Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Baidu Group [2][7] Core Views - Baidu's core advertising business is expected to face pressure due to AI search transformations, with a projected revenue decline of 16.3% year-on-year in Q2 2025 [7] - Baidu's Robotaxi service, "Luobo Kuaipao," is leading the global market, with a significant increase in order volume, up 75% year-on-year to 1.44 million in Q1 2025 [7] - The company's intelligent cloud business is experiencing rapid growth driven by the demand for generative AI and large language models, with Q1 2025 cloud service revenue expected to grow by 42% year-on-year [7] - The overall revenue forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted to reflect a decline of 5.2% in 2025, followed by growth of 4.4% and 4.8% in 2026 and 2027, respectively [7] - The target price for Baidu has been revised down to HKD 95.15 based on DCF valuation [7] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Baidu are as follows: - 2024: 133,125 million CNY - 2025: 126,265 million CNY - 2026: 131,853 million CNY - 2027: 138,172 million CNY [2][12] - Net profit projections are: - 2024: 23,760 million CNY - 2025: 18,324 million CNY - 2026: 20,200 million CNY - 2027: 22,172 million CNY [2][12] - The P/E ratio is projected to be 10.9 in 2024, increasing to 14.1 in 2025, and then decreasing to 11.7 by 2027 [2][12] Business Segments - The core online marketing service revenue is expected to decline by 15.3% in 2025, while cloud service revenue is projected to grow by 22.2% [8] - The iQIYI segment is expected to see a slight revenue decline of 1.0% in 2025 [8] Valuation Metrics - The report provides a DCF valuation breakdown, indicating a total enterprise value of approximately 370.45 billion CNY, with equity value at 287.44 billion CNY [9][10]

6年过去了，厂哥依然记得进入互联网行业时的心境，那是一种夹杂着热情和理想、个体成长和发展、 追赶风口的复杂情绪。 "那会还挺有情怀的。"他提高音量，"听完马老师（马云）演讲，感觉浑身血液往上走，你知道吧？"当 时是2019年，互联网依然充满想象和张力，"大家提到最多的词是颠覆，我想我得去走一遭"。 2022年，厂哥从一家大厂离职，开始通过《大厂青年》记录互联网公司的人和事。2023年至今，他做了 一个《和100位互联网大厂人喝咖啡》的项目，前段时间刚刚聊完100人。和他入行时不同，100人之 中，几乎没有人再提及理想和情怀。 事实上，这个项目更像是一场田野调查，100个人及其故事，侧面见证了行业的起伏，个体生存姿态的 转变，以及社会对大厂认知的变化。 他结合个人经历、个体观察，以及这个田野调查，将自进入行业至今的6年概括成三个关键词：最后的 红利、紧日子、熬过来。 在过去，互联网大厂曾是年轻人追逐梦想之地，后来，降本增效渗透到了每家公司的血液里。现在，熬 过来之后的行业在发生什么？身处其中的人又正在经历着什么？以下是厂哥的讲述： 一、被焦虑淹没的大厂人 这件事是从2023年春天开始的。我在北京，最常去的地方就 ...

转自：北青深一度 记者/朴云 编辑/郝鸣 无人驾驶汽车如今在越来越多的城市成为了日常街景 为无人车训练一双可靠的"眼睛"，穷尽难题地去"拷问"它，让它的识别能力在任何场景下都能变得强大，能对路上突然出现的一头骡子或是一条帆船做出 正确的反应；或者是，把无人车看作要参赛的专业长跑运动员，你成为他的备赛团队，负责着赛前训练计划的制定、备赛期间训练效果的跟踪以及赛场上 成绩的监控和赛后复盘等多个环节。 在刚刚加入无人驾驶这个新兴行业时，陈可心和冯云蝉对职业发展都有着自己的想象，一个可以参与改变世界的想象。 萝卜快跑总行驶里程超过1.7亿公里，车辆出险率仅为人类驾驶员的1/14 无人车的"考官" 给无人车训练一双视力超棒的"眼睛"，就是陈可心日常的工作。作为百度萝卜快跑智能网联汽车测试员，她每天都要像考官准备考试试卷一样，收集各种 各样的数据，用在不同天气、不同地点、不同场景下的"难题"去"拷问"无人车的感知模型。 这个感知系统就是无人车的"眼睛"。它由无人车上放置在各处的摄像头、激光雷达等传感器组成，负责看清周围环境，识别出如人、车、红绿灯之类的物 体，从而规划行车路线。 让它的"视力"被训练得越来越强大，是考官陈 ...

