智通财经APP获悉，由于对美国政府不断膨胀的债务和赤字的担忧，交易员纷纷押注长期美债收益率将 飙升，而总统唐纳德·特朗普的减税法案更是让这一局面变得岌岌可危。黯淡的经济前景刺激了美债期 权的对冲活动，投资者试图在年底前提高长期债券的收益率。最新一轮的下行押注与华尔街的情绪相呼 应，高盛、摩根大通等大行的策略师们纷纷上调对收益率的预测。 交易员们下了一些较大的赌注，押注10年期美债收益率将试探5%。芝商所(CME)周一的持仓量数据证 实，有人豪赌10年期美债收益率在未来几周内将升至5%，这意味着1100万美元的高额溢价将面临新风 险。在过去一周，期权交易流中出现了对冲收益率上升的趋势，所谓的期权偏度反映了这一点，该指标 显示溢价不断上升，表明债券市场正在遭遇抛售。 摩根大通的策略师杰伊·巴里、贾森·亨特等人在一份报告中写道："鉴于需求格局发生结构性转变之际， 贸易和货币政策存在不确定性，近期风险倾向于空头陡化。" 周一，30年期美债收益率短暂突破5%，达到2023年11月以来的最高水平，随后回吐部分跌幅。此前， 穆迪将美国信用评级从Aaa下调至Aa1，引发债券抛售潮。评级下调在周一早盘交易中推动各期限美债 收益 ...

回顾行情，今年4月2日，美国总统特朗普宣布对多个贸易伙伴实施大规模"对等"关税，股市迅速下跌，标 普500指数一度逼近熊市边缘。然而，随着关税政策的推迟或缓和，市场迅速反弹。到4月8日，标普500从 2月高点回落幅度达19.1%，但这一天也成为阶段性底部，随后股市强势回升，截至上周，道琼斯工业平均 指数和标普500均重新转为年内正增长。 摩根大通首席执行官戴蒙昨日发出警告，称尽管上月的关税风波一度引发市场震荡，但市场反弹之快、幅 度之大，显示出投资者已陷入"极度自满"的状态，而多位市场策略师对此表示认同。 在周一摩根大通投资者日活动上，戴蒙指出："市场先跌了10%，又涨了10%，我认为这显示出了一种不寻 常的自满情绪。"他担心市场已对潜在风险失去警觉。 这一判断得到了技术分析师的支持。智通财经APP获悉，BTIG首席市场技术分析师Jonathan Krinsky在周二 的报告中指出，期权市场中被广泛关注的认沽/认购比率的五日移动平均值已接近五年来的低点，这表明 投资者越来越偏好认购期权，预期市场将持续上涨。 Krinsky写道："虽然目前市场上升趋势强劲，狭窄的波动区间和极端的认沽/认购比率意味着市场过于乐 ...

Group 1 - JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon remains critical of Bitcoin, citing concerns over leverage and misuse in illegal activities [1][2] - Despite his personal views, JPMorgan will allow clients to buy Bitcoin and will include it in client statements, but will not provide custody services [2] - Bitcoin is currently near its all-time high of $106,734.51, which it reached last year [3] Group 2 - Dimon has previously described Bitcoin as "worthless" and compared it to "fools gold," indicating a long-standing skepticism towards the cryptocurrency [4] - JPMorgan Chase shares have increased over 10%, outperforming the S&P 500, which has remained flat for the year [4] - The SEC approved the first Bitcoin exchange-traded fund in January 2024, leading to increased accessibility of Bitcoin for institutional and retail investors [5] Group 3 - The largest Bitcoin funds by assets under management include iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF, Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin ETF, and Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF [7]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - JPMorgan Chase reported record revenue for the seventh consecutive year, with managed revenue of $180.6 billion and net income of $58.5 billion in 2024, reflecting a return on tangible common equity of 20% [13][14] - The company increased its quarterly common dividend from $1.5 per share to $1.15 in Q1 and again to $1.25 in Q3 of 2024 [13] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The firm extended credit and raised capital totaling $2.8 trillion for consumer and institutional clients globally [14] - JPMorgan Chase moved over $10 trillion daily in more than 20 currencies across 60 countries and safeguarded over $35 trillion in assets [14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company grew market share in several business segments and made significant investments in products, people, and technology [14] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The management emphasized the importance of running a great company and the long-term health of America and the democratic world as foundational to the firm's success [12][13] - The company aims to drive organic growth across all parts of the business while remaining nimble to address significant competition and geopolitical risks [15][16] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the challenges posed by geopolitical tensions, inflation, interest rates, and trade wars, while expressing confidence in the company's ability to remain healthy under various scenarios [17][18] - The firm is committed to educating clients and countries about critical economic issues through extensive research conducted by over 700 senior analysts [18] Other Important Information - The company has a strong focus on responsible corporate citizenship and engages with policymakers to protect long-term interests [50] - Management highlighted the importance of employee well-being and has significantly increased minimum pay over the last seven years [55] Q&A Session Summary Question: How does JPMorgan view its approach to financing energy in light of its commitment to political neutrality and fiduciary duty? - JPMorgan is one of the largest financers of both traditional and green energy, supporting energy production from all sources while focusing on long-term shareholder value [41] Question: What is the company's stance on political contributions? - The firm engages with policymakers to advance long-term interests and prohibits the use of corporate funds for political contributions to candidates or parties [50][51] Question: How does the company plan to address employee compensation concerns? - Management emphasized the importance of building a great company for employees and communities, offering competitive compensation and benefits [54][55] Question: How does JPMorgan plan to handle potential margin compression in a lower interest rate environment? - The firm prepares for a range of outcomes regarding interest rates and believes it is well-positioned to handle various scenarios [59] Question: Will there be a consideration for a stock split or stock dividend? - The board considers stock splits and dividends at every meeting and will communicate any decisions made [61] Question: How does JPMorgan intend to incorporate climate science into its investment decisions? - The company has frameworks to assess environmental and social risks and engages with clients to make informed business decisions [64] Question: What is the company's assessment of increasing dividends and economic growth? - JPMorgan has increased dividends multiple times and will continue to recommend increases as profitability grows [70]

