金十数据4月30日讯，高盛最新研报表示，美国3月份商品贸易逆差扩大幅度超过预期。三月份货物进出 口双双增长。贸易逆差扩大的主要原因是消费品进口增加，这可能反映了在关税上调之前进口的"抢 跑"。先行经济指标报告的细节显示，与我们之前的GDP追踪假设相比，进口增长明显强劲，但出口增 长温和走强，库存积累速度加快。总体而言，我们将美国第一季度GDP跟踪预测下调了0.6个百分点 至-0.8%（季度环比年化）。美国GDP数据将于30日晚间公布。 高盛大幅下调美国一季度GDP增速至-0.8% ...

在这两部分债券中，6亿美元债券久期最长为五年，定价较可比美债的收益率溢价2.5个百分点，最初讨 论的是溢价2.85个百分点。（彭博） 高盛集团旗下私人信用Goldman Sachs Private Credit Corp.发行10亿美元高评级债券。 ...

智通财经4月29日电，高盛首席执行官表示，需要更多时间来观察美国政策的走向。美国政策已将不确 定性提高到了不健康的水平。 ...

Flood重复地强调："这是一段疯狂的旅程。" 那么，Flood们是如何走到今天的？接下来会如何发展？以下是Flood最新笔记 中的一些摘录： Flood继续强调3月7日和3月10日这两天，这是他见过的对冲基金圈子里去杠杆和收益损失最严重的两天。这次回撤（幸运 地）为4月2日前后的仓位清理奠定了基础。对冲基金大幅削减了净敞口，但由于继续通过宏观产品做空（对冲），总敞口 仍然顽固地保持在高位（这就是4月9日标普500指数上涨10%的原因）。Flood的融资交易（PB）团队估计，目前平均基本 面多空对冲基金（L/S HF）今年至今亏损约1%。总敞口为210%（过去一年中的第100百分位），净敞口为47%（过去一年 中的第7百分位）…… 然后，从4月3日到上周一（4月21日），高盛在美国股票市场上观察到来自长线投资者的一致性/大规模抛售。四月份的大部 分时间，资产管理人都在筹集现金（因为他们进入这个季度时持有的现金比例是有史以来最低的，仅为资产管理规模 （AUM）的1.4%——具有讽刺意味的是，同期巴菲特的现金储备创下了新高）。不过自4月2日以来，这个现金比例显然大 幅上升，Flood团队将在本周获得新的估算数据。 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The heightened US tariffs are expected to significantly impact the Chinese economy and labor market, with a focus on labor market stability as a critical concern for policymakers [2][3] - The report estimates that approximately 16 million jobs are involved in the production of goods exported to the US, with significant vulnerabilities in sectors such as wholesale and retail sales, communication equipment, apparel, and chemical products [2][4][30] - The outlook for US-China tariffs and Chinese exports remains uncertain, with potential for a significant contraction in exports if high tariffs persist [4][38] Summary by Sections Economic Impact - The Trump administration's tariff increases have led to a reduction in the GDP growth forecasts for China, with projections for 2025 and 2026 lowered by 0.5 percentage points to 4.0% and 3.5% respectively [3] - Historical data indicates that during the 2008-09 global financial crisis, a similar decline in exports resulted in substantial employment pressures, particularly among low-skilled migrant workers [2][7] Labor Market Analysis - The report utilizes input-output analysis to quantify the impact of US tariffs on the labor market, highlighting that labor market pressures are expected to increase if exports decline sharply [2][27] - The labor intensity of US-bound goods exports is higher than that of the overall manufacturing sector, indicating that job losses could be significant in affected industries [20][26] Policy Responses - In response to potential unemployment pressures, the Chinese government has indicated plans to enhance unemployment insurance rebates and implement a comprehensive employment stabilization package [3][39] - Historical trends suggest that the People's Bank of China (PBOC) typically cuts policy rates in response to labor market weaknesses, with expectations for monetary easing in the near future [39][40]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report forecasts a soft GDP growth of 0.5% for 2025 Q4/Q4, primarily due to the negative impacts of tariffs, which are likened to a tax hike, tightening financial conditions, and increasing business uncertainty [3][6] - It identifies three main risks: higher production costs due to tariffs, high foreign retaliatory tariffs, and loss of access to rare earth elements, all of which could disrupt production and employment [3][34] Summary by Sections Economic Impact of Tariffs - The report estimates that tariff-driven cost increases could raise US production costs by 5-15% in some industries, significantly affecting their competitiveness [11][17] - It highlights that tariffed US exports to China account for approximately 0.5% of US GDP and support over 750,000 jobs across various sectors [28][30] Risks from Retaliatory Tariffs - China's 125% tariff on US exports is expected to block most exports, posing a significant risk to industries reliant on the Chinese market [26][28] - The report notes that while other countries have been restrained in retaliating against US exports, the high tariff rates could lead to further economic disruptions if not addressed [30][43] Rare Earth Element Restrictions - The report discusses the potential impact of China's restrictions on rare earth exports, which could disrupt production in industries that rely heavily on these materials [34][35] - It estimates that disruptions could affect between 200,000 to 500,000 jobs depending on the severity of the restrictions [35] Sector Analyst Insights - A survey of sector analysts indicates that about half expect trade-war related production disruptions and layoffs, with concerns primarily centered around retaliatory tariffs [39][41] - The report emphasizes the uncertainty surrounding how companies will adapt to these risks, with potential responses including halting production or seeking alternative markets [39][41] Monitoring Trade War Risks - The report introduces trade war trackers to monitor industrial production and payrolls in the most affected industries, providing a framework to assess ongoing impacts [44][47] - It suggests that the current high tariff rates could lead to unintended consequences, further risking GDP forecasts if not mitigated [43][44]

