千亿计划背后，拼多多增长的结构性革新。 特朗普发动的关税贸易战仍在进行。美国对中国出口商品加征的 "对等关税"，已经由 34% 连续增加 至 125%，总计叠加关税累计高达 145%，且 800 美元以下小包裹免税政策也将于 5 月 2 日起取消。 这种快速且剧烈的关税政策变动，同时给中美两国带来冲击。美国一直以来都是中国制造业的重要出 口市场，但在充满了高度不确定性的当下，供给侧短期转向国内市场成了必然选择，诸多内需刺激政 策正在讨论中。 但在长期出口导向型经济驱动下，中国成为 " 世界工厂 " 的同时，也形成了制造业 "以规模效益为核 心、以成本控制为优势" 的生产体系。这种模式虽快速占领了国际中低端市场，却也带来了矛盾。 其一，企业长期陷于 OEM 代工体系的路径依赖，品牌溢价与技术研发能力薄弱。这些工厂在很长一 段时间里，只要找到更便宜的出货渠道就能保证业绩的增长，既不缺订单也不需要花费精力创新，自 然没有升级产线、产品的动力。 但随着市场竞争逐渐激烈，因商品同质化而加剧的价格竞争使厂家的利润被不断摊薄，产品研发和品 牌建设难以开展，产品也缺少升级创新，产能过剩的同时，消费者依然有大量需求没有被满足。 ...

但在长期出口导向型经济驱动下，中国成为 " 世界工厂 " 的同时，也形成了制造业 "以规模效益为核 心、以成本控制为优势" 的生产体系。这种模式虽快速占领了国际中低端市场，却也带来了矛盾。 其一，企业长期陷于 OEM 代工体系的路径依赖，品牌溢价与技术研发能力薄弱。这些工厂在很长一 段时间里，只要找到更便宜的出货渠道就能保证业绩的增长，既不缺订单也不需要花费精力创新，自 然没有升级产线、产品的动力。 但随着市场竞争逐渐激烈，因商品同质化而加剧的价格竞争使厂家的利润被不断摊薄，产品研发和品 牌建设难以开展，产品也缺少升级创新，产能过剩的同时，消费者依然有大量需求没有被满足。 千亿计划背后，拼多多增长的结构性革新。 特朗普发动的关税贸易战仍在进行。美国对中国出口商品加征的 "对等关税"，已经由 34% 连续增加 至 125%，总计叠加关税累计高达 145%，且 800 美元以下小包裹免税政策也将于 5 月 2 日起取消。 这种快速且剧烈的关税政策变动，同时给中美两国带来冲击。美国一直以来都是中国制造业的重要出 口市场，但在充满了高度不确定性的当下，供给侧短期转向国内市场成了必然选择，诸多内需刺激政 策正在讨论中。 ...

机构指出，多方增量资金明确，稳市资金更加积极，下方空间有限。 【财经日历】 2025全球机器学习技术大会。 | 3 | 盘前必读 | | 外盘怎么样 // | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 道琼斯工业指数 | | 39142.23 | -527.16 | -1.33% | | 纳斯达克指数 | | 16286.45 c | -20.71 | -0.13% | 美股周四涨跌不一，投资者在假期前保持谨慎，同时关注贸易谈判进展与利率前景。 截至当天收盘，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌527.16点，报39142.23点，跌幅1.33%；标准普尔500指数上涨7.00点，报5282.70点，涨幅0.13%；纳斯达克综合指 数下跌20.71点，报16286.45点，跌幅0.13%。本周三大指数均录得周线下跌，标普500指数累计下跌1.5%，纳指下跌2.6%，道指跌幅达2.7%。 大型科技股走势分化。谷歌母公司Alphabet下跌1.4%，此前联邦法官裁定谷歌在在线广告技术市场存在非法垄断行为。微软下跌逾1%；亚马逊、Meta与特 斯拉微 ...

