Core Insights - The article discusses the concept of "invisible champions," which are companies that dominate niche markets but remain relatively unknown to the general public. These companies do not seek to increase their exposure or go public, yet they achieve significant success in their specialized fields [1][5][6]. Group 1: Invisible Champions in Germany - Germany has a significant number of invisible champions, with nearly half of the global total located there, while China has fewer than 100 [7][8]. - The characteristics of these invisible champions include being rooted in small towns, having low employee turnover, and focusing on highly specialized products that are difficult to replicate [8][24]. - Examples of successful invisible champions include Wanzl, which dominates the global market for shopping carts, and Körber, a leader in high-speed cigarette manufacturing [11][15]. Group 2: Challenges Facing German Invisible Champions - Recently, many German invisible champions, particularly in the automotive sector, have faced bankruptcy, with notable companies like Gerhardi going under [34][38]. - Contributing factors to this trend include rising costs due to geopolitical issues, such as the energy crisis following the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and a looming labor shortage as the workforce ages [39][44]. - The decline in demand for German products is also attributed to the rise of Chinese automotive supply chain companies, which offer competitive pricing and quality [43][45]. Group 3: Economic Impact of Invisible Champions - German small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), which include many invisible champions, account for over 99% of all companies and contribute 55% to the GDP [24]. - These SMEs play a crucial role in job creation, employing over 70% of the workforce and providing around 80% of vocational training positions [24][46]. - The article emphasizes the need for attention and protection for these less visible but vital companies, as they form the backbone of the German economy [46].

Deutsche Bank and five ex-managers ended mediation proceedings without reaching common ground in a dispute over allegations the bank acted wrongfully in a criminal case that they say harmed their careers https://t.co/rRCk3BAocw ...

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank predict that the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates by 25 basis points in each of the remaining three meetings this year (September, October, December), a significant upgrade from previous expectations of rate cuts only in September and December [1] - This adjustment is based on recent data showing easing inflation pressures and signs of a slowing labor market, with the market widely expecting the Fed to restart its easing cycle after December 2024 [1] - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has indicated that a rate cut may occur at the September 16-17 meeting, highlighting rising risks in the labor market while warning that inflation threats remain [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley further notes that the current market environment allows the Fed to shift more quickly to a neutral policy stance, potentially implementing rate cuts of 25 basis points in four consecutive meetings starting this week, continuing until January next year, with additional cuts expected in April and July 2026 [1] - Deutsche Bank's chief U.S. economist, Matthew Luzetti, believes that while the current forecast does not include further cuts in 2026, risks lean towards more rate cuts if inflation and labor market trends do not align with levels below the neutral rate [1] - According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FedWatch tool, traders are pricing in a 95% probability of a 25 basis point cut next week, with only a 5% chance of a more aggressive 50 basis point cut [1]

