归母净利率略有提升，预计26 年行业库存可能偏低：25Q3 公司归母净利率为12.7%，环比改善0.3 个 点。虽然毛利率同比改善，但管理费用率、研发费用率同比也有所提高，因此净利率改善幅度低于毛利 率改善幅度。 考虑到全球运动鞋服行业经历23 年去库存，同时24 年、25 年补库存较为谨慎，我们预计行业26 年库存 可能会偏低，有望轻装上阵。 事件：华利集团披露25 年三季报。25Q3 公司实现营收60.2 亿元，同比-0.3%；实现归母净利润7.6 亿 元，同比-20.7%；实现扣非归母净利润8.2亿元，同比-14.8%。25 年前三季度，公司实现营收186.8 亿 元，同比+6.7%；实现归母净利润24.4 亿元，同比-14.3%。 营收同比轻微下跌，受到硫化鞋产品拖累：25Q3 公司营收同比轻微下滑。 25 年1-9 年，公司销售运动鞋1.68 亿双，同比+3.0%。25Q3 公司销售运动鞋0.53 亿双，去年同期为0.55 亿双。这主要是因为Converse 和VANS品牌硫化鞋产品面临挑战，受到终端消费环境疲弱及去库存的影 响。我们预计其他品牌客户的表现仍然维持稳健。 印尼新工厂运营改善，带动毛利 ...

来源：新浪证券-红岸工作室 11月6日，华利集团涨0.98%，成交额9217.53万元，换手率0.13%，总市值686.43亿元。 异动分析 体育产业+三胎概念+人民币贬值受益 1、华利股份从事运动鞋履的开发设计、生产与销售，是全球领先的运动鞋专业制造商，主要为Nike、 Converse、Vans、Puma、UGG、Columbia、Under Armour、HOKA ONE ONE等全球知名运动品牌提供 开发设计与制造服务。 主力持仓 主力没有控盘，筹码分布非常分散，主力成交额5482.78万，占总成交额的5.12%。 技术面：筹码平均交易成本为56.78元 该股筹码平均交易成本为56.78元，近期该股获筹码青睐，且集中度渐增；目前股价在压力位61.58和支 撑位56.40之间，可以做区间波段。 公司简介 2、公司从事运动鞋履的开发设计、生产与销售，是全球领先的运动鞋专业制造商，公司服务的品牌， 很多都有儿童系列，包括幼童系列。公司开发、制造面向幼童的运动鞋。 3、根据2024年年报，公司海外营收占比为99.80%，受益于人民币贬值。 (免责声明：分析内容来源于互联网，不构成投资建议，请投资者根据不同行情 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Huali Industrial Group [2][8]. Core Insights - Huali Group's gross margin improved sequentially in 3Q25, driven by cost optimization and profitability from new plants [3][5]. - The company experienced a slight revenue decline in 3Q25 due to customer inventory destocking, but average selling prices (ASP) increased [4][12]. - Management expects a potential restocking cycle to begin in 2026 as inventory destocking continues through 2025 [7][13]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, Huali Group reported revenue of RMB 18.68 billion, a 10.4% year-on-year increase, while 3Q25 revenue was RMB 6.02 billion, down 0.3% year-on-year [3][11]. - Gross profit for 9M25 was RMB 4.10 billion, down 15.8% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 22.0%, a decrease of 5.8 percentage points year-on-year [3][11]. - Operating profit for 9M25 was RMB 3.21 billion, down 11.8% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders for 9M25 was RMB 2.44 billion, down 14.3% year-on-year [3][11]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are RMB 24.84 billion, RMB 27.74 billion, and RMB 30.82 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.5%, 11.7%, and 11.1% [8][14]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are RMB 3.29 billion, RMB 3.96 billion, and RMB 4.50 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of -14.4%, 20.4%, and 13.6% [8][14]. Operational Insights - The company has implemented cost-control measures, reducing total headcount by about 2,000 despite ongoing factory ramp-ups [7][13]. - New factories in Sichuan and Indonesia are ramping up production as planned, contributing to improved shipment volumes [4][12]. - Management indicated that the peak of capacity expansion will occur in 2024-2025, after which capital expenditure intensity is expected to decline [7][13].

