Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that investors' willingness to diversify their stock holdings will continue to drive fund flows, with a projected 10% increase in a global benchmark stock index by 2026 [1] - The key drivers of this trend include the convergence of corporate earnings between the US and other regions, supported by government spending in Europe, re-inflation policies in Japan, and the widespread adoption of artificial intelligence [1] - Investors currently show stronger confidence in international stocks compared to the US, with a significantly higher bullish sentiment towards other regions and a broader overall risk appetite compared to a year ago [1] Group 2 - The Citigroup team forecasts that the MSCI global index will rise to 1,360 points by the end of 2026, approximately 10% higher than the previous Friday's closing [1] - Despite all major stock markets being valued above historical averages, US stocks are considered the most expensive, with a forward P/E ratio of 22, placing it in the 91st percentile over the past 25 years, while global stock market valuations are in the 90th percentile [1] - The team currently favors emerging markets (excluding the UK) and European markets, holding a neutral view on the US and Japan, and a low allocation to the UK and Australia [3]

Group 1 - The earnings season is led by major banks, starting with JPMorgan, followed by Bank of America, Citi, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley [1][2] - Banks are crucial to the economy due to their lending and dealmaking capabilities, making their earnings reports significant for understanding broader economic trends [2] - The year-end earnings reports will reflect on a volatile first half of 2025, with stocks, including banks, reaching record highs despite concerns about an AI bubble [4] Group 2 - President Trump is focusing on affordability, which may impact various sectors, including the defense sector and institutional investors in residential housing [5][6] - The potential for Trump's affordability agenda could be beneficial for banks, as a healthy consumer environment typically supports their business [6] - Other industries should remain vigilant as they may become targets of Trump's affordability initiatives, regardless of their direct relevance to the issues he addresses [7]

Core Viewpoint - Investors are expected to continue diversifying their equity holdings in 2026, leading to a projected 10% increase in a benchmark global stock index according to Citigroup Inc. strategists [1]. Group 1: Earnings and Market Confidence - A significant factor driving this trend is the convergence of earnings between the US and other global markets, with potential improvements in earnings per share in key markets outside the US due to government spending in Europe, reflation in Japan, and widespread adoption of artificial intelligence [2]. - There is a growing confidence among investors in international equities, with current positioning being more bullish on the rest of the world compared to the US, and a broader risk appetite compared to a year ago [3]. Group 2: Market Projections - The MSCI AC World Index is projected to end the year at 1,360 points, approximately 10% higher than the recent close, while the S&P 500 index is expected to gain 11% in 2026 [4]. - Despite all major equity markets trading above historical averages, US stocks are identified as the most expensive, trading at 22 times forward earnings, placing them in the 91st percentile over the past 25 years, while global equities are in the 90th percentile [5]. Group 3: Market Flows and Sector Preferences - Recent data indicates only a modest rotation in investment flows, with Europe experiencing its first year of inflows since 2018, which only reversed less than 10% of previous outflows. The long-term flow setup remains supportive of the diversification narrative [6]. - The investment strategy is overweight on emerging markets and Europe excluding the UK, neutral on the US and Japan, and underweight on the UK and Australia. Preferred sectors globally include technology, financials, and healthcare, while consumer sectors are underweight [7].

Earnings Reports Overview - Earnings season is commencing with major banks and tech stocks reporting, including Bank of America, Taiwan Semiconductor, JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and Delta Airlines [1] Implied Volatility Insights - Implied volatility tends to be high before earnings reports due to market uncertainty, leading to increased demand for options [2] - After earnings announcements, implied volatility typically decreases to normal levels [3] Expected Stock Movements - Expected price movements for stocks reporting this week include: - Delta Airlines (DAL) - 6.8% - JP Morgan (JPM) - 3.8% - Bank of America (BAC) - 4.0% - Citigroup (C) - 4.5% - Wells Fargo (WFC) - 4.9% - Goldman Sachs (GS) - 4.4% - Morgan Stanley (MS) - 4.3% - Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) - 5.3% - PNC - 3.8% [4][5][6] Trading Strategies - Option traders can utilize expected moves to structure trades, with bearish traders selling bear call spreads and bullish traders selling bull put spreads or considering naked puts [7] - Neutral traders may opt for iron condors, ensuring short strikes remain outside the expected range [7] Risk Management - It is advisable to employ risk-defined strategies and maintain small position sizes when trading options over earnings, limiting potential losses to 1-3% of the portfolio [8] Stock Screening for High Implied Volatility - A stock screener can identify stocks with high implied volatility, focusing on those with total call volume greater than 5,000, market cap over 40 billion, and IV rank above 40% [9][10]

美股第四季度财报季正式拉开帷幕，高盛首席交易员John Flood认为市场对标普500指数的盈利预期"再 次过于保守"，实际表现料将超出共识预期。本周银行股财报将成为市场关键风向标，摩根大通将于周 二率先公布业绩，到2月首周将有68%的标普500成分股完成披露。 高盛指出，共识预期显示标普500第四季度每股收益同比增长7%，但这一预期可能再次偏低。标普500 指数自2023年第一季度以来每个季度都超出了市场共识预期，2025年前三季度均实现两位数盈利增长， 平均超出共识预期6个百分点。 不过，银行股周一盘前遭遇抛售。特朗普上周五在Truth Social上发文称，将从1月20日起实施为期一年 的信用卡利率上限，限制在10%。这一表态令金融股承压，花旗集团盘前跌近4%，摩根大通跌2.88%， 美国银行跌2.36%。 本季度资本支出的走向将对盈利前景产生重要影响，尤其是参与AI基础设施建设的大型科技股。共识 预期显示，超大规模云服务商的资本支出同比增速将从第三季度的75%放缓至第四季度的54%，到2026 年底进一步降至24%。高盛预计AI支出将再次超出共识预期，但同意2026年AI资本支出增速可能放缓。 银行股 ...

