Seagate (STX) 2025 Conference Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Seagate Technology Holdings PLC (STX) - **Event**: 2025 Conference held on June 03, 2025 - **Key Speaker**: Gianluca Romano, EVP CFO Industry Insights - **Exabyte Growth vs. Revenue Growth**: There is a better alignment between exabyte growth and revenue growth, which has not been seen in the past due to previous oversupply situations in the industry [3][5] - **Demand Dynamics**: The industry currently has strong demand that exceeds supply, allowing for improved alignment of exabyte growth with revenue growth [5] - **Shift in Business Focus**: The data center business now represents over 80% of exabyte growth, a significant shift from the past when client business was still substantial [4] Financial Performance and Projections - **Improvement Cycle**: The business has been improving for approximately nine quarters, driven by consistent demand in data centers [8] - **Build to Order Strategy**: Implemented two years ago, this strategy provides visibility into future orders and has led to expected revenue increases and improved profitability for calendar year 2025 [9][10] - **Incremental Margins**: The company anticipates achieving 50% incremental margins when revenue exceeds $2.6 billion, driven by a transition to higher capacity products and effective pricing strategies [21][22] Technology and Product Development - **HAMR Technology**: The transition to higher capacity drives (from 24TB PMR to 30TB and 36TB HAMR) is expected to meet demand growth without increasing unit sales [11][12] - **AI Integration**: AI is being utilized across various functions within the company, including manufacturing and quality control, with expectations for increased integration in the future [19][20] - **Cost Efficiency**: The company is focused on maintaining a cost decline per terabyte as it transitions to higher capacity products, which will enhance profitability [32][34] Market Position and Competitive Landscape - **Exabyte Market Share**: While unit market share may remain stable, the company expects to improve its exabyte market share due to higher capacity products [37] - **Competitor Dynamics**: The main competitor is expected to release similar high-capacity products in the near future, but demand is strong enough that all units will be sold regardless of market share shifts [38] Operational Strategy - **Cycle Management**: The build to order model allows for better management of production cycles, reducing the risk of excess inventory during downturns [25][26] - **CapEx and OpEx Management**: The company plans to maintain capital expenditures at 4% to 6% of revenue, focusing on replacing aging equipment rather than expanding capacity [46][47] Shareholder Returns - **Share Buyback Program**: Seagate has authorized a share buyback program of up to $5 billion, with plans to initiate this once financial targets are met [58][60] Conclusion - **Investment Outlook**: The company is positioned for growth with strong demand, effective management strategies, and a focus on profitability, making it an attractive investment opportunity [57]

Group 1 - Starrex International Ltd. common shares will be delisted from the CSE at market close on June 3, 2025 [1][2] - The company is currently suspended from trading [1][2] - The delisting is referenced in Bulletin 2024-0908 [1]

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Company Overview - Seagate's shares have increased by approximately 28.9% over the past month, outperforming the S&P 500 [1] - The most recent earnings report is crucial for understanding the key drivers behind this performance [1] Earnings Estimates - Fresh estimates for Seagate have trended upward, with the consensus estimate shifting by 6.54% in the past month [2] VGM Scores - Seagate has an average Growth Score of C and a Momentum Score of B, while its Value Score is graded D, placing it in the bottom 40% for this investment strategy [3] - The overall aggregate VGM Score for Seagate is C, which is relevant for investors not focused on a single strategy [3] Outlook - The upward trend in estimates for Seagate appears promising, with a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), indicating an expectation of in-line returns in the coming months [4] Industry Performance - Seagate is part of the Zacks Computer - Integrated Systems industry, where IBM has gained 7.6% over the past month [5] - IBM reported revenues of $14.54 billion for the last quarter, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 0.6% [5] - IBM's expected earnings for the current quarter are $2.64 per share, representing a year-over-year change of 8.6% [6]

Core Insights - The industry is experiencing strong growth, particularly in the nearline segment, with a focus on technology advancements such as HAMR [2][3] - The company has successfully qualified three major customers for its HAMR product and is progressing towards the second generation of this technology [2] - The industry remains consolidated, and the company aims to enhance both revenue and profitability through effective execution of technology transitions [3]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The industry is experiencing strong growth, particularly in the nearline space, with a focus on improving both revenue and profitability [2][3] - The expectation for exabyte growth and revenue growth is more closely aligned than in previous cycles, indicating a more disciplined approach to capital expenditures [5][6] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is transitioning to second-generation HAMR products and has qualified three major customers, with expectations to qualify more in the coming months [2][3] - The build-to-order model is helping to manage inventory and demand effectively, with no indications of increasing inventory levels among customers [18][20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Demand is currently outpacing supply, and the industry is managing capital expenditures carefully, which is expected to extend the current growth cycle [7][8] - The AI sector is contributing to data retention, as companies are holding onto more data for future AI applications, which is expected to drive further demand [12][13] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on technology transitions, particularly with HAMR, which is expected to significantly increase gross margins and exabyte sales in the near future [27][36] - The strategy includes maintaining a balance between supply and demand while leveraging new technologies to enhance growth [9][41] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the sustainability of the current cycle, noting that demand is expected to continue growing, particularly with the integration of AI [11][12] - The company is optimistic about the future profitability and expects to reach a gross margin of 40% in the coming quarters, driven by the ramp-up of HAMR products [37][60] Other Important Information - The company is close to achieving its goal of reducing debt to $5 billion and is considering share buybacks as free cash flow improves [60] - The integration of Intevac is progressing well, with expectations of enhancing manufacturing capabilities [55][58] Q&A Session Summary Question: How does the company view the sustainability of the current cycle? - Management acknowledged that every cycle is different but expressed confidence in the current cycle's sustainability due to strong demand and disciplined capital management [5][8] Question: What is the impact of AI on data storage demand? - AI is already influencing data retention practices, with companies retaining more data to leverage AI capabilities, which is expected to drive future demand [12][13] Question: How is the company managing inventory levels? - The build-to-order model is providing visibility into customer demand, allowing the company to manage inventory effectively without indications of excess inventory [18][20] Question: What are the expectations for HAMR product adoption? - The company expects significant growth in HAMR product sales, projecting that 40% of nearline exabytes will be sold through HAMR products within the next fiscal year [27][36] Question: How does the company plan to handle potential declines in cloud demand? - Management indicated that the build-to-order model would provide early visibility into demand changes, allowing for proactive adjustments to operations [19][20]

