Core Viewpoint - CICC forecasts Swire Properties (01972) to achieve EPS of HKD 1.07 and HKD 1.25 for 2025-26, with a CAGR of 5.9% [1] - The company is currently trading at a 5.6% dividend yield for 2025 and a 39% NAV discount, with a target price of HKD 23.8, implying a 16% upside potential [1] Group 1: Asset Quality and Returns - Swire Properties holds high-quality assets in Hong Kong and mainland China, with long-term stable returns [2] - The core asset portfolio includes large mixed-use communities in Hong Kong and landmark commercial complexes in mainland China, contributing 36% and 35% to rental income respectively in 2024 [2] - The cost return rate of its holding properties is expected to increase from 4.0% in 2011 to 5.3% by 2024 [2] Group 2: Investment Plans and Profit Growth - The "HKD 100 billion investment plan" aims to drive steady growth in core rental profits, with 50% allocated to mainland properties [3] - By the end of 2024, HKD 46 billion of the mainland investment has been allocated, with an expected 82% increase in floor area by project completion [3] - Although rental profits may remain flat or slightly decline in 2025-26 due to the Hong Kong office market, a CAGR of 8% in core rental profits is anticipated from 2027-29, with mainland properties potentially reaching over 15% [3] Group 3: Financial Resilience and Shareholder Returns - The company aims for annual dividend growth in the mid-single digits supported by planned investment projects [4] - Capital expenditures are projected at HKD 84 billion, HKD 70 billion, and HKD 42 billion for 2025-27 [4] - The company has a resilient balance sheet with a net debt ratio of 15.7% in 2024, and has generated over HKD 50 billion from asset disposals from 2017-24 [4]

Core Insights - The launch of the Louis Vuitton maritime-themed landmark "Louis" in Shanghai marks a significant milestone in the retail landscape, attracting over 10,000 daily reservations and contributing to the phenomenon of "first-release economy" in Shanghai by 2025 [1] - The collaboration between Swire Properties and Louis Vuitton is a result of deep co-creation, aimed at enhancing the retail experience in the Nanjing West Road area, positioning it as a global top-tier retail destination [1] Group 1 - Nanjing West Road has been a core area for Swire Properties' retail strategy, showcasing a blend of historical architecture and modern retail experiences [2] - The Zhangyuan project represents a significant transformation over the past two years, merging traditional and contemporary elements to create a unique shopping environment [2] - Swire Properties aims not only for commercial success but also for community development, integrating international retail concepts with local cultural elements [2] Group 2 - The Zhangyuan project is only in its first phase, with two-thirds yet to open, and is expected to connect three subway lines by the end of next year, significantly enhancing the area's accessibility [2]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Swire Properties (01972.HK) has announced the sale of its interests in retail, parking assets, and facilities at Brickell City Centre for a maximum consideration of $549 million, including contingent consideration of up to $36.1 million [1][2] Group 2 - The sale includes 75% equity interest in BCC Retail Holdings, which owns 100% of BCC Retail, and all assets related to the parking portion and 100% membership interest in BCC Facilities, which manages the common areas and facilities of Brickell City Centre [1][2] - Brickell City Centre is a mixed-use development located in the Brickell financial district of Miami, Florida, comprising retail, office buildings, a serviced apartment hotel, and residential towers, with Swire Properties having previously sold the office buildings and residential units [2] - Proceeds from the sale will be used to meet Swire Properties' financing obligations in the U.S. and for general working capital purposes [2]

