Core Viewpoint - TOP TOY International Group Limited, a subsidiary of Miniso Group, has officially submitted its listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to capitalize on the booming collectible toy market [1]. Group 1: Company Overview - TOP TOY was established in December 2020 and is recognized as the largest and fastest-growing collectible toy brand in China, with a projected GMV of 2.4 billion RMB for 2024 [2]. - The company has experienced significant revenue growth, with revenue increasing from 679 million RMB to 1.909 billion RMB over the past three years, and achieving 1.36 billion RMB in revenue with a net profit of approximately 180 million RMB in the first half of this year, resulting in a net profit margin of about 13.2% [3]. Group 2: IP and Revenue Dependency - TOP TOY currently holds 17 proprietary IPs, 43 licensed IPs, and over 600 third-party IPs, but its revenue heavily relies on external IPs, with licensed IPs contributing approximately 889 million RMB, accounting for about 47% of total revenue in 2024 [4][5]. - The company's proprietary IPs generated only 6.8 million RMB in revenue last year, representing less than 1% of total revenue, indicating a weak market influence compared to competitors like Pop Mart, which generated 11.121 billion RMB from its proprietary IPs, constituting 85% of its total revenue [5]. Group 3: Sales Channels and Partnerships - Miniso Group is the largest customer of TOP TOY, accounting for 48.3% and 45.5% of the company's total revenue in the last year and the first half of this year, respectively, with sales to Miniso amounting to 923 million RMB and 619 million RMB [8]. - The company plans to leverage its partnership with Yonghui Supermarket, which has become Miniso's largest shareholder, to enhance its sales channels, particularly for its own products like building blocks and blind boxes [10]. Group 4: Expansion Plans - TOP TOY aims to open 100 new stores in China this year, targeting a total of 380 to 400 stores by year-end, and plans to expand internationally by covering 100 countries and opening 1,000 stores over the next five years [10]. - The company has prepared a reserve fund of 10 billion RMB to support its ongoing domestic and international expansion efforts [10].

Core Insights - The launch of the "Star People Delicious Moments Series" by Pop Mart has generated significant consumer interest, leading to a buying frenzy with high viewership on live streams [2][8] - The inventory for the new series was notably lower compared to previous releases, resulting in products selling out within minutes [2] - The secondary market shows that the new series has a higher premium compared to previous releases, indicating strong demand and potential for future growth [8][9] Group 1: Product Launch and Sales Performance - Pop Mart's new series saw a live stream viewership of 560,000 on the抽盒机小程序 and 2.705 million on its Tmall flagship store [2] - The "Star People" series products sold out within minutes, with over 360,000 consumers adding the plush cookie keychain to their carts, while only 20,000 units were available [2] - In contrast, the previous "Mini LABUBU" series sold over 300,000 units on its launch night [2] Group 2: Market Demand and Pricing Trends - The hidden variant "Little Bear Cookie" from the new series has seen its price rise from 59 yuan to 929 yuan, a 16-fold increase, indicating high market demand [8] - The average transaction price for the "Star People" blind box is 167 yuan, compared to 135 yuan for the "Crybaby" series, despite the lower original price of the "Star People" blind box at 89 yuan [9] - The premium for the new series exceeds that of the previous "Mini LABUBU," which had a maximum price increase of 12.5 times [8][9] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The competition between "Star People" and "Crybaby" is intensifying, with "Star People" emerging as a strong contender for the next popular IP after "LABUBU" [9] - The market is closely watching which character will become the next top seller for Pop Mart, especially as the popularity of "LABUBU" begins to wane [9]

Core Insights - In the first half of 2025, Pop Mart achieved a revenue of 13.88 billion RMB, surpassing Disney's consumer products division, which reported 13.86 billion RMB, marking a significant milestone in the toy industry [1][2]. Group 1: Revenue Rankings - The LEGO Group leads the toy and IP consumer goods sector with a revenue of 38.45 billion RMB [2]. - Pop Mart ranks second with 13.88 billion RMB, followed closely by Disney at 13.86 billion RMB [2]. - Other notable companies include Bandai Namco (13.44 billion RMB), Hasbro (13.34 billion RMB), and Mattel (13.18 billion RMB) [2]. Group 2: Business Models and Strategies - Disney's business model has evolved over nearly a century, focusing on content creation, licensing, and theme parks, adapting to changes in media consumption [3]. - Pop Mart's success is attributed to its ability to leverage social media and e-commerce, creating emotional connections with consumers through its IPs, which cater to the growing "Kidult" market [4][5]. - The emotional value provided by Pop Mart's products resonates with consumers seeking personal expression and identity through their purchases [5][7]. Group 3: Market Trends and Consumer Behavior - The rise of the "Kidult" demographic, characterized by adults purchasing toys for emotional and social value, has significantly impacted the toy market [4][8]. - Both Disney and Pop Mart face challenges in maintaining consumer engagement in a fragmented market, with Disney focusing on emotional resonance and Pop Mart navigating the risk of becoming a "fast fashion" brand [8][9].

