Welcome back to Squawk on the Street. Well, America's biggest banks are on a winning streak. Wells, Goldman, Morman Stanley, and more are just inches from hitting their new all-time highs after passing the Fed's latest stress tests late last week and boosting shareholder payouts yesterday after uh the close.Those are the how far they are from all-time highs as we stand, but they're having a decent couple of trading sessions. So what's uh on the deck for banks in the second half of the year. UBS managing dir ...

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's 2025 stress test confirmed that all 22 large U.S. banks passed, indicating strong capital positions and resilience against economic downturns [2] - Major banks are increasing shareholder returns through dividends and share repurchase programs following the stress test results [1][8] Bank Payout Increases - JPMorgan plans to raise its quarterly common stock dividend by 7.1% to $1.50 per share and has authorized a $50 billion share repurchase program [4][9] - Bank of America will increase its quarterly common stock dividend by 7.6% to $0.28 per share [5] - Goldman Sachs intends to raise its dividend by 33.3% to $4 per share [5] - Morgan Stanley plans to increase its quarterly common stock dividend by 7.5% to $1 per share and has reauthorized a $20 billion share repurchase program with no expiration date [6][9] - Wells Fargo aims to hike its dividend by 12.5% to $0.45 per share, pending board approval [7] - PNC Financial is recommending a 6% increase in its quarterly cash dividend to $1.70 per share [7] - State Street plans to raise its dividend by 11% to $0.84, while Bank of New York Mellon expects a 13% increase to $0.53 per share [7] Implications for Shareholder Returns - The positive performance in the stress test and subsequent dividend and buyback announcements reflect robust financial health among major banks [8] - These actions are expected to enhance shareholder returns and boost investor confidence, potentially leading to an increase in stock prices [8]

Market Overview - US stock index futures showed mixed results with Dow futures up 0.19% and S&P 500 futures up 0.10%, while Nasdaq futures fell 0.01% [1] - European indices also experienced gains, with Germany's DAX up 0.17%, UK's FTSE 100 up 0.25%, France's CAC40 up 1.08%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 up 0.53% [2][3] Oil Prices - WTI crude oil rose by 0.89% to $66.03 per barrel, while Brent crude oil also increased by 0.89% to $67.71 per barrel [3][4] Employment Data - The ADP employment report is set to be released, with expectations of an increase of 95,000 jobs in June, following a disappointing gain of 37,000 in May [5] - The job market remains strong, leading to rising US Treasury yields, with the 10-year yield climbing to 4.28% [6] Legislative Developments - The Senate passed the "Big and Beautiful" bill, which includes significant tax cuts and increased military spending, potentially adding $3.3 trillion to the national debt [6] - The "Big Beautiful Act" also includes a tax credit increase for semiconductor manufacturing from 25% to 35%, aimed at boosting domestic production [7] Stock Market Reactions - Solar stocks surged following the Senate's decision to eliminate consumption taxes on wind and solar projects, with Shoals Technologies rising nearly 24% [11] - Jeff Bezos sold $736.7 million worth of Amazon stock as part of a pre-planned trading strategy [9] Company-Specific News - Ford's electric vehicle sales fell by 31.4% in Q2 due to the suspension of the Mustang Mach-E sales over safety concerns [12] - Intel plans to halt external sales of its 18A process technology, focusing instead on its 14A advanced process to attract major clients [10] - Major banks, including JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs, increased dividends after passing the Federal Reserve's stress tests [13]

Group 1 - A significant shift in investor sentiment is observed, with 34% of investors increasing their holdings in Eurozone stocks and 36% reducing their exposure to US stocks [1][3] - The Stoxx Europe 600 index rose by 7% in the first half of the year, outperforming the S&P 500 index, which increased by 5%, indicating a recovery in European markets after a prolonged downturn [1][3] - Over $46 billion has flowed into European-focused equity funds since the beginning of 2025, contrasting sharply with a $66 billion outflow from European equities last year [3][6] Group 2 - Analysts predict that the trend of capital flowing from US to European assets will continue, driven by concerns over US fiscal policies and a more favorable investment environment in Europe [1][4] - The European Central Bank's aggressive rate cuts and increased government spending are expected to enhance the attractiveness of European investments [5][6] - European equities are currently trading at a valuation that is approximately 35% lower than US equities, making them appealing to investors [6][7] Group 3 - The demand for European assets is particularly strong among US investors, as they seek to diversify their portfolios amid rising political risks and a depreciating dollar [4][5] - The shift in investment strategy is also reflected in the bond market, with over $42 billion flowing into European bond funds compared to only $5.6 billion into US Treasury funds [3][6] - The outlook for European corporate bonds remains positive, supported by strong fundamentals and an attractive yield compared to US corporate bonds [6][7] Group 4 - The European market is experiencing a transformation, with a focus on sectors such as defense, industrials, and electrification, which are expected to be key long-term investment themes [5][8] - The emergence of "new core" companies in Europe, which exhibit strong growth and lower valuations compared to traditional firms, presents additional investment opportunities [8][9] - The volatility in the European market, coupled with regional and sectoral performance disparities, creates fertile ground for long/short investment strategies [7][9]