2025 年 7 月 18 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 公司点评 全球市场观察 敬请参阅尾页之免责声明 请到彭博 (搜索代码: RESP CMBR )或 http://www.cmbi.com.hk 下载更多研究报告 1 中国股市涨跌互现，港股医疗、综合与必选消费领涨，材料、能源与金融领 跌。A 股跑赢港股，信息技术、医疗与材料涨幅居前，公用事业、通讯服务 与金融跑输市场。国债收益率走平，人民币兑美元走弱。预计 3 季度中国股 市可能处于震荡阶段，消费、通缩和盈利等基本面走弱，但资金流动性延续 宽松，市场可能结构性上涨，人民币兑美元可能走弱；4 季度中国股市和人 民币汇率可能迎来上涨，因耐用品零售增速大降和中美初步达成贸易协定将 推动中国政策向经济再平衡方向演进，扩大财政刺激，增加消费提振，推进 制造业去产能，保持人民币稳中偏强。 日本 6 月对美出口额大跌 11.4%创 2020 年来最大降幅，对美汽车出口额同 比骤降 26.7%，其中价格跌幅贡献较大，显示日企为保美国市场承担大部分 关税成本，这损害日企盈利而利空日股，但降低关税对美国通胀影响而利好 美股美债。美印协议" ...

Group 1 - Chinese assets are experiencing a resurgence, with NIO and Li Auto rising nearly 7% as foreign investment increases in A-shares [2] - The Invesco Global Sovereign Asset Management Research indicates a noticeable recovery in interest from international investment institutions towards the Chinese market, managing approximately $27 trillion in assets [2] - Several foreign institutions express optimism about Chinese assets due to the stable economic performance, policy benefits, and improved corporate earnings outlook [2] Group 2 - The U.S. House of Representatives has advanced cryptocurrency legislation, supported by President Trump, which has led to significant stock price increases for companies in the crypto sector [3] - Blue Ocean Interactive surged over 45% after announcing the establishment of LK Crypto, focusing on mainstream crypto asset management and RWA [3] - Hong Kong is actively developing stablecoin products, creating a dual regulatory framework that connects the U.S. dollar stablecoin with the mainland [3] Group 3 - The Hong Kong IPO market is witnessing a surge, with a significant increase in financing amounts, reflecting global capital's confidence in China's industrial upgrade and consumption potential [7] - On July 9, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange saw five companies queueing for listing in a single day, raising over 10 billion HKD [7] Group 4 - The domestic consumption and investment policies are being emphasized by the Chinese government to strengthen the domestic circulation [5][6] - Analysts highlight the urgency and necessity of promoting consumption as a core strategy for economic growth [6] Group 5 - The A-share market has seen an increase in financing balance for eight consecutive days, totaling an increase of 44.038 billion CNY, indicating positive market sentiment [10] - Analysts suggest that the current macro environment and market risk appetite signal potential for further market growth [10] Group 6 - The number of private equity MOM products registered this year has reached a new high, with 43 products registered by July 15, surpassing the total for the past nine years [14] - This trend indicates a strong interest in the MOM fund model, which allows for diversified asset management [14] Group 7 - The beverage brand Wahaha is facing a decline in sales following a family dispute involving its chairman, which has raised concerns among distributors [16] - The internal family conflict could potentially disrupt the competitive landscape of the Chinese beverage industry [16] Group 8 - The domestic electric vehicle market is seeing significant growth, with L2-level assisted driving penetration exceeding 50% [18] - The heavy truck sales in the first half of the year have increased by approximately 7%, with new energy heavy trucks being a major highlight [18] Group 9 - The stock market is experiencing fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly declining by 0.03% to 3503.78 points [19] - The Hong Kong market is also showing mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng Tech Index experiencing slight declines and gains, respectively [19] Group 10 - The U.S. stock market has seen gains driven by positive economic data and corporate earnings reports, with the S&P 500 rising by 0.45% [20] - Approximately 88% of S&P 500 companies that have reported earnings exceeded analyst expectations, boosting investor confidence [20] Group 11 - Several foreign investment banks have expressed positive views on the Chinese market, with Citigroup raising its ratings for Chinese and Korean markets to "overweight" [21] - Citigroup projects the Hang Seng Index to reach 25,000 points by the end of the year and the CSI 300 Index to reach 4,200 points [21] Group 12 - The stock market's investment logic is shifting towards cash flow analysis in a low-interest-rate environment, with a focus on high-dividend and strong cash flow companies [22] - Analysts are optimistic about sectors such as automotive, electronics, and traditional high-growth areas like AI and pharmaceuticals [22]

