Core Viewpoint - The volatility of gold has surpassed that of Bitcoin, marking a significant shift in market dynamics, as gold is traditionally viewed as a stable safe-haven asset while Bitcoin is known for its extreme volatility [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold's 30-day volatility indicator has surged to over 44%, the highest level since the 2008 financial crisis, exceeding Bitcoin's volatility of approximately 39% [1]. - The recent spike in gold volatility reflects a broader market trend where traditional safe-haven assets respond more rapidly to macroeconomic risk changes compared to riskier assets like Bitcoin [2]. - The last time gold's volatility exceeded Bitcoin's was in May 2025, during a period of heightened trade tensions [3]. Group 2: Price Movements - Gold prices experienced a dramatic decline, with a drop of nearly 10% on a recent Monday, falling to around $4,400 per ounce from a peak close to $5,600 [6]. - Despite the recent volatility, gold prices have increased by approximately 66% over the past 12 months, while Bitcoin has decreased by 21% [8]. - Analysts from major financial institutions like JPMorgan and Bank of America predict that gold could reach $6,000 per ounce by the end of 2026, driven by ongoing demand from central banks and private investors [8][10]. Group 3: Investor Behavior - Retail investors in Asia have shown increased interest in purchasing physical gold, indicating a trend of "buying the dip" rather than panic selling [9]. - The macroeconomic drivers supporting the rise in gold and physical assets remain robust, with concerns over U.S. debt and currency depreciation continuing to fuel demand [9][10]. - Despite the recent price corrections, the long-term bullish outlook for gold remains intact, as the fundamental demand from central banks and retail investors is expected to persist [10].

以下为前投资银行家、企业律师、Goat Academy创始人Felix Prehn在2月1日节目中的核心观点提炼： 本次贵金属暴跌与一系列市场事件在时间点上高度重合。2026年1月底白银价格在24小时内从120美元暴跌35%至78美元，黄金同步下 挫12%，市值蒸发约3万亿美元。值得关注的是，此次暴跌恰逢伦敦金属交易所（LME）与汇丰银行系统同时中断、芝加哥商品交易所 （CME）突击上调保证金要求，且时间点精准对应亚洲市场周末休市期。 此次白银暴跌是一场精心策划的市场清洗。核心证据包括：摩根大通在价格最低点精准平仓空头头寸；芝加哥商品交易所突然大幅提 高保证金，导致杠杆交易者连环爆仓并引发算法踩踏；而路透社发布的虚假报道（称美国将终止战略金属支持，后被官方否认）则为 抛售潮推波助澜。 历史数据显示，类似的剧烈波动模式曾在1980年、2011年及2025年12月多次出现：当白银价格快速上涨后，交易所往往会上调保证金 要求，导致杠杆交易者被迫平仓，进而引发价格大幅下跌。本次暴跌是该模式第四次出现，且波动幅度显著扩大。 期货市场与实物市场已出现明显分化。纸白银价格易受保证金调整、算法交易等因素影响而剧烈波动，而实物 ...

据香港交易所披露，摩根大通（JPMorgan）对瑞声科技控股有限公司的多头持仓比例于2026年1月27日 从7.26%增至7.3%。 本文源自：金融界AI电报 ...

智通财经APP获悉，摩根大通在1月30日发布的研报中对凯文·沃什获提名担任下一任美联储主席一事进 行了深度剖析。报告指出，这位曾在2006年至2011年间担任美联储理事的官员，在金融危机后的岁月里 常显露鹰派本色，然而近期言论却明显转向鸽派，恰好与现任政府的货币政策偏好同频共振。这种立场 转换引发了一个关键疑问：沃什的真实政策倾向究竟如何，而这种倾向又能在多长时间内保持不变?小 摩的分析师认为，今年的沃什很可能会为降息政策据理力争，但随着时间推移，特别是在中期选举结 束、政府进入跛脚鸭阶段后，他的立场存在重新回归鹰派的风险，届时其政策取向可能面临重大调整。 然而，来自北卡罗来纳州的参议员蒂利斯已经明确表示，在针对鲍威尔的刑事调查结束之前，他将反对 确认任何美联储提名人，而参议院多数党领袖图恩也承认，没有蒂利斯的支持，相关程序难以推进。 这种政治僵局可能导致一个意外结果：鲍威尔可能以临时主席的身份在五月之后继续留任，这种情况虽 然尴尬，但反而为政府解决针对鲍威尔的调查、并最终在几周后确认沃什的提名提供了充分的政治动 力。 在货币政策展望方面，摩根大通维持其既有判断，即美联储将在今年剩余时间内保持利率不变。报告强 ...

全球贵金属市场在上周五经历了一场历史性的暴跌，白银单日重挫近30%，黄金也大幅回撤。 尽管跌幅惊人，但多家华尔街投行分析师认为，这是一场由过度拥挤的持仓和保证金上调引发的技术性出清，而非基本面逻辑的根本性逆转。 市场数据显示，iShares Silver Trust上周五下跌28.5%至75.44美元，创下有史以来最大单日跌幅；SPDR Gold Shares下跌10.3%至444.95美元。 据高盛交易部门观察， 白银的波动率飙升至仅在全球金融危机最严重时期和新冠疫情封锁期间才出现过的极端水平，其ETF名义交易量超过320亿美元。 此次暴跌的直接导火索是芝加哥商品交易所在周五收盘前宣布上调保证金要求，这迫使大量杠杆资金在周末前平仓。 同时，随着美国总统特朗普提名沃什为下 一任美联储主席，美元的反弹也对金属价格构成了压力。 尽管价格出现剧烈修正，但机构分析师并未恐慌。Yardeni Research指出，主要ETF的交易量并未显示出恐慌性抛售的迹象。摩根大通则重申了对黄金中期走 势的坚定看涨立场， 认为在实物资产跑赢纸面资产的机制下，黄金仍是有效的投资组合对冲工具。 摩根大通：坚定看多黄金，对白银更谨慎 由摩 ...

