Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Views - In Q3 2025, the company's sales revenue experienced a mid-single-digit decline year-on-year, with a slowdown compared to the first half of the year. However, e-commerce sales recorded a high single-digit growth. The discount rate has deepened compared to the previous period, and the inventory-to-sales ratio has increased to 5-6 months due to holiday and promotional stocking. The fourth quarter is expected to see a concentrated release of new products [3][4][12] - The company has a healthy operational foundation and potential for brand growth acceleration through future marketing efforts. The profit forecast for 2025-2027 is estimated at 2.512 billion, 2.825 billion, and 3.043 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -16.6%, +12.5%, and +7.7% [3][13] Summary by Sections Retail Performance - As of September 30, 2025, the company's retail revenue (excluding Li Ning YOUNG) recorded a mid-single-digit decline year-on-year. Offline channels (including retail and wholesale) saw a high single-digit decline, while e-commerce virtual store business achieved high single-digit growth [2][3] Store Count - As of September 30, 2025, the total number of sales points in China (excluding Li Ning YOUNG) was 6,132, a net increase of 33 from the previous quarter. The retail business saw a net decrease of 46 stores, while the wholesale business had a net increase of 61 stores. Li Ning YOUNG had 1,480 sales points, with a net increase of 45 from the previous quarter [2] Product Launches - The fourth quarter is expected to see a concentrated release of new products, including new technology fabric "super water-repellent" running shoes and various iterations of basketball and outdoor products [5][6][12] Financial Forecast - The company’s revenue for 2025 is projected to be 29.34 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.3%. The net profit for 2025 is expected to be 2.512 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 16.6% compared to the previous year [14][18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Li Ning [3][9] Core Insights - Li Ning's Q3 2025 revenue showed a marginal decline, with e-commerce and children's apparel performing relatively better. The overall revenue decreased in the mid-single digits year-on-year, while online sales grew in the high single digits, and offline sales declined in the high single digits [9] - The company anticipates maintaining its performance guidance for 2025, aiming for flat revenue and a high single-digit net profit margin despite facing some pressures. Upcoming marketing initiatives related to the 2026 Milan Winter Olympics and technology releases are expected to enhance brand competitiveness [9] Financial Summary - Revenue projections (in billion RMB): - 2023: 27.6 - 2024: 28.7 - 2025E: 28.8 - 2026E: 30.1 - 2027E: 31.2 - Year-on-year growth rates: - 2023: 7% - 2024: 4% - 2025: 0% - 2026: 4% - 2027: 4% [8] - Net profit projections (in billion RMB): - 2023: 3.19 - 2024: 3.01 - 2025E: 2.48 - 2026E: 2.64 - 2027E: 2.78 - Year-on-year growth rates for net profit: - 2023: -22% - 2024: -5% - 2025: -18% - 2026: 6% - 2027: 5% [8] Operational Insights - The discount rate has deepened slightly due to increased inventory turnover, with expectations to return to a 4-5 month inventory turnover by year-end. The overall inventory turnover ratio is currently at 5-6 months [9] - The number of sales points (excluding Li Ning YOUNG) increased to 6,132, with a net addition of 33 points in the current year. The company plans to close 10-20 direct stores while increasing wholesale points by 50 [9]

