高盛预计各国央行将买入更多人民币、新加坡元和韩元 智通财经4月30日电，高盛策略师在一份报告中写道，尽管美元和欧元仍是最主要的储备资产，但随着 美元主导地位的下降，各国央行有空间增加对"非传统"货币的配置。高盛认为，韩元、新加坡元和人民 币可能是亚洲的首选货币。"我们认为远离美元的多元化趋势应该会持续，这一趋势在过去十年得到了 加强，"他们写道。 ...

金十整理：机构预期今晚20:15公布的美国4月ADP就业人数（前值：+15.5万） 1. 日兴证券：+6.5万；瑞穗证券：+8.5万；斯巴达资本：+9.0万；荷兰国际：+10.0万； 2. 蒙特利尔：+11.0万；高盛集团：+11.0万；斯蒂菲尔：+12.0万；法巴银行：+12.4万； 3. 劳埃德银行：+13.0万；丰业银行：+14.5万；德意志银行：+15.0万； [路透调查：+11.5万] ...

智通财经APP获悉，当前，市场剧烈波动，贸易战乱局持续，人们纷纷感到恐慌之际，部分高管却也看 到了曙光。高盛(GS.US)首席执行官大卫·所罗门周二表示，尽管当前并购和首次公开募股(IPO)活动低 迷，但乱象过后，"一切终将平息"。 所罗门在接受采访时指出："如果不确定性进一步加剧，资本活动规模的确会受到影响，但局面终将稳 定下来。人们始终有交易需求，需要筹集资金，也需要投资流动性。当前的部分情况，不过是预期的调 整。" 他还补充道，财政部有关放宽银行监管的表态令他倍感振奋。他说，"我坚信，扭转此前阻碍经济增长 的监管态势存在机遇。释放部分资本，使其在金融体系中循环流动，进而推动信贷活动。因此我乐观认 为，美国金融监管领域将迎来积极变革。" 此外，所罗门认为美债仍是"避风港"。不过，所罗门也警示，当前政策的不确定性已危害经济健康。受 唐纳德·特朗普总统关税政策影响，越来越多企业首席执行官预计经济将陷入衰退，美联储主席杰罗姆· 鲍威尔也表示，这些关税"极有可能"推高通胀。 这位高盛首席执行官指出："目前的政策举措引发的不确定性已达到不健康水平，这对投资和经济增长 不利。在与企业首席执行官和客户的交流中，我发现他 ...

智通财经4月30日电，高盛公司将星巴克评级下调至中性，目标价85美元，高盛公司分析师Christine Cho之前的评级为买进。星巴克在4月29日公布的季度盈利和营收低于预期。 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Recent land market data indicates "green shoots" with higher land prices in major cities and increased land transactions, suggesting potential recovery in the property sector [5][6][7] - Despite these signs, the report cautions that they do not predict an immediate rise in property construction due to ongoing challenges in local government financing and land availability [5][6][38] - The property sector remains critical to China's GDP, accounting for approximately 19% of GDP in 2024, down from a peak of around 27% in 2020 [8][41] Summary by Sections Land Market Dynamics - Land sales data has shown recent improvements, with land prices rising in Tier-1 and some Tier-2 cities, while lower-tier cities continue to struggle [13][14] - Local government financing vehicles (LGFVs) accounted for 70% of total land sales volume in 2024, indicating a reliance on these entities for revenue generation rather than construction [5][23][24] Supply-Demand Mismatch - There is a persistent supply-demand mismatch across city tiers, with large cities experiencing a decline in land sales volume since 2021, while lower-tier cities face significant challenges from population outflows and high housing inventory [29][30] Government Revenue and Fiscal Implications - Government land sales revenue is expected to contract by 5-10% in 2025, reflecting ongoing economic challenges and the impact of US tariffs [41][42] - The report anticipates that property construction and investment have not yet reached their lowest point, projecting a continued drag on GDP growth from the property sector [41][38] Future Outlook - Recent stabilization in land prices in major cities may help anchor home prices, particularly for quality homes, but a broader recovery in home prices is still distant [41][44]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a defensive tactical stance with an overweight (OW) on bonds and cash, neutral (N) on credit, and an underweight (UW) on equities and commodities for the next three months [4]. Core Insights - Financial markets are currently navigating between the risks of a US recession and the concept of US exceptionalism, leading to a sell-off in US cyclicals compared to defensives and a widening of credit spreads [2][3]. - Recent equity market rallies have been supported by easing global growth concerns and more dovish monetary policy expectations, with technology stocks, particularly the Nasdaq, leading the rebound [3][10]. - The report highlights a significant outflow of approximately $60 billion from US stocks by foreign investors since March 1, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [3]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - US existing home sales and Euro area composite PMIs have both come in below expectations, while non-farm payrolls (NFPs) are expected to rise by 140,000 in April, above consensus [1]. - The market has begun to price in higher recession risks, leading to a relative underperformance of US equities compared to non-US equities [2]. Asset Allocation Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on domestic defensive sectors in Europe and taking advantage of resets in cross-asset volatility to add selective overlay hedges [4][15]. - The allocation recommendations include an underweight in equities across various indices, with specific forecasts for the S&P 500 and other major indices indicating potential downside in the short term [15]. Performance Metrics - The report provides performance metrics indicating that US equities, particularly the Nasdaq, have outperformed other indices since April 21, while Asian markets, especially China, have lagged [3][10]. - The correlation between US and non-US equities has started to decline, suggesting a potential shift in market dynamics [3][9]. Valuation and Risk Premia - The report includes a cross-asset valuation table showing current valuations and their percentiles relative to the past ten years, indicating that US equities are at a 71% expensiveness percentile [59]. - The current dividend yield for the S&P 500 is 1.5%, which is at the 16th percentile compared to the last ten years, suggesting a relatively low yield environment [62]. Fund Flows and Positioning - The report notes significant fund flows, with a focus on the cumulative flows across various asset classes, indicating a preference for safe assets over risky ones in recent weeks [74][78]. - The positioning data shows net long positions in equities and commodities, reflecting investor sentiment and market expectations [86][88].

