Seems like Wall Street saved the best for last. Goldman Sachs capped off a week of big bank earnings calls with a blockbuster report on Thursday that made Wall Street history. Joining the investment bank was rival Morgan Stanley, which similarly reported gangbuster earnings. Big banks are officially playing offense once again. Some of them, anyway. JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and Citi, which reported their quarterly performance earlier in the week, didn’t fare as well. SUBSCRIBE:  Receive more of ou ...

高盛称，全球原油市场"先把风险写进去了"，已经将伊朗供应中断计入预期。 高盛指出，这相当于把"油价风险溢价"与"潜在供应缺口"的映射关系摆到台面上：当前涨幅对应的，并 非极端断供，而是一个被市场认为可能持续的中断量级。 期权市场：70美元区间的概率上调 期权市场的定价更加明确地反映了这种担忧。 1月16日，据追风交易台消息，高盛在最新研报中称，布伦特原油今年以来上涨近6美元/桶至66美元/桶 以上，在其定价框架下，这一涨幅相当于市场已将未来12个月持续70万桶/日的伊朗相关供应中断计入 价格。 研报还指出，期权市场数据进一步印证了这一风险溢价：布伦特原油3个月远期合约到期时触及70美元 区间的概率从两周前的不到7%大幅升至15%，高于80美元/桶的概率仍偏低，为5%。 高盛还特别指出，供给端的另一条线索是，委内瑞拉增供预期在发酵。同时，重质油相对轻质油的品质 价差扩大约2美元/桶，与其"年末委内瑞拉重油产量增加30万桶/日"的假设一致。 伊朗风险：现货价格已在"对照"70万桶/日的中断 报告指出，全球原油市场正在计入与伊朗相关的显著供应中断风险： 布伦特升至66美元/桶以上、年初至今上涨近6美元/桶，结合其定 ...

据高盛此前发布的报告，当前，美国数据中心容量占全球的44%，已消耗美国约6%的电力，预计到 2030年，这一比例将上升至11%，而衡量电网可靠性的有效备用电力容量指标却从5年前的26%降至 19%。在全美13个区域电网中，8个已达到或低于该临界值，弗吉尼亚州等数据中心密集地区均出现电 价飙升现象。 据彭博社报道，当地时间1月7日，全球知名投行高盛表示，在数据中心用电需求迅猛增长的背景下，到 2030年，美国几乎所有电力电网都将面临备用容量不足的问题，或为中国在人工智能竞争中取得先发优 势提供机遇。 "如果电力约束持续存在，中国有可能在AI竞赛中实现反超。"高盛全球大宗商品研究联席主管Samantha Dart直言，美国的新增发电能力跟不上需求增长。按行业惯例，电网需要保持至少15%的备用裕度，才 能在峰值负荷与可用发电能力间形成安全空间。但目前，美国部分电网已低于这一水平，随着数据中心 持续拉动用电需求，备用不足的问题在未来几年只会进一步恶化。 与此形成鲜明对比的是，中国电力供应展现出强大韧性。高盛报告指出，预计到2030年，中国将拥有约 400吉瓦的备用电力容量，达到全球数据中心预期总需求的3倍以上。 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the U.S. economy with a projected GDP growth rate of 2.5% for Q4 2026, suggesting an investment rating that leans towards optimism for the U.S. market [1][3]. Core Insights - Goldman Sachs predicts that the U.S. economy will benefit from reduced tariff impacts, tax cuts, corporate fiscal support, and potential further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to a GDP growth forecast that exceeds market consensus [1][2][3]. - For China, the economic growth forecast for 2026 is also above market consensus, driven by export growth that offsets negative impacts from the real estate sector, with an expected current account surplus reaching about 1% of global GDP [1][6]. - The report anticipates a continued weakening of the U.S. dollar in 2026, primarily due to the Federal Reserve's potential for larger rate cuts compared to other developed markets [1][8]. Summary by Sections U.S. Economic Outlook - The U.S. GDP growth is expected to be 2.5% in Q4 2026, supported by factors such as reduced tariffs, tax relief for consumers, and corporate fiscal support [1][3]. - The labor market is projected to remain stable with an unemployment rate around 4.5%, despite rising productivity levels [4]. China Economic Forecast - China's economic growth is anticipated to surpass market expectations, with export growth compensating for real estate sector weaknesses [1][6]. - The current account surplus is expected to expand, reflecting strong performance in export-oriented industries [6]. Currency and Inflation Trends - The report forecasts a continued decline in the U.S. dollar, influenced by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [1][8]. - Inflation in developed countries is cooling, with expectations that it will approach central bank targets by the end of the year [11][12]. Market Dynamics - The report suggests that the stock market may continue to perform well, although at a diminishing rate, due to a favorable macro environment [13]. - Credit markets are viewed as less favorable compared to equity markets, with narrowing spreads limiting upside potential [14].

