需求恢复不及预期的风险；AIGC 进展不及预期的风险；外部制裁进一步升级的风险。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 继续看好 AI-PCB 及核心算力硬件、苹果产业链及自主可控受益产业链。Meta 2026 年全年资本开支指引超预 期，闪迪 2026 第三财季业绩指引超预期。我们继续看好覆铜板及存储芯片涨价趋势，具有较强的持续性，从产 业链公司陆续公布的营收及利润来看，业绩在持续兑现，继续看好核心受益公司。继续看好 AI-PCB 及核心算力 硬件、苹果产业链及自主可控受益产业链。 细分行业景气指标：消费电子（稳健向上）、PCB（加速向上）、半导体芯片（稳健向上）、半导体代工/设备/材料 /零部件（稳健向上）、显示（底部企稳）、被动元件（稳健向上）、封测（稳健向上）。 北美大厂 AI 开支超预期，存储业绩持续爆发。Meta 预计 2026 年全年资本支出在 1150 亿至 1350 亿美元之间， 主要用于数据中心、服务器和网络基础设施，较 25 年的约 700 亿美元 CAPEX 实现显著增长。我们看到 AI 对 meta 自身业务实现了积极帮助，AI 改进了推荐算法，直接导致用户在平台上的停留时间增加，新的序列学 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the AI-driven sectors, particularly in servers and IDC, driven by domestic and international AI developments [4]. Core Insights - Major companies like Industrial Fulian, Meta, and Microsoft are showing strong growth in their earnings, driven by AI investments and demand for high-performance computing [1][53]. - The report highlights a significant increase in capital expenditures by tech giants, indicating a robust investment trend in AI infrastructure [1][61]. - The demand for optical modules and servers is expected to rise due to the ongoing expansion of AI capabilities and infrastructure [2][35]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The telecommunications sector is experiencing steady growth, with a reported revenue of 16,096 billion yuan, reflecting a 0.9% year-on-year increase [3][14]. - The optical module exports have seen a decline, with a 24% drop in November, attributed to domestic companies establishing overseas factories [3][35]. Company Performance - Industrial Fulian anticipates a net profit of 351-357 billion yuan for 2025, marking a 51%-54% increase year-on-year, driven by strong growth in cloud services and AI servers [1][53]. - Meta's revenue for Q4 reached $59.893 billion, a 24% increase year-on-year, supported by recovering advertising business and AI investments [1][53]. - NewEase is expected to achieve a net profit of 94-99 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth of 231.24%-248.86% due to increasing demand for high-speed products [1][55]. Market Trends - The server index decreased by 5.70% this week but has increased by 1.20% for the month, indicating volatility in the market [2][6]. - The optical module index rose by 10.07% this week, reflecting strong demand for high-speed optical devices [2][6]. - The IDC index increased by 3.50% this week, with a notable 11.04% rise for the month, driven by advancements in AI models [2][9]. Future Projections - Companies are expected to continue investing heavily in AI infrastructure, with Alibaba planning to increase its investment in AI and cloud computing from 380 billion yuan to 480 billion yuan over the next three years [1][12]. - The report anticipates that the demand for AI-related services and products will continue to grow, leading to further investment opportunities in the sector [4][35].

Market Performance - S&P 500 increased by 0.3% while Nasdaq decreased by 0.2% this week[1] - Small-cap stocks led the decline with Russell 2000 value down by 1.0% and Russell 2000 growth down by 3.1%[1] - Key sectors showing gains include telecommunications (+9.0%) and technology hardware (+4.6%) while software and services fell by 6.9%[1] Fund Flows - Estimated fund flow for S&P 500 components was -$84.1 million this week, a significant drop from +$5.6 million last week[2] - Major inflows were seen in technology hardware (+$40.3 million) and media and entertainment (+$39.5 million) while software and services experienced outflows of -$106.0 million[2] Earnings Forecast - S&P 500's forward 12-month EPS expectation increased by 0.8% this week, up from 0.2% last week[3] - Notable upward revisions were in technology hardware (+5.6%) and automotive (+3.2%) sectors, while energy saw a downward revision of -2.7%[3] Risk Factors - Economic fundamentals, international political uncertainties, U.S. fiscal policy, and Federal Reserve monetary policy present significant risks[3]

Market Performance - S&P 500 increased by 0.3% while Nasdaq decreased by 0.2% this week[1] - Small-cap stocks led the decline with Russell 2000 value down by 1.0% and Russell 2000 growth down by 3.1%[1] - 13 sectors saw gains, while 10 sectors experienced losses, with telecommunications leading at +9.0%[1] Fund Flows - Estimated fund flow for S&P 500 components was -$84.1 million this week, down from +$5.6 million last week[2] - Major inflows were seen in technology hardware (+$40.3 million) and media & entertainment (+$39.5 million)[2] - Significant outflows occurred in software & services (-$106.0 million) and healthcare equipment & services (-$57.7 million)[2] Earnings Forecast - S&P 500's forward 12-month EPS expectation increased by 0.8% this week, up from 0.2% last week[3] - 21 sectors had upward revisions, with technology hardware & equipment seeing the largest increase at +5.6%[3] - Energy sector saw a downward revision of -2.7%[3] Risks - Economic fundamentals, international political situations, U.S. fiscal policies, and Federal Reserve monetary policies present uncertainties[3]

