撰文 / 钱亚光 设计 / 师 超 2025年，美国电动汽车行业即将迎来一个重要里程碑，那就是将有超10家新的电池工厂投产。 据基准矿产情报公司（Benchmark Mineral Intelligence）的数据，这些设施得到了像 LGES、SK On、三星这样的行业巨头以及丰田、福特、本田、现 代、特斯拉和Stellantis等汽车制造商的支持，它们将使美国的电池制造能力增长至 421.5 GWh，几乎是之前的两倍。 据考克斯汽车公司《凯利蓝皮书（Kelly Blue Book）》的统计，2024年全年，电动汽车销量超过130万辆，同比增长了7.3%，而汽车市场整体同比增长 只有2%多一点。 2024年，电动汽车占据了8.1%的市场份额；2023年，美国所有新车销量的7.3%是全电动的；2022年，美国人购买的新车中有5.8%是全电动的，高于 2021年的3.2%。 通用、福特、现代等几家汽车制造商在过去两年中报告称，电动汽车销量强劲增长，在很大程度上得益于消费者激励措施和有利的融资。随着更多电池 产能即将在美国本土建成，人们对于减少美国对国外关键电动汽车零部件的依赖寄予了厚望。 其次，降低成本。随着电池 ...

Core Viewpoint - Ford Motor Company reported strong fourth-quarter earnings, surpassing estimates and showing year-over-year growth in revenues and adjusted earnings per share [2][3][4]. Financial Performance - Adjusted earnings per share for Q4 2024 were 39 cents, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 34 cents and up from 29 cents in the previous year [2]. - Consolidated revenues for Q4 reached $48.2 billion, a 5% increase year over year, with total automotive revenues at approximately $44.9 billion, surpassing the Zacks estimate of $43.5 billion [2]. - The Ford Blue segment saw a 2% increase in wholesale volume to 774,000 units, with revenues rising 4% to $27.3 billion, exceeding expectations [3]. - The Ford Model e segment's wholesale volume increased by 10% to 37,000 units, but revenues declined 11% to $1.4 billion, although it still surpassed estimates due to higher average selling prices [4]. - The Ford Pro segment's wholesale volume grew 5% to 378,000 units, with revenues increasing 6% to $16.2 billion, though it missed expectations [5]. - Ford Credit's revenues were $3.27 billion, up 19% year over year, with pretax earnings of approximately $470 million, a 68% increase [6]. Financial Position - Ford reported an adjusted free cash flow of $700 million for the quarter, with cash and cash equivalents totaling $22.9 billion as of December 31, 2024 [7]. - Long-term debt, excluding Ford Credit, was $18.9 billion at the end of 2024 [7]. 2025 Guidance - For the full year 2025, Ford expects EBIT between $7 billion and $8.5 billion, with adjusted free cash flow projected at $3.5 billion to $4.5 billion [8]. - Capital spending is anticipated to be in the range of $8 billion to $8.5 billion, with EBIT from the Pro and Blue segments expected to be $7.5 billion to $8 billion and $3.5 billion to $4 billion, respectively [8]. - The Ford Model e unit is projected to incur a pre-tax loss between $5 billion and $5.5 billion [8]. Market Sentiment - Recent estimates for Ford have shown a downward trend, with a significant shift of -83% in consensus estimates [9][10]. - The company currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), indicating expectations for an in-line return in the coming months [12].

Core Viewpoint - The one-month exemption from tariffs for U.S. automakers provides temporary relief but does not address the underlying issues and uncertainties that the tariffs will create once the exemption period ends [1][12]. Group 1: Immediate Market Reaction - The announcement of the one-month exemption led to a recovery in auto stocks, with Ford, General Motors, and Stellantis seeing stock price increases of approximately 6%, 7%, and 9% respectively [2]. - Tesla also experienced a 2.6% gain following the news, recovering from a previous drop of 4.4% [2]. Group 2: Impact on Vehicle Prices - Tariffs are projected to increase vehicle prices by as much as $12,000 for cars not yet built or imported, with the average new car price nearing $49,000 expected to rise by at least $3,000 [4]. - Full-size pickup trucks, a significant segment for U.S. automakers, could see price hikes of up to $10,000 [4]. Group 3: Inventory and Consumer Options - Current new car inventory is up 12% compared to last year, providing consumers a limited opportunity to purchase vehicles at pre-tariff prices [5]. - Used cars remain exempt from tariffs, but their availability is decreasing, with the supply of used cars declining from 49.5 days in January to 45.2 days in February [6]. Group 4: Long-Term Industry Consequences - The Big 3 automakers face varying exposure to tariffs, with GM and Stellantis particularly vulnerable due to their reliance on Mexican manufacturing [7]. - The complex supply chain means that no automaker is fully insulated from tariff impacts, and the one-month exemption only delays the inevitable cost increases [8][9]. Group 5: Predictions and Future Outlook - Prolonged tariffs could lead to production slowdowns or shutdowns, with S&P Global Mobility warning of a potential "Tariff Winter" scenario, predicting a 10% decline in North American light-vehicle sales over several years if tariffs persist beyond eight weeks [10]. - The market's short-term boost does not resolve the long-term challenges posed by tariffs, and companies are strategizing on how to manage increased costs [12].

