Financial Performance & Targets - Deutsche Bank's H1 2025 revenues grew by 6%, positioning the bank to achieve its full-year revenue target of approximately €32 billion[2] - The bank's H1 2025 adjusted costs were flat year-over-year, aligning with guidance, while noninterest expenses decreased by 15%[2] - Deutsche Bank reported a RoTE of 11.0% and a CET1 ratio of 14.2% in H1 2025[3] - The bank is on track to achieve its RoTE target of over 10% for FY 2025 and maintains a revenue CAGR target of 5.5-6.5% from 2021-2025[19] - Deutsche Bank aims for a cost/income ratio of less than 65% in FY 2025[19] Divisional Performance (Q2 2025) - The Corporate Bank's revenues were €1.896 billion, a decrease of 1% compared to Q2 2024[52] - The Investment Bank's revenues increased by 3% year-over-year to €2.687 billion, driven by strong performance in Fixed Income & Currencies (FIC)[55] - The Private Bank's revenues were up 2% year-over-year, reaching €2.371 billion, with profit before tax increasing by 56%[60] - Asset Management saw a 9% increase in revenues to €725 million, with profit before tax up by 41%[64] Capital & Risk Management - The bank's CET1 ratio increased by 42 bps compared to Q1 2025, reaching 14.2%, supported by earnings and capital efficiency measures[44] - Provision for credit losses in Q2 2025 was €0.4 billion, a decrease of 11% compared to Q2 2024[25] - Deutsche Bank's sustainable finance volumes increased by 30% year-over-year, reaching €417 billion cumulatively since 2020[25]

Market Performance - The US stock market saw significant gains on July 23, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 507.85 points, or 1.14%, closing at 45010.29 points. The Nasdaq Composite increased by 127.33 points, or 0.61%, closing at 21020.02 points, marking its first close above the 21000-point threshold. The S&P 500 index rose by 49.29 points, or 0.78%, closing at 6358.91 points [1][3][4]. Trade Agreements - President Trump announced a trade agreement between the US and Japan, which has heightened market expectations for further trade agreements before the August 1 tariff deadline. The agreement includes a reduction of the reciprocal tariff rate from 25% to 15% and Japan's commitment to invest $550 billion in the US [2][6][7]. Sector Performance - In the S&P 500, nine out of eleven sectors experienced gains, with the healthcare and industrial sectors leading with increases of 2.03% and 1.75%, respectively. The utilities and consumer staples sectors saw declines of 0.79% and 0.07% [8]. - Major technology stocks mostly rose, with AMD increasing over 3%, and other companies like NVIDIA, Boeing, and TSMC rising over 2%. Financial stocks also saw gains, with Mizuho Financial up over 6% and UBS Group up over 3% [8]. Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by 0.75%, with notable increases in stocks such as iQIYI, which rose over 4%, and Tiger Brokers, which increased over 3%. However, some stocks like NIO and Li Auto saw declines of over 1% [9].

金十数据7月24日讯，美国总统特朗普上月将联邦债务成本作为敦促鲍威尔降息的新理由。但一项新的 分析显示，解雇美联储主席并迫使其降低利率无济于事。德意志银行首席美国经济学家Matthew Luzzetti等人写道，撤换鲍威尔不会改变财政部的债务利息成本。特朗普一再呼吁降息3个百分点，并称 这将节省超过1万亿美元。但根据德意志银行团队的计算，这样做虽然短期国债收益率下降，但长期国 债收益率上升，这是由于人们担心美联储更加顺从将意味着通胀率上升。具体来说，如果特朗普解雇鲍 威尔，财政部到2027年只能节省120亿至150亿美元。 德意志银行：解雇鲍威尔不会节省太多债务成本 ...

Group 1 - Deutsche Bank's report highlights four major risk factors: tariff impacts, employment data, U.S. Treasury yields, and multiple events overlapping [2] - The report's warnings are seen as repetitive and not new, as similar concerns were raised last year [2] - The concept of "black swan" events is questioned, suggesting that market movements are often predictable based on institutional behavior rather than expert predictions [11] Group 2 - Data analysis reveals that institutional funds had already reduced their participation in the liquor sector prior to the market downturn, indicating a lack of confidence [5][7] - The essence of the stock market is viewed as a struggle for pricing power, with institutional actions leaving clear data traces [8] - Observing institutional trading behavior is emphasized as a more reliable strategy than following expert opinions [10] Group 3 - The report suggests that rather than fearing "black swan" events, investors should focus on monitoring institutional fund movements for true market signals [11] - The importance of data tools that penetrate market noise and provide clear insights is highlighted, contrasting with the often fluctuating views of experts [12] - The market is always changing, but human behavior and institutional logic remain constant, suggesting that finding suitable observation tools can provide an advantage in the pricing power game [13]

德意志银行：量化紧缩计划下，英国央行可能会推迟出售长期国债 金十数据7月23日讯，德意志银行的分析师Sanjay Raja在一份报告中表示，英国央行可能会在其量化紧 缩计划中推迟出售长期英国国债。Raja说，对长期英国国债的需求下降，可能会导致债券发行从10月份 推迟到2026年第一季度。根据计划，英国央行将在9月18日公布自10月起未来12个月的国债出售方案。 他表示："考虑到挥之不去的担忧和当前的市场预期，我们预计货币政策委员会将采取一种渐进而谨慎 的方式来实施量化紧缩。" ...