Core Insights - China-founded e-commerce platforms Temu and Shein will raise prices for American consumers starting April 25, 2025, due to increased operating expenses from changes in global trade rules and tariffs [1][2][4] - The price adjustments are a direct response to President Trump's executive order that will close the "de minimis" customs exemption for low-value imports from China, effective May 2 [9][10] - Both companies have experienced significant growth in the U.S. market, shipping an average of one million packages daily, largely due to the previous duty-free entry for merchandise priced below $800 [7] Company Responses - Shein has stated that to maintain product quality while managing increased costs, it will adjust prices starting April 25, 2025, and has encouraged consumers to purchase items at current prices before the increase [2][4] - Temu has issued a similar notice regarding price hikes, although specific details on the price changes have not been disclosed [1][4] Market Context - The closure of the "de minimis" exemption is part of a broader strategy to address trade imbalances and combat issues related to the illicit flow of synthetic opioids into the U.S. [9][10] - Both Shein and Temu have faced scrutiny from U.S. lawmakers and organizations regarding environmental concerns and labor practices associated with fast fashion [11]

Core Viewpoint - The market sentiment towards Chinese stocks has soured due to trade tariff concerns, but recent exemptions by President Trump may create a more favorable environment for companies like Alibaba and PDD Holdings [1][2][5]. Group 1: Alibaba Group - Alibaba has seen a significant drop of 77% from its 52-week high, yet it outperformed the S&P 500 index with a net performance of 39.1% in the last quarter [6][7]. - Analysts from Citigroup have maintained a Buy rating for Alibaba, with a price target of $169 per share, indicating a potential upside of 48.1% from current levels [8]. - Alibaba's diversified business model, which includes cloud computing and data centers, positions it well to mitigate the impacts of tariffs [9]. Group 2: PDD Holdings - PDD Holdings is expected to benefit from the exemption on parcels valued at $800 or less, enhancing its competitive edge in the market [10]. - The company's market capitalization has grown to over $125 billion, and its stock is currently trading at 58% of its 52-week high, suggesting significant upside potential [11]. - Analysts have set a consensus price target of $169.91 for PDD, indicating a potential upside of 79.3% from current prices [12].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing shift of Chinese foreign trade enterprises towards domestic sales in response to increased tariffs on exports to the U.S., highlighting the collaborative efforts of major companies and government initiatives to support this transition [2][6][26]. Group 1: Major Companies' Initiatives - JD.com plans to invest 200 billion yuan in the next year to purchase export goods for domestic sales, aiming to help foreign trade enterprises quickly enter the domestic market [3][21][22]. - Hema has established a green channel for expedited processing, promising to simplify certification and reduce approval times for foreign trade products [15][20]. - Other platforms like Baidu, Meituan, and Douyin are also providing various forms of support, including AI technology, traffic assistance, and dedicated foreign trade sections [3][24][25]. Group 2: Retail and Supermarket Support - Traditional supermarkets such as Yonghui Supermarket and CR Vanguard have announced measures to facilitate the entry of quality foreign trade products into the domestic market, including opening "green channels" for rapid product listing [5][10][12]. - CR Vanguard has implemented four key measures, including opening direct sales channels in over 2,000 stores and developing private label products [13]. - Lianhua Supermarket is focusing on enhancing product quality by collaborating with returning overseas Chinese to find quality suppliers [13]. Group 3: Government and Association Support - The Chinese Commercial Association and other industry groups have issued a joint statement emphasizing the urgency of facilitating the transition of export goods to domestic sales [26]. - Local governments are also taking action, with initiatives like "Foreign Trade National Goods Selection" in Zhejiang and e-commerce platform matchmaking events in Anhui [28]. - The combined efforts of government, enterprises, and associations aim to alleviate the pressures faced by foreign trade companies and enhance their brand recognition in the domestic market [29].