该知情人士还表示，Waymo 本轮融资有望于 2 月完成交割。值得一提的是，Waymo 上一轮融资在 2024 年 10 月完成，当时其估值已超过 450 亿美元，且 同样是由旗下拥有谷歌的 Alphabet 主导领投。 据彭博社援引知情人士消息，谷歌母公司 Alphabet 旗下的自动驾驶子公司 Waymo 正积极筹备新一轮大规模融资，计划筹集约 160 亿美元资金（按当前汇 率约合 1114.33 亿元人民币）。若此次融资顺利完成，Waymo 的公司估值将接近 1100 亿美元（按当前汇率约合 7661.02 亿元人民币）。 据知情人士透露，相关磋商目前尚未公开披露，在本轮融资里，Waymo 的母公司 Alphabet 将向这家自动驾驶出租车企业注入约 130 亿美元资金，而剩余 所需资金将由外部投资方提供，其中涵盖新加入的投资方红杉资本、DST 全球以及 Dragoneer 投资集团。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the long-term impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on the market and identifies three stocks—Alphabet, Microsoft, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing—as strong investment opportunities for the future [1][2]. Group 1: Alphabet - Alphabet has regained its position as a leading player in the AI sector, with its Gemini generative AI model being one of the best available [3]. - The company possesses unique advantages, such as access to personal information, which allows Gemini to create tailored experiences for users, a feature that competitors cannot replicate [3][5]. - Alphabet's substantial resources enable it to sustain operations at a loss longer than smaller competitors, positioning it to dominate the market in the future [5][6]. Group 2: Microsoft - Microsoft adopts a partnership approach in the AI landscape, holding a significant stake in OpenAI and providing access to multiple AI models through its Azure cloud platform [7]. - This neutrality in AI model selection has contributed to Azure's rapid growth compared to its competitors [7][9]. - Microsoft is viewed as a solid investment in the AI sector, with its strategy likely to yield gradual gains as AI adoption increases [9]. Group 3: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing - Taiwan Semiconductor is crucial for AI technology, as it manufactures chips that power major computing players like Nvidia, which only designs chips [10]. - Despite concerns about the longevity of AI computing capacity, the short lifespan of GPUs (typically one to three years) suggests ongoing demand for chips, ensuring a steady market for Taiwan Semiconductor [12]. - The company is still in the early stages of benefiting from AI growth, with many announced data centers not expected to become operational until several years later, making it a compelling long-term investment [13].

Core Viewpoint - Google has integrated its latest AI model, Gemini 3, into the Chrome browser, marking a significant shift towards AI-driven browsing experiences for nearly 4 billion users, which is the fastest and largest scale of AI technology adoption in history [4][8]. Group 1: Product Integration and Features - Gemini 3 is not just a chatbot but is embedded directly into Chrome, allowing users to access it via a sidebar for real-time assistance on any webpage [4]. - The "Auto Browse" feature enables AI to autonomously navigate websites, fill out forms, and complete tasks without user intervention, representing a shift to an "Agent era" where AI acts as a proactive assistant [4][10]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The urgency for Google to integrate AI into Chrome stems from competition with emerging AI-native browsers like OpenAI's Atlas and Perplexity's Comet, which provide direct answers without the need for traditional searches [8][10]. - Google's market share in the browser space is approximately 70%, and failure to adapt could result in losing this critical entry point to competitors [8]. Group 3: Business Model Transformation - Google's primary revenue model relies on advertising, projected to generate over $200 billion in 2025. However, the rise of AI may reduce the need for traditional search ads, prompting Google to explore new revenue streams through AI service subscriptions and enhancements [9][10]. Group 4: Market Impact - The integration of Gemini 3 is expected to benefit Google significantly, with stock prices rising nearly 20% in the past two months. Additionally, AI Agent startups and cloud service providers like AWS and Azure are likely to gain from increased demand for computational resources [12][13]. - Conversely, emerging AI browser startups and traditional search engines may face severe challenges as user behavior shifts towards AI-driven solutions that provide immediate answers [13]. Group 5: Domestic Market Response - Major Chinese tech companies, including Baidu, Tencent, and Alibaba, are reportedly testing AI integration in their browsers, although their strategies may differ from Google's approach [16][18]. - The concept of "AI group chat" is being explored by these companies, allowing multiple AI agents to collaborate within a single interface, which could serve as an alternative to traditional browser AI [17][18]. Group 6: Opportunities for Entrepreneurs and Individuals - Entrepreneurs are advised to focus on niche markets such as vertical industry AI agents, enterprise-level multi-agent collaboration platforms, and tools for managing AI applications, as these areas present significant opportunities [20][21]. - For individuals, enhancing productivity through AI tools and learning to manage AI effectively will be crucial for staying competitive in the evolving job market [22][23]. Group 7: Time Sensitivity - The window for capitalizing on these changes is estimated to be limited to the next two years, emphasizing the urgency for stakeholders to adapt and innovate [26].