盈利预测与估值 我们下调2025/2026/2027 年百度非GAAP 净利润预测17.2/16.1/14.8%至209/240/263 亿元，主因较高利润 率的广告收入增速恢复仍需时间。基于SOTP 模型的美股目标价调整至91.5 美元（前值：102.2 美 元），港股目标价调整至89.9 港元（前值：99.5 港元），新目标价对应10.8/9.4/8.7 倍2025/2026/2027E 非GAAP PE。 风险提示：广告及云计算需求复苏不及预期，大模型商业化进度慢于预期。 我们预计百度持续推进的搜索产品AI 改造或将在2025 年内持续对百度核心的广告收入增长带来一定压 力。伴随AI 转型实践逐步迈入深水区，用户侧数据亦逐步出现边际改善趋势（MAU 同比增速温和提 升），建议持续关注改造进展及用户反馈。与此同时，近期公司自动驾驶业务在海外市场的积极入局或 为其打开可观的中长期成长空间，建议持续关注公司与海外平台业务合作进展及商业化变现节奏。维 持"买入"评级。 百度核心2Q25 前瞻：预计智能云继续兑现较快增长我们预计百度核心2Q25 广告收入同降16%至161 亿 元（1Q25：-6.1%yoy），快 ...

AI云增速健康，利润率较为稳健。公司预计行业对GPU云、大模型API调用需求强劲，我们预计订阅制 公有云2-3Q收入有望维持高于20%同比增速，我们预计2Q25 百度云收入同比增长25%。公司预计云稳 定贡献利润。 萝卜快跑与Uber达成战略合作。7 月15 日，萝卜快跑宣布与出行服务平台Uber建立战略合作关系，萝卜 快跑计划将数千辆无人驾驶汽车，接入Uber全球出行网络，年底前双方将率先在亚洲和中东地区部署萝 卜快跑RT6，未来将逐步扩展至全球更多市场。 百度核心经营利润率下滑明显。考虑到广告收入大幅承压，我们预计2Q百度核心非通用准则经营利润 40 亿元，对应非通用准则经营利润率15.5%，显著低于去年同期。 盈利预测与估值 机构：中金公司 研究员：白洋/王秋婷/魏萌 预测2Q百度核心收入同比降低3.8% 我们预计2Q百度集团收入同比降低3.8%至327 亿元；其中，百度核心收入同比降低3.8%至257 亿元。我 们预期集团2Q25 非通用准则净利润为36亿元，其中百度核心非通用准则净利润为39 亿元。 关注要点 AI改造持续深化，预计2Q广告收入跌幅扩大。根据近期我们和公司的沟通，公司预计2Q AI生 ...

