作者：枫叶 来源：正商参阅（ID：zhengshangcanyue） 以下文章来源于正商参阅 ，作者枫叶 正商参阅 . 原《政商参阅》，做价值的传播者！连续两届获评胡润年度影响力财经自媒体、21世纪经济报道年度传 播力财经自媒体、新浪财经、经济观察报年度影响力财经自媒体、新榜年度社会关注新媒体荣誉奖等。 汽车是全球第一大产业，汽车产业辉煌了几十年，德系、日系车也骄傲了不少年！ 丰田、奔驰、大众、宝马...无不是世界级的品牌，就影响力而言，说是油车的"天花板"也毫不为过。 可谁能料到，百年大变局面前，汽车工业格局变了，德系、日系车巨头集体崩盘。 丰田利润同比下降55%，奔驰利润同比下降54%，大众利润同比下降64%，宝马利润同比下降84%...... 油车的"天花板"，要塌了！ 是的，汽车产业的天平正在向电车倾斜，而电动汽车恰好是中国汽车的骄傲，国内电动汽车品牌百花 齐放，国外品牌除了特斯拉，一个能打的都没有。 在百年未有之大变局新能源汽车助力下，我国汽车行业迅速崛起，汽车产业成功实现"弯道超车"，欧 美气的都想掀桌子了。 不过，大势是不可逆的！ 没有永远繁荣的行业，更没有盛久不衰的品牌，求实创新、顺势而为才是 ...

BMW BMW Group Investor Relations | November 2024 - 1 - THE BMW GROUP – RETHINKING PREMIUM INDIVIDUAL MOBILITY FOR THE NEXT 100 YEARS. INVESTOR RELATIONS PRESENTATION. November 2024. WE MAKE INDIVIDUAL MOBILITY MORE HUMAN, INTELLIGENT AND RESPONSIBLE – CREATING AN INSPIRING FUTURE FOR ALL OF US. IMPACT. OUR PATH TO THE FUTURE. STRATEGY. FINANCIALS. BRANDS PRODUCTS DIGITALIZATION SUSTAINABILITY FOOTPRINT PEOPLE OUR ROBUST RESULTS. BMW Group Investor Relations | November 2024 - 2 - IMPACT I STRATEGY I FINANCIA ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a decline in revenue and profit in Q3, primarily due to a loss of sales for about two weeks, which impacted the overall performance [5] - The expected auto margin for Q4 is projected to be between 5% and 7%, with a year-to-date target of 6% to 7% [6][14] - The strategic target for EBIT margin remains at 8% to 10% for the future [14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The warranty provision remains at a similar level compared to the end of 2023, with ongoing accruals and payouts affecting the financials [20] - The company is focusing on efficiency and has a base ratio of 4% in its planning [23] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the U.S. market, the company sold over 290,000 vehicles, marking a growth of nearly 7,000 units, with a significant increase of over 20% in October alone [10] - In Europe, the company sold 620,000 cars, reflecting a growth of almost 50% [23] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is committed to investing €1.7 billion in its U.S. manufacturing plant to electrify operations and enhance competitiveness [17] - A new fully electric plant has been opened in Hungary, which will strengthen cost competitiveness [24] - The company is adapting its powertrain mix in China, with 85% of volumes sold produced locally, and plans to increase this share with new electric models [28] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the challenges in the Chinese market but expressed confidence in the growth of BEVs, with a 15% market share [14] - The company is optimistic about its product portfolio and market conditions in the U.S., indicating a strong setup for future growth [10] Other Important Information - The company is facing pressures from warranty costs, with ongoing measures to reduce these expenses [20] - The impact of geopolitical factors on trade and tariffs was discussed, with management emphasizing the protective nature of their local production [17][41] Q&A Session Summary Question: Underlying profitability and margin expectations - Management confirmed that the underlying profitability level is expected to be in the range of 5% to 7% for Q4, with strategic targets aiming for 8% to 10% in the future [14] Question: North American manufacturing flexibility - The company highlighted its strong manufacturing footprint in the U.S. and the ability to produce a variety of models, providing a buffer against potential tariffs [9] Question: Warranty provisions and cost-cutting measures - Management indicated that warranty provisions are stable, with ongoing efforts to manage and reduce warranty costs [20] Question: Impact of trade tensions and vehicle import/export numbers - The company noted that 65% of U.S. sales are produced locally, which mitigates risks from trade tensions [17] Question: Strategy for the Chinese market - Management emphasized the flexibility in powertrain offerings and the growth of BEVs in China, despite overall market challenges [29] Question: Financial results and future expectations - The decline in Q3 was attributed to fair value derivative evaluations, with expectations for a reversal in Q4 as interest rates rise [37] Question: Capital returns and free cash flow - The company plans to maintain a high payout ratio of free cash flow, with ongoing share buyback programs [40]