Core Viewpoint - Swire Properties emphasizes that a talented team is crucial for implementing its HKD 100 billion investment plan, with recent management changes aimed at enhancing its retail business in mainland China [1][9]. Group 1: Management Changes - Swire Properties has announced a series of internal appointments, promoting executives with extensive experience in the mainland market, particularly in the management teams of its Taikoo Li projects in Beijing, Shanghai, and Chengdu [1]. - Yu Guoan, previously in charge of Beijing Sanlitun Taikoo Li, has been appointed as General Manager of Retail Business (New Projects) for mainland China [1][5]. - Gu Yuzhen, General Manager of Shanghai Qiantan Taikoo Li, has been appointed as General Manager of Retail Business (Shanghai Pudong) [1][5]. - Wu Yushan, General Manager of Chengdu Taikoo Li, has been promoted to General Manager of Retail Business for mainland China, while continuing to lead Chengdu Taikoo Li [1][8]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The recent management changes are closely linked to Swire Properties' HKD 100 billion investment plan, with approximately HKD 50 billion allocated to the mainland market [9]. - The company aims to double its total floor area in mainland China by 2032, reflecting its long-term commitment to the market [9]. - Retail business is a key focus area for Swire Properties, with several new or expanded retail projects planned [9]. Group 3: Retail Performance - In 2024, retail business accounted for 51.2% of Swire Properties' total revenue, marking a 2.5 percentage point increase from 2023 [9]. - Rental income from retail properties in mainland China rose by 7% to HKD 4.489 billion, with an average foot traffic increase of about 5% [10]. - The rental income for Beijing Sanlitun Taikoo Li increased by 12%, reaching a historical high since its opening, while Shanghai Qiantan Taikoo Li saw a 7% growth [10]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The company is optimistic about the mainland retail market, anticipating a steady growth in retail sales driven by domestic demand and ongoing renovations of its shopping centers [10]. - The mainland is expected to become one of the largest luxury goods markets globally, supported by a continuous increase in luxury sales [10].

Core Viewpoint - Recent personnel changes at Swire Properties (HK01972) indicate a strategic move to strengthen its retail business in mainland China, particularly through the promotion of key management personnel from regional to decision-making roles [1][2][8]. Group 1: Personnel Changes - Swire Properties announced significant personnel adjustments involving the core management team of Taikoo Li in Shanghai, Beijing, and Chengdu, promoting Yu Guoan and Wu Yushan to higher management roles within the mainland retail business [1][2]. - Wu Yushan's promotion is linked to her successful management of Chengdu Taikoo Li, which has been recognized for its strong operational performance since its opening in 2015 [2][3]. Group 2: Retail Business Performance - The retail segment has become a crucial revenue driver for Swire Properties, accounting for 51.2% of total revenue in 2024, an increase of 2.5 percentage points from 2023 [8]. - The rental income from mainland retail properties rose by 7% to HKD 4.489 billion in 2024, with a real growth of 4% after excluding currency and equity changes [11]. - Retail sales at Chengdu Taikoo Li and Guangzhou Taikoo Hui increased by 24% and 67%, respectively, compared to 2019, indicating robust growth in the retail sector [12]. Group 3: Strategic Implications - The management changes are interpreted as a signal that Swire Properties is likely to further expand its retail presence in mainland China, particularly in high-growth potential markets like Beijing, Chengdu, and Shanghai [1][8]. - The company’s CEO highlighted the potential for accelerated retail growth in mainland China due to increasing domestic demand and upcoming mall renovations, positioning the region as a key market for luxury brands [12].