Core Viewpoint - Li Ning's Q3 2025 operational performance shows a mixed picture with offline sales declining while e-commerce continues to grow robustly, indicating a shift in consumer purchasing behavior [1][2]. Group 1: Sales Performance - In Q3 2025, Li Ning's overall revenue decreased by a high single-digit percentage year-on-year, with offline channel sales experiencing a high single-digit decline and e-commerce sales growing by a high single-digit percentage [1]. - The wholesale channel saw a significant decline in revenue, with a high single-digit percentage drop year-on-year, while the number of wholesale stores stood at 4,881 by the end of Q3 2025, reflecting a net increase of 61 stores since the beginning of the year [1]. - Direct sales revenue also fell by a mid-single-digit percentage year-on-year, with the total number of direct stores at 1,251, which is a net decrease of 46 stores since the start of the year [1]. Group 2: E-commerce and Young Segment - E-commerce revenue in Q3 2025 increased by a high single-digit percentage, showing an improvement in growth rate compared to the mid-single-digit percentage increase in Q2 [2]. - The children's clothing segment, Li Ning YOUNG, continued its rapid growth, with 1,480 stores by the end of Q3 2025, reflecting a net increase of 12 stores since the beginning of the year, and is expected to achieve double-digit growth in revenue [2]. Group 3: Inventory and Future Outlook - The inventory-to-sales ratio is projected to be between 5-6 at the end of Q3 2025, which is an increase from previous periods, driven by preparations for upcoming holidays and promotional events [2]. - For 2025, the company expects revenue to remain flat year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders is anticipated to decline by 22% [3]. - The company plans to leverage the upcoming Olympic events for marketing activities, which may lead to a new growth phase for the brand in the medium to long term [3]. Group 4: Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendation - The projected net profits for Li Ning from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 2.366 billion, 2.540 billion, and 2.759 billion yuan respectively, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 18 times for 2025, maintaining a "buy" rating [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Ning [5][3] Core Views - Li Ning's offline sales experienced significant fluctuations in Q3 2025, with a high single-digit percentage decline in offline channels, while e-commerce sales showed robust growth with a high single-digit percentage increase [1] - The children's clothing segment, Li Ning YOUNG, continued its rapid growth, with an estimated double-digit growth in revenue for Q3 2025, supported by the opening of 12 new stores [2] - The company expects its 2025 revenue to remain flat year-on-year, with a projected decline of 22% in net profit attributable to the parent company [2] - Li Ning is focusing on Olympic-themed marketing activities as the 2026 Milan Winter Olympics approaches, which may lead to a new development phase for the brand [2] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2025 is projected at 28,919 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 0.8% [4] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 2,366 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 21.5% [4] - The report forecasts earnings per share (EPS) to be 0.92 yuan for 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 18 times [4][3] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to decline to 8.7% in 2025 [12] Sales Performance - The report indicates that the wholesale channel saw a high single-digit percentage decline in sales, while the direct sales channel also experienced a medium single-digit percentage decline [9] - E-commerce sales grew at a high single-digit percentage, showing improvement compared to the previous quarter [9] - The inventory turnover ratio is expected to be between 5-6 at the end of Q3 2025, with a potential recovery to 4-5 by the end of the year [2]

Core Viewpoint - Adidas has become the "old fourth" in the Chinese market, ranking behind Nike, Anta, and Li Ning in market share after years of struggle [1][5]. Group 1: Market Position and Challenges - Adidas's market share in China has significantly declined from 15% in 2021 to 8.7% in 2024, while Nike's market share decreased from 18.1% to 16.2% [5]. - The Yeezy controversy, stemming from Kanye West's remarks, led to Adidas terminating its partnership, which accounted for 8% of its total revenue and 40% of its profits as of October 2022 [3][5]. - Domestic brands have gained traction, with Anta's market share increasing from 9.8% in 2021 to 10.5%, and Li Ning's from 9.3% to 9.4% [7]. Group 2: Strategic Changes and Initiatives - Adidas is in an expansion phase in China, with 95% of its products sold in the market being "made in China" and a focus on local design [8]. - The company's CEO, Bjørn Gulden, has increased the influence of the Chinese team and has made multiple visits to China to strengthen relationships [9][11]. - In Q2 2023, Adidas's revenue in the Greater China region grew by 11% to €798 million (approximately ¥6.65 billion), contrasting with Nike's 10% revenue decline in the same region [14][15]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Nike is also empowering its Chinese team, with its Greater China CEO holding additional global responsibilities [18]. - Domestic competitors like Anta are thriving, while some brands like Peak are facing challenges, including significant salary cuts due to losses [19]. - The competitive environment remains tough, with Adidas's path to recovery being fraught with difficulties [20].

