证券研究报告 科技 BAT CapEx：AI 加码趋势不变 华泰研究 2025 年 5 月 26 日│中国内地 行业周报（第二十一周） 本周观点 市场方面，上周通信（申万）指数下跌 2.31%，同期上证综指下跌 0.57%， 深证成指下跌 0.46%。BAT（百度、阿里、腾讯）1Q25 合计资本开支为 544 亿元，同比增长 105%，但环比下降 23%。我们认为，国内互联网厂商资 本开支环比下滑系英伟达 H20 禁售影响，长期资本开支增长趋势或不变， 随着国内 GPU 性能、制造工艺持续升级，未来国产 GPU 有望逐步补齐这 一需求缺口，建议关注国产算力及其配套产业链（光模块、AIDC、交换机、 铜连接等）。 周专题：BAT CapEx：AI 加码趋势不变 国内三大上市互联网厂商（百度、阿里、腾讯）近日发布 1Q25 业绩，BAT 1Q25 合计资本开支为 544 亿元，同比增长 105%，但环比下降 23%。分别 来看，百度/阿里/腾讯 1Q25 资本开支分别为 29/240/275 亿人民币，同比增 速分别为+42%/+136%/+91%，环比分别为+24%/-24%/-25%。我们认为， BAT 整体 ...

Group 1: Performance Overview - In Q1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 32.452 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3%, with Non-GAAP net profit of 6.469 billion, both exceeding Bloomberg consensus expectations [1] - Since Q1 2025, the company has repurchased shares worth 445 million, with a cumulative repurchase amount exceeding 2.1 billion since 2023, indicating a continuous commitment to shareholder returns [1] Group 2: Advertising Business - In Q1 2025, the company's core revenue reached 25.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7%, surpassing Bloomberg consensus expectations, while online marketing revenue was 16 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 6% [2] - The company accelerated the AI transformation of its mobile ecosystem, with over 29,000 advertisers utilizing AI tools for daily ad spending, resulting in a 30-fold year-on-year revenue increase from AI tools, accounting for 9% of core online marketing revenue [2] - Short-term willingness of advertisers to invest remains to be restored, but more efficient AI tools are expected to drive incremental growth in advertising business [2] Group 3: Non-Advertising Business - The cloud business continued to grow significantly, with revenue increasing by 42% year-on-year, driven by accelerated AI adoption across multiple industries [2] - Revenue related to AI cloud services saw triple-digit year-on-year growth, with the company deepening cooperation with existing clients and expanding its customer base through new partnerships [2] - The smart driving business saw over 1.4 million orders in Q1, a year-on-year increase of 75%, with expansion into Dubai and Abu Dhabi planned [2] Group 4: Profitability and Cost Structure - In Q1, the company's core Non-GAAP gross margin declined year-on-year, primarily due to increased costs associated with the smart cloud business and customer acquisition [3] - The core Non-GAAP selling and administrative expense ratio increased year-on-year due to higher channel spending and marketing costs, partially offset by reduced personnel-related expenses [3] - The core Non-GAAP R&D expense ratio decreased by 3.4 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to reduced personnel-related costs [3] Group 5: Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - The company is optimistic about AI providing new growth opportunities for its cloud business, but has adjusted its Non-GAAP net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 from 25.4/27.3/28.8 billion to 23.0/24.4/26.4 billion, corresponding to a Non-GAAP PE of 9 times for 2025 [3] - The company's progress in AI business and ongoing share repurchases reflect a focus on shareholder returns, maintaining a "buy" rating [3]

中国两家最大科技公司腾讯（Tencent）及百度（Baidu），近日揭露如何在美国加强管制关键半导体之 际，持续在全球人工智能（AI）竞赛中生存。 CNBC报导，两家公司高层日前在财报电话会议中，提及三种因应美国芯片管制的方法：累积芯片库 存、增进AI模型效率，以及采用中国本土半导体。 腾讯总裁刘炽平表示，公司先前已购入数量可观的芯片库存。他所指的是图形处理器（GPU），此种半 导体已成为训练大型AI模型的黄金标准。 关于推理（AI实际执行任务，而非仅是训练的过程），刘炽平表示，腾讯正透过"软件最佳化"来改善效 率，以便用相同数量的GPU，来执行特定功能。腾讯正研究采用毋需庞大算力的更小型模型，并采用能 在中国取得的客制化芯片及半导体。 刘炽平说，美国企业相信必须扩大GPU丛集，来创造更先进的AI，但腾讯可以透过更小的GPU丛集， 就达到良好的训练效果。他说，"这实际上帮助我们审视现有的高阶芯片库存，并说应该有足够的高阶 芯片，能继续训练接下来几代模型"。 中国最大搜寻引擎公司百度，宣扬所谓的"全端"能力，也就是结合云端运算基础设施、AI模型以及奠基 于这些模型之上的实际运用，比如旗下的文心一言（ERNIE） ...

