=1}^{N} (R_i - \bar{R})^2} $$ where \( R_i \) is the return of stock \( i \) and \( \bar{R} \) is the average return. - **Factor Evaluation**: The recent cross-sectional volatility has increased, indicating a better short-term alpha environment for the CSI 300 and CSI 1000 indices.[38][41] 2. **Factor Name: Time-series Volatility** - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor measures the volatility of returns over time for index constituents to assess the alpha environment. - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the time-series volatility for the constituents of the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices. - Use the formula: $$ \text{Time-series Volatility} = \sqrt{\frac{1}{T-1} \sum_{t=1}^{T} (R_t - \bar{R})^2} $$ where \( R_t \) is the return at time \( t \) and \( \bar{R} \) is the average return. - **Factor Evaluation**: The recent time-series volatility has increased for the CSI 300 and CSI 500 indices, indicating a better alpha environment.[42][44] Factor Backtesting Results 1. **Cross-sectional Volatility** - **CSI 300**: Recent quarterly average 1.66%, 66.11% of the past half-year[41] - **CSI 500**: Recent quarterly average 1.94%, 39.68% of the past half-year[41] - **CSI 1000**: Recent quarterly average 2.32%, 54.58% of the past half-year[41] 2. **Time-series Volatility** - **CSI 300**: Recent quarterly average 0.53%, 65.49% of the past half-year[44] - **CSI 500**: Recent quarterly average 0.41%, 57.14% of the past half-year[44] - **CSI 1000**: Recent quarterly average 0.25%, 54.98% of the past half-year[44]

Group 1: Market and Economic Impact - The company is monitoring the evolving tariff policies between the U.S. and Southeast Asian countries, particularly Vietnam, and has not yet seen significant order cancellations due to tariffs [2] - Approximately 40% of the company's sales revenue comes from the U.S. market, which is the largest consumer market for athletic shoes [2] - The company has developed various response plans based on potential tariff increases on imports from Vietnam and Indonesia, maintaining close communication with clients [2] Group 2: Production and Operational Efficiency - The company is currently in a production peak season with full order books and normal production across all factories [2] - New factories in Vietnam and Indonesia are under construction, with the pace of development aligned with order demand [2][3] - The initial phase of new factory operations has led to a temporary decline in overall gross margin due to the inexperience of new employees and the need for process optimization [3] Group 3: Supply Chain and Material Sourcing - In 2024, over 50% of the raw materials for the Vietnam factory will be sourced locally, while the share from mainland China has decreased to about 30% [4] - The Vietnam factory operates on a processing model, where it receives raw materials from the Hong Kong subsidiary and charges only for processing, benefiting from tax exemptions on imported materials [4] Group 4: Future Orders and Capacity Planning - The company is optimistic about 2025 orders, with most clients showing growth, although some face challenges in terminal sales [5] - New production facilities in Vietnam and a planned capacity of over 60 million pairs in Indonesia are expected to come online, with the Indonesian factory projected to start production in mid-2024 [6] - The company has also established a finished shoe factory in Sichuan, which began production in Q1 2025 [6] Group 5: Shareholder Relations - The controlling shareholder has not yet reduced their stake, aiming to optimize the shareholder structure and welcoming long-term investors [7]

2025年06月05日 证券研究报告 | 关税影响专题三：美国对等关税暂缓期， 国际品牌表述与供应链梳理 行业研究 · 行业专题 纺织服饰 投资评级：优于大市（维持） 证券分析师：丁诗洁 证券分析师：刘佳琪 0755-81981391 010-88005446 dingshijie@guosen.com.cn liujiaqi@guosen.com.cn S0980520040004 S0980523070003 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 核心观点 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 • 特朗普对等关税政策关键时点梳理：4月10日特朗普政府再次表示，对75国关税暂缓90天（暂缓令将于7月8日到期）。5月12日中美和谈， 发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》，相互取消了91%的关税。5月28日，美国国际贸易法院裁定特朗普关税政策无效，特朗普政府随即 上诉。关税政策仍具有不确定性。 • 国际品牌对关税事件表态梳理：特朗普的90天暂缓令将于7月8日到期，各品牌陆续明确关税对利润会造成影响：1）美国收入占比:各品牌 美国市场占比有差异，美国市场占比大、价格低的品牌影响更大。优衣库美国收入占 ...

2025年06月05日 证券研究报告 | 关税影响专题三：美国对等关税暂缓期， 国际品牌表述与供应链梳理 行业研究 · 行业专题 纺织服饰 投资评级：优于大市（维持） 证券分析师：丁诗洁 证券分析师：刘佳琪 0755-81981391 010-88005446 dingshijie@guosen.com.cn liujiaqi@guosen.com.cn S0980520040004 S0980523070003 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 • 特朗普对等关税政策关键时点梳理：4月10日特朗普政府再次表示，对75国关税暂缓90天（暂缓令将于7月8日到期）。5月12日中美和谈， 发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》，相互取消了91%的关税。5月28日，美国国际贸易法院裁定特朗普关税政策无效，特朗普政府随即 上诉。关税政策仍具有不确定性。 • 国际品牌对关税事件表态梳理：特朗普的90天暂缓令将于7月8日到期，各品牌陆续明确关税对利润会造成影响：1）美国收入占比:各品牌 美国市场占比有差异，美国市场占比大、价格低的品牌影响更大。优衣库美国收入占比最低仅7%；阿迪达斯、PUMA也较低，占收入20%， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the outdoor industry and consumer sectors, particularly focusing on domestic brands and high-quality companies in the textile and retail sectors [3][4][8]. Core Insights - The 618 shopping festival has commenced, showcasing strong performance from domestic brands, particularly in the beauty and personal care sectors, which are expected to benefit from structural opportunities [3][4]. - The outdoor sports apparel segment is experiencing upward momentum, with several brands expanding their presence in this market, indicating a growing consumer interest in outdoor activities [4]. - The manufacturing sector is showing resilience despite fluctuating tariff policies, with leading manufacturers expected to enhance their market share [3][4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index experienced slight declines, while the textile and apparel sector saw a weekly increase of 1.55%, outperforming the broader market [5][14]. Industry Data Tracking - Retail sales data for April showed a year-on-year growth of 5.1%, with specific categories like gold and silver jewelry seeing a significant increase of 25.3% [22][23]. - Cotton prices have slightly decreased, with the Cotlook A Index dropping by 0.7% and the Chinese cotton price index down by 0.3% [25][29]. Company Dynamics - Companies such as Anta Sports and 361° are highlighted as high-growth potential firms within the consumer sector, while others like Hailan Home and Semir Fashion are noted for their business adjustments leading to high elasticity [8]. - Recent revenue reports from Fengtai and Yuyuan indicate stable growth, with year-on-year increases of 2.7% and 10.5%, respectively, reflecting a positive outlook for order growth [34].