Summary of Automatic Data Processing (ADP) 2025 Conference Company Overview - **Company**: Automatic Data Processing (ADP) - **Industry**: Human Capital Management (HCM) and Payroll Services Key Points Macro Environment - The macroeconomic environment is characterized by volatility but shows a consistent trend of gradual slowing growth over the past six to twelve months [7][13] - Employment growth remains positive, with strong wage growth surpassing expectations for fiscal year 2025 [8] - New business formations are healthy, while bankruptcy rates are edging up but remain manageable compared to pre-COVID levels [10][11] Revenue Growth and Market Position - ADP aims for mid-term revenue growth of 6% to 7%, which is above the industry average of mid-single digits [14] - The total addressable market for ADP is estimated at $180 billion, with ADP currently holding approximately 10-11% market share [15] - The company has opportunities for growth in various segments, including retirement services and insurance offerings, which have low penetration rates [16] Sales and Client Retention - Sales cycles have elongated, but the demand for ADP's services remains strong [9] - Client retention improved to 92.1% in fiscal year 2025, with potential for further growth despite challenges in the down market [48][50] - The company is investing in expanding its sales force and enhancing sales capabilities to drive growth [35][39] Product Development and Innovation - The launch of new products like Lyric and the acquisition of Workforce Software are expected to contribute significantly to revenue growth [27][29] - ADP's distribution ecosystem, including over 10,000 sellers, is a key asset that enhances its market reach [30][33] Economic Outlook and Guidance - The company anticipates a gradual slowing economy with potential headwinds affecting growth, but remains committed to achieving medium-term objectives [22][25] - Current year guidance reflects a cautious outlook, with expectations of 5% to 6% revenue growth for fiscal year 2026 [19] Interest Rate Impact - ADP's financial model is less sensitive to short-term interest rate changes, with a potential net tailwind from broader economic improvements if rates are cut [62][65] Margin Expansion - ADP has experienced significant margin expansion over the past five years, with expectations for continued improvement driven by growth and productivity initiatives [68][69] Conclusion - ADP is well-positioned in the HCM market with a strong focus on client service, product innovation, and strategic growth initiatives, despite facing macroeconomic challenges and a competitive landscape [53][70]

Core Insights - The slowdown in hiring by U.S. companies may be attributed to various factors such as labor shortages, lack of consumer confidence, and supply chain disruptions [1] Group 1 - U.S. companies are experiencing a slowdown in recruitment activities [1] - Factors contributing to this slowdown include labor shortages, which indicate a tight labor market [1] - Consumer confidence is reportedly low, which may affect hiring decisions [1] - Supply chain disruptions are also impacting the ability of companies to hire effectively [1]

Core Insights - Private sector employment increased by 54,000 jobs in August 2025, with a year-over-year pay increase of 4.4% [1][9] - The ADP National Employment Report provides an independent measure of the labor market based on anonymized payroll data from over 26 million private-sector employees in the U.S. [2] Employment Changes - Job growth was primarily in the service-providing sector, which added 42,000 jobs, while the goods-producing sector added 13,000 jobs [5] - The leisure and hospitality industry saw significant growth, adding 50,000 jobs, while construction added 16,000 jobs [4][7] - The report highlighted a month-over-month slowdown in hiring, attributed to factors such as labor shortages and consumer uncertainty [3] Regional Employment Changes - Employment changes by region included: Northeast (+15,000), Midwest (+14,000), South (+4,000), and West (+8,000) [6][8] - Specific regional performance showed variations, with the East North Central region adding 17,000 jobs, while the West North Central region lost 3,000 jobs [7] Establishment Size Impact - Job additions by establishment size were: small establishments (+12,000), medium establishments (+25,000), and large establishments (+18,000) [8] - Large establishments (500+ employees) contributed 18,000 jobs to the overall increase [8] Pay Insights - Year-over-year pay growth for job-stayers was 4.4%, while job-changers experienced a higher growth rate of 7.1% [9][13] - Pay growth varied by industry, with financial activities showing a 5.1% increase and leisure/hospitality at 4.5% [13][20]