Core Insights - The "Starry People Delicious Moments Series" by Pop Mart is set to launch tonight at 10 PM, featuring collectible figures and plush accessories, with a notable focus on plush keychains priced at 59 yuan each [1] - The secondary market has seen significant price inflation, with complete sets of plush keychains selling for approximately 600-900 yuan, more than double the official price of 354 yuan [1] - The hidden variant "Little Bear Cookie" has reached a peak resale price of 929 yuan, representing a 15-fold increase from its original price [1] Pricing and Market Demand - The plush keychains consist of 6 regular and 1 hidden variant, with resale prices averaging 856 yuan on secondary platforms, indicating strong demand [1] - The top three most sought-after plush keychains have resale premiums exceeding 3.6 times their original price, while the least popular variant still sees a premium of 3.3 times [1] - The collectible figures from the same series, originally priced at 828 yuan for a set of 12 plus one hidden variant, are being resold for 1055 yuan, reflecting a 27% markup [1]

Core Insights - The upcoming release of the "Starry People Delicious Moments Series" by Pop Mart has generated significant pre-sale interest, with products already being listed on e-commerce platforms before the official launch [1][2] - The resale market for the series shows exceptionally high premiums, indicating strong demand and potential for investment opportunities [1][2] Pricing and Resale Data - The hidden "Little Bear Biscuit" pendant, priced at 59 yuan, has seen a resale price surge to 929 yuan, representing a 16-fold premium [1] - Individual blind boxes have increased from 59 yuan to 249 yuan, a 4.2-fold premium, while a complete box has risen from 354 yuan to 1499 yuan, also a 4.2-fold premium [1] - The average transaction price for the "Little Bear Biscuit" plush pendant on the QianDao app reached 612.7 yuan within three days of its listing [1] Comparison with Previous Releases - The current resale premiums for the "Starry People Delicious Moments" series exceed those of the mini LABUBU series, which had a hidden "Heart" pendant rise from 79 yuan to 991 yuan, a 12.5-fold premium [2] - The previous release of the "Starry People Good Dream Meteorological Bureau Series" also experienced a surge in popularity, causing platform outages due to high traffic [2] Stock Availability - Some products from the "Starry People" series are already sold out in physical stores, with only display items available, indicating strong consumer interest and demand [2]

Core Insights - The new "Starry People Delicious Moments Series" by Pop Mart has generated significant pre-sale interest, with products being listed on e-commerce platforms before the official launch [1] Pricing and Market Performance - The hidden version of the "Little Bear Biscuit" pendant, originally priced at 59 yuan, has seen its highest transaction price rise to 929 yuan, representing a 16-fold premium [1] - The price of individual blind boxes has increased from 59 yuan to 249 yuan, reflecting a 4.2-fold premium [1] - A complete box's price has surged from 354 yuan to 1499 yuan, also indicating a 4.2-fold premium [1] - The top three most popular items, "Vanilla Crunch," "Matcha Crisp," and "Salty Cookie," have all experienced premiums exceeding 3.6 times, while the least popular item, "Sweet Cream," still has a premium of 3.3 times [1] User Engagement - Over 3,000 users on the Dewu App have expressed interest in the new series [1] - On the Qiantao App, the average transaction price for the "Little Bear Biscuit" plush pendant has reached 612.7 yuan over three days, with individual blind box prices ranging from 79 to 525.5 yuan [1]

Core Insights - The upcoming release of the "Starry People Delicious Moments Series" by Pop Mart has generated significant pre-sale excitement, with products already being listed on e-commerce platforms before the official launch [2][3] - The resale market for the series shows remarkable price premiums, with the highest resale price for the hidden "Little Bear Biscuit" accessory reaching 929 yuan, a 16-fold increase from the original price of 59 yuan [2] - The popularity of the "Starry People" brand is evident, as previous releases have also experienced high demand, leading to stock shortages in physical stores [3] Pricing and Resale Market - The "Little Bear Biscuit" plush accessory has seen a resale average of 612.7 yuan on QianDao App, significantly higher than its original price [2] - The resale prices for individual blind boxes range from 79 to 525.5 yuan, indicating strong market interest [2] - Compared to the previous "Mini LABUBU" series, the current series shows higher resale premiums across all product types, with the highest premium for the hidden "Heart" variant reaching 12.5 times its original price [3] Market Demand and Performance - The "Starry People" brand has previously experienced explosive popularity, as seen during the release of the "Starry People Good Dream Meteorological Bureau Series," which caused platform outages due to high traffic [3] - There are reports of stock shortages in physical stores for certain "Starry People" products, indicating strong consumer demand [3]