Economic Data - China's January Manufacturing PMI is expected to be 50.1, indicating a slight recovery in manufacturing activity [3] - Eurozone's January Manufacturing PMI final value is reported at 49.4, showing continued contraction [3] - The US ISM Manufacturing Index for January is anticipated to rise to 48.3 from 47.9, suggesting a potential stabilization in manufacturing [3] Central Bank Decisions - The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to raise its policy rate to 3.85% from 3.6% [4] - The European Central Bank and the Bank of England are both expected to maintain their current interest rates during their upcoming meetings [9] Major Corporate Earnings - Key earnings reports are expected from major companies including Disney, Pepsi, Merck, and Pfizer, with a focus on their performance in the current economic climate [4][26] - Tech giants like Google and Amazon will report on their cloud business growth, which is critical for assessing AI monetization capabilities [6][26] Geopolitical Events - Ongoing tensions in Iran are highlighted, with the US increasing military presence in the region, which may impact global markets [12] - Japan and Thailand are set to hold significant elections on February 8, which could influence regional political stability [15][17] IPOs and Market Movements - Muyuan Foods is set to launch its IPO in Hong Kong, potentially raising up to 14 billion HKD (approximately 1.8 billion USD) [28] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has adjusted the trading limits and margin requirements for silver futures, reflecting a tightening in trading conditions [11] Commodity Market Changes - CME has raised the margin requirements for gold from 6% to 8% and for silver from 11% to 15%, indicating a move to reduce leverage in the precious metals market [10] - The Chinese government has implemented a temporary 5% import tax on whiskey starting February 2 [19]

据知情人士透露，相关磋商目前尚未公开披露，在本轮融资里，Waymo 的母公司 Alphabet 将向这家自动驾驶出租车企业注入约 130 亿美元资金，而剩余所 需资金将由外部投资方提供，其中涵盖新加入的投资方红杉资本、DST 全球以及 Dragoneer 投资集团。 该知情人士还表示，Waymo 本轮融资有望于 2 月完成交割。值得一提的是，Waymo 上一轮融资在 2024 年 10 月完成，当时其估值已超过 450 亿美元，且同 样是由旗下拥有谷歌的 Alphabet 主导领投。（青山） 【环球网科技综合报道】2月1日消息，据彭博社援引知情人士消息，谷歌母公司 Alphabet 旗下的自动驾驶子公司 Waymo正积极筹备新一轮大规模融资，计 划筹集约 160 亿美元资金（按当前汇率约合 1114.33 亿元人民币）。若此次融资顺利完成，Waymo 的公司估值将接近 1100 亿美元（按当前汇率约合 7661.02 亿元人民币）。 ...

Core Insights - The rising adoption of generative AI models from OpenAI and Anthropic is significantly impacting major cloud computing platforms, with trillions of dollars committed to future infrastructure projects by these companies [1] Group 1: OpenAI and Microsoft - OpenAI's partnership with Microsoft has provided the latter with a first-mover advantage in integrating generative AI, with ChatGPT being heavily utilized across Microsoft's Azure cloud services [3][5] - The increasing use of OpenAI's software has led to a surge in AI workloads on Azure, driving demand for incremental cloud services [4] Group 2: Amazon's Role in AI Infrastructure - Amazon Web Services (AWS) has entered a $38 billion GPU leasing deal to support OpenAI, highlighting the competitive landscape among cloud providers [7] - Amazon has invested $8 billion in Anthropic, positioning itself strategically in the AI sector, with Anthropic utilizing AWS's GPU clusters and custom-designed chips [8][9] - If Amazon's AI accelerators can compete effectively with Nvidia and AMD's GPUs, AWS could gain significant pricing power and increase customer retention [10][11] Group 3: Google Cloud's Position - Google Cloud has experienced impressive growth, with OpenAI and Anthropic as key customers, leveraging its computing power and custom chips [12][13] - Anthropic's use of Google Cloud's Tensor Processing Units (TPUs) is expected to enhance Google Cloud's competitive position in the AI infrastructure market [14] - As OpenAI addresses its capacity challenges, Google Cloud is likely to benefit from increased user adoption and ongoing data center expansion [15]