Core Viewpoint - U.S. equity futures are showing a mixed to positive outlook as investors react to recent corporate earnings, particularly in the technology sector, while also anticipating important economic data releases [1] Premarket Trading and Futures Movements - U.S. stock futures are generally higher, with Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.4%, S&P 500 futures up 0.3%, and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures up 0.1% [2] - The S&P 500 finished flat in the previous session, while the Nasdaq Composite rose by 0.2%, indicating a cautious optimism driven by positive earnings reports from tech companies [2] Current Market Indexes and Trends - The S&P 500 briefly surpassed 7,000 before settling lower, while the Nasdaq Composite showed strength, particularly from semiconductor stocks like Texas Instruments, which surged 9.9% [3] - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates at 3.5%-3.75% and Chair Powell's comments on inflation are influencing market sentiment [3] Upcoming Market Events - Investors are closely monitoring a busy calendar of economic data and corporate earnings for further market direction [4] Earnings Releases - Key companies reporting earnings include Mastercard, Caterpillar, Thermo Fisher, Honeywell, Lockheed Martin, Sanofi, and Blackstone before market open, with Apple, Visa, and Western Digital reporting after market close [5] Economic Data Announcements - The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the revised Productivity and Costs report for Q3 2025, and the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model will update its GDP growth estimate, which was last at 5.4% for Q4 2025 [6] Policy Decisions - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to hold interest rates steady reflects a cautious approach, with Chair Powell noting improvements in the economic outlook but highlighting inflation concerns [7] Major Stock News and Developments - Microsoft shares fell 6.1% in premarket trading despite beating earnings estimates, raising concerns about capital spending and Azure growth [9] - Meta Platforms saw a 7.0% increase in after-hours trading due to strong advertising revenue [9] - Tesla gained 1.9% as investors focused on its future plans despite softer profits [9] - Sanofi announced a three-year profitability improvement program targeting 10% EBITDA by 2028 [10]

最近，上线仅3个多月的苹果iPhone Air大降价引起关注。原价7999元起的iPhone Air直降2000元，叠加补贴到手价5499元起。 此前报道：不到一周就降价2500元？网友：退钱！ 如此大幅降价背后，源于销量的遇冷。2025年10月22日，iPhone Air在中国上市，但市场表现低迷。供应链数据显示，截至2026年1月24日，iPhone Air累 计激活量不到20万台，销量不及预期。 iPhone Air"不好卖"，eSIM卡技术是主要困境之一。许多网友吐槽，eSIM卡办理流程"太麻烦"，还不如实体卡方便。记者发现，在华强北已有针对 iPhoneAir改卡槽的服务，直接可以"改装"成实体卡槽。不过商家表示技术不成熟，建议谨慎考虑。 iPhone Air为何销量遇冷？在把手机做薄这一块，为何不容易？ 机身太薄，eSIM卡槽"爆改"也难 为此，华强北出现了"爆改"eSIM卡的服务，价格400元~600元，不过仅有少数几家表示可以改。 近日，记者走访华强北发现，能提供改装iPhone Air的eSIM卡服务的商家并不多，大部分表示机身太薄了改不了。能改的商家也表示目前技术还不成熟， 需要拆机、装卡 ...

Group 1: Market Performance - Major indices futures showed positive movement with Dow futures up 0.08%, S&P 500 futures up 0.17%, and Nasdaq futures up 0.23% [1] Group 2: Company Earnings Reports - Meta reported Q4 2025 revenue of $59.893 billion, a 24% year-over-year increase, exceeding analyst expectations of $58.42 billion; net profit was $22.768 billion, up 9%, with diluted EPS of $8.88, up 11% [2] - Microsoft reported Q2 2026 revenue and profit above expectations, with Azure cloud revenue growing 38% year-over-year, matching analyst forecasts; however, growth slowed by 1 percentage point from the previous quarter [3] - IBM's Q4 2025 revenue was $19.69 billion, a 12% increase year-over-year, with software revenue at $9.03 billion, up 14%, and consulting revenue at $5.35 billion, up 3.4%; free cash flow grew 23% to $7.55 billion [5] Group 3: Strategic Changes and Investments - Tesla announced plans to halt production of Model S and Model X to make way for Optimus robot production lines, despite a 3% year-over-year revenue decline to $24.901 billion in Q4 2025 [4] - Amazon confirmed layoffs of approximately 16,000 corporate positions, marking the second round of significant layoffs since October, totaling 30,000 positions or about 10% of its corporate and tech workforce [6] - Nvidia, Microsoft, and Amazon are reportedly in discussions to invest up to $60 billion in OpenAI, with Nvidia considering up to $30 billion, Microsoft planning under $10 billion, and Amazon potentially exceeding $10 billion [7] Group 4: Regulatory Issues - Deutsche Bank's Frankfurt office was raided by German prosecutors in connection with a money laundering investigation, with the bank cooperating with authorities [8]