Core Viewpoint - Sustainable finance has become a key issue in the financial industry, driven by increasing global attention to climate change and social responsibility. Financial institutions are integrating sustainable development goals into their business strategies, focusing on promoting green finance and ESG investments while facing significant challenges [1][2]. Group 1: Deutsche Bank's Approach to Sustainable Finance - Deutsche Bank views sustainable development as central to its mission, aiming to meet long-term profitability, regulatory requirements, and client expectations [2][4]. - The bank adopts a solution-oriented business model, designing and customizing sustainable finance solutions based on client needs [2][4]. - Deutsche Bank emphasizes the importance of integrating environmental and social factors into risk management decisions, a practice increasingly recognized by regulators [3][5]. Group 2: Key Drivers of Sustainable Finance - Five key drivers underpin Deutsche Bank's commitment to sustainable finance: the need for responsible profit generation, the integration of sustainability into daily operations, regulatory requirements from European authorities, client demand for sustainable practices, and employee expectations for working in a mission-driven company [4][5][6]. - The bank believes that sustainable finance is not just a priority for management but also a tangible business opportunity, essential for becoming a market leader [4][5]. Group 3: Market Trends and Future Outlook - The demand for sustainable finance and green finance is expected to continue growing, with more companies incorporating sustainability into their core strategies due to changing consumer preferences and regulatory pressures [3][6]. - Deutsche Bank has observed significant growth in sustainable finance transactions and ESG-compliant asset volumes since prioritizing sustainability in 2019 [6][11]. Group 4: Role of Technology in Sustainable Finance - Emerging technologies like artificial intelligence and blockchain are crucial for enhancing data transparency and accountability in sustainable finance [13][14]. - Digitalization is seen as a means to improve transparency and support data-driven decision-making, which is essential for achieving sustainability goals [14]. Group 5: Challenges and Consumer Behavior - While the market for sustainable investments has faced some resistance, the focus is shifting towards creating value through sustainability, influenced by government policies and consumer demand [15][16]. - Companies are increasingly recognizing the importance of sustainability, with many integrating it into their business strategies without necessarily labeling it as such [16][17].

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank analysts indicate that the cost of tariffs is primarily borne by Americans, leading to downward pressure on the US dollar [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Tariff Costs - According to Deutsche Bank, the burden of tariff costs is mainly on American importers rather than consumers, as inflation in the US remains controlled [1] - The expectation is that if foreign entities were to bear the tariff costs, sales prices would decrease, but this trend has not been observed except in a few cases [1] Impact on the US Dollar - The analysis suggests that since the tariff costs are predominantly shouldered by the US, this situation represents an additional negative factor for the US dollar [1]

资金流向数据印证了这一趋势：LSEG旗下理柏数据显示，今年以来欧洲股票基金流入超1000亿美元，是去年同 期的三倍；而美国股票基金流出近870亿美元，流出量翻倍以上。过去12个月中，有7个月出现美国股基资金净流出， 而欧洲则持续流入。欧洲央行行长拉加德称，这表明"真正调动资金的市场力量和投资者看到了欧洲的价值并对其抱 有信心"。 德国作为欧盟最大经济体，其吸引力尤为明显：德国央行最新数据显示，2025年前四个月外国对德直接投资翻倍 至460亿欧元，创2022年以来新高。同期，德国公司甚至在三个月内从美国撤资，4月对美直接投资净流出23.8亿欧 元。 （原标题：因对美担忧加剧，投资者蜂拥欧洲寻求稳定） 路透社6月30日报道，随着美国贸易政策不确定性上升，越来越多投资者将目光转向欧洲，寻求在特朗普关税威 胁与政治干预加剧的背景下更具稳定性的投资环境。 受访的多位高管与基金经理表示，欧洲基础设施和国防主导的支出计划提供了政策连续性与可预测性，吸引资金 流入。而美国则因特朗普反复无常的关税政策与行政命令，造成政策朝令夕改，削弱了其市场的吸引力。德国投资基 金Deka首席投资官办公室负责人维茨克指出，美国原本是资本市场 ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs reports that global investment, manufacturing employment, spending, and overall economic activity remain robust despite uncertainties and challenges [2] - Global trade remains active, indicating the persistence and importance of international trade, with significant rebounds in stock markets across the Atlantic [2] - Moody's analysis suggests that the outcome of Japan's Senate elections may hinder the government's efforts to advance fiscal consolidation in the post-pandemic era [2] Group 2 - Deutsche Bank strategists warn that if the US confirms tariff increases on August 1 alongside disappointing employment reports, it could trigger renewed recession fears [3] - Concerns over the sustainability of US debt may become a central topic of discussion in the market for the second half of the year, with long-term Treasury yields facing upward pressure [3] - Current 10-year US Treasury yield has risen by 2 basis points to 4.392% [3]

随着美国总统特朗普的关税政策推进，一个关键问题浮现：究竟是谁在这些关税买单？ 据追风交易台消息，德意志银行最新研报显示，特朗普政府征收的关税主要由美国人承担，而非海外出口商。该行分析了第二季度美国制造业商品进口价 格变化后发现，尽管关税收入今年已超过1000亿美元，但外国出口商并未通过大幅降价来吸收关税成本。 分析师George Saravelos指出，如果外国出口商承担关税成本，理论上市场应该看到进口商品价格大幅下降。但分析结果表明，美国的贸易伙伴中，除加 拿大出现温和价格下调、英国出现较小幅度下调外，其他地区出口商支付的关税费用微乎其微。最令人意外的是，中国出口商基本未通过降价来抵消关税 影响。 如果是外国人在支付关税，我们预期会看到进口商品价格大幅下降，因为他们将其成本吸收进了自身的利润空间。确实，我们看到了一些温和 的价格下降，在加拿大最为明显，英国次之。但最令人惊讶的是，除此之外，其他地方的出口商似乎支付得极少。 鉴于美国消费者价格指数涨幅迄今保持克制，德银得出结论：美国进口商主要通过压缩自身利润率来吸收关税成本。这一现状不仅为美国贸易伙伴在8月1 日新期限前提供了更多谈判筹码，也预示着未来美国消费 ...