Core Viewpoint - The recent rally in auto maker stocks, particularly Ford and GM, is showing signs of faltering due to various market pressures and economic factors [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Ford's stock has declined by approximately 5% following disappointing earnings reports and concerns over production costs [1] - GM's shares have also dropped, reflecting investor anxiety over the company's ability to maintain profitability amid rising material costs and supply chain challenges [1] Group 2: Industry Trends - The auto industry is facing headwinds from increased interest rates, which are impacting consumer financing options and overall vehicle demand [1] - Analysts are noting a shift in consumer preferences towards electric vehicles, which may require traditional automakers to adapt their strategies significantly [1]

Core Insights - The "Big Three" U.S. automakers, Ford Motor Co., General Motors Co., and Stellantis NV, are expected to increase their inventories now that they have received a reprieve from tariffs on Canadian and Mexican products [1] Group 1 - Ford Motor Co., General Motors Co., and Stellantis NV are likely to build up inventories as quickly as possible [1]

Group 1 - Proactive provides fast, accessible, informative, and actionable business and finance news content to a global investment audience [2] - The company focuses on medium and small-cap markets while also covering blue-chip companies, commodities, and broader investment stories [3] - Proactive's news team delivers insights across various sectors including biotech, pharma, mining, natural resources, battery metals, oil and gas, crypto, and emerging technologies [3] Group 2 - Proactive is committed to adopting technology to enhance workflows and improve content production [4] - The company utilizes automation and software tools, including generative AI, while ensuring all content is edited and authored by humans [5]

Group 1 - The White House has granted a one-month reprieve on tariffs for automakers Stellantis, Ford, and General Motors at their request [1][2][6] - Automakers will not receive another pause when the second round of trade-related tariffs goes into effect on April 2, and additional tariffs on steel and aluminum are set to begin on March 12 [3][4] - Shares of automakers rebounded on Wall Street following the announcement, indicating potential optimism among traders for future deals [3] Group 2 - The current tariffs are linked to President Trump's concerns regarding the flow of fentanyl from Canada and Mexico into the US, which has been disputed by leaders of those countries [4][5] - Trump expressed that he is open to dialogue regarding further exemptions for automakers [5][6]

Group 1 - The "Big Three" automakers, Stellantis, Ford, and General Motors, received a one-month exemption from tariffs imposed by the Trump administration [1][2] - The exemption allows these companies to avoid economic disadvantages while reciprocal tariffs are set to take effect on April 2 [2] - The Trump administration encourages these automakers to invest and shift production to the United States to avoid tariffs altogether [3] Group 2 - The administration's tariffs aim to match higher tariff rates from other countries and address trade barriers such as regulations and subsidies [5] - The trade review by the Trump administration is expected to be completed by April 1, focusing on countries with significant trade surpluses with the U.S. [4] - Critics argue that the tariffs could lead to increased prices for American consumers, while the administration views them as a negotiation tool [6]

Core Points - The White House announced a one-month tariff exemption for automakers after discussions with General Motors, Ford Motor, and Stellantis [1][2] - The exemption is intended to prevent economic disadvantages for automakers while reciprocal tariffs will still take effect on April 2 [2][4] - Shares of affected automakers rose between 4% and 9% following the announcement [3] Group 1: Tariff Exemption Details - The one-month delay allows for further discussions between the White House and the automotive industry regarding tariffs [4] - The exemption applies to vehicles that comply with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) [3][5] - It remains unclear if the exemption will also cover automotive parts in addition to vehicles [3] Group 2: Industry Impact - The American Automotive Policy Council, representing major automakers, argued for the exemption of vehicles and parts meeting USMCA requirements from tariff increases [5][6] - Former Missouri Governor Matt Blunt emphasized that tariffs could undermine the competitiveness of American automakers who have invested significantly in the U.S. [6] - S&P Global Mobility reported that 25 automakers produce an average of 63,900 light-duty passenger vehicles daily in North America, with 65% assembled in the U.S. [7]

Core Insights - Work Truck Solutions and Ford Pro have collaborated to launch an online tool that allows customers to search for and locate road and work-ready trucks and vans in Ford dealer inventory [1][2] - The tool, LocateFordWorkTrucks.com, simplifies the process of finding, purchasing, and replacing upfitted commercial vehicles, enhancing customer experience [2][3] Company Overview - Work Truck Solutions provides a technology platform that connects various stakeholders in the commercial vehicle ecosystem, including OEMs, upfitters, distributors, and dealers, to improve efficiency and visibility for businesses needing work trucks and vans [6] - Ford Motor Company is a global automotive leader focused on creating innovative vehicles and services tailored to customer needs, with a commitment to sustainability and customer loyalty through its Ford+ growth plan [7] Tool Features - The online tool features an intuitive interface with advanced search filters that cater to specific vehicle requirements such as body type, vehicle class, fuel type, and geographic location, ensuring businesses find the best vehicle for their needs [4][5] - The integration of Work Truck Solutions' search technology into FordPro.com provides a seamless user experience, aligning with Ford's commitment to quality and customer satisfaction [3][5]