在连续两日回调后，华尔街主要股指周四集体收高。芯片制造商台积电公布强劲财报，提振半导体板块 整体走强；与此同时，摩根士丹利和高盛业绩超出市场预期，推动金融股回暖。能源板块则在国际油价 大幅回落的拖累下走弱。 截至收盘，道琼斯工业指数上涨292.81点，涨幅0.60%，报49442.44点；纳斯达克综合指数上涨58.27 点，涨幅0.25%，报23530.02点；标普500指数上涨17.87点，涨幅0.26%，报6944.47点。 热门股表现 大型科技股涨跌不一，英伟达涨2.13%，亚马逊涨0.62%，Meta涨0.86%，谷歌A跌0.91%，苹果跌 0.69%，特斯拉跌0.13%，微软跌0.59%。 台积电股价收涨4.5%，此前公司公布再度刷新纪录的季度业绩，利润同比增长35%。该财报重新点燃了 市场对人工智能相关需求韧性的信心。 受此带动，费城半导体指数上涨1.76%，并创下收盘纪录。盘中该指数一度大涨近4%，但在尾盘有所回 吐，科技板块和纳指的涨幅亦相应收窄。 金融板块成为当日另一大支撑力量，摩根士丹利和高盛披露利好业绩，股价分别大涨5.8%和4.6%，双 双创下收盘新高。 高盛披露，第四季度净利润为46 ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs reports that LME copper prices have surged 23% since November, exceeding $13,000, driven primarily by speculative capital inflows rather than fundamental factors [2] - The recent price increase is not attributed to the strengthening dollar, expectations of Chinese economic growth, or supply tightness outside the U.S., despite rising inventories in the U.S. and abroad [2] - Goldman Sachs correctly predicted that copper tariffs would not be announced alongside the critical minerals order signed on January 14 under Section 232, which retains the possibility of future tariffs [2] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs maintains its baseline forecast that refined copper tariffs will be announced mid-year and implemented by January 2027, indicating a shift away from relying solely on tariffs for metal supply security [3] - China's copper industry faces three major challenges: increasing dependence on foreign resources, overcapacity in the midstream processing sector, and suppressed downstream demand due to high copper prices [4]

Group 1: Quarterly Results and Market Reactions - Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley reported a rise in quarterly profit, driven by increased dealmaking, with Goldman shares rising 4.6% and Morgan Stanley gaining 5.8% [1][9] - BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, saw its shares increase by 5.9% as market rallies boosted fee income and assets under management reached a record $14.04 trillion in Q4 [7][10] - The results from these banks have initiated the fourth-quarter U.S. earnings season, which is expected to gain momentum with a more diverse group of companies reporting next week [8][10] Group 2: Sector Performance and Trends - The S&P 500 industrials index achieved a closing record high, indicating strong performance in traditional sectors [2][10] - Investors are currently favoring undervalued stocks in the banking and industrial sectors over tech stocks, which have been seen as overvalued recently [2][6] - Both mid-cap and small-cap indices, particularly the Russell 2000, have outperformed the S&P 500 this year, with the Russell 2000 reaching a closing record high [7][10] Group 3: Technology Sector Insights - Tech stocks, particularly chipmakers, experienced gains, with TSMC predicting robust annual growth and announcing plans for increased U.S. manufacturing capacity, leading to a 4.4% rise in its U.S.-listed shares [4][10] - An index of semiconductors climbed by 1.8%, with notable increases in shares of Nvidia, Broadcom, and Applied Materials [5][10] - Concerns regarding tech stock valuations have been alleviated by positive news from TSMC, which has helped restore momentum in the tech sector [6][10] Group 4: Market Activity Metrics - U.S. exchange volume reached 19.12 billion shares, surpassing the 16.81 billion average over the last 20 trading days, indicating heightened trading activity [8][10] - On the NYSE, advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a ratio of 1.92-to-1, with 759 new highs and 55 new lows recorded [8][10] - The Nasdaq also saw a favorable ratio of advancing to declining stocks at 1.26-to-1, with 2,683 stocks rising and 2,137 falling [9][10]