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank is intensifying its focus on the Asia-Pacific and emerging markets, particularly in China, by appointing Dr. Jacky Tang as the Chief Investment Officer for Emerging Markets [2][4]. Group 1: Leadership Appointment - Dr. Jacky Tang has over 25 years of experience and will be based in Hong Kong, overseeing the strategic development of Deutsche Bank's discretionary portfolio management business in emerging markets [2][3]. - He will report directly to Christian Nolting, the Global Chief Investment Officer, and Maria Haindl, the Global Head of Banking, Lending & Investment Solutions [3]. Group 2: Strategic Expansion in Asia-Pacific - The appointment aligns with Deutsche Bank's strategy to strengthen its presence in the Asia-Pacific region and enhance its operations in China [4]. - Since early 2025, Deutsche Bank's investment banking division has added 46 new professionals in the Asia-Pacific region [4]. - Deutsche Bank has appointed Michael Wang, former Executive General Manager of CICC's Investment Banking Division, as the head of consumer sector client business in Greater China [4]. Group 3: Performance in Capital Markets - In the first half of 2025, Deutsche Bank ranked second in the Asia-Pacific region for consumer sector M&A transactions and fifth overall in M&A rankings [4]. - Deutsche Bank participated in 5 out of 8 U.S. IPOs of Chinese companies from 2023 to the first quarter of 2025, holding the top market share [4]. - In the second quarter of 2025, Deutsche Bank successfully priced 7 equity capital market transactions, raising over $2 billion for corporate issuers [4]. Group 4: Market Outlook - Deutsche Bank's report from February 2025 predicts that China will surpass other countries, with expectations that the "valuation discount" for Chinese stocks will disappear, leading to a bull market in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [5]. - The bank maintains an optimistic outlook on the Chinese stock market and plans to raise its expectations for the coming months [5].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. labor market risks are increasing, prompting the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to shift its focus towards stabilizing growth and initiating a monetary easing cycle, with expectations of interest rate cuts in the near future [1][2][4]. Economic Indicators - The unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in August, and revised data indicated a loss of jobs in June, highlighting a cooling labor market [2][3]. - A benchmark revision showed that over 910,000 jobs were added in the past year compared to initial reports, indicating a significant downward adjustment in employment figures [2][3]. Federal Reserve's Stance - The Federal Reserve's position has shifted since summer, with officials increasingly prioritizing employment stability over inflation concerns [2][3]. - Recent market pricing indicates a high probability of rate cuts in September, October, and December, with expectations of 25 basis point reductions in each meeting [4][5]. Predictions and Market Reactions - Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank have adjusted their forecasts, now predicting three rate cuts of 25 basis points each in the remaining meetings of the year, reflecting a more aggressive easing stance [4][5]. - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve may adopt a more neutral policy stance, with potential for continued rate cuts into 2026 [5]. Economic Forecasts - The upcoming quarterly economic projections from the Federal Reserve will provide insights into inflation, unemployment, and interest rate expectations, which are crucial for market direction [3][4].

Group 1 - Economists from Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank now expect the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates at a faster pace in the coming months due to slowing inflation and a weakening labor market [1] - Deutsche Bank has increased its forecast for rate cuts in the remainder of 2025 to three times, up from its previous expectation [1] - Morgan Stanley economists anticipate consecutive rate cuts at four meetings until January of next year [1]

Group 1 - Economists at Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank are predicting accelerated Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts due to slowing inflation and a weakening labor market [1][3] - The Fed is expected to announce a 25 basis-point cut at its upcoming meeting, with traders anticipating further reductions in October and December [1][2] - Deutsche Bank has revised its forecast to include a third interest-rate cut in 2025, while Morgan Stanley expects cuts at four consecutive meetings through January [1][4] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley forecasts that the upper bound of the target range will reach 3.5% by January, with cuts expected in September, October, December, and January [2][5] - Economists suggest that the Fed will pause after January to assess inflationary impacts, with potential further cuts anticipated in April and July [4][5] - The argument against a larger 50 basis-point cut this month is based on the relatively low unemployment rate and the current fed funds rate being closer to neutral [6]

德意志银行：在美联储2025年降息时间预期中新增10月份。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The euro is expected to rise above 1.20 against the dollar, but this may not pose significant issues for the European Central Bank (ECB) [1] Group 1: Euro and ECB Outlook - Analysts from Deutsche Bank predict the EUR/USD exchange rate will increase to 1.22 by year-end, up from a previous forecast of 1.20 [1] - The ECB's Vice President, Luis de Guindos, indicated that a stronger euro could be challenging, yet the ECB may tolerate further euro appreciation due to improved growth prospects [1] - The expectation of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and concerns over its independence are contributing factors to the euro's anticipated strength [1]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank anticipate the U.S. Federal Reserve will implement interest rate cuts at all three remaining meetings in 2023, with a 25 basis points cut expected in September, October, and December [1][2] - The Fed is expected to initiate a new easing cycle in the upcoming policy meeting, marking its first rate cut since December 2024, due to signs of a slowdown in the job market [2][3] - Traders are pricing in a 95% probability of a 25 basis points rate cut next week, with only a 5% chance of a more significant 50 basis points cut [4] Group 2 - Deutsche Bank forecasts four consecutive 25 basis points rate cuts starting next week and extending through January 2026, with additional cuts anticipated in April and July 2026 [3] - Morgan Stanley suggests that current market conditions allow the Fed to move more swiftly towards a neutral policy stance [2][3] - Standard Chartered is the only brokerage predicting a 50 basis points rate cut this month, contrasting with the broader market consensus [4]