Core Insights - The AI emotional companionship sector, previously labeled as "pseudo-demand," is potentially nurturing its first blockbuster product with the launch of "Fuzai" by Luobo Intelligent, achieving monthly sales of 20,000 units and pre-orders exceeding 100,000 units [2] - The founder, Sun Zhaozhi, identifies "emotional consumption" as a global trend, particularly among young people, where emotional issues drive them to pay for emotional value [2][3] - The target demographic for "Fuzai" primarily consists of Gen Z women, indicating a shift from emotional support as a luxury to a necessity [2] Company Overview - Luobo Intelligent was founded by Sun Zhaozhi, who has a background in industrial design and artificial intelligence, previously working at XPeng Motors and XPeng Robotics [3] - The product "Fuzai" differentiates itself through unique design and innovative technology, including the Multi-Modal Emotion Model (MEM) and EchoChain bionic memory system [3][5] Product Features - "Fuzai" establishes long-term emotional bonds with users through deep emotional interaction, setting it apart from other AI products [4] - The MEM technology allows "Fuzai" to accurately recognize users' emotional fluctuations by analyzing voice, expressions, and actions, creating a unique "emotional personality" [5] - The EchoChain system enables "Fuzai" to retain long-term memories of user interactions, enhancing the personalization of responses [5] Market Trends - The AI toy market in China is projected to reach 29 billion yuan by 2025, with an annual growth rate of 28%, potentially reaching 85 billion yuan by 2030 [4] - The rise of emotional consumption among young people, driven by social isolation and emotional voids, is creating a dependency on AI companionship products [4] - Investment in the AI toy sector is increasing, with 96 investment institutions involved, including major players like Sequoia and ByteDance [4][6] Competitive Landscape - The AI toy market is attracting numerous startups and established internet companies, with major players like Baidu and JD.com accelerating their investments [6] - AI toys are categorized into two types: native IP products and AI versions of existing IPs, expanding the market from children to all age groups [6] Future Developments - Luobo Intelligent is developing the "Fuzai ecosystem," which aims to integrate psychological assessments, parent-child companionship, and virtual social interactions into a comprehensive emotional service matrix [7] - The market for AI toys is increasingly focusing on the keyword "companionship," with a significant percentage of consumers willing to pay for emotional support services [7]

Group 1 - The new product "Starry People Delicious Moment Series - Freshly Baked Cookie Plush Keychain Blind Box" from Pop Mart (09992.HK) is highly sought after before its official release on September 29 [1][4] - The hidden variant "Bear Cookie" has seen its highest transaction price rise from 59 yuan to 929 yuan, representing a premium rate of nearly 15 times [1] - The individual blind box price increased from 59 yuan to 249 yuan, while the complete box price rose from 354 yuan to 1499 yuan, both showing a premium rate exceeding 3.2 times [1] Group 2 - The "Starry People Delicious Moment Series" figures are also popular, with a set of 12 plus one hidden variant priced originally at 828 yuan, now trading at 1055 yuan, indicating a 27% premium [4] - The series was created by artist Da Xin, and the characters represent stories of courage, longing, and love [4]

Summary of Pop Mart International Group Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Pop Mart International Group (Ticker: 9992.HK) - **Industry**: Consumer Products, specifically in the toy and collectibles sector - **Market Cap**: Approximately US$45.92 billion as of September 26, 2025 Key Observations from US Store Visits 1. **Customer Engagement**: Many new customers were observed in stores, indicating effective introduction of Pop Mart's "blind boxes" and diverse product offerings beyond just Labubu plush toys, suggesting strong potential for brand expansion in the US market [1][2] 2. **Store Locations**: The current 50 US stores are primarily located in residential areas, with limited presence in high-traffic commercial zones. This rollout strategy is seen as crucial for establishing a loyal customer base [2] 3. **Operational Challenges**: Some stores are smaller than optimal (≤100 sqm) despite good foot traffic. There is a reliance on app sales for bestsellers, and some stores are using social media for restocking announcements, indicating room for operational optimization [2][3] Customer Demographics - **Consumer Cohorts**: A notable presence of children accompanied by adults was observed, likely due to higher disposable income in the US. Adult customers aged 20-40 made up the majority, with Asian customers constituting 30-40% in some locations [3] Store Performance - **Traffic and Sales**: All visited stores reported strong traffic, with five outperforming adjacent stores, second only to Apple stores during the iPhone 17 launch. The Jersey Gardens store underperformed due to nearby discount offerings and limited product availability during its soft opening [4] Competitive Landscape - **Unique Selling Proposition**: No direct competition was noted in the toy/hobby sector offering a similar unboxing experience or product variety. Popular IPs beyond Labubu include Crybaby, Skullpanda, and various licensed anime/Disney products [5] Merchandise Strategy - **Product Rotation**: Each store carries a subset of Pop Mart's total portfolio, allowing for frequent rotation of merchandise to maintain customer interest and freshness [6] Financial Metrics and Projections - **Stock Rating**: Overweight with a price target of HK$382.00, representing a 44% upside from the current price of HK$266.00 [7] - **Earnings Projections**: Expected EPS growth from Rmb 2.43 in FY 2024 to Rmb 13.68 by FY 2027, with revenue projections increasing from Rmb 13.038 billion to Rmb 54.757 billion over the same period [7] Risks and Opportunities - **Upside Risks**: Faster overseas growth, successful product launches, and retention of sales momentum in China [15] - **Downside Risks**: Weak macroeconomic conditions, uncertainties in new product development, and challenges in overseas expansion [17] Conclusion Pop Mart International Group is positioned for growth in the US market, with strong customer engagement and a unique product offering. However, operational optimizations and strategic store placements will be critical for building a sustainable customer base. The financial outlook remains positive, with significant growth potential in earnings and revenue.