部分新客户表现优异销量增长带动收入增长双位数，新厂爬坡拖累毛利率。2025 年第一季度公司实现 营业收入53.53 亿元，同比增长12.3%，主要受阿迪达斯、昂跑、NB 等新客户订单销量增长驱动；归母 净利润7.62 亿元，同比下滑3.2%。毛利率同比下滑5.5 百分点至22.9%，主要受新投产工厂效率爬坡影 响，继2024 年上半年和下半年各投产2 家成品鞋工厂之后，2025年第一季度2 家成品鞋工厂已经投产。 期间费用率同比优化2.0 百分点，其中财务费用率同比下降0.6 百分点至-0.5%，主要受益于汇兑收益增 加，今年Q1 汇兑收益为900 万，去年同期损失1700 万；此外管理费用率同比-1.5百分点至3.7%。在毛 利率承压影响下，营业利润率同比-3.4 百分点至17.6%，归母净利率同比-2.3 百分点至14.2%。 销量保持高个位数快速增长，新老客户结构更加均衡。拆分量价来看，Q1 销售运动鞋0.49 亿双，同比 +8.2%，Asp 约108.4 元人民币，同比+3.8%（美元口径约+2.7%），单价提升预计主要源于高单价品牌 占比提升。分客户看，预计阿迪达斯、昂跑、NB 等新客户订单销量增速 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 80.82 RMB [7][8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 5.35 billion RMB in Q1 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 12.3%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 760 million RMB, down 3.3% year-over-year. The short-term pressure on profitability is attributed to the ramp-up of new factory capacity. However, the company is expected to benefit from capacity improvements and the expansion of new customers, maintaining its competitive advantage [1][5]. - The company has strategically expanded its customer base, including partnerships with Adidas, New Balance, and On, which have significantly contributed to revenue growth. The company anticipates further impressive growth as the peak season approaches in Q2 2025 [2][5]. - The company's net profit margin decreased by 2.3 percentage points year-over-year to 14.2%, and the gross profit margin fell by 5.5 percentage points to 22.9%, primarily due to the initial efficiency ramp-up of new factories. The workforce increased to 184,000, a 17% year-over-year rise. The company’s inventory was 3.67 billion RMB, up 12.5% year-over-year, and accounts receivable reached 3.31 billion RMB, up 15.3% year-over-year, indicating a focus on stocking for production expansion [3][5]. - The company acquired three Vietnamese shoe companies for a total of approximately 67.4 million RMB to optimize production resources, which are expected to enhance production capacity synergy within 1-2 years, thereby increasing the company's market share in global footwear manufacturing [4][5]. - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 is maintained at 4.32 billion RMB, 4.95 billion RMB, and 5.61 billion RMB, respectively. The company is assigned a PE ratio of 21.8 for 2025, based on a comparable company average PE of 12.7, reflecting its strong customer base and industry leadership [5][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue was 5.35 billion RMB, a 12.3% increase year-over-year, while net profit was 760 million RMB, a decrease of 3.3% year-over-year [1]. - The company’s net profit margin decreased to 14.2%, and gross profit margin fell to 22.9% due to new factory ramp-up [3]. Customer Expansion - The company has successfully expanded its customer base, notably with Adidas, New Balance, and On, contributing to an 8.24% increase in sneaker sales volume to 49 million pairs in Q1 2025 [2]. Capacity and Acquisitions - The company acquired three Vietnamese shoe companies to enhance production capacity, expected to yield benefits within 1-2 years [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 is set at 4.32 billion RMB, 4.95 billion RMB, and 5.61 billion RMB, with a target PE ratio of 21.8 for 2025 [5][6].

