Presentation Christopher CasoWolfe Research, LLC Okay. We're back. So thanks for joining us, everyone, at Wolfe's Auto, Auto Tech and Semiconductor Conference. I'm Chris Caso, Wolfe's semiconductor analyst. So thanks for joining us. We're pleased to have with us this morning, Micron. From Micron, we've got Mark Murphy, the CFO; and Satya Kumar, Head of Investor Relations for Micron. Gentlemen, thanks for joining us today. Good to have you as usual. Mark MurphyExecutive VP & CFO Chris, thank you for havin ...

Core Viewpoint - The memory-chip maker has commenced high-volume production of its HBM4 and has started shipping to customers, as stated by CFO Mark Murphy [1] Group 1 - The company is actively producing HBM4 memory chips in large quantities [1] - Shipments of HBM4 to customers have already begun [1]

Core Viewpoint - The technology sector, particularly Micron Technology, is highlighted as having significant potential for explosive returns, especially in the context of the AI revolution [1]. Group 1: Micron Technology Performance - Micron's stock has appreciated approximately 372% since February 10, 2021, translating to a $100 investment growing to $472, which represents a 36.3% annualized return compared to the stock market's average of 8% to 10% [2]. - The stock was at a near-term peak five years ago but experienced a crash in 2022 due to the end of the pandemic, rising interest rates, and a slowdown in key markets [3]. Group 2: AI Impact and Market Projections - The AI revolution has enabled Micron to not only recover but exceed previous stock highs, with high-bandwidth memory (HBM) demand projected to grow to $100 billion by 2028, surpassing the entire DRAM industry's size five years ago [4]. - HBM production requires three to four times the equipment compared to traditional DRAM, leading to a persistent supply shortage and significant demand [4]. - Analysts predict DRAM prices will increase over 90% in Q1 2026, with an additional 20% increase expected in Q2 [5]. Group 3: Future Earnings and Market Outlook - There is uncertainty regarding whether the memory industry will face a severe bust after the current boom or if it has entered a new era of sustainable prices and profits [6]. - Analysts forecast Micron to earn an average of $33.51 in 2026 and $42.97 in 2027, totaling $76.50 in earnings, which is nearly equivalent to Micron's stock price of around $90 in February 2021 [6].

Industry Overview - The memory chip market is experiencing a significant boom, primarily driven by the increasing demand from AI, which requires substantial amounts of fast and reliable memory for complex models [1] - HBM DRAM is in high demand for its ultra-fast speeds in GPUs and AI accelerators, while NAND flash offers large, cost-effective storage solutions [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The demand for advanced memory is surpassing supply, resulting in widespread shortages and creating a seller's market [2] - Companies and cloud providers are competing to secure the necessary memory to support sophisticated AI workloads [2] Company Performance - Semiconductor memory specialists like Micron and SanDisk have seen substantial gains, with their shares increasing significantly over the past year due to soaring sales [3] - Micron's shares have risen by 300% in the past year, indicating a strong up cycle, which is distinct from previous cycles due to the AI-driven demand [5] Micron's Market Position - Micron has reported that all its HBM is fully booked through 2026, reflecting the intense demand from AI data centers [6] - The demand-supply imbalance has led to significant price increases in the memory market [6] Financial Performance - In its fiscal first quarter, Micron reported revenue of $13.64 billion, exceeding estimates by $760 million, with adjusted EPS of $4.78, surpassing expectations by $0.82 [7] - For the fiscal second quarter, Micron guided for revenue of $18.7 billion and adjusted EPS of $8.42, significantly above the Street's expectations of $14.23 billion and $4.49, respectively [7]

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank has a positive outlook on Micron Technology, raising its price target from $300 to $500 per share, citing favorable supply and demand dynamics in the memory market [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Projections - Deutsche Bank increased its earnings per share estimate for Micron for the calendar year 2026 to $46.50, with a price target set at approximately 11 times that figure, reflecting tight supply/demand dynamics and improved pricing [2]. - The target multiple is above Micron's 5-year median NTM P/E of around 10x, indicating confidence in the company's position as a leading memory vendor amid unprecedented market conditions [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The firm is optimistic about Micron's potential to benefit from growth in High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) and improved memory market conditions, which are expected to drive strong revenue and earnings per share growth [3]. - The current market environment is viewed as favorable for Micron in the upcoming quarters, suggesting a positive trajectory for the company [2]. Group 3: Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include increased supply from competitors, deterioration in memory pricing, changes in memory content per application, and advancements by Chinese competitors [3].