智能化月报系列 车中旭霞 汽车智能化月报： 《国信汽车-汽车智能化月报系列（二十四）： 特斯拉将于6月推出自动驾驶出租车，小米YU7全系标配激光雷达和PHUD》 ——20250525 《国信汽车-汽车智能化月报系列（二十三）： 2025款小鹏X9全系标配图灵AI智驾，地平线发布L2城区辅助驾驶系统HSD》 ——20250421 《国信汽车-汽车智能化月报系列（二十二）： 城区驾驶辅助功能渗透率1月达9%，理想汽车发布下一代自动驾驶架构 MindVLA》——20250330 《国信汽车-汽车智能化月报系列（二十一）：智驾平权，AI推动汽车板块估值重塑》——20250224 《国信汽车-汽车智能化月报系列（二十）：城区智能驾驶辅助功能渗透率超10%，英伟达推出基于Thor的自动驾驶平台》 ——20250124 《国信汽车-汽车智能化月报系列（十九）：华为举行首批智能车载光认证合作伙伴签约仪式，佑驾创新冲刺港股IPO》—— 20241224 《国信汽车-汽车智能化月报系列（十八）：小鹏P7+全系标配高阶智能辅助驾驶功能，小马智行冲刺美股IPO》——20241126 《国信汽车-汽车智能化月报系列（十七）：特斯拉FS ...

罗永浩牵手百度，董明珠"原谅"孟羽童，头部主播也流量饥渴了 据36氪消息，5月23日，罗永浩在百度电商平台百度优选直播开播，首播4小时，GMV超5000万元，观看人数超千万。 同时，宣布下一场直播定于6月15日，将首次挑战连续直播8小时，重点推介618大促爆品及夏季新品。 据悉，百度优选成为继抖音、淘宝之后，百度合作的又一新兴电商平台，双方将联手探索智能电商领域。数据表明，2024年百度优选月活跃主播数量同比 增长了281%，平台GMV实现了翻倍增长，尤其是数字人直播的GMV增长幅度超过了11倍。 尽管如此，在商家生态建设方面，百度优选仍面临挑战。目前，该平台虽然商家数量快速增长，但头部品牌的占比相对较低，品类覆盖范围有限，缺乏知 名品牌的支持。这意味着百度需要在吸引头部品牌入驻、扶持垂直领域的优秀商家以及优化商家分层运营等方面做出更多努力。 在同一晚，董明珠与孟羽童共同出现在直播间进行直播。当谈及孟羽童是否有重回格力的可能性时，董明珠表示："她离开并不是因为窃取公司技术或被 恶意挖走，所以为什么不可以呢？" 根据飞瓜数据，"格力明珠精选"直播间当晚的观看人次达到了292万，同时在线人数峰值超过3万人，带货销 ...

如果您希望可以时常见面，欢迎标星收藏哦~ 另，百度人工智能云端业务总裁沉抖亦在公司财报电话会议上表示，即使没有最先进的芯片，我们 独特的全端人工智能功能，也使我们能够建立强大的应用程式并提供有意义的价值。 百度也大力宣传软件优化和降低运行模型成本的能力，因为它拥有该堆叠中的大部分技术。 来源：内容来自 CNBC ，谢谢 。 面对美芯片限制，中国科技巨头已采取了突围之道，中国最大通讯应用微信的营运商腾讯总裁刘炽 平表示，腾讯目前拥有「相当充足的」的图形处理单元（GPU）芯片库存。 除了拥有大量的GPU存货外，刘炽平表示，与美国公司认为需要扩大GPU集群才能创造更先进的 人工智能的想法相反，腾讯能够使用较少数量的此类芯片，取得良好的训练效果。 他指出，这实际上帮助我们审视现有的高端芯片库存，并表示我们应该有足够的高端芯片来继续进 行几代模型的训练。 他进一步指出，腾讯正在使用「软件优化」来提高效率，以便部署相同数量的GPU来执行特定功 能。且腾讯还在考虑使用不需要如此强大运算能力的小型模型。 此外，腾讯也表示，它可以利用中国目前可用的客制化芯片和半导体。 刘炽平认为，有很多方法可以满足不断扩大和成长的推理需求，我 ...