兴业证券股份有限公司 关于中山华利实业集团股份有限公司 2024 年年度跟踪报告 | 保荐人名称：兴业证券股份有限公司 | 被保荐公司简称：华利集团 | | --- | --- | | 保荐代表人姓名：张华辉 | 联系电话：020-83637785 | | 保荐代表人姓名：陈旸 | 联系电话：0755-23995226 | 一、保荐工作概述 | 项 目 | 工作内容 | | --- | --- | | 1.公司信息披露审阅情况 | | | （1）是否及时审阅公司信息披露文件 | 是 | | （2）未及时审阅公司信息披露文件的次数 | 0 次 | | 2．督导公司建立健全并有效执行规章制度的 | | | 情况 | | | （1）是否督导公司建立健全规章制度（包括 但不限于防止关联方占用公司资源的制度、 | | | 募集资金管理制度、内控制度、内部审计制 | 是 | | 度、关联交易制度） | | | （2）公司是否有效执行相关规章制度 | 是 | | 3.募集资金监督情况 | | | （1）查询公司募集资金专户次数 | 每月查询 | | （2）公司募集资金项目进展是否与信息披露 | | | 文件一致 | 是 | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [2] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 5.35 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 12%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 3% to 760 million yuan [5][6] - The new factory's ramp-up is impacting profit margins, with the gross margin declining by 5.5 percentage points to 22.9% due to initial production challenges [6] - The company is expanding its customer base with new clients like Adidas and New Balance, which are expected to drive sales growth and increase average transaction value [6][7] Financial Summary - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 56.14 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 65.5 billion yuan [4] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 3.54 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 15.98 [10] - Forecasted net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 4.13 billion yuan, 4.72 billion yuan, and 5.44 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 16, 14, and 12 [7][10]

Market Outlook - The global athletic shoe market is expected to continue its stable growth over the next 5 to 10 years, driven by consumer demand for comfort and health-oriented lifestyles [2][5] - Emerging markets have significant potential for growth in athletic shoe penetration compared to developed regions like the US and Europe [2] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company experienced a significant increase in new customer orders, particularly from brands like Adidas and New Balance, contributing to revenue growth [3][6] - The gross margin has seen a decline due to the initial inefficiencies of new factories and the onboarding of new employees, which is expected to improve as operations stabilize [3][9] Production and Capacity - The company is currently in a production peak season with full order books and no significant cancellations reported [5][9] - New factories are being established in Vietnam and Indonesia, with the latter expected to have a capacity of over 60 million pairs annually, starting production in mid-2024 [8] Strategic Partnerships - The company is actively pursuing partnerships with emerging brands and has already begun collaboration with Asics [3][4] - There is a focus on automating production processes to enhance efficiency and reduce reliance on skilled labor [3][7] Risk Management - The company is monitoring the impact of potential tariff changes on its operations in Southeast Asia and has prepared various response strategies [9] - Despite uncertainties in the global trade environment, the company plans to maintain its investment pace in production capacity in Indonesia and Vietnam [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company has successfully advanced its new brand collaborations, with Q1 2025 revenue growth meeting expectations [5] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 5.353 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 12.34%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 762 million RMB, a decrease of 3.25% [7] - The company continues to deepen cooperation with new clients and emerging sports brands, with sales of sports shoes reaching 49 million pairs, up 8.24% year-on-year [7] - The company has a strong dividend policy, distributing 2.3 RMB per share (including tax) for the 2024 fiscal year, with an expected payout ratio of approximately 70% of net profit [7] - The company is expanding its production capacity to meet downstream demand, with two new shoe factories starting operations in Q1 2025, increasing the workforce to 184,000, a year-on-year increase of 17% [7] - The growth in orders is driven by increased consumer demand in the sports industry and deeper collaborations with brands like Adidas [7] - The company is expected to see a rise in average selling price (ASP) due to structural changes in its client base [7] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 20.114 billion RMB - 2024: 24.006 billion RMB (19.35% YoY growth) - 2025E: 27.664 billion RMB (15.24% YoY growth) - 2026E: 31.734 billion RMB (14.71% YoY growth) - 2027E: 36.258 billion RMB (14.25% YoY growth) [6] - Net profit projections are as follows: - 2023: 3.2 billion RMB - 2024: 3.84 billion RMB (20% YoY growth) - 2025E: 4.355 billion RMB (13.4% YoY growth) - 2026E: 4.959 billion RMB (13.87% YoY growth) - 2027E: 5.731 billion RMB (15.58% YoY growth) [6] - The company maintains a strong return on equity (ROE) of approximately 21% over the forecast period [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company experienced significant new customer growth in Q1 2025, with revenue reaching 5.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.3%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 760 million yuan, reflecting a decrease of 3.2% due to the impact of new factory ramp-up on profitability [7][8] - The report anticipates improved gross margins in Q2 2025 as scale effects and new factory ramp-up take effect, with long-term optimism regarding new customer volume and increased market share from existing customers [7][8] Financial Summary - Q1 2025 revenue was 5.35 billion yuan, with a volume increase of 8.24% and a price increase of 3.8%. The gross margin was 22.9%, down 5.5 percentage points due to initial training periods for new employees at new factories [7][8] - The company plans to accelerate the construction of new factories to meet the growing demand from new customers, with two new factories in Indonesia and Sichuan launched in Q1 2025, and further expansions planned in Vietnam and Indonesia [7] - The net profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted to 4.1 billion, 4.76 billion, and 5.51 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 16.1, 13.8, and 12.0 times [7][9] Operational Capability - As of Q1 2025, the company had a net operating cash flow of 1.21 billion yuan, with inventory at 3.67 billion yuan and accounts receivable at 3.31 billion yuan, indicating a stable operational capability [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company experienced significant new customer growth in Q1 2025, with revenue reaching 5.