格隆汇1月16日｜据彭博，高盛集团正在关注预测市场的机会，高盛CEO所罗门称预测市场"极为有 趣"，并表示在过去两周内，他亲自会见了两家最大预测市场公司的领导人。所罗门表示："我当然能预 见这与我们业务的交汇点。"他指的是受美国商品期货交易委员会监管的预测市场合约。不过，他也提 醒称其接纳速度可能不会像一些观察人士预测的那样快。 ...

Market Overview - US stock market closed higher, driven by gains in bank and chip stocks, with the Dow Jones up by 292.81 points (0.60%) to 49,442.44, the Nasdaq up by 58.27 points (0.25%) to 23,530.02, and the S&P 500 up by 17.87 points (0.26%) to 6,944.47 [2] Chip Sector - The semiconductor sector saw a broad increase, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rising by 1.76%, reaching a new all-time high. Notable gains included KLA Corporation up over 7%, Applied Materials up over 5%, ASML up over 5%, TSMC up over 4%, and AMD up 1.93% [10][11] - TSMC reported a 35% increase in net profit for Q4 2025, reaching approximately $16 billion, significantly exceeding expectations and marking seven consecutive quarters of double-digit growth [11] Bank Sector - Most bank stocks experienced gains, with Morgan Stanley up nearly 6%, Goldman Sachs up over 4%, Citigroup up over 4%, and JPMorgan up 0.48%. Wells Fargo was the only bank to decline, down 0.34% [16][17] - Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley reported record revenues in their trading divisions for the previous year. Goldman Sachs plans to issue investment-grade bonds to raise $16 billion, marking the largest such issuance in Wall Street history [17] Commodity Market - Oil prices fell sharply, with Brent crude down by $2.76 (4.15%) and WTI crude down by $2.83 (4.56%). This decline is attributed to market perceptions regarding potential de-escalation of military actions in the Middle East [19] - Gold and silver prices also dropped significantly, with silver down over 1.5% following the oil price decline [19][20]

华尔街金融巨头高盛集团(GS.US)在去年最后一个季度重新回到了华尔街股票资本市场(即ECM市场)营收排行榜的榜 首位置，高盛夺魁之际正值华尔街各大银行业巨头们争夺有望于2026年在美股市场进行首次公开募股(IPO)大型项目 (包括OpenAI、Anthropic以及SpaceX等)的承销角色。此外，高盛集团正在密切关注预测市场(Prediction Markets)领域 的重大投资机遇，希望借此在这一快速增长的且围绕现实世界事件下注的平台中获益，力争成为类似Polymarket这样 的预测市场平台。 这家总部位于纽约的金融巨头报告称，2025年最后三个月，其股票承销性质的营收约为5.21亿美元，超越了摩根士丹 利的4.94亿美元和摩根大通的4.16亿美元同项业务营收规模。 短期内难以逾越 高盛首席执行官大卫.所罗门表示，这一数字(2025年最后三个月的股票承销类营收数据)在短期内不太可能被超越。 如上图所示，高盛领跑华尔街第四季度股票承销业务。 "我猜测，股票资本市场的整体水平在2026年仍会明显低于2021年的峰值，但会稍微高于今年的水平，至于季度水平 则难以精准预测。"所罗门在周四的银行财报电话会议上告 ...