Core Insights - Apple is experiencing pressure on profitability due to rising memory chip prices, which is expected to impact the current quarter more significantly than the previous holiday quarter [1][2] - Demand for the iPhone 17 has surged, particularly in China and India, leading to an increased need for memory chips [3] - Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, which dominate the DRAM chip market, have warned that the worsening shortage of DRAM chips will affect computer and smartphone manufacturers, leading to margin pressure and potential supply chain disruptions [4] Industry Trends - The shift towards building AI infrastructure has led chipmakers to prioritize high-bandwidth memory (HBM) for AI servers, resulting in a squeeze on conventional DRAM chip supply [5] - Manufacturers are adjusting their product strategies in response to the memory chip price surge, with some adopting more conservative shipment plans and considering adjustments to memory chip specifications [6] - Research firms IDC and Counterpoint predict a decline in global smartphone sales by at least 2% this year, reversing earlier growth forecasts, while the PC market is expected to shrink by at least 4.9% in 2026 [6]

Market Overview - U.S. stock futures rose on Thursday following a mixed close on Wednesday, with major benchmark indices showing positive movement [1] - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 3.5%–3.75%, pausing its easing cycle after three rate cuts last year [1] Federal Reserve Insights - Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized a data-driven approach to decision-making, avoiding political criticisms during a press conference [2] - The 10-year Treasury bond yielded 4.26%, while the two-year bond was at 3.58%, with an 86.5% likelihood of unchanged interest rates in March according to CME Group's FedWatch tool [3] Stock Performance - Dow Jones increased by 0.15%, S&P 500 by 0.27%, Nasdaq 100 by 0.37%, and Russell 2000 by 0.26% [3] - Microsoft (MSFT) shows a weak price trend across all time frames but maintains a good quality ranking [3] - Tesla (TSLA) has a stronger long-term price trend but a weak short-term trend with a poor value ranking [4] - Meta Platforms (META) maintains a strong price trend across all time frames with a good quality ranking [5] - International Business Machines (IBM) shows a stronger price trend across all time frames with a solid quality ranking [6] - Apple Inc. (AAPL) is projected to post quarterly earnings of $2.67 per share on revenue of $138.42 billion, with a stronger long-term price trend but weak short and medium-term trends [8] Sector Performance - Energy and information technology stocks closed higher, while real estate, consumer staples, and health care sectors recorded the largest losses on Wednesday [9] Analyst Insights - BlackRock maintains a constructive economic outlook, citing "immutable economic laws" as stabilizers against extreme policy shifts [10] - The firm expects the Federal Reserve to adopt a "wait-and-see" stance, leaving interest rates unchanged due to mixed economic signals [11] - BlackRock remains overweight on U.S. equities, viewing the "AI buildout" as a significant structural driver, while forecasting record U.S. investment-grade bond issuance of $1.85 trillion this year [11] - Increased leverage among mega-cap tech firms is noted, with a preference for high-yield bonds over investment-grade bonds due to potential vulnerabilities in the financial system [12] Commodities and Global Markets - Crude oil futures rose by 2.55% to approximately $64.82 per barrel, while Gold Spot increased by 1.88% to around $5,519.32 per ounce [14] - Bitcoin (BTC) traded 1.57% lower at $87,847.25 per coin [14] Economic Data - Upcoming economic data includes initial jobless claims, delayed U.S. trade deficit report, and revised U.S. productivity data [15]

