Core Viewpoint - The cancellation of the "refund only" policy across major e-commerce platforms marks a significant shift in the industry, aimed at promoting fair competition and improving the operational environment for merchants [1][2][3]. Group 1: Policy Changes - Major e-commerce platforms including Pinduoduo, Taobao, Douyin, Kuaishou, and JD.com will fully cancel the "refund only" policy, which allows consumers to request refunds without returning goods [1]. - The "refund only" policy was first introduced by Pinduoduo in 2021 and has been adopted by other platforms over the years, but it will officially end in 2024 [1]. Group 2: Regulatory Background - The cancellation of the "refund only" policy was anticipated, as government authorities indicated a need to address the misuse of this policy, which has led to significant financial losses for merchants [2]. - Taobao and Tmall began relaxing the "refund only" rules as early as July of the previous year, initiating a trend towards reducing excessive competition in the industry [2]. Group 3: Industry Impact - The removal of the "refund only" policy is expected to help the e-commerce industry shift from price wars to healthier competition, ensuring fairer business practices for merchants and enhancing consumer engagement [3].

据了解，此前，淘宝天猫早在去年7月就率先松绑"仅退款"规则，打响行业"反内卷"，其后京东、快手 等电商平台相继进行规则优化。今年，淘宝持续优化营商环境，宣布治理AI假图、羊毛党和违规店 群，上线店铺真实体验分、佣金激励等相关举措，进一步促进行业回归良性竞争。 根据北京商报记者观察，目前电商平台售后一般设有"退款无需退货"和"退款退货"入口，"仅退款"政策 取消之后，平台或将只保留"退款退货"，"收到货"情形下退款是否退货将由商家与消费者协商决定。 在业内人士普遍看来，取消无序的"仅退款"有助于电商行业从低价竞争回归良性竞争，保障商家的经营 公平，释放消费活力，促进平台健康发展。 （文章来源：北京商报） 4月22日，北京商报记者独家获悉，拼多多、淘宝、抖音、快手、京东等多个电商平台将全面取消"仅退 款"，消费者收到货后的退款不退货申请，将由商家自主处理。 这意味着，"仅退款"在2021年时被拼多多率先推出，后在2024年时被京东、淘宝、抖音、快手等相关平 台相继引入，历时四年正式迎来落幕。北京商报记者还获悉，上述电商平台已就全面取消"仅退款"的相 关细节与管理部门进行了多轮商讨和修改，一旦审核完成即对社会公开宣 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook on overseas Chinese assets, focusing on sectors that may benefit from policy changes and deep value stocks that have been negatively impacted by market rumors [2][12]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of patience in waiting for market changes while actively seeking investment opportunities, particularly in sectors like cross-border e-commerce, domestic consumption-related internet assets, and undervalued stocks [3][12]. - It highlights the potential for recovery in the education sector due to government support for service consumption, as well as the luxury goods sector facing challenges from macroeconomic fluctuations [5][23]. - The report also notes the growth in the coffee and tea beverage sector, driven by increased delivery services and consumer demand, alongside a positive outlook for the OTA (Online Travel Agency) segment as travel demand rises [5][28]. Summary by Sections 1. Education - The Chinese education index increased by 2.28% during the week of April 14-18, 2025, underperforming against the Hang Seng Index but outperforming other major indices [14]. - Notable stock performances included a significant rise in stocks like Zhuoyue Education Group (+18.18%) and NetEase Youdao (+13.84%) [14][19]. 2. Luxury Goods - The luxury goods sector saw a decline, with LVMH's sales falling short of expectations, reporting a 3% decrease in Q1 2025 sales [23][29]. - The report suggests focusing on high-end brands with strong management capabilities and product innovation, as they are less affected by economic cycles [5][23]. 3. Coffee and Beverage & OTA - The coffee and beverage sector experienced notable stock increases, with Tims China (+18.29%) and Luckin Coffee (+8.45%) leading the gains [28]. - The OTA sector is expected to benefit from rising travel demand, with predictions indicating a significant increase in travel bookings during the upcoming holiday [5][28]. 4. E-commerce and Internet - The internet technology sector index rose by 0.37%, with key stocks like Beike (+7.67%) and Alibaba (+5.53%) showing strong performance [36][37]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the impact of tariff changes on cross-border e-commerce platforms and the overall market dynamics [12][36]. 5. Media - The media sector is encouraged to focus on stocks with strong fundamentals and dividend value, particularly in light of recent policy support for cultural industries [5][12]. - The report notes the potential for growth in AI applications within the media sector, emphasizing the importance of tracking developments in this area [5][12]. 6. Virtual Assets & Brokerage - The report indicates a slight improvement in sentiment towards virtual asset trading, with expectations for strong Q1 performance from brokerage firms like Futu Holdings and Tiger Brokers [5][12]. 7. Real Estate Transactions - The report suggests a positive outlook for the real estate market, with government emphasis on market potential and the construction of quality housing [5][12]. 8. Automotive Services - The report mentions potential developments in ride-hailing services in Macau, indicating a growing interest in the automotive service sector [5][12]. 9. Media and M&A - The report highlights ongoing trends in mergers and acquisitions within the media sector, suggesting a focus on companies that are well-positioned for growth through strategic partnerships [5][12].