关键词密度是衡量网页内容与关键词相关性的重要指标。过低的密度可能导致搜索引擎难以识别网页主题，而过高则可能被视为作弊行为。一般 而言，保持关键词密度在2%8%之间较为适宜，但需根据具体情况灵活调整。 在互联网这片浩瀚的海洋中，想要让自己的网站脱颖而出，吸引目标用户的注意，百度关键字优化无疑是那把开启流量大门的金钥匙。基于我多 年的实战经验，我深知在竞争激烈的网络环境中，精准而有效的关键字优化策略对于提升网站排名、增加曝光度的重要性。今天，就让我带你一 起探索百度关键字优化的奥秘，让你的网站在搜索引擎中脱颖而出，成为用户心中的首选。 一、百度关键字优化的基础认知 在踏入百度关键字优化的征程前，我们首先需要明确其核心概念与重要性。作为SEO优化的关键一环，关键字优化旨在通过精心挑选的关键词， 提升网站在搜索引擎结果页面（SERP）的排名，从而吸引更多潜在用户的点击。 1、关键词的选择策略 大连蝙蝠侠科技作为知名专业SEO公司，非常善于利用大数据分析与竞争对手研究，基于用户搜索习惯与需求深度挖掘高潜力关键词。建议从产 品特性、目标受众及行业趋势出发，筛选出既符合网站定位又能引发用户兴趣的关键词。 2、关键词的布局艺 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Baidu Group is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the short-term impact of AI transformation on the ecosystem significantly affects advertising revenue, while the cloud business shows positive trends [1] - The company's core revenue for Q1 2025 reached RMB 25.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7%, exceeding Bloomberg consensus expectations [8] - Non-GAAP net profit for Q1 2025 was RMB 6.469 billion, also better than market expectations [8] - The report emphasizes the potential of AI tools to enhance advertising efficiency and the ongoing transformation of Baidu's application ecosystem [8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2023 was RMB 134.598 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 8.83% [1] - The forecast for 2025 estimates total revenue at RMB 134.638 billion, reflecting a slight increase of 1.14% [1] - Non-GAAP net profit for 2023 was RMB 28.747 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 39.01% [1] - The forecast for 2025 estimates Non-GAAP net profit at RMB 23.046 billion, a decrease of 14.65% [1] Business Segments - Advertising business: Online marketing revenue for Q1 2025 was RMB 16 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 6% [8] - Cloud business: Revenue grew by 42% year-on-year in Q1 2025, driven by increased demand for AI cloud services [8] - Autonomous driving business: The number of orders for the "萝卜快跑" service exceeded 1.4 million, a year-on-year increase of 75% [8] Market Position and Strategy - The report notes that Baidu has repurchased shares worth over USD 4.45 billion since Q1 2025, reflecting a commitment to shareholder returns [8] - The company is focusing on enhancing operational efficiency and user experience in its autonomous driving segment to reduce losses [8] - The report adjusts the Non-GAAP net profit forecast for 2025-2027 downwards due to uncertainties in the search business competition [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Baidu Group is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the short-term impact of AI transformation on the ecosystem significantly affects advertising revenue, while the cloud business shows a positive trend [1] - The company's core revenue for Q1 2025 reached RMB 25.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7%, exceeding Bloomberg consensus expectations [1] - Non-GAAP net profit for Q1 2025 was RMB 6.469 billion, also better than market expectations [1] - The report emphasizes the potential of AI tools to enhance advertising efficiency and the ongoing transformation of Baidu's application ecosystem [1] - The cloud business experienced strong growth, with revenue increasing by 42% year-on-year, driven by the accelerated adoption of AI across various industries [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2023 was RMB 134.598 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 8.83% [1] - The forecast for 2025 estimates total revenue at RMB 134.638 billion, reflecting a slight increase of 1.14% [1] - Non-GAAP net profit for 2023 was RMB 28.747 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 39.01% [1] - The forecast for 2025 estimates Non-GAAP net profit at RMB 23.046 billion, a decrease of 14.65% [1] Business Segments - Advertising business: Online marketing revenue for Q1 2025 was RMB 16 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 6% [1] - Cloud business: Revenue growth accelerated to 42% year-on-year, with significant demand for AI cloud services [1] - Smart driving business: The number of autonomous driving orders exceeded 1.4 million, a year-on-year increase of 75% [1] Valuation Metrics - The latest diluted EPS for 2023 was RMB 7.39, with a forecast of RMB 8.04 for 2025 [1] - The P/E ratio for 2025 is projected to be 9.51 [1] - The report adjusts the Non-GAAP net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to RMB 230 billion, RMB 244 billion, and RMB 264 billion respectively [1]

自从5月6日港元汇率走强、触发7.75每美元的强方兑换保证后，港股就迅速走弱并震荡至今。不过，从 上周宁德时代、恒瑞医药上市港股后的表现来看，大量龙头科技企业的上市正在提升港股的成长属性。 个人认为港股PE正在迎来重估空间，眼下可能是中期布局的阶段性低点。 总结来说，这里有四个数据大家需要注意： 1.2025年港交所的日均成交金额已经是2018年的2.8倍； 2.外资主要追踪的MSCI中国指数中，超过80%的权重都是港股； 周末懂王对欧盟举起关税大锤，大量过去投资美元资产的资金面临巨大的回流诉求，外资中的长线资金 有关注中国的需求，港股过去几十年的估值都围绕10倍上下波动，吸引力非常大。 细分来看，科技+消费的成长性标的依然是内外资配置港股的核心资产，且中国科技十雄对比美股科技 七姐妹前向3年的PEG预期均值被低估很多，增长空间很大。 目前港股科技指数是场内唯一一个覆盖中国科技十雄的指数，两融品种$港股科技50ETF(SZ159750)$跟 踪指数，价格还在1块以下，比较稀缺。 3.交易结构中，南向资金的持股和交易占比分别上升至12%和23%左右。 4.科技+消费在港股中的市值占比已经从2010年的18%上升 ...