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.3%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 3.2% to 760 million yuan due to the initial efficiency challenges of new factories [7][8] - The report anticipates improved gross margins in Q2 2025 as scale effects and new factory ramp-up contribute positively. Long-term prospects remain optimistic due to the expansion of new customer orders and increased market share from existing clients [7][8] Financial Summary - Q1 2025 revenue: 5.35 billion yuan (YoY +12.3%) - Q1 2025 net profit: 760 million yuan (YoY -3.2%) - Q1 2025 gross margin: 22.9% (down 5.5 percentage points) - Q1 2025 net profit margin: 14.2% (down 2.3 percentage points) [7][8] - Expected net profit for 2025-2027: 4.1 billion, 4.76 billion, and 5.51 billion yuan respectively [7] Operational Insights - Q1 2025 sales volume: 49 million pairs (YoY +8.24%), with an average price of 109 yuan per pair (YoY +3.8%) [7] - The company is accelerating the construction of new factories to meet the rising demand from new clients such as Adidas and New Balance, with plans to open two new factories in Indonesia and Sichuan in Q1 2025 [7] - As of Q1 2025, the company employed 184,000 people, a 17% increase YoY, with expectations of a slowdown in hiring in Q2 2025 [8] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027: 27.66 billion, 31.68 billion, and 36.18 billion yuan respectively [9] - Expected net profit margins for 2025-2027: 14.8%, 15.0%, and 15.2% respectively [9] - P/E ratios for 2025-2027: 16.1, 13.8, and 12.0 respectively [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, anticipating a net profit growth of 44.23 billion, 50.74 billion, and 57.92 billion RMB for the years 2025 to 2027, corresponding to P/E ratios of 15, 13, and 11 respectively [5] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 5.353 billion RMB in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 12.34%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 762 million RMB, a decrease of 3.25% [2] - The company is experiencing stable orders with short-term profit margins affected by the ramp-up of new factories, but overall performance is in line with expectations [2] - The company has successfully launched new factories in Vietnam, Indonesia, and China to meet the growing demand, with two new shoe factories already operational in Q1 2025 [3] - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 22.90%, down 5.47 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the efficiency ramp-up of new factories [3] - The company is expected to gradually restore its profitability as new factories improve operational efficiency through optimized training mechanisms and the deployment of smart production equipment [3] Summary by Sections Performance Review - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 5.353 billion RMB, reflecting a 12.34% year-on-year growth, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 762 million RMB, down 3.25% [2] Operational Analysis - The company sold 49 million pairs of sports shoes in Q1 2025, marking an 8.24% year-on-year increase, with a slight growth in average selling price (ASP) [3] - The company’s gross margin was impacted by new factory ramp-ups, but the net profit margin was 14.26%, down 2.30 percentage points year-on-year [3] Market and Client Dynamics - The company is less affected by tariffs due to its Southeast Asian factories using a processing model and local sourcing of over 50% of raw materials in Vietnam [4] - The company is expected to benefit from new client orders, particularly from Adidas, as it continues to expand its customer base despite slower growth from major clients like Nike [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 44.23 billion, 50.74 billion, and 57.92 billion RMB from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 15, 13, and 11 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 5.35 billion yuan and a net profit of 760 million yuan for Q1 2025, indicating a year-on-year revenue growth of 12% but a decline in net profit by 3% [1] Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue was 5.35 billion yuan, up 12% year-on-year; net profit was 760 million yuan, down 3% year-on-year; and non-recurring net profit was 750 million yuan, also down 3% year-on-year [1] - Q1 2025 gross margin decreased by 5.5 percentage points to 22.9% due to the ramp-up of new factories, with expectations for improvement in Q2 2025 [1][3] - The company’s net profit margin fell by 2.3 percentage points to 14.3% in Q1 2025 [1] Sales and Orders - Q1 2025 saw a significant increase in new customer orders, with stable orders from existing clients [2] - The company maintained deep cooperation with major brands like Nike and Adidas, with expectations for a 15%+ revenue growth in 2025 driven by new customer orders [2][4] Capacity Expansion - The company plans to accelerate capacity expansion, with a total capacity of 229 million pairs and a utilization rate of 97% in 2024 [2] - Four new factories were launched in 2024, with two more in Q1 2025, indicating a potential CAGR of 15% in production from 2025 to 2026 [3] Operational Efficiency - The company has maintained high production management efficiency, with a gross margin of 26.8% in 2024, although recent factory openings have temporarily affected margins [3] - Cash flow management appears stable, with inventory increasing by 12.5% year-on-year to 3.67 billion yuan and accounts receivable turnover days increasing by 2 days to 64.7 days [3] Future Outlook - Revenue is expected to continue expanding rapidly in 2025, with net profit projected to grow in the mid-single digits due to ongoing efficiency improvements in new factories [4] - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 4.11 billion, 4.76 billion, and 5.49 billion yuan, respectively, with a PE ratio of 16 times for 2025 [4]