最近互联网圈的关键词动辄就是千亿，比如电商巨头拼多多，年利润刚刚破了千亿，紧接着又发布了个 刷屏的"千亿扶持"项目。 而且收入增速似乎无法满足市场对拼多多的预期，常有业绩良好股价暴跌到底情况。 ▲图源：百度股市通 业绩和股价的此消彼长下，拼多多的市盈率已经来到了10倍以下。——这通常是一家完全不会增长的企 业的估值。相当于，市场对TEMU的估值为零，还预期拼多多的国内电商也会出现停滞甚至衰退。 再看净利润指标的话，拼多多增速放缓的迹象则更加明显。2022年-2024年，拼多多归属于普通股股东 的净利润增速分别为305.96%、90.33%、87.31%，数字一目了然。 在费用支出方面，本季营销费用支出314亿，同比增长18%。从同比增幅看，相比上几个季度40%以上 的增速，是有明显放缓的。但相比市场隐含的预期，稍稍多出十几亿。 支出的部分主要用于国内"国补"推广及Temu海外营销。 百亿"补"需求，千亿"补"供给，高增长神话能"补"回来吗？ 01 告别狂飙时代 2024年，拼多多依旧增长迅猛。据其最新财报，公司全年实现收入3938亿元，同比增长59%，远超同期 阿里8%和京东13.8%的营收增速；非美国会计准 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on the China Internet sector due to trade disputes and delisting risks, while highlighting potential opportunities in domestic consumption-focused companies [1][2]. Core Insights - The ongoing tariff dispute has limited direct operational impacts on most China internet companies, but it poses risks of a global economic slowdown and investment outflows [1]. - Major internet companies are increasing investments to support government initiatives aimed at converting export supply into domestic consumption, which may lead to excess supply and margin pressures if revenue growth slows [1][3]. - Delisting risks for American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) have escalated, prompting companies like PDD and YMM to consider dual listings in Hong Kong [1][4]. Summary by Sections Investment Opportunities - Key picks include Tencent and Alibaba as core AI plays, along with JD.com, YMM, and Meituan for domestic consumption exposure, and NetEase and TME for defensive revenue streams [2]. Government Initiatives - The Chinese government is actively promoting policies to boost domestic consumption, with several internet companies committing to support these initiatives [3][8]. - JD.com has launched a RMB 200 billion scheme to assist cross-border merchants in tapping into the domestic market [9][10]. Delisting Risks - The risk of ADR delisting has increased following comments from US Treasury officials, leading to expectations that companies without Hong Kong listings will seek dual listings [4][20]. - Companies with higher US investor ownership may face greater selling pressure if investment restrictions are imposed [26]. Earnings Outlook - The first quarter of 2025 is expected to be largely on track for major companies, with management's guidance for the second quarter and full year being closely monitored [5][29]. AI Technology Advancement - Despite tariff challenges, Chinese internet companies continue to advance their AI technologies, with significant investments planned for the coming years [6][32]. - Major players like Alibaba and Tencent are ramping up their AI capabilities, with substantial capital expenditures projected [37][38]. Market Performance - China's GDP grew by 5.4% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025, exceeding expectations, while online retail sales showed a growth of 7.9% year-on-year [47][48].

敬请投资者注意，受复活节假期影响，港股、欧洲股市和澳大利亚股市本周一休市。 特朗普列举8项非关税"作弊"手段，点名日本和欧盟，手段包括1.汇率操纵，2.增值税作为关税和出口补 贴，3.低于成本倾销，4.出口补贴和其他政府补贴，5.农业保护性标准（如欧盟禁止转基因玉米），6.防 护技术标准（如日本保龄球试验），7.假冒、盗版和知识产权盗窃（年损失超过1万亿美元），8.转运避 税。 中航信托宣布由建信信托、国投泰康信托来进行日常托管。虽然还没有正式官宣暴雷，但这个上百亿规 模的央企信托已经实质上雷了，之前多款面向社会投资者的信托产品已经停止兑付。中航信托之所以暴 雷，是因为之前重仓投资了房地产，恒大、融创、红星美凯龙的坑他们都踩了。另外有媒体报道，他们 在暴雷前曾经给内部员工进行提前兑付。目前，中航信托还有超过500亿的产品没有兑付。 A股方面，沪指上周累计涨1.19%、深成指跌0.54%、创业板指跌0.64%。市场持续缩量，周五创去 年"924"行情爆发以来新低。银行、房地产、综合、煤炭等板块逆市上涨，国防军工、农林牧渔、计算 机等板块跌幅居前。 港股方面，恒指上周累计涨2.3%，国指涨1.23%，恒生科技指数 ...

