11月26日消息，三大指数小幅低开，中船系板块跌幅居前。截至今日开盘，沪指报3867.43点，跌0.07%；深成指报 12769.93点，跌0.06%；创指报2976.70点，跌0.14%。 消息面： 1、在11月25日外交部例行记者会上，有记者提问称，根据中方发布的消息，24日晚中美元首通了电话，中方如何评价这 次通话的成果？对此，发言人毛宁表示，据了解，此次通话是美方发起的，通话的氛围是积极的、友好的、建设性的。两国元 首就共同关心的问题进行沟通，对中美关系稳定发展十分重要。 2、科技部部长阴和俊在接受采访中表示，要强化高质量科技供给，引领现代化产业体系建设。部署实施一批国家重大科 技任务，全链条推进重点领域关键核心技术攻关取得决定性突破。 3、阿里巴巴财报电话会上透露，将"积极"投资于人工智能能力的提升，不排除在已承诺的三年3800亿元人民币投资之外 进行额外投资。未来三年内不太可能出现人工智能泡沫，人工智能资源整体将处于供不应求的状态。 4、国家航天局印发《国家航天局推进商业航天高质量安全发展行动计划（2025—2027年）》。行动计划指出，设立国家 商业航天发展基金，鼓励地方政府、金融机构、社会资本 ...

Market Performance - US stock markets collectively rose, with the three major indices experiencing gains for the third consecutive trading day. The S&P 500 index increased by nearly 1%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose over 1% [1][5] - Specific index performances included: Dow Jones at 47112.45 (+664.18, +1.43%), S&P 500 at 6765.88 (+60.76, +0.91%), and Nasdaq at 23025.59 (+153.58, +0.67%) [2][5] Federal Reserve Developments - The final interviews for the new Federal Reserve Chair candidates are expected to conclude soon, with Kevin Hassett being viewed as the frontrunner for the position [8][9] - Federal Reserve Governor Milan stated that the US economy requires significant interest rate cuts, indicating that current monetary policy is hindering economic growth and contributing to rising unemployment [3][15] - Financial markets anticipate a 25 basis point rate cut during the Federal Reserve's meeting on December 9-10, which would lower the federal funds rate target range from 3.75% to 4% [15] Technology Sector Insights - Nvidia claimed its technology remains "a generation ahead of the industry," asserting it is the only platform capable of running all AI models across various computing scenarios [4][5] - Nvidia's stock faced a significant drop of over 7% before recovering slightly, closing down approximately 2.6%, marking a two-month low in market value [6] International Relations - Reports indicate that Ukraine has tentatively agreed to a peace agreement proposed by the US, although some terms are still under discussion [11][10] - The US and Ukrainian delegations have reached consensus on core terms of the peace agreement, with expectations for Ukrainian President Zelensky to visit the US soon to finalize the deal [11]

Market Overview - Japanese and South Korean stock markets both saw gains, with the Nikkei 225 index rising by 350.40 points, a 0.72% increase, closing at 49009.92 points [5] - The three major U.S. stock indices also closed higher for the third consecutive trading day, with the Dow Jones increasing by 1.43% to 47112.45 points, the S&P 500 up by 0.91% to 6765.88 points, and the Nasdaq rising by 0.67% to 23025.59 points [5] - European stock indices also performed well, with the FTSE 100 index in London closing at 9609.53 points, a 0.78% increase, the CAC40 index in Paris at 8025.80 points, up by 0.83%, and the DAX index in Frankfurt at 23445.62 points, a 0.89% rise [5] International Macro - The U.S. federal government budget deficit for October reached $284 billion, largely due to the impact of a recent government shutdown that lasted 43 days, delaying payments such as government employee salaries [7] - The announcement of the next Federal Reserve Chair is expected soon, with Kevin Hassett being viewed as the leading candidate [7] - Federal Reserve Governor Milan stated that the U.S. economy requires significant interest rate cuts, claiming that current monetary policy is hindering economic growth and gradually increasing unemployment [8] Corporate News - Nvidia claims its technology remains a generation ahead of the industry, being the only platform capable of running all AI models across various computing scenarios [8] - Apple is projected to surpass Samsung and reclaim its title as the world's largest smartphone manufacturer, driven by the successful launch of the new iPhone series and a surge in consumer upgrades. Apple is expected to capture 19.4% of the smartphone market, which is anticipated to grow by 3.3% overall in 2025 [8]