Core Insights - ADP has introduced new AI-powered features aimed at addressing operational challenges in HR, particularly focusing on payroll errors, analytics, and administrative burdens [1][2][3] Group 1: AI Features and Benefits - The new features utilize ADP Assist to enhance efficiency in HR by tackling time-consuming tasks and improving accuracy in payroll processing [2][4] - Key functionalities include anomaly detection in payroll data, instant responses to HR inquiries, real-time visibility into workforce trends, compliance monitoring, and personalized employee development recommendations [6][7] Group 2: Client-Centered Approach - ADP's AI development is client-focused, with features tested rigorously based on client feedback, ensuring solutions are grounded in real-world complexities [5][6] - The company emphasizes a commitment to solving actual HR challenges rather than merely following industry trends, showcasing the practical application of AI to deliver measurable value [7] Group 3: Data and Market Reach - ADP's AI capabilities draw from extensive payroll and HR data insights, covering over 1.1 million companies across more than 140 countries, enabling informed decision-making for HR leaders [6][8] - The integration of AI across various HR functions provides a unified experience that evolves with user interactions while maintaining user control over critical decisions [7]

Group 1 - The logistics sector has seen significant engagement from investors, particularly in the ASEAN and US markets [1] - Investment diversification has become a strategy for individuals, moving away from traditional savings in banks and properties [1] - The popularity of insurance companies in the Philippines has influenced investment choices since 2014 [1] Group 2 - Initial investments were made in blue-chip companies, but there has been a shift towards a diversified portfolio across various industries and market capitalizations [1] - The US market has been entered since 2020, with a focus on banks, hotels, shipping, and logistics companies [1] - The use of analytical tools and comparisons between the US and Philippine markets has enhanced investment strategies [1]

Group 1 - The upcoming week is significant for the stock market due to the release of major employment reports, including Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) and private-sector payrolls from ADP [1][2] - Weekly Jobless Claims have shown consistency, currently around 230K, with longer-term claims remaining above 1.94 million for 12 consecutive weeks [3] - The Employment Situation report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is expected to show modest job growth of +75K new jobs, which is similar to the previous month's report [4][5] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates in response to lower job numbers, indicating that even a surprise increase in job growth would not alter their plans [6] - The S&P Manufacturing PMI and ISM Manufacturing reports for August are anticipated, with S&P expected to remain at 53.3 and ISM expected to rise to 48.5% [7] - Pre-market futures are declining, with major indexes falling below levels from five workdays ago, and bond yields have surged, indicating market volatility [8]

Core Viewpoint - Automatic Data Processing (ADP) reported strong fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 results, with earnings and revenues exceeding estimates, but has seen a recent decline in share performance compared to the S&P 500 [1][2]. Financial Performance - ADP's earnings per share (EPS) for Q4 fiscal 2025 was $2.26, beating the consensus estimate by 1.8% and increasing 8.1% year-over-year [2]. - Total revenues reached $5.1 billion, surpassing estimates by 1.5% and growing 5.7% year-over-year [2]. Segmental Results - Employer Services generated revenues of $3.5 billion, an 8% increase on a reported basis but missed the estimate of $3.8 billion [3]. - PEO Services revenues rose 9% year-over-year to $1.2 billion, falling short of the $1.7 billion estimate [3]. - Average worksite employees paid by PEO Services increased by 3% to 761,000 [3]. Interest and Client Funds - Interest on funds held for clients grew 11% year-over-year to $308 million, missing the estimate of $342.4 million [4]. - The average client funds balance increased by 6% to $38.1 billion, with the average interest yield expanding by 20 basis points to 3.2% [4]. Margins - Adjusted EBIT rose 9% year-over-year to $5.3 billion, with the adjusted EBIT margin increasing by 50 basis points to 26% [5]. - The margin for Employer Services increased by 50 basis points, while PEO Services saw a decrease of 20 basis points [5]. Balance Sheet and Cash Flow - At the end of Q4 fiscal 2025, ADP had cash and cash equivalents of $3.3 billion, up from $2.7 billion in the previous quarter [6]. - Long-term debt increased to $4 billion from $3 billion in the preceding quarter [6]. - The company generated $1.4 billion in cash from operating activities during the quarter [6]. Fiscal 2025 Outlook - ADP lowered its revenue growth guidance for fiscal 2025 to 5-6% from the previous 6-7% [7]. - Adjusted EPS growth guidance was updated to 8-10% from 8-9% [7]. - The adjusted effective tax rate is estimated at 23%, and the guidance for adjusted EBIT margin was raised to 50-70 basis points [7]. Estimate Trends - There has been a downward trend in estimates for ADP, indicating a shift in expectations [10][12]. - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), suggesting an expectation of in-line returns in the coming months [12].