Micron stock (NASDAQ: MU) jumped about 5-6% on Wednesday after management moved to calm jitters around its next-generation highbandwidth memory. The development comes amid a fresh wave of bullish ana... ...

Summary of Semiconductor Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the global semiconductor industry, specifically discussing the WSTS report for December 2025, which tracks sales, units, and average selling prices (ASPs) across the semiconductor sector [2][27]. Key Financial Metrics - **2025 Semiconductor Sales**: Grew by 26% year-over-year, reaching approximately $792 billion, following a 20% increase in 2024 [3][28]. - **December 2025 Sales Growth**: Total semiconductor sales increased by 41.3% year-over-year, with memory sales growing by 67.6% year-over-year [3][29]. - **Monthly Sales Performance**: December sales rose by 4.8% month-over-month, significantly above the historical average of 2.2% [4][38]. Product Category Performance - **Logic Sales**: Increased by 40% year-over-year, leading the growth among product categories [28][32]. - **Memory Sales**: Grew by 35% year-over-year, with a notable 67.6% increase in December alone [3][29]. - **Analog Standard Linear**: Sales rose by 17%, while Discretes and Microcontroller Units (MCUs) saw declines of 1% each [28][32]. - **Monthly Performance by Product Group**: - Discretes: 18.3% growth vs. typical 14.5% - Optoelectronics: 14.2% vs. typical -0.1% - Logic: 3.7% vs. typical -1.1% - MCU: 13.8% vs. typical 11.6% [5][40]. Geographic Sales Insights - **Year-over-Year Sales Growth by Region**: - Americas: Up 32.5% - Europe: Up 23.3% - China: Up 40.3% - Asia Pacific/All Other: Up 77.6% - Japan: Down 11.3% [45]. - **Month-over-Month Sales Growth**: - Americas: Up 10.5% - China: Up 5.8% - Europe: Up 4.7% - Japan: Flattish at -0.7% - Asia Pacific/All Other: Down 1.2% [46]. Unit Shipments and ASPs - **Total Unit Shipments**: Increased by 9.6% month-over-month, with ASPs down by 4.4% [52]. - **Year-over-Year Shipment Growth**: Increased by 4.1%, with notable increases in Discretes, Optoelectronics, and Logic [53]. - **ASP Changes**: - ASPs increased for Discretes (6.3%), Optoelectronics (7.3%), and NAND (11.5%). - ASPs decreased for Sensors & Actuators (-4.6%) and Logic (-3.6%) [55][56]. Investment Implications - **ADI (Analog Devices)**: Rated Market-Perform with a target price of $270.00, executing well but shares considered expensive [11]. - **AMD (Advanced Micro Devices)**: Rated Market-Perform with a target price of $235.00, driven by high AI expectations and a new deal with OpenAI [11]. - **AVGO (Broadcom)**: Rated Outperform with a target price of $475.00, benefiting from a strong AI trajectory [11]. - **NVDA (NVIDIA)**: Rated Outperform with a target price of $275.00, with significant opportunities in the datacenter market [13]. - **QCOM (Qualcomm)**: Rated Outperform with a target price of $175.00, despite memory headwinds, shares are considered cheap [14]. Additional Insights - The semiconductor industry is experiencing robust growth driven by various product categories, particularly logic and memory, with significant regional disparities in performance. - The overall market sentiment remains positive, with several companies positioned for growth amid ongoing technological advancements and demand for semiconductors.

Let me cut to the chase. Micron Technology (NASDAQ: MU ) is still a great Strong Buy. The company's earnings report confirms that since my last coverage of the stock. And the company isKennedy is a GARP-themed investor with a bias towards companies with aggressive growth prospects, en route to becoming highly profitable in 1-2 years.His investment philosophy emphasizes long-term discipline, consistent alpha, and a pinch of salt (risk).He writes to empower the underprivileged and improve financial literacy.T ...

Core Viewpoint - Micron Technology (NASDAQ: MU) is identified as a strong buy, supported by the company's recent earnings report which confirms its growth potential [1]. Company Summary - The company is positioned for aggressive growth and is expected to become highly profitable within 1-2 years [1]. - The investment philosophy surrounding Micron emphasizes long-term discipline and consistent alpha generation, indicating a focus on sustainable growth [1].

Activist investor Elliott Management has built a stake in the London Stock Exchange Group and is engaging with the financial data and analytics group to improve its performance, a person familiar with... ...