Market Analysis by covering: Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, Citigroup Inc. Read 's Market Analysis on Investing.com ...

Market Performance - Wall Street's major equity averages ended positively, with the S&P 500 reaching a new record high [1] - Data storage companies saw significant gains, with Sandisk (SNDK) up over +12% and Seagate Technology Holdings (STX) rising more than +6% [1] - Chip stocks advanced, led by Intel (INTC) which surged over +10% following supportive comments from President Trump [1] - Vistra (VST) and Oklo (OKLO) also experienced notable increases of over +10% and +7% respectively after securing power supply agreements with Meta Platforms [1] - Qualcomm (QCOM) faced a decline of over -2% after a downgrade by Mizuho [1] Economic Indicators - The U.S. Labor Department reported a nonfarm payroll increase of 50K in December, below the expected 66K, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.4%, better than the anticipated 4.5% [4] - Average hourly earnings rose by +0.3% month-over-month and +3.8% year-over-year, surpassing expectations [4] - The University of Michigan's preliminary consumer sentiment index improved to 54.0 in January, exceeding expectations of 53.5 [4] Federal Reserve Insights - Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin noted modest job growth and a low-hiring environment, emphasizing the need for vigilance regarding unemployment and inflation risks [5] - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly described the current phase as "fine-tuning" rather than making large policy changes [5] - U.S. rate futures indicate a 94.3% probability of no rate change and a 5.7% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming Fed meeting [5] Upcoming Economic Data - The U.S. consumer inflation report for December is anticipated to influence expectations for future rate cuts by the Fed [6] - Other significant data releases include U.S. retail sales for November and various indices related to manufacturing and job claims [6] Corporate Earnings - The fourth-quarter earnings season is set to begin, with major banks like JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Bank of America (BAC), and Wells Fargo (WFC) reporting this week [8] - Other notable companies scheduled to report include Morgan Stanley (MS), Goldman Sachs (GS), and Delta Air Lines (DAL) [8] International Market Developments - The Euro Stoxx 50 Index declined by -0.18% amid concerns over Fed independence and President Trump's proposed cap on credit card interest rates [10] - The Eurozone's Sentix Investor Confidence Index improved to -1.8, better than the expected -5.1 [11] - China's Shanghai Composite Index reached a new 10-year high, driven by advancements in AI and expectations of policy support [12]

Core Viewpoint - Trump's proposal to cap credit card interest rates at 10% has led to a significant decline in the stock prices of credit card issuers and related companies, raising concerns about the potential impact on their profitability and the credit market overall [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reaction - Following Trump's announcement, stocks of credit card companies such as Synchrony Financial and Bread Financial fell nearly 10%, while American Express and Citigroup dropped over 4% [1]. - Barclays experienced a significant intraday drop of 4.8%, marking its largest decline since October 17 of the previous year, highlighting the vulnerability of its U.S. retail banking segment, which heavily relies on credit card operations [3]. Group 2: Implications of the Proposal - If implemented, the proposed interest rate cap would result in the lowest credit card rates since 1994, with current average rates at 19.65% for general credit cards and 30.14% for store cards [2]. - Major banking associations have opposed the proposal, arguing it could push consumers towards less regulated and more expensive alternatives, potentially reducing access to credit for lower-income individuals [2]. - A study indicated that a similar interest rate cap in Illinois led to a 38% reduction in loans issued to subprime borrowers within six months, suggesting significant negative effects on credit availability [2]. Group 3: Company-Specific Insights - Barclays' U.S. retail banking division is projected to generate £3.6 billion in revenue by 2025, with credit card operations being a crucial component, contributing significantly to its income despite lower profit margins [3]. - Analysts suggest that any regulatory cap on credit card rates would have a pronounced impact on Barclays compared to European banks, emphasizing the importance of the U.S. market for its credit card business [3].

来源：滚动播报 1. 花旗集团：预计美联储将在3月、7月和9月各降息25个基点，此前预测是今年1月、3月和9月降息。 2. 高盛集团：预计美联储将在今年6月和9月各进行一次25个基点的降息，此前预期为3月和6月降息。 3. 巴克莱银行：预计美联储将在今年6月和12月各进行一次25个基点的降息，此前预期为3月和6月降息。 4. 摩根士丹利：预计美联储将在6月和9月各进行一次25个基点的降息，而此前的预测是今年1月和4月降 息。 5. 摩根大通：不再预计美联储将在2026年降息，此前预期1月降息25个基点，预计2027年第三季度 将加息25个基点。 ...

While it's not clear how Trump may enact his plan, the stocks were getting hit badly in premarket trading Monday. ...