Core Viewpoint - Adidas has become the "old fourth" in the Chinese market, ranking behind Nike, Anta, and Li Ning in market share after years of struggle [1][5]. Group 1: Market Position and Challenges - Adidas's market share in China has significantly declined from 15% in 2021 to 8.7% in 2024, while Nike's share decreased from 18.1% to 16.2% [5]. - The Yeezy controversy, resulting from the termination of the partnership with Kanye West, has been a major factor affecting Adidas's revenue, with estimates indicating that 8% of total revenue and 40% of profits were derived from Yeezy products before the partnership ended [3][5]. - Domestic brands have gained traction, with Anta's market share increasing from 9.8% in 2021 to 10.5% and Li Ning's from 9.3% to 9.4% [7]. Group 2: Strategic Changes and Recovery Efforts - Adidas is in a clear expansion phase in China, with 95% of products sold in the market being "made in China" and a focus on original designs [8]. - The company's CEO, Bjørn Gulden, has been actively engaging with Chinese stakeholders, visiting China multiple times to strengthen relationships [9][11]. - In Q2 2023, Adidas's revenue in the Greater China region grew by 11% year-on-year to €798 million (approximately ¥6.65 billion), contrasting with Nike's revenue decline of 10% to $1.512 billion (approximately ¥10.78 billion) [14][15]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Nike is also empowering its Chinese team, with its Greater China CEO holding additional global responsibilities, indicating a competitive response to Adidas's strategies [18]. - Domestic competitors like Anta are thriving, while some brands like Peak are facing challenges, including significant salary cuts due to losses [19].

Core Viewpoint - The collaboration between the Chinese Olympic Committee and Li Ning brand showcases the 2026 Milan Winter Olympics Chinese sports delegation's award attire, integrating top-tier sports technology with Eastern aesthetics to present the strength and style of Chinese athletes to the world [1] Design and Aesthetics - The award attire features red and white as the primary colors, with "Chinese Red" highlighting cultural elements and a design that outlines a five-pointed star; "Snow Mountain White" draws inspiration from winter sports scenes and incorporates Eastern aesthetic concepts of blank space [3] - Traditional auspicious patterns, such as the "Double Victory Pattern," are used in the design, symbolizing victory and good fortune, and are complemented by the "Double Victory Snowflake Pattern" on various parts of the attire [5] Technological Innovations - Li Ning brand has equipped the award attire with advanced sports technology, achieving significant breakthroughs in "thermal locking, moisture permeability, and protection" through material and structural innovations [8] - The collaboration with the National Space Administration has led to the development of a dynamic thermal insulation technology platform, enhancing thermal retention by 44% and moisture permeability by 14% [8] Functional Features - The attire includes a special inner structure with water-repellent goose down for better insulation and moisture management, while the protective layer can withstand heavy rain, providing multiple protective functions [10] - Approximately 45% of the attire is made from recycled nylon and polyester, promoting an environmentally friendly approach [10] Footwear Design - The award shoes are designed based on Li Ning's classic "Liejun" series, featuring a color scheme that matches the award attire and incorporating advanced technologies for comfort and safety on winter surfaces [12] Event Highlights - A drone show at the event illustrated the lines of the award attire, conveying best wishes for the Chinese sports delegation at the 2026 Milan Winter Olympics [13] Company Commitment - Li Ning, the founder and chairman of the brand, emphasized the importance of the award attire in representing the pinnacle of achievement and the spirit of Chinese athletes, committing to continuous innovation in professional sports technology to support the Chinese sports delegation [15]

每经AI快讯，10月24日，香港交易所信息显示，贝莱德在李宁H股的持股比例于10月20日从5.10%降至 4.38%。 ...

Core Insights - Li Ning reported a mid-single-digit decline in overall retail sales across its platform for the third quarter ending September 30, 2025 [1] - Offline channels, including retail and wholesale, experienced a high-single-digit decline, while e-commerce virtual store sales recorded a high-single-digit growth [1] Retail Performance - As of September 30, 2025, the total number of Li Ning sales points in China reached 6,132, with a net increase of 33 points compared to the previous quarter [1] - The retail business saw a net decrease of 46 points, while the wholesale business experienced a net increase of 61 points [1] YOUNG Brand Performance - As of September 30, 2025, the total number of Li Ning YOUNG sales points in China was 1,480, reflecting a net increase of 45 points from the previous quarter [1]

Core Viewpoint - Li Ning (02331.HK) reported a year-on-year decline in retail sales for the third quarter ending September 30, 2025, with offline channels experiencing significant drops while e-commerce showed strong growth [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - Overall retail sales (excluding Li Ning YOUNG) recorded a mid-single-digit decline year-on-year [1] - Offline channels, including retail and wholesale, experienced a high-single-digit decline [1] - Directly operated retail channels saw a mid-single-digit decline [1] - Wholesale channels (franchise dealers) recorded a high-single-digit decline [1] Group 2: E-commerce Performance - E-commerce virtual store business achieved a high-single-digit growth [1]