Group 1 - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index experienced a preliminary decline of 2.6% [1] - Notable declines were observed in popular Chinese concept stocks, with Xiaoma Zhixing down 10%, XPeng and JD.com dropping over 5%, and Alibaba and Xiaomi ADRs falling over 4% [1] - Other companies such as Bilibili, Li Auto, NIO, New Oriental, and Baidu saw declines of at least 2%, while Tencent ADR, Pinduoduo, and Yum China dropped over 1% [1] Group 2 - The Chinese concept ETF YANG increased by 6.6%, while CQQQ and KWEB decreased by 2.1% and 2.8% respectively [1]

Core Points - Chinese online marketplace Temu and fast-fashion retailer Shein will increase prices on their products starting April 25, 2025, due to rising operating expenses linked to changes in global trade rules and tariffs [1][2] - Both companies have experienced rapid growth in the U.S. market, benefiting from the "de minimis" exemption that allowed low-value imports to enter the country duty-free [2] - An executive order signed by President Trump will close the trade loophole that permitted packages valued under $800 from China and Hong Kong to enter the U.S. without duties, with the order taking effect on May 2 [2][4] Company Impact - The price adjustments are a direct response to increased costs resulting from the new tariffs, which may affect the affordability of their products for consumers [1] - The closure of the trade loophole poses a significant challenge to the business models of both Temu and Shein, which have relied on low-cost imports to maintain competitive pricing [2][4] - The companies have communicated to customers the importance of purchasing before the price increases take effect, indicating a strategic move to boost sales in the short term [1]

Core Insights - Temu has quickly gained popularity, surpassing major apps like Instagram and WhatsApp in downloads within 17 days of its launch in the U.S. [1] - The company has significantly reduced its online advertising spending in the U.S. due to the impact of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration [1][4] - Temu's downloads have recently dropped by 62%, indicating a decline in user engagement and visibility [3] Advertising Strategy - Temu previously engaged in an aggressive online advertising campaign, utilizing TV ads and social media platforms to attract American consumers [2] - The effectiveness of this strategy led to Temu being the most downloaded free app in the U.S. for the past two years [3] - Recent changes in advertising have resulted in a noticeable decrease in ads for low-cost products, such as 50-cent eyebrow trimmers and $5 t-shirts [3] Impact of Tariffs - President Trump's tariffs have significantly affected Temu's business model, imposing a 145% tariff on packages shipped from China [4] - The elimination of the de minimis provision, which allowed duty-free entry for shipments under $800, is set to take effect on May 2 [4] - In response to increased operating expenses due to tariffs, Temu plans to raise prices on its products starting April 25, 2025 [5] Competitive Landscape - Amazon has launched a competing service called Amazon Haul, which features items priced under $20, primarily sourced from China [6] - Both Temu and its competitor Shein are adjusting their pricing strategies in light of the new tariffs [5]

Group 1: Market Impact - U.S.-listed Chinese companies such as Alibaba, PDD Holdings, Baidu, NIO, Li Auto, and XPeng are experiencing a decline in stock prices due to new tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, which can reach as high as 245% on certain imports [1] - The trade war has led to a selloff of heavily foreign-owned Chinese tech stocks, with e-commerce firms being the most affected by the increased tariffs on small parcels [6] Group 2: Economic Growth and Forecasts - China's GDP grew by 5.4% in the first quarter, surpassing the analyst estimate of 5.2%, driven by consumer subsidies and strong export shipments [2] - Economists from major international banks, including UBS and Goldman Sachs, have reduced their forecasts for China's 2025 growth to approximately 4% or lower, indicating a potential struggle to meet the growth target of around 5% [4] Group 3: Tariff Dynamics - The tariff war began with a 20% tariff imposed by Trump, escalating to 104% and then to 125% in response to China's retaliatory actions, which included raising its tariffs by 84% [5][6] - The tariffs are expected to lead companies to increase product prices to maintain margins, which could negatively impact demand for lower-priced offerings from Chinese companies [5]