股价下跌的同时，近期市场传出关于工业富联下调第四季度业绩目标、机柜出货预期的传闻，投资者对此十分关心。 工业富联在互动平台做出紧急澄清，称第四季度整体经营包括英伟达GB200、GB300等相关产品出货均按既定计划推进，客户需求持续畅旺，生产及出货 正常。公司未向市场下调第四季度利润目标。同时，与客户合作开发的下一代产品也在按前期计划如期顺利推进中。 作为英伟达的核心供应商之一，工业富联的服务器出货情况将与英伟达的AI芯片需求情况相关。 本月早些时候，工业富联也回应了订单和展望下调的市场传闻，称公司未发布任何相关口径，现有客户项目进度与交付节奏正常。对应产线、测试与交付 能力均按计划运作中，新品也推进顺利。工业富联称，无须过度解读市场传闻。 关于"AI泡沫论"的讨论仍在进行，美股多只算力相关个股股价震荡。上周英伟达发布超市场预期的最新季度财报后，该公司股价连续两日下跌。 从业绩情况看，工业富联和英伟达最新季度业绩都高于市场预期。英伟达在截至2025年10月26日的2026财年第三财季录得营收570亿美元，同比增长 62%，净利润319亿美元，同比增长65%。英伟达CEO黄仁勋还强调英伟达Blackwell芯片销 ...

事情的起因，是特朗普政府和中国签的一年期出口管制暂停协议。这协议一出来，美国国会直接炸了锅，本周四专门开听证会，主题就是"堵 芯片漏洞"，议员们唾沫横飞喊着要加码管制，生怕中国趁机追上。 哈喽大家好，今天小无带大家聊聊芯片圈的年度大瓜！ 美国对华芯片管制喊了这么久，本以为是"天罗地网"，结果越堵越慌、漏洞百出，反而被中国反手走出一条硬核破局路。 自相矛盾藏不住短板 结果呢？前脚刚喊完"收紧"，后脚美国商务部就给大家整了个活——批准向沙特和阿联酋卖英伟达Blackwell芯片！ 两家中东公司，各能拿到相当于3.5万颗GB300服务器的货，这操作直接给人看懵了。 咱先说说这暂停协议到底是啥买卖。根据美国财政部长贝森特说的，美国给中国两个好处：中国商品关税降10个百分点，9月29号该生效的 50%附属公司规则，暂停一年。 作为交换，中国放松稀土出口限制，还让恩智浦的子公司Nexperia恢复给美国卖芯片。 加州有个议员直接骂街了，说这暂停规则一年，等于给中国留足时间找路子绕开管制，纯纯给对手送buff啊！咱就是说，这话没毛病，毕竟这 规则本来是要管黑名单实体持股50%以上的关联公司，现在一暂停，可不就给了可乘之机。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential easing of U.S. export restrictions on advanced technology to China, particularly focusing on NVIDIA's H200 AI chip, which may soon be approved for sale to the Chinese market due to a thaw in U.S.-China relations [3][4][6]. Group 1: U.S.-China Relations and Export Policies - Recent discussions between U.S. and Chinese leaders have led to a consensus on easing trade and technology disputes, indicating a shift towards a more moderate U.S. stance on China [6]. - The U.S. Department of Commerce is currently evaluating adjustments to export control policies that have previously prohibited the sale of advanced chips to China [4][6]. Group 2: NVIDIA's H200 Chip - The H200 chip, released two years ago, boasts significantly improved specifications compared to its predecessor, the H100, with higher bandwidth memory and faster data processing capabilities [6]. - Estimates suggest that the performance of the H200 chip is approximately double that of the NVIDIA H20 chip, making it a highly competitive product in the AI chip market [7]. Group 3: Geopolitical Implications and Market Dynamics - The selective approval of chip exports to allied countries, such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE, highlights a differentiated approach by the U.S. government in response to varying geopolitical contexts [7]. - The potential approval of the H200 chip for sale to China could allow NVIDIA to regain market share in a rapidly growing sector that has been increasingly dominated by foreign competitors [4][6].

亚太市场异动。 今日早盘，日本和韩国股市均大幅上涨，日经225指数一度涨超4%，韩国综合指数一度涨近3%。截至记者发 稿时，日经225指数、韩国综合指数分别上涨3.68%、2.20%。 今日（11月20日）早盘，A股三大指数高开，随后涨幅有所收窄 。其中，银行股再度大涨，中国银行一度涨超 4%，续创历史新高。券商、锂矿、稀土、光刻机等板块也纷纷走强。 此外，日经225指数突破50000点关口，盘中涨幅一度超过4%；韩国综合指数的涨幅也一度接近3%。 随着市场对科技股估值泡沫的担忧大幅缓解，相关股票也集体走强。其中，万亿市值的软银集团盘中一度大涨 超9%。截至券商中国记者发稿时，软银集团涨幅仍超过6%，市值较昨日增长1.66万亿日元（约合人民币2300 亿元）。 银行、券商、锂矿等板块走强 今日早盘，A股三大指数集体高开，沪指开盘涨0.35%，深证成指涨1.03%，创业板指涨1.79%。截至记者发稿 时，上述指数涨幅有所收窄，沪指涨0.25%，深证成指涨0.34%，创业板指涨0.14%。 银行股盘中再度冲高，中国银行涨幅一度涨超过4%，股价再创新高。截至发稿，中国银行涨3%，邮储银行、 民生银行、浙商银行、光大 ...