28 April 2025 | 11:09AM HKT China: What do local clients think about the economy? Local marketing takeaways April 2025 Over the past week, we met with onshore clients in Beijing and Shanghai, including mutual funds, private equity firms, and asset managers from banks, brokers and insurance companies. Compared to two months ago (late February), local investors are more concerned about China's economic outlook, mainly due to the elevated US reciprocal tariffs and the uncertainty surrounding the Trump administ ...

本报记者 罗辑 北京报道 4月28日，特朗普重返白宫即将满百日。 Wind数据显示，从1月20日特朗普重返白宫以来，美元指数下跌约9%，若不能迅速反弹，到百日之 期，或创下自1973年以来历任美国总统上任百日内的最大跌幅。 这意味着，近期出现的美元抛售潮，或是1971年"尼克松冲击"（当时尼克松推动了包括美元脱离金本位 在内的相关政策，导致布雷顿森林体系崩溃引发全球抛售美元）以来，美元在历任美国总统"百日执 政"中的最差表现。 虽然近日美元指数有微幅反弹，但远不及收复"对等关税"风暴砸出的深坑，更勿论回到2025年年初的高 点。 "自4月2日特朗普宣布全面及对等关税以来，美元和美国国债同时走弱，令市场有些恐慌。近期这两个 市场似乎都逐步稳定下来，但波动并未结束。"对上述走势，瑞银财富管理投资总监办公室发表机构观 点提到，"我们认为至少在未来几个月内市场波动可能会持续，且波动范围也可能扩大。特朗普政府难 以预测的关税政策削弱了市场对美元的信心，而且这种损害可能不会轻易逆转。" 目前，市场的主要担忧是，在对等关税90天暂缓期内可能不会达成全面且长久的贸易协议。因此，瑞银 财富管理投资总监办公室提示，应关注美元及其 ...

智通财经APP注意到，周一美元走弱提振了包括日元和瑞士法郎在内的避险货币，因投资者在特朗普政策下抛售美国资产——摩根大通预计这一趋势将持 续。 由于贸易协议进展停滞，彭博美元现货指数下跌0.5%，年内累计跌幅近7%。周一公布的制造业活动数据不及预期，加剧了市场对美国经济增长的担忧，进 一步拖累美元。日元和瑞士法郎等其他避险货币当日上涨约1%，英镑则飙升至三年高位。 摩根大通全球外汇策略联席主管米拉·钱丹在接受采访时表示："我们预计美元将迎来第二轮疲软，这是一个将持续数季度的周期性转变。" 特朗普的贸易政策和对华强硬言论促使投资者开始大举买入美国以外资产。另一项美元指标自1月20日(特朗普重返白宫之日)至4月28日已下跌约9%，势将创 下至少1973年以来最大单月跌幅。 美国商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)数据显示，截至4月22日当周，对冲基金和资产管理公司等投机交易者加大了对美元的看空押注，净空头仓位创2024年9月 以来新高。长期投资者也将加入资金撤离美国的行列——由于他们调整策略的频率较低，其撤离意味着美元可能长期承压。 钱丹指出，特朗普政府的政策正在削弱"美国例外主义"这一过去几年支撑市场的主题。"美国增 ...

智通财经4月28日电，利弗莫尔证券显示，湖南鸣鸣很忙商业连锁股份有限公司向港交所提交上市申请 书，联席保荐人为高盛、华泰国际。 ...