Core Insights - The 2024 Paris Auto Show emphasizes the electric vehicle (EV) revolution, showcasing over 50 premieres from major automakers and highlighting competition between European and Chinese manufacturers [1][12] European Automakers - European brands are focusing on countering the influence of Chinese automakers, who are entering the market with affordable and technologically advanced models [2] - Renault unveils the Renault 4 E-Tech, an all-electric crossover priced under €35,000, alongside other models like the Alpine A390 Beta and the all-electric Twingo E-Tech [3] - Citroën introduces the second-generation C5 Aircross with various drivetrain options, including battery-electric and hybrid, while also showcasing updated models like the C4 and Ami [4] - Volkswagen presents the Tayron SUV, emphasizing hybrid options, and Audi showcases the Q6 E-tron Sportback and A6 E-tron electric sedan [5] - BMW highlights affordability and performance with the introduction of the Vision Neue Klasse X, a concept SUV with a range of up to 800 kilometers [6] Chinese Automakers - Chinese automakers are increasing their presence in Europe amid trade tensions, with the EU imposing import tariffs of up to 45% on Chinese-made EVs [7] - Nine Chinese brands, including BYD, XPeng, and GAC, are showcasing their models, with BYD presenting the Sea Lion 7, a full-electric SUV [8] - GAC introduces the second-generation Aion V, an electric crossover with a range of 750 kilometers, while Leapmotor debuts the B10 compact electric crossover [9] U.S. Automakers - General Motors' Cadillac brand showcases the Lyriq, a full-electric SUV aimed at the premium market in Europe [10] - Ford revives the Capri nameplate with an all-electric coupe-style crossover built on Volkswagen's MEB architecture, promising a range of up to 627 kilometers [11] Industry Outlook - The Paris Auto Show occurs at a critical time for the auto industry, with European automakers facing pressure to meet consumer demand for affordable EVs while competing with Chinese brands [12]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The average transaction price for BMW's vehicles in Q1 2024 was €53,000, while the full-year average for 2023 was approximately €51,000, indicating stability in pricing year-to-date [4][5] - The company expects pricing across its portfolio in 2024 to remain on par with the previous year's levels [4] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a normalization in used car pricing, which peaked in Q1 2023 and has been gradually declining since then [5] - In China, BMW's market share in the segment priced above RMB 500,000 (approximately €65,000) is 5%, with a year-on-year volume increase of 3% for models X57 and X7 despite a 5% decline in the overall market [6] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the U.S., BMW's days of supply at dealerships is 31 days, compared to the industry average of 55 days, indicating less pricing pressure on BMW [8] - The company noted a positive trend in transaction prices in China, with a stabilization observed in July [6] Company Strategy and Development Direction - BMW is focused on reducing CO2 emissions and plans to introduce a new vehicle class (Neue Klasse) in 2025 to meet future targets [12][13] - The company aims for a 15% reduction in average fleet emissions by 2025 and a 55% reduction by 2030 [12][13] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in maintaining stable pricing and volume growth, particularly in Europe and China, despite market challenges [14][15] - The company is adjusting production strategies in response to market conditions, particularly in China, to stabilize transaction prices [44] Other Important Information - BMW is working on its Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD) and expects administrative costs but does not foresee significant financial impacts from this work [31][32] Q&A Session Summary Question: Pricing developments in the second half - Management indicated that pricing across the portfolio is expected to remain stable, with some normalization in used car prices impacting revenue [4][20] Question: Volume, mix, and pricing expectations for 2024 - Management expects a neutral impact from volume, mix, and pricing, supported by strong order intake and product availability [14][15] Question: Challenges in energy transition - Management emphasized the importance of aligning product offerings with market demand and infrastructure, noting a significant increase in BEV sales [26][27] Question: CO2 emission targets and combustion engine strategy - Management clarified that they are not pushing back on CO2 reduction but advocating for a technology-neutral approach to achieve emissions targets [29][30] Question: Financial impacts of CSRD - Management confirmed that all relevant issues identified in the CSRD will be reflected in the financial statements, ensuring transparency for investors [31][32] Question: Profit before tax and automotive margin expectations - Management indicated a slight contraction in profit before tax is expected, with a focus on maintaining margins within the lower end of the target range [36][37] Question: Production versus retail sales ratio - Management acknowledged overproduction but expressed confidence in adjusting production schedules to align with market demand [39][42] Question: Volume trends in China - Management noted a potential improvement in volume trends in China, supported by the full availability of the 5 Series and MINI models [44]