智通财经APP获悉，尽管全球经济增长放缓，新兴市场(EM)资产却在2025年上半年交出亮眼成绩单。美国银 行对此在一份标题为《新兴市场信念：旧时代已逝，新时代万岁》的研报中表示，新兴市场本地货币资产年 内回报率超10%，硬通货债务表现也跑赢美国国债。然而，传统基金流向数据却未能反映这一趋势，凸显市 场认知与实际表现的"断层"。总的来说，美银继续维持自总统就职日(1月21日)以来对新兴市场的结构性看多 观点。 资金流入的"隐形繁荣" 年初至今，新兴市场资产表现突出，并且自2020年以来，新兴市场债务回报率持续高于美国国债。 跨市场投资者的崛起得益于新兴市场基本面的改善和信用评级的提升。目前，新兴市场债务平均评级达 BBB-级，为历史最高水平，投资级(IG)债券占比稳定在60%。这使得更多全球非专业投资者能够参与新兴市 场投资。此外，新兴市场基准指数中不同信用风险的国家债券混合，跨市场投资者可更灵活地挑选符合自身 投资组合的资产，如投资级投资者关注沙特阿拉伯、匈牙利等溢价较高的优质主权债，高收益投资者则看重 新兴市场债券与美国公司债的低相关性带来的分散化优势。 美元风向转变：从阻力转为助力 不过，传统基金流入数据 ...

Core Viewpoint - Major U.S. banks have announced increases in their third-quarter dividends and initiated new stock buyback plans following the Federal Reserve's annual stress tests, reflecting strong financial performance and confidence in capital distribution [1][2]. Group 1: Dividend Increases and Buyback Plans - JPMorgan Chase raised its quarterly dividend from $1.40 to $1.50 per share and announced a new $50 billion stock buyback plan [1][2]. - Bank of America increased its dividend by 8% to $0.28 per share, while Wells Fargo raised its dividend from $0.40 to $0.45 per share [2]. - Goldman Sachs saw the most significant increase, raising its dividend from $3.00 to $4.00 per share, and Citigroup increased its dividend from $0.56 to $0.60 per share [2]. Group 2: Stress Test Results - The Federal Reserve's stress test results showed that banks maintained an average Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio of 11.6%, significantly above the regulatory minimum of 4.5% [3]. - All six major banks maintained double-digit capital ratios under extreme stress scenarios, demonstrating their resilience and ability to withstand economic downturns [3]. Group 3: Federal Reserve's Reform Plans - The Federal Reserve is proposing reforms to the stress testing mechanism, suggesting that future test results should use a two-year average to reduce volatility [4]. - Goldman Sachs' CEO noted that the Fed aims for a more transparent and fair approach to testing, which is intended to enhance the safety and soundness of the financial system [4]. - If the proposed averaging method is implemented, banks may need to hold more capital to meet regulatory requirements, potentially impacting future capital planning [4].

金十数据7月2日讯，美国银行的客户以10周来最快的速度从美国股市撤资，减少了风险敞口。截至6月 底，标普500指数500指数创下了自2023年以来的最佳季度表现。包括吉尔·凯里·霍尔在内的美银量化策 略师在周二发布的一份报告中写道，上周，包括机构、散户和对冲基金在内的所有主要客户群体总计从 美国股市撤出了13亿美元。在市场出现避险情绪之际，围绕本轮反弹能否持续的不确定性越来越大。本 轮反弹已帮助标普500指数从4月份与关税相关的低点反弹，目前徘徊在2024年7月以来的最高超买水平 附近。 美国银行客户以10周内最快速度抛售美国股票 ...

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell acknowledged that the Fed would have already lowered interest rates if not for the tariff policies, indicating a potential shift in monetary policy due to external economic pressures [8]. Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - Powell stated that the Fed's decision on potential rate cuts in July will depend on economic data, with a majority of Fed members expecting another rate cut later this year [8]. - Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast for Fed rate cuts to September, predicting three cuts this year, with the final rate forecast adjusted from 3.5%-3.75% to 3%-3.25% [8]. Group 2: Stock Market Performance - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones increasing by 0.91% to 44,494.94 points, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell by 0.11% and 0.82%, respectively [6][7]. - Bank of America reported that the S&P 500 reached a new high, but there was a significant net sell-off in U.S. stocks, marking the largest outflow in ten weeks [9]. Group 3: Banking Sector Developments - Several major banks on Wall Street announced dividend increases following successful stress tests, leading to a rise in bank stocks [3][15]. - Goldman Sachs plans to increase its common stock dividend by 33% to $4.00 per share, while JPMorgan Chase will raise its quarterly dividend from $1.40 to $1.50 per share [15]. Group 4: Oil Market Insights - International crude oil prices saw a slight increase, with Brent crude rising by 0.30% to $66.94 per barrel and WTI up by 0.52% to $65.44 per barrel [17]. - Market concerns are growing regarding OPEC+ potentially announcing an increase in production by 411,000 barrels per day at their upcoming meeting [18]. Group 5: Legislative Developments - The U.S. Senate passed a comprehensive tax and spending bill, referred to as the "big and beautiful" plan, which will now be debated in the House of Representatives [20][21].

Core Viewpoint - Major Wall Street banks announced significant shareholder dividend plans after passing a more lenient "stress test" by regulators, aligning with the Trump administration's push for relaxed banking regulations [1] Group 1: Stress Test Results - Several large banks, including JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and Morgan Stanley, reported plans to increase quarterly dividends to shareholders [1] - JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley also announced stock buybacks worth several billion dollars [1] - This year's stress test was the first attempt following the Federal Reserve's adjustment of testing scenarios, with the theoretical recession severity being less severe than last year's [1] Group 2: Regulatory Context - The new testing framework was established before President Trump's re-election campaign but coincides with his administration's advocacy for easing banking regulations [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company plans to increase its quarterly dividend by 8%, raising it to $0.28 per share [1] Group 1 - The increase in the dividend reflects the company's strong financial performance and commitment to returning value to shareholders [1]