Group 1 - On November 5, a total of 43 companies were investigated by institutions, with 27 companies being researched by funds, highlighting a significant interest in specific firms such as Huali Group, Botao Bio, and Jinchengzi [1] - Huali Group received the most attention, with 13 funds participating in its research, while Botao Bio and Jinchengzi were followed by 12 and 8 funds respectively [1] - The companies investigated by funds are distributed across various sectors, with the machinery and equipment sector having the highest representation at 5 companies, followed by the pharmaceutical and biological sector and electronics sector, each with 3 companies [1] Group 2 - Among the fund-researched stocks, 12 stocks increased in value over the past 5 days, with the highest gains seen in Shuangjie Electric (24.72%), Changbao Co. (14.05%), and TCL Smart Home (12.87%) [2] - Conversely, 15 stocks experienced declines, with Lingge Technology, Shanghai Xinyang, and Xunjiexing showing the largest drops at 12.37%, 11.94%, and 9.87% respectively [2] - Notably, Shuangjie Electric saw a net inflow of 254 million yuan in the past 5 days, leading the funds' net inflow, followed by Changbao Co. and Jinggong Technology with net inflows of 81.52 million yuan and 73.01 million yuan respectively [2]

Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's gross margin improved in Q3 2025 compared to Q2 2025, but overall gross margin has declined compared to the same period last year due to new factories ramping up production and capacity adjustments [2] - Interest expenses increased significantly this year due to a rise in short-term borrowings compared to last year [4] - Cash dividends in 2021 accounted for approximately 89% of net profit, while in 2022 and 2023, the ratios were 43% and 44% respectively. The projected dividend payout for 2024 is about 70% of net profit [11] Group 2: Operational Insights - The company has established factories for Adidas in Vietnam, Indonesia, and China, with no significant discrepancies between formal and forecasted orders [5] - The production capacity utilization is flexible and adjusted based on order conditions, maintaining a high utilization rate [6] - The first factory in Indonesia has achieved profitability during the reporting period, indicating positive operational progress [7][8] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The average selling price increased year-on-year in Q3 2025, despite a decline in sales volume, driven by changes in customer and product mix [3] - The company employs a diversified brand strategy, optimizing customer and product structures to influence average selling prices [3] - The company competes effectively against established manufacturers by leveraging its comprehensive shoe-making technology and strong market reputation [9] Group 4: Future Outlook - The company plans to continue expanding production capacity in the coming years, with three out of four new factories projected to achieve profitability by the end of 2025 [10] - Future production capacity will be adjusted based on customer orders, with a focus on new factory construction and equipment upgrades [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the market index [2][5]. Core Views - The company is expected to experience structural growth in the long term within the athletic footwear industry, despite facing short-term pressures from macroeconomic factors and international trade uncertainties [5]. - The company is actively adjusting its operational strategies to expand its customer base and optimize its client structure, particularly focusing on the construction of its production base in Indonesia [5]. - As new factories become operational and cost-reduction measures are implemented, the overall gross margin is anticipated to improve [5]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenues of 18.68 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.67%, while net profit decreased by 14.34% to 2.435 billion yuan [4]. - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a gross margin of 22.19%, a slight recovery from previous quarters, although it still reflects a year-on-year decline of 4.82 percentage points [4]. - The average selling price per unit increased by 3.4% year-on-year to approximately 113.6 yuan, despite a 3.64% decline in sales volume [4]. Earnings Forecast - The projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 25.87 billion yuan, 27.97 billion yuan, and 30.81 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 7.74%, 8.12%, and 10.16% [6][12]. - The forecasted net profits for the same years are 3.29 billion yuan, 3.91 billion yuan, and 4.68 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of -14.28%, 18.72%, and 19.68% [6][12]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 2.82 yuan in 2025, 3.35 yuan in 2026, and 4.01 yuan in 2027 [6][12]. Operational Efficiency - The company has maintained stable operational capabilities, with accounts receivable increasing by 6.36% and inventory decreasing by 1.39% year-on-year [4]. - The company is focusing on improving operational efficiency across its factories, with three out of four new factories expected to meet their internal profitability targets [4].