Economic Overview - Pre-market futures are improving following the release of major economic numbers, despite a drawback in EU markets due to rising unemployment and inflation in Germany [1] - U.S. indexes are experiencing volatility, with the small-cap Russell 2000 showing gains while other major indexes remain in the red [1] PCE and Inflation Metrics - July Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) figures were in-line with expectations, indicating no threat to the anticipated 25 basis point rate cut for the September Fed meeting [2] - Personal Income for July increased by 0.4%, the strongest since April, while Personal Spending rose by 0.5%, marking the highest increase since March [3] - The headline PCE Index showed a month-over-month increase of 0.2%, the lowest since May, with a year-over-year increase of 2.6%, consistent with the previous month [4] - Core PCE, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.3% month-over-month and 2.9% year-over-year, indicating stability in inflation metrics [5] Employment Data - July's non-farm payrolls increased by 73,000, surpassing the downwardly revised four-month average of 54,000, but significantly lower than the previous year's average of 122,000 [8] - The Fed's focus appears to be shifting from inflation to employment concerns, as weakening employment data is influencing the outlook for interest rates [9] Trade and Inventory Data - Advanced Trade in Goods for July showed a disappointing deficit of $103 billion, more than $10 billion lower than anticipated [10] - Advanced Retail Inventories and Wholesale Inventories both reported a month-over-month increase of 0.2%, indicating stable inventory levels in the current tariff environment [11] Market Expectations - The upcoming week will feature new jobs reports, including July JOLTS numbers and private-sector payrolls from ADP, with the significant BLS non-farm payrolls report expected next week [12]

Economic Overview - Pre-market futures are improving following the release of major economic numbers, despite a drawback in EU markets due to rising unemployment and inflation in Germany [1] - U.S. indexes are experiencing volatility, with the small-cap Russell 2000 showing gains while other major indexes remain in the red [1] PCE and Inflation Metrics - July Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) figures were in-line with expectations, indicating no hindrance to the anticipated 25 basis point rate cut for the September Fed meeting [2] - Personal Income for July increased by 0.4%, the strongest since April, while Personal Spending rose by 0.5%, marking the highest increase since March [3] - The headline PCE Index showed a month-over-month increase of 0.2%, the lowest since May, with a year-over-year increase of 2.6%, consistent with the previous month [4] - Core PCE, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.3% month-over-month and 2.9% year-over-year, indicating stability in inflation metrics [5] Employment and Economic Indicators - Fed Chair Jerome Powell's focus has shifted from inflation to employment concerns, with July's non-farm payrolls showing an increase of 73K, which is below the previous four-month average of 54K [8] - A significant upward revision in PCE would be necessary to alter the current outlook, as weakening employment is influencing the decision for a rate cut [9] Trade and Inventory Data - Advanced Trade in Goods for July reported a deficit of $103 billion, which was more than $10 billion lower than anticipated [10] - Advanced Retail Inventories and Wholesale Inventories both reported a month-over-month increase of 0.2%, indicating stable inventory levels [11] Market Expectations - The upcoming week will feature new jobs reports, including July JOLTS numbers and private-sector payrolls from ADP, leading up to the significant BLS non-farm payrolls report [12]

Core Viewpoint - Investors on Wall Street are increasingly considering reducing their reliance on government economic data due to concerns over potential political influence on the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data following President Trump's dismissal of its head and allegations of data manipulation [1][2][4] Group 1: Shift to Private Data Sources - Wall Street strategists are planning to increase their reliance on private data sources such as ADP Research's employment reports and Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc.'s layoff data [1][2] - Philip Petursson, Chief Investment Strategist at IG Wealth Management, expressed concerns about the future effectiveness of government data due to the political turmoil surrounding the BLS [2] - Michael O'Rourke, Chief Market Strategist at Jonestrading, indicated that the situation looks "very bad" and plans to focus more on private data sources [2] Group 2: Concerns Over Data Politicalization - Investors believe that if government data becomes politicized, private data sources will help them quickly identify issues [4] - Brian Jacobsen, Chief Economist at Annex Wealth Management, stated that private data serves as a check against official data, allowing for cross-validation [4] - Donald Ellenberger, Senior Portfolio Manager at Federated Hermes, warned that if the Trump administration is seen as interfering with reporting procedures, the usefulness of government reports will diminish [4] Group 3: Current State of BLS Data - The BLS data has its own issues, including funding shortages leading to personnel shortages and outdated data collection methods, which have decreased reliability [5] - The response rate for surveys has been declining over the years, and the magnitude of data revisions has been increasing [5]