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley has lowered the target price for American Express from $385 to $375 [1]

Market Overview - Gold and silver experienced significant declines, with spot gold falling as much as 6.3% and silver plunging up to 11.9% during Asian trading hours on Monday [1] - The previous session saw the steepest intraday loss on record for silver, indicating extreme volatility in the precious metals market [1] Investor Sentiment - Robert Gottlieb, a former precious metals trader, noted that market liquidity is constrained due to a reluctance to take further risks, suggesting that the market is currently crowded with trades [2] - The surge in precious metals prices was driven by geopolitical concerns, currency debasement, and the Federal Reserve's independence, with significant buying from Chinese speculators contributing to the rally [2] Chinese Market Dynamics - The behavior of Chinese investors in buying dips will be crucial in determining market direction following the recent selloff [3] - Despite a fall in the Shanghai benchmark price, it continues to trade at a premium over international prices, with increased retail demand expected ahead of the Lunar New Year [3][4] Price Movements and Economic Factors - The selloff was triggered by the nomination of Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve, which strengthened the dollar and negatively impacted gold and silver prices [5] - Precious metals were already facing extreme volatility, with a record wave of call option purchases reinforcing upward price momentum [6] Supply and Demand Factors - In the silver market, hot money inflows in China have led to domestic supply tightness, but this may ease as investment demand diminishes due to the recent price rout [7] - As of 12:15 p.m. Singapore time, gold was priced at $4,671.53 per ounce, down 4.6%, while silver declined to $78.86, a drop of 7.4% [8]

Core Insights - Gold and silver experienced significant price fluctuations, with gold falling as much as 6.3% and silver dropping to around $75 an ounce after reaching record highs [1][2] - The recent selloff was triggered by the nomination of Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve, which strengthened the dollar and negatively impacted precious metals [3] - A crowded trade in precious metals, driven by geopolitical concerns and speculative buying, has led to extreme volatility and risk in the market [2][4] Price Movements - As of 9:21 a.m. Singapore time, gold was priced at $4,680.76 an ounce, down 4.4%, while silver declined 2.2% to $83.2965 [5] - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.1% after a previous gain of 0.9%, indicating a stronger dollar [5] Market Dynamics - The surge in precious metal prices over the past year was fueled by concerns over geopolitical instability and currency debasement, with significant buying from Chinese speculators [2] - The market's volatility was exacerbated by a record wave of call option purchases, which created upward price momentum as sellers hedged their positions [4]

Group 1 - JPMorgan Chase & Co. increased its stake in Xinyi Solar Holdings Limited (00968.HK) by acquiring 21,234,012 shares at an average price of HKD 3.4614 per share, totaling approximately HKD 73.5 million [1] - Following this acquisition, JPMorgan's total holdings in Xinyi Solar rose to 651,397,530 shares, increasing its ownership percentage from 6.88% to 7.12% [1]

Market Dynamics - The gold market experienced a dramatic drop, with prices plunging nearly $500 from a peak of $5,596 to around $5,100 before rebounding above $5,300, indicating extreme volatility and investor anxiety [1] - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates was expected, but Chairman Powell's comments sparked a significant market reaction, with gold prices surpassing $5,500 and silver reaching $119, reflecting a disconnect between market sentiment and Fed communication [3][4] - Geopolitical risks have amplified gold's safe-haven appeal, contributing to a 25% increase in gold prices and over 55% for silver in the past year, indicating a shift beyond typical commodity bull markets [6] Investment Sentiment - Investors are increasingly focused on potential changes in the Federal Reserve's leadership by May 2026, with expectations that a more dovish successor could drive further investment in precious metals [4] - Current market conditions suggest that gold is becoming a key asset in portfolios, potentially replacing traditional bonds as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation, with projections indicating that a rise in gold allocation could push prices to $8,000-$8,500 [7] Price Predictions - Major financial institutions like UBS have raised their gold price targets for 2026 to $6,200, with bullish scenarios suggesting prices could reach $7,200, further fueling market optimism [9] - However, analysts warn of market instability, citing extreme price fluctuations and the potential for a significant correction due to overcrowded positions among momentum traders [9][11] Technical Observations - The recent flash crash highlighted the market's fragility, as trading platforms experienced outages due to overwhelming order volumes during price swings, underscoring the concentrated nature of market participation [11] - The copper market shows contrasting dynamics, with strong demand driven by energy transition and electric vehicle adoption, yet high inventories challenge the bullish narrative [12] - In the aluminum market, supply constraints from China's production limits and shifting demand towards green technologies suggest a positive medium-term outlook, although short-term price sustainability remains debated [13] Overall Market Sentiment - The current market environment is characterized by significant divergence, with bullish forecasts from major banks juxtaposed against warnings of excessive positioning and volatility risks [13] - The Federal Reserve's efforts to maintain policy credibility have not fully reassured the market, and any new geopolitical developments could trigger rapid price movements [13]