智通财经5月20日电，摩根大通CEO戴蒙表示，美国经济衰退的可能性为50%。 ...

Core Insights - JPMorgan's CEO Jamie Dimon highlighted the ongoing impact of Trump's tariffs, indicating that the full effects are not yet understood and could lead to economic challenges and higher inflation [1] - Economic uncertainty is expected to negatively affect JPMorgan's investment banking business, with a projected decline in IB fees by mid-teens percentage year-over-year [2] - Despite challenges, JPMorgan's markets revenues are anticipated to grow in the mid-to-high single-digits range due to increased market volatility and client activity [3] Economic Outlook - CFO Jeremy Barnum mentioned that the evolving tariff environment and geopolitical tensions contribute to economic uncertainty, but he expects net interest income (NII) to increase by $1 billion this year, maintaining the NII outlook at $94.5 billion, which is nearly a 2% increase year-over-year [4] - Competitors Bank of America and Wells Fargo also expect NII growth, with Bank of America projecting a 6-7% increase and Wells Fargo anticipating a 1-3% rise compared to 2024 levels [5] Operational Insights - JPMorgan reiterated its non-interest expense outlook for 2025 at $95 billion and emphasized the role of artificial intelligence in enhancing efficiency, with a technology budget of $18 billion for the year, reflecting a 6% increase from the previous year [6] - The Consumer and Community Banking segment expects a 10% reduction in headcount over the next five years, while maintaining a card net charge-off (NCO) rate of approximately 3.6% [7] Strategic Initiatives - Dimon announced that JPMorgan will offer Bitcoin ownership to clients but will not hold it in custody, expressing skepticism about Bitcoin due to its association with illegal activities [8] - The company remains open to acquisitions but is cautious about integration challenges, having been quiet on buyouts since acquiring assets from First Republic Bank in May 2023 [9] Performance Metrics - Over the past year, JPMorgan's shares have increased by 32.8%, outperforming the industry growth of 27% [10]

Moody's has downgraded a few major banks' long-term credit and deposit ratings, after it lowered the U.S. sovereign credit ratings.Major banks, including JPMorgan (JPM) , Bank of America (BAC) , and Wells Fargo (WFC) , had their long-term deposit ratings downgraded by Moody’s from Aa1 to Aa2. The rating agency also downgraded to Aa2 from Aa1 the long-term senior unsecured debt ratings and issuer ratings for certain rated subsidiaries and branches of BAC and The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation (BK) . Add ...

Global Economic Research 16 May 2025 Global Data Watch There and back again Our economic forecasts are adjusting to yet another significant shift in US policy. The US lowered tariffs on China this week to a level close to 40%, a material step back from the 145% rate. This action lowered the effective US tariff rate by nearly 10%-pts. However, at roughly 14%, the rate is still a spike from 3.5% at the beginning of this year (Figure 1). We still see this shock weighing on the outlook, but the détente—if it st ...

摩根大通表示，随着美国失去其最后一个最高信用评级、债券收益率上升，高等级公司债券可能会变得对基金经理更 具吸引力。上周五，穆迪下调了美国的信用评级，加入了此前已将美国评为非AAA最高评级的惠誉和标普的行列。穆 迪表示，下调评级的原因是对债务和财政赤字迅速膨胀的担忧，这将损害美国作为全球资本目的地的地位，并推高借 贷成本。 穆迪下调美国信用评级的原因 债务和财政赤字的膨胀 债券收益率上升 摩根大通策略师EricBeinstein和NathanielRosenbaum等人在周一的一份报告中指出，随着美国信用评级的下调和债券收 益率的上升，高等级公司债券可能会变得更具吸引力。高等级公司债券通常具有较高的信用评级和相对稳定的收益， 这使其在市场不确定性增加的情况下，成为投资者的避险选择。 投资者对国债估值的疑问 投资者对此次降级将在未来几天乃至中期内如何影响国债估值抱有疑问。在短期内，鉴于在需求出现结构性变化的背 景下贸易和货币政策方面存在不确定性，风险偏向于收益率曲线"熊市陡化"。这意味着短期利率可能上升，而长期利 率可能保持稳定或下降，导致收益率曲线变得更加陡峭。 市场展望与风险评估 短期市场波动 在短期内，美国 ...

摩根大通美债客户调查显示，截至5月19日当周，空头和多头占比均上升2个百分点，中性下降4个百分 点。所有客户调查显示，空头占比创2月10日以来的新高。 ...