Core Viewpoint - Apple is facing a significant sell-off in early 2026, down 8.8% year to date, making it the second-worst performer in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, amid concerns over its AI software upgrades and the upcoming iPhone 18 launch [1] Group 1: Stock Performance and Market Context - Apple's stock performance should be evaluated in context; it previously experienced a sell-off in early 2025 due to tariff fears but rebounded with a 32.5% gain in the latter half of the year, adding over $1 trillion in market cap [2] - Despite the recent pullback, Apple's stock is still up significantly over the last seven months, indicating that investors must assess the sustainability of its gains [3] Group 2: AI Integration and Product Development - Apple is integrating Google's Gemini models into its next generation of Foundation Models, with a Gemini-powered Siri expected to launch as soon as February [4] - The introduction of a voice-controlled AI assistant is seen as a strategic move to make AI more accessible to users, allowing for a gradual implementation of AI features [5] - Apple is known for its deliberate product launches, which can benefit long-term investors; the iPhone 17, released in September 2025, saw strong demand and earnings growth despite lacking significant AI features [6][7] Group 3: Financial Performance and Margins - Apple's product revenue grew by 4.1% in fiscal 2025, while services revenue increased by 13.5%, with products achieving a gross margin of 36.8% and services at 75.4% [10] - The growth of services, now comprising 26.2% of total sales, suggests potential for further margin expansion [10] - Overall, Apple's recent results indicate solid performance, with expectations for a significant year ahead driven by AI software upgrades and a new iPhone designed for AI integration [11] Group 4: Valuation and Competitive Landscape - Despite improving earnings and margins, Apple's valuation remains high, with a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 30.9, which is more expensive than competitors like Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Meta [15] - Analysts project earnings growth of only 10.3% in fiscal 2026 and 10.5% in fiscal 2027, raising concerns about the stock's attractiveness relative to its valuation [13] - The company's heavy reliance on consumer spending poses risks, especially as sales in China have declined and U.S. consumers may be hesitant to pay higher prices for AI-integrated devices [16][17] Group 5: Investment Considerations - While Apple is considered a decent stock to buy in 2026, it is not viewed as a compelling opportunity compared to other high-growth stocks like Broadcom or more balanced earnings growth from Microsoft [18] - Investors who believe in Apple's potential to leverage AI may still consider purchasing shares, especially given its strong balance sheet and consistent free cash flow generation [20] - Overall, buying Apple after its recent pullback may not be a bad idea, but it is not seen as a strong buying opportunity [21]

如果您希望可以时常见面，欢迎标星收藏哦~ 市场传出，苹果(Apple Inc.)及供应商去(2025)年严重错估消费者对iPhone Air的需求，如今正在 结算报废零件的损失，粗估金额可能有数亿美元之谱。 独立科技记者Tim Culpan 28日透过个人的Substack电子报订阅平台指出，消息显示尽管苹果已在 去年10月下令减产，该公司与供应商手中仍累积了最多150万台iPhone Air的零组件。 更惨的是，据传部分零件无法转作他用，或许只有报废一途。要厘清的是，这不代表有150万支 iPhone需要报废，而是指iPhone Air专用的特定零件。 根据Culpan分析，那些无法重新利用的零件所引发的资产减损金额，应落在数亿美元左右(low hundreds of millions of dollars)。 iPhone在2025年7-9月的整体销售额多达490亿美元、10-12月 预估销售额更有望达约800亿美元，区区数亿美元其实不算严重。 Culpan直指，真正的问题应该是，苹果何以这么不了解自家顾客的需求，以及这场混乱会对供应 链产生什么影响。据说，虽然部分供应商需自行承担损失，但苹果会吸收大部分 ...