Group 1 - Shein and Temu announced plans for tariff-related price hikes effective April 25, 2025, due to increased operating expenses from changes in global trade rules and tariffs [1][3] - Both companies have communicated to customers about the price increases and encouraged shopping at current rates before the hikes take effect [2][3] - The end of the "de minimis" exemption, which allowed duty-free entry for goods priced below $800, is a significant factor in the price adjustments [2][3] Group 2 - Temu has reduced its paid advertising significantly, resulting in an 80% decrease in paid search traffic, which may negatively impact shopper engagement and pricing models [2] - Recent government data indicates muted online sales as consumers shift spending towards big-ticket items like electronics and cars in anticipation of new tariffs [4] - Sales in furniture and home furnishing stores showed a month-over-month decline of 0.7%, although they were up 7.7% compared to March 2024, indicating mixed performance in retail sectors [5] Group 3 - Despite concerns over tariffs and potential recession, consumer spending remains robust, supporting business results amid an uncertain macroeconomic environment [5][6] - There is evidence of a pullback in commercial lending and increased caution on credit, but digital adoption in retail banking and payments is accelerating [6]

Core Viewpoint - Cross-border e-commerce platforms SHEIN and Temu will adjust their prices starting April 25, 2025, in response to increased tariffs on goods from China and the removal of tax exemptions on small packages [1][2]. Group 1: Price Adjustments - SHEIN announced that its "price adjustment" will take effect later next week due to rising costs from recent changes in global trade rules, although the specific extent of the price increase was not disclosed [2][3]. - Temu also indicated that it will raise prices starting next week due to increased operational costs, while prices will remain unchanged until then [2][3]. Group 2: Market Position and Impact - SHEIN has become the third-largest fashion retailer globally with a market share of 1.53% in 2024, surpassing brands like ZARA, H&M, and Uniqlo, with Nike and Adidas leading the market [3]. - In the U.S. fast fashion market, SHEIN holds a dominant position with a 40% market share, followed by H&M, ZARA, and Uniqlo at 25%, 17%, and 12% respectively [3]. - Temu, launched in 2022, has rapidly expanded to over 80 countries, leveraging its parent company Pinduoduo's experience in the low-cost e-commerce sector [4]. Group 3: Regulatory Environment - The announcement of increased tariffs by former President Trump, which includes significant tariffs on Chinese goods and the cancellation of tax exemptions for packages under $800, has created a challenging regulatory environment for cross-border e-commerce platforms [4].

登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 此前有消息称，若在美上市的中国公司不允许检查会计底稿等，美国法律将准许其退市。而即将上任的 美国证交会主席保罗·阿特金斯（Paul Atkins）可能会在上任后，处理退市问题。这使得在美上市的中概 股再次面临不确定性。 记者根据Wind数据统计，截至4月18日，目前在美上市的中概股总计有390家，合计总市值超过9200亿 美元，其中包括阿里巴巴、拼多多在内的前20家中概股公司的市值超过7800亿美元，占比约85%。 值得注意的是，阿里巴巴、网易、京东等头部中概股多数已在香港二次上市或双重主要上市，目前仅在 美股市场上市的只有拼多多、亚玛芬体育、富途控股、满帮、唯品会等少数公司，且其中一些公司也已 筹划在港上市。 瑞银于近日公布的一份分析也指出，由于许多中概股已经实现在中国香港的双重上市，中概股"除牌"风 险预计影响较小。据记者统计，近些年赴美上市的企业整体募资总额以及平均单价企业募资规模均呈下 滑趋势。按上市日期算，2025年以来，截至4月18日，在美上市的中概股仅有32家，合计募资7. ...

千亿计划背后，拼多多增长的结构性革新。 特朗普发动的关税贸易战仍在进行。美国对中国出口商品加征的 "对等关税"，已经由 34% 连续增加 至 125%，总计叠加关税累计高达 145%，且 800 美元以下小包裹免税政策也将于 5 月 2 日起取消。 这种快速且剧烈的关税政策变动，同时给中美两国带来冲击。美国一直以来都是中国制造业的重要出 口市场，但在充满了高度不确定性的当下，供给侧短期转向国内市场成了必然选择，诸多内需刺激政 策正在讨论中。 但在长期出口导向型经济驱动下，中国成为 " 世界工厂 " 的同时，也形成了制造业 "以规模效益为核 心、以成本控制为优势" 的生产体系。这种模式虽快速占领了国际中低端市场，却也带来了矛盾。 其一，企业长期陷于 OEM 代工体系的路径依赖，品牌溢价与技术研发能力薄弱。这些工厂在很长一 段时间里，只要找到更便宜的出货渠道就能保证业绩的增长，既不缺订单也不需要花费精力创新，自 然没有升级产线、产品的动力。 但随着市场竞争逐渐激烈，因商品同质化而加剧的价格竞争使厂家的利润被不断摊薄，产品研发和品 牌建设难以开展，产品也缺少升级创新，产能过剩的同时，消费者依然有大量需求没有被满足。 ...