宝马中国涨价了 上半年三大航减亏，春秋、吉祥扩大盈利 今年 46 家 A 股芯片公司终止 IPO，超过去年全年 宝马中国涨价了 在上周有关宝马中国打算退出价格战的话题冲上热搜第一后，宝马中国 7 月 12 日说 "下半年宝马在 中国市场将重点关注业务质量，支持经销商稳扎稳打"。 现在，宝马北京朝阳区一家 4S 店的销售说，"全系车型都涨价了，从这周开始涨的。" 不排除这位销售说这话是为了吸引人去线下谈，但同时有多个北京经销商表示宝马已从本周开始回收 终端（即 4S 店）折扣，不同车型、配置价格上浮程度不一。 当前宝马纯电动 i3 35L 裸车价 20 万元，宝马全新一代 530 Li 领先型裸车价约 37.6 万元，均较上月 贵约一万元。海淀区一家门店销售称，"涨价不是一下子完成的，这周涨一点儿、下周再涨一点儿， 慢慢涨上去。" 懂车帝社区也有来自成都、苏州等地的车主分享最近一个月 4S 店上浮报价的见闻。宝马已明确退出 价格战，奥迪、奔驰也在悄悄收紧。上海宝马中环的一位销售表示，7 月以来豪华品牌的终端折扣都 在陆续收紧，"只不过宝马公开说了"。 北京朝阳、房山的奥迪经销商证实，奥迪已从 7 月 5 日开始 ...

关注《晚点财经》并设为星标，第一时间获取每日商业精华。 宝马中国打算退出价格战，维护品牌价值 三星工会发动无限期罢工，此前四年涨薪 29% 最大货币基金年化收益降到了 1.5% 以内 NSEU 代表约四分之一、总计 2.84 万名三星员工。工会代表说目前已经有 6500 人参与罢工，并扰乱 了生产，还在呼吁更多人加入。三星不同意这个说法，表示会确保生产线不出现任何中断，并将和工 会诚信谈判。 三星是韩国最晚成立工会组织的大公司之一。三星集团创始人李秉喆坚决反对工会，曾说过 "只要我 还活着，就不会允许工会存在"。他的三子、三星第二代掌门人李健熙延续了其方针，虽然愿意提高 员工待遇，但不要工会。 宝马中国打算退出价格战，维护品牌价值 宝马中国决定退出持续近一年的 "降价保份额"。据车 Fans 创始人孙少军称，因价格战导致门店亏损 严重，宝马将从 7 月起，通过减少销售量来稳定价格，缓解门店的经营压力。目前宝马暂未作出回 应。今年初，永达汽车在年报里提到其代理经销的保时捷、宝马主动调减销售计划。 上半年，包括宝马在内的豪华品牌积极参与打折，尤其是电动车。宝马目前折价最高的车型之一宝马 i3，裸车价已相较 35. ...

Core Viewpoint - Bayerische Motoren Werke AG Sponsored ADR (BMWYY) is currently considered a strong value stock, with favorable valuation metrics compared to its industry peers [2][8]. Valuation Metrics - BMWYY has a P/E ratio of 5.36, significantly lower than the industry average of 7.90, indicating potential undervaluation [2]. - The stock's Forward P/E has fluctuated between 5.02 and 6.39 over the past year, with a median of 5.58 [2]. - BMWYY's P/CF ratio stands at 2.77, compared to the industry average of 4.55, suggesting it is undervalued based on cash flow [3]. - The P/S ratio for BMWYY is 0.34, while the industry average is 0.67, further indicating a favorable valuation [5]. - The P/B ratio for BMWYY is 0.55, compared to the industry average of 0.97, reinforcing the notion of undervaluation [7]. Investment Strategy - Value investing is highlighted as a preferred method for identifying strong stocks, utilizing fundamental analysis and traditional valuation metrics [6]. - Stocks with high Zacks Ranks and "A" grades in the Value category are considered among the strongest value stocks available [4].

Group 1 - DXC Technology Company (DXC) has seen its current year earnings estimate revised downward by 18.2% over the last 60 days [1] - Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft (BMWYY) has experienced an 8.2% downward revision in its current year earnings estimate over the last 60 days [2] - Dynavax Technologies Corporation (DVAX) has had a significant 50% downward revision in its current year earnings estimate over the last 60 days [4]

Group 1: EU's Tariff Decision - The European Commission has initiated an investigation into subsidies for Chinese EV manufacturers to protect its domestic EV industry from competitive pressure [1][2] - The EU plans to impose tariffs of up to 38.1% on electric vehicles imported from China, effective next month, impacting both Chinese and Western automakers [8][9] - Tariffs are set at 17.4% for BYD, 20% for Geely, and 38.1% for SAIC, with non-cooperating companies facing the highest rate [9] Group 2: Industry Reactions - Mercedes-Benz Group CEO has emphasized the need for open markets, highlighting the risk of retaliatory tariffs on luxury vehicles imported into China [6] - The imposition of tariffs is seen as a significant escalation in the global trade war, potentially provoking a tit-for-tat response from China [7] - German Chancellor has warned against restricting automotive trade with China, stressing the importance of open markets for German automakers [13] Group 3: Economic Implications - The new tariffs are expected to increase costs for selling EVs in Europe, potentially slowing the expansion of Chinese automakers in the region [3] - Western automakers like Tesla and BMW will also face higher costs due to the tariffs, impacting their operations [10] - The coordinated tariff actions by the US and EU reflect growing concerns over China's dominance in the EV and battery supply chains [12]