全球市值最大的公司英伟达发布了强劲的当期营收展望，有助于平息对人工智能投资热可能崩盘的忧 虑。 这家芯片制造商周三在声明中表示，截至1月的第四财季，收入预计约为650亿美元。 分析师平均预估为620亿美元，其中有些预测高达750亿美元。 上述展望显示，市场对英伟达人工智能加速器的需求依然旺盛。 这类高价高性能芯片被用于开发AI模型。业界越来越担心对此类设备的投入失控。 美国已批准向阿联酋人工智能(AI)公司G42及地区竞争对手沙特阿拉伯的Humain出售数万块先进AI芯 片。此举将显著推动这两个海湾国家实现其成为科技领域重要参与者的雄心。美国商务部周三表示，已 批准向沙特阿拉伯和阿拉伯联合酋长国的两家公司出口先进的人工智能芯片， 相当于35,000颗英伟达的 Blackwell芯片。当天早些时候，沙特政府支持的人工智能公司HUMAIN表示，计划购买60万颗英伟达 人工智能芯片。 英伟达业绩展望发布后，英伟达股价盘后上涨5%。该股今年截至收盘累计上涨39%。 英伟达相关产业链港股： 英诺赛科(02577)：英诺赛科是氮化镓(GaN)功率半导体龙头企业，以收入计去年全球市佔达30%属最 大。美银证券看好英诺赛科长 ...

Core Insights - Major companies plan to invest $1 trillion in AI data centers over the next five years, with a focus on depreciation as a key financial consideration [2] - The lifespan of AI GPUs is uncertain, with companies like Google, Oracle, and Microsoft estimating a maximum lifespan of six years, but potentially shorter [2][4] - Investors are concerned about the depreciation period, as longer asset lifespans lead to smaller impacts on profits [2] Depreciation Challenges - AI GPUs are relatively new, with NVIDIA's first AI-specific processor launched around 2018, and the current AI boom starting in late 2022 [4] - NVIDIA's data center revenue surged from $15 billion to $115 billion in the fiscal year ending January 2023 [4] - There is no historical reference for the lifespan of GPUs, making it difficult for companies to estimate depreciation accurately [4][5] Market Reactions - CoreWeave has set a six-year depreciation cycle for GPUs, indicating a data-driven approach to asset valuation [4][5] - Despite high demand for NVIDIA's A100 and H100 chips, CoreWeave's stock fell 16% after earnings guidance was affected by third-party data center developer delays [5][6] - The stock of Oracle has also dropped 34% since reaching a historical high in September [6] Skepticism in the Market - Short-seller Michael Burry has expressed doubts about the longevity of AI chips, suggesting that companies may be overstating their lifespan and underestimating depreciation costs [6] - Burry believes that the actual lifespan of server equipment is around two to three years, which could inflate reported earnings [6] Technological Advancements - AI chips may depreciate within six years due to wear and tear or obsolescence from newer models [8] - NVIDIA's CEO has indicated that older chip models will lose significant value as new models are released [8] - Amazon has shortened the expected lifespan of some servers from six years to five years due to rapid technological advancements [8][9] Strategic Procurement - Microsoft is diversifying its AI chip procurement to avoid over-investment in any single generation of processors [9] - The rapid iteration of technology in the AI sector complicates depreciation estimates, requiring careful financial forecasting [9]

Core Viewpoint - The depreciation period of GPUs is a critical issue affecting corporate profits and investment returns, especially as major tech companies plan to invest $1 trillion in AI data centers over the next five years [3][5]. Depreciation Challenges - The actual lifespan of GPUs is under scrutiny, with estimates ranging from two to six years, leading to concerns about inflated earnings by companies like Microsoft, Google, and Oracle [3][6]. - The lack of historical data on GPU usage complicates depreciation assessments, making it difficult for investors and lenders to gauge the value of these assets [5][6]. Market Reactions - Concerns about AI spending have already impacted stock prices, with CoreWeave's shares dropping 57% from their June peak and Oracle's stock falling 34% from its September high last year [3]. - CoreWeave has adopted a six-year depreciation cycle for its infrastructure, but its stock fell 16% following earnings reports due to delays from third-party data center developers [6][3]. Technological Impact - Rapid technological advancements are pressuring the depreciation of AI chips, with new models being released annually, which may render older models obsolete more quickly [7][8]. - Companies like Amazon have shortened the expected lifespan of some servers from six years to five years due to the accelerated pace of technological development in AI and machine learning [7]. Corporate Strategies - Microsoft is diversifying its AI chip procurement to avoid over-investment in any single generation of processors, acknowledging the rapid pace of innovation [8][9]. - Depreciation estimates are influenced by various factors, including technological obsolescence and maintenance, requiring companies to justify their assumptions to auditors [9].