263只创业板股公布截至10月31日最新股东户数，环比上期，股东户数下降的有110只，降幅超过一成的 有10只。 证券时报数据宝统计显示，263只创业板股公布了10月31日股东户数，与上期(10月20日)比，股东户数 下降的有110只，其中股东户数降幅超一成的有10只。股东户数环比增长的有118只。 股东户数降幅最多的是首华燃气（300483），截至10月31日最新股东户数为21736户，较10月20日下降 22.18%，筹码集中以来该股累计下跌11.65%，累计换手率为93.28%，其间主力资金净流出4197.85万 元。 其次是显盈科技（301067），截至10月31日最新股东户数为9985户，较10月20日下降20.80%，筹码集 中以来该股累计上涨10.66%，累计换手率为95.65%。 华利集团（300979）最新股东户数10800户，环比下降16.28%，筹码集中以来股价上涨17.08%，累计换 手率为3.08%。 进一步统计，有33只创业板股筹码呈连续集中的态势，相比之前各期，股东户数连续减少3期以上，股 东户数最多已连降7期。 资金面上，部分筹码集中股获杠杆资金青睐，截至11月4日，杠杆资金加 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the textile and apparel industry [6] Core Insights - The textile and apparel industry is experiencing a weak recovery, with the jewelry sector showing better growth compared to clothing [14] - The domestic sportswear market is expected to maintain long-term growth resilience despite short-term fluctuations in offline sales [1] - The report highlights the importance of inventory management and the impact of promotional events on sales performance [1][2][26] Summary by Sections 1. Sports Footwear and Apparel - The sports footwear and apparel sector showed weaker performance in Q3 2025 compared to Q2 but still outperformed the overall apparel market [1] - Offline sales for domestic sports brands remain weak, while e-commerce channels are performing better [1] - Inventory levels for domestic sports brands increased in Q3 due to preparations for the National Day holiday and Double Eleven sales [1] - Adidas reported a 6% year-on-year revenue growth in Greater China for Q3 2025, while Nike's sales in the region declined [1][18] 2. Brand Apparel - The brand apparel sector showed improvement in Q3 2025, with revenue and net profit growth of 3.1% and 23.2% respectively, driven by a low base effect [2] - The home textile segment benefited from product updates, while the fashion apparel category faced weak demand due to low consumer confidence [2] - The report anticipates continued reasonable expense management and stable profit growth for some companies in Q4 2025 [2] 3. Textile Manufacturing - Revenue for key textile manufacturing companies remained relatively stable, with a slight decline in net profit [3] - Companies with different customer structures showed varied performance, with some like Huayi Group achieving a 7% revenue growth by expanding their client base [3] - The report suggests that as inventory levels normalize, there may be a recovery in orders from upstream manufacturing companies [3] 4. Gold and Jewelry - The gold and jewelry sector experienced performance differentiation, with retail sales of gold and silver jewelry increasing by 11.5% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2025 [4] - Companies with fewer stores or a direct sales model reported excellent revenue growth, with some like Chao Hong Ji and Man Ka Long achieving revenue increases of 28.3% and 29.3% respectively [4] - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong product and channel capabilities in the jewelry sector [4] 5. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies based on their performance and market positioning, including Shenzhou International, Anta Sports, Li Ning, and Chow Tai Fook, highlighting their respective PE ratios for 2025 [4][9]

Core Insights - The number of shareholders for the company decreased to 10,800 as of October 31, representing a decline of 2,100 shareholders or 16.28% compared to the previous period [2] - The closing price of the stock was 59.56 yuan, reflecting an increase of 0.42%, with a cumulative increase of 17.08% since the concentration of shares began [2] - The latest margin trading data shows a total margin balance of 86.92 million yuan, with a financing balance of 85.03 million yuan, indicating a reduction of 33.29 million yuan or 28.14% during the same period [2] - The company reported a total revenue of 18.68 billion yuan for the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 6.67%, while net profit was 2.43 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.34% [2] - The basic earnings per share were 2.09 yuan, and the weighted average return on equity was 14.13% [2] - In the past month, 20 institutions have given buy ratings for the stock, with the highest target price set at 70.34 yuan by China International Capital Corporation on October 30 [2]

Core Insights - Huali Group stated that as of October 31, 2025, the number of shareholders is expected to be approximately 10,800 [2] Company Summary - The company has provided a projection regarding its shareholder count, indicating a stable growth in investor interest [2]