Core Viewpoint - Apple's stock price is under pressure as investors assess the impact of rapidly rising storage chip prices on its profitability, with earnings results expected soon [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Since reaching a peak on December 2, Apple's stock has declined over 10%, making it the worst performer among the seven major tech stocks and the largest drag on the S&P 500 index during the same period [1] - The stock has experienced eight consecutive weeks of decline, marking the longest streak since 1993 [1] Group 2: Market Concerns - The recent sell-off is partly driven by concerns that soaring storage chip costs will squeeze Apple's profit margins and earnings [1] - This issue has overshadowed positive developments in Apple's AI initiatives and is expected to become more pronounced when supply contracts expire in the second half of 2026 [1] Group 3: Analyst Insights - Analyst Shaan Bhatti, who holds a significant amount of Apple shares, noted that while Apple has faced storage chip price pressures before, the current rate of increase is unprecedented [1] - There is a clear market uncertainty, with fears that more negative news regarding storage chips may emerge [1]

Core Viewpoint - The current interest in artificial intelligence (AI) is characterized as a bubble, with expectations of significant future losses for most investors [2]. Group 1: Historical Context of Technology Bubbles - Numerous technology bubbles have occurred throughout history, with revolutionary innovations often leading to greater speculative bubbles [3]. - Historical examples include the British railway mania, the internet boom, and the SPAC bubble, which share common characteristics that can be applied to the current AI situation [3][4]. Group 2: Characteristics of the Current AI Bubble - The emergence of AI has generated extravagant claims, with proponents suggesting it will solve major global issues and transform economies [9]. - There is a climate of easy money, with low interest rates encouraging speculative investments in AI, similar to past bubbles [11][12]. - Investor optimism is high, with significant disparities between investor sentiment and general public sentiment, driven by economic inequality [19][22]. - A surge in publications and media coverage promoting AI has created a narrative that fuels speculation, reminiscent of past technological manias [25][23]. Group 3: Investment Trends and Valuations - AI startups raised over $200 billion in 2025, with significant capital flowing into private markets rather than public equity [32][33]. - Valuations in the AI sector are extremely high, with companies like OpenAI and Anthropic seeing massive increases in their valuations [41]. - The current market cap to GDP ratio and cyclically-adjusted price-to-earnings (CAPE) ratios indicate that U.S. equities are overpriced, with the CAPE reaching 40 [34][40]. Group 4: Risks and Challenges - The AI technology remains immature, with many experts doubting its ability to achieve artificial general intelligence (AGI) in the near future [42][46]. - There is a significant overcommitment of capital in the AI sector, leading to concerns about future returns and profitability [49][53]. - Unscrupulous behavior and dubious accounting practices are present in the AI ecosystem, reminiscent of past bubbles [54][59]. Group 5: Potential Outcomes - The investment boom in AI may be nearing its end, with signs of financial strain among major players and rising costs impacting profitability [65][66]. - Historical patterns suggest that once the bubble bursts, significant corporate bankruptcies and a shakeout phase will follow, leading to a consolidation in the industry [61][62].

Core Insights - The Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund achieved a 15.1% annual return in 2025, driven by strong performances in technology and financial sectors, continuing its reliance on large tech stocks [1] - The fund, managed by the Norwegian Central Bank Investment Management (NBIM), reported a stock investment return of 19.3%, with other asset classes also showing growth [1] - Despite solid overall performance, the fund lagged its benchmark index by 28 basis points [1] Group 1: Performance Highlights - Large tech stocks have consistently dominated the fund's performance in recent quarters, with NBIM holding approximately 1.5% of listed shares in around 7,200 companies globally [2] - The fund's largest holdings include major U.S. tech giants such as Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon [2] - Other asset classes also recorded positive returns, with fixed income investments yielding 5.4% and private real estate investments returning 4.4% [2] - The most notable performance came from private renewable energy infrastructure investments, which achieved a return rate of 18.1% [2] Group 2: Geographical Concentration Concerns - Over half of the fund's assets are concentrated in the U.S., primarily in stocks and bonds, raising concerns among experts due to recent geopolitical tensions [3] - An expert panel appointed by the government has recommended that the fund prepare for increasing geopolitical instability, particularly in light of recent comments from former President Trump regarding Greenland [3] - The expert panel advised against limiting the fund's investment scope, suggesting that NBIM should maintain its global and diversified investment strategy while addressing geopolitical risks [3]