高盛集团首席执行官所罗门（David Solomon）表示，他认为并购和上市活动将找到一个舒适的水平， 尽管不确定性导致了投资银行活动放缓。 所罗门周二接受采访时表示："如果这种不确定性从现在开始加剧，是的，你看不到同样多的资本活动 ——但情况会平息下来。"他说："人们需要交易，需要融资，需要为其投资提供流动性。这只是期望值 的重设。" 这位银行高管警告称，当前的政策确定性水平不利于公开市场和私募市场，他的公司在其中持股越来越 多。在奥斯陆举行的挪威主权财富基金年度投资会议前进行的采访中，所罗门警告称，随着企业高管将 费用管理列为年度关键优先事项，裁员可能会增加。 所罗门表示，他对于从美国财政部听到的关于放松银行监管的消息感到鼓舞。他也对欧洲的监管发表了 看法，在那里，德国一项主要刺激计划已改善了该地区增长前景，而美国市场则相对滞后。 这位金融高管表示，他希望布鲁塞尔的官员能够撤销那些阻碍资本市场协同增长和银行业整合的监管规 定。 谈到欧洲时，他说："我确实感受到了一种决心和兴奋，关于实际推进工作，打破这里一些抑制增长的 监管壁垒，那将非常有建设性。在这里采取更多刺激性财政措施也将有利于增长。" （文章来源： ...

金十数据4月30日讯，高盛最新研报表示，美国3月份商品贸易逆差扩大幅度超过预期。三月份货物进出 口双双增长。贸易逆差扩大的主要原因是消费品进口增加，这可能反映了在关税上调之前进口的"抢 跑"。先行经济指标报告的细节显示，与我们之前的GDP追踪假设相比，进口增长明显强劲，但出口增 长温和走强，库存积累速度加快。总体而言，我们将美国第一季度GDP跟踪预测下调了0.6个百分点 至-0.8%（季度环比年化）。美国GDP数据将于30日晚间公布。 高盛大幅下调美国一季度GDP增速至-0.8% ...

在这两部分债券中，6亿美元债券久期最长为五年，定价较可比美债的收益率溢价2.5个百分点，最初讨 论的是溢价2.85个百分点。（彭博） 高盛集团旗下私人信用Goldman Sachs Private Credit Corp.发行10亿美元高评级债券。 ...

智通财经4月29日电，高盛首席执行官表示，需要更多时间来观察美国政策的走向。美国政策已将不确 定性提高到了不健康的水平。 ...