当前，全球搜索引擎市场正经历从"关键词匹配"到"智能理解"的范式转变。在这一背景下，百度推出TizzyAI的战略意图十分明显：通过差异化竞争，在保 持技术领先的同时，解决传统搜索引擎饱受诟病的广告过多问题，从而提升用户体验并增强市场竞争力。 那么，TizzyAI的发布将如何影响百度业绩？又能否在强敌环伺的智能搜索市场脱颖而出？ TizzyAI能否成为百度新的增长引擎？ 新产品实际体验后不难发现，该产品的界面设计确实贯彻了"减法" 理念 —— 不仅没有弹窗干扰和信息流推送，就连底部导航栏也仅保留了 "搜索" 与 "资 源库" 两个核心入口。 进入"TizzyAI" 后，首先映入眼帘的是醒目的产品 Logo 及 Slogan，下方则是搜索框，旁边配有从右至左滚动的搜索推荐词。 继抖音推出智能搜索App"AI抖音"后，百度悄然上线AI搜索应用"TizzyAI"，首次打出了"无广告"的旗帜，将沿袭二十余年的搜索商业模式拦腰斩断。这样 一来，两大巨头在AI搜索赛道狭路相逢。 当前智能搜索市场已形成"一超多强"的竞争格局。和字节旗下的"AI抖音"相比，"TizzyAI"的搜索深度更优（尤其复杂问题拆解），但内容趣味性不足 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" [5][6]. Core Insights - The ongoing AI transformation of the company's search products is expected to exert pressure on its core advertising revenue growth in 2025. However, there are signs of marginal improvement in user data, with a mild increase in MAU year-on-year [1][2]. - The company's recent entry into the autonomous driving market overseas may provide significant long-term growth opportunities, warranting close attention to its collaborations and commercialization progress [1]. - The company has launched several new search applications and features, including a major redesign of its search box and the introduction of the AI search app TizzyAI, which is expected to enhance user engagement [2]. Financial Projections - The forecast for the company's core advertising revenue in Q2 2025 is expected to decline by 16% to 16.1 billion RMB, reflecting the short-term impact of the AI transformation [2]. - The total revenue for the intelligent cloud segment is projected to grow by 25.5% to 6.4 billion RMB, driven by increasing demand for AI training and inference in China [2]. - The non-GAAP operating profit for Q2 2025 is estimated at 4.1 billion RMB, representing a 41% year-on-year decline, with a corresponding non-GAAP operating profit margin of 15.8% [2]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The non-GAAP net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been revised down by 17.2%, 16.1%, and 14.8% to 20.9 billion RMB, 24 billion RMB, and 26.3 billion RMB respectively, primarily due to the slow recovery of high-margin advertising revenue [3][10]. - The target price for the US stock is adjusted to $91.50 and for the Hong Kong stock to HK$89.90, corresponding to 10.8x, 9.4x, and 8.7x non-GAAP PE for 2025, 2026, and 2027 [3][14]. - The valuation of the core advertising business is estimated at $39.2 per ADS, while the AI cloud segment is valued at $43.9 per ADS, reflecting a discount compared to industry peers due to the ongoing AI transformation [14][15].

在今年百度Create开发者大会上，李彦宏直言："没有应用，芯片和模型都无法发挥价值。" 这句话背后，是产业正在迅速达成的一个共识：AI价值必须通过商业化实现闭环。从两年前OpenAI掀 起技术热潮以来，大模型行业快速跃升成为全球科技焦点，但伴随而来的，也是一场从理想到现实的快 速降温。 模型训练所需的高昂成本、C端应用的不确定性、ToB市场的复杂交付，以及持续烧钱的高压运营， 让"钱难赚、屎难吃"这类行业黑话，成为现实困局的凝练表达。 此刻的AI产业，正经历一轮深度的分化。一方面，百度、阿里、腾讯、字节等平台型巨头以饱和式投 入对抗技术拐点，通过自研、收购、云平台能力将AI全面纳入主营生态；而另一面，哪些没有树大根 深的母系家族依赖的初创公司在技术与商业之间徘徊，一旦无法建立营收模型或稳定现金流，就会迅速 从风口中滑落。 01 大厂承压，多元化变现，生态协同为王 从"跑模型"到"跑营收"，这条路并不好走。 在大模型的商业化赛道上，巨头拥有更强的抗压能力，根系足够发达，可以承接多元的商业化探索。从 百度到阿里，再到腾讯，这些大厂拥有庞大的生态体系，它们的AI业务并非单纯地依赖某一块应用或 场景，而是通过将AI ...