Core Viewpoint - Seagate Technology Holdings plc (NASDAQ: STX) is recognized as a leading supplier of hard disk drives (HDDs), which are essential for data storage in large-scale data centers, holding nearly 90% of the data in these facilities [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Seagate is a major player in the HDD market, with its products being critical for data storage solutions [1] - The company benefits from the fact that over 80% of data in large-scale data centers is stored on HDDs, highlighting the importance of its technology in the industry [1]

Group 1 - Seagate Technology Holdings plc held its 2025 Investor and Analyst Conference Call on May 22, 2025, at 9:00 AM ET [1] - The event featured key company participants including Shanye Hudson (Senior Vice President, Investor Relations), Dave Mosley (CEO), and Gianluca Romano (CFO) [1] - The conference call included participation from various analysts representing firms such as Morgan Stanley, TD Cowen, and Wells Fargo Securities [1]

Seagate's Strategy and Innovation - Seagate is focused on enabling global technology megatrends through innovative data storage solutions[12] - The company is innovating data storage at scale with HAMR (Heat-Assisted Magnetic Recording) technology to meet the world's growing data needs[12, 32] - Seagate's Mozaic (HAMR) products offer cost-efficient capacity scaling by storing more data on each disk, rather than adding more disks[34] - The company is developing Mozaic 5+ with a path to 10TB per disk[82, 110] Market Trends and Demand - Data generation is fueling data center storage demand, with a projected mid-20% exabyte CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate)[20] - AI is poised to drive the next wave of mass capacity storage demand, as AI relies on mass capacity storage[23, 24] - Emerging Edge AI use cases are driving extraordinary CAGRs in various industries, such as financial services (+40%), video intelligence (+36%), smart factory (+31%), smart grid (+29%), and hospitals (+34%)[134] Financial Performance and Targets - Seagate has generated over $4 billion in free cash flow[60, 64] - The company is targeting a gross margin of 40% with further expansion opportunities[204, 213] - Seagate is committed to returning over 75% of free cash flow to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases[213, 219] - The company is raising its share repurchase authorization to $5 billion[68, 215, 219]

Seagate (STX) 2025 Investor Day Summary Company Overview - Seagate has been in the hard drive industry for 45 years, focusing on data storage solutions for devices and cloud services [16][14][12] - The company shipped 550 exabytes of data in the past year, which is approximately half a zettabyte, enough to store two-thirds of the data on the world's cell phones [16][12] Industry Insights - The growth of data is a central theme, with projections indicating a mid-twenties compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for data centers over the next decade [23][12] - The world is expected to generate 72 zettabytes of data annually by 2020, with most data not being stored or utilized [21][22] - Nearline storage in data centers is projected to require 7.2 zettabytes of new data over the next four years, surpassing the storage capacity needed in the last decade [24][23] Technology Developments - Seagate is transitioning from perpendicular magnetic recording (PMR) to heat-assisted magnetic recording (HAMR) technology, which will significantly increase storage capacity [46][81] - The introduction of HAMR allows for a jump from 30 terabyte drives to 50 terabyte drives, with expectations to ship 50 terabyte drives by 2028 [47][46] - The company is currently in volume production of Mosaic three technology, which supports three terabytes per disk, and is preparing for Mosaic four, which will support four terabytes per disk [78][95] Financial Performance - Seagate has achieved a 10% uplift in gross margin since the last Analyst Day and has generated $4 billion in free cash flow [69][70] - The company has returned $7 billion in value to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks, including an 11% increase in dividends [69][70] - Seagate has authorized an additional $5 billion for share buybacks, reflecting confidence in long-term growth [70][71] Market Positioning - The company maintains a build-to-order model for 70% of its data center volume, ensuring a disciplined approach to supply and demand [66][67] - Seagate is focusing on both cloud and edge data storage solutions, recognizing the importance of data sovereignty and local data centers [36][37][38] Customer Insights - Customers emphasize the total cost of ownership (TCO) benefits of hard drives compared to solid-state drives (SSDs), with hard drives being six to seven times more cost-effective [74][75] - The demand for higher capacity hard drives is driven by the need for efficient data storage solutions in data centers [75] Future Outlook - Seagate anticipates continued growth in data storage needs driven by emerging applications, particularly in AI and video content [30][31][32] - The company is confident in its ability to innovate and meet future storage demands, with plans for further advancements in technology and capacity [70][71][106]