Group 1: Company Performance - The company reported Q1 retail sales growth in its mainland shopping centers, with Shanghai Xinya Taikoo Hui, Beijing Sanlitun Taikoo Li, and Shanghai Qiantan Taikoo Li showing increases of 10.1%, 6%, and 1.5% year-on-year respectively [1] - Retail sales in Chengdu Taikoo Li, Guangzhou Taikoo Hui, and Beijing Yintai Center declined by 2.9%, 2.5%, and 0.4% year-on-year, but the decline was significantly narrower compared to 2024 [1] - The improvement in retail sales is attributed to the introduction of more luxury brands following renovations completed at the beginning of 2025, particularly benefiting Shanghai Xinya Taikoo Hui [1] Group 2: Market Trends - Hong Kong shopping centers maintained full occupancy with a slight improvement in retail sales growth, with Taikoo City Centre, Taikoo Place, and Citygate Outlets showing year-on-year growth rates of +2.9%, -5%, and -5.8% respectively [2] - The overall rental rate for Hong Kong office buildings remained under pressure due to market oversupply, with a Q1 occupancy rate of 89%, consistent with the end of 2024 [2] - In mainland office projects, Guangzhou Taikoo Hui and Beijing Yintai Center saw occupancy rates increase by 1 percentage point to 91% and 84% respectively, while Shanghai Xinya Taikoo Hui's rate decreased by 2 percentage points to 94% [2] Group 3: Investment Outlook - The company is characterized as a commercial real estate firm that generates stable cash flow through holding assets with a competitive edge [3] - Q1 performance in mainland shopping centers aligns with expectations, driven by the company's strong leasing and renovation capabilities [3] - Projected net profit growth for the company is 449%, 54%, and 37% for the years 2025 to 2027, with a consistent annual dividend growth of 5% [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Swire Properties (1972.HK) with a target price of HKD 21.55 [2][8]. Core Insights - The company's Q1 performance met expectations, with improvements in the operation of shopping centers in mainland China. Retail sales in key locations such as Shanghai and Beijing showed positive growth, while declines in other areas were significantly reduced compared to 2024 [2][8]. - The report highlights the strong competitive advantage of Swire Properties due to its prime location shopping centers and robust leasing capabilities, which are expected to drive rental income growth in the coming years [8]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are HKD 14,428 million, HKD 14,616 million, HKD 14,995 million, and HKD 18,638 million respectively, with growth rates of -2.1%, 1.3%, 2.6%, and 24.3% [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be -HKD 766 million in 2024, increasing to HKD 2,676 million in 2025, HKD 4,132 million in 2026, and HKD 5,671 million in 2027, with growth rates of -129.0%, 449.3%, 54.4%, and 37.2% respectively [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be -HKD 0.13 in 2024, HKD 0.46 in 2025, HKD 0.72 in 2026, and HKD 0.98 in 2027 [4]. Market Performance - The report notes that Swire Properties' shopping centers in Hong Kong maintained full occupancy, with slight improvements in retail sales growth compared to the previous year [8]. - The overall rental market for office spaces in Hong Kong remains under pressure due to oversupply, with an occupancy rate of 89% in Q1 [8]. Investment Recommendation - Swire Properties is characterized as a commercial real estate company that generates stable cash flow through holding assets with a competitive moat. The expected growth in net profit and consistent dividend growth of 5% annually supports the investment thesis [8].

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley maintains a target price of HKD 16 for Swire Properties and a "Market Perform" rating [1] - In Q1 2025, rental performance for Swire Properties in Hong Kong showed flat rental rates for Taikoo Place, with a rental adjustment rate of -16% year-on-year [1] - Retail performance in Hong Kong for Q1 2025 indicated a 5% year-on-year decrease in retail sales at Taikoo Place and a 5.8% decrease at Cityplaza, while Taikoo City Centre saw a 2.9% increase [1] Group 2 - In mainland China, all six retail malls recorded quarter-on-quarter improvements in retail sales for Q1 2025 [1] - Positive growth was observed in Shanghai and Beijing, while Guangzhou and Chengdu experienced declines [1]

Financial Performance - The company reported a profit of HK$7980 million for FY 2022 [9], a 12% increase compared to FY 2021's HK$7112 million [9] - Recurring profit for FY 2022 was HK$7176 million [9], a 9% decrease from FY 2021's HK$7143 million [9] - Underlying profit decreased by 1% to HK$8706 million in FY 2022 [9], compared to HK$9532 million in FY 2021 [9] - The company is aiming for mid-single-digit dividend growth [9], with a full year dividend per share of HK$1.00 [9], a 5% increase from HK$0.95 in 2021 [9] Portfolio Performance - Hong Kong office portfolio maintained a resilient performance with 96% overall occupancy [9] - Hong Kong retail portfolio is recovering, with almost fully let occupancy [9] - Chinese Mainland retail portfolio saw a 5% increase in attributable retail gross rental [9] - Chinese Mainland office portfolio demonstrated robust performance with overall occupancy between 94% and 99% [9] Investments and Developments - The company has committed close to 40% of its HK$100 billion investment plan [11] - The company expects 8.2 million sq ft of attributable GFA to be completed from 2023 onwards [19] - The company acquired the remaining 50% interest in Sino-Ocean Taikoo Li Chengdu for RMB 5.6 billion [34]

2022 INTERIM RESULTS | ANALYST BRIEFING 11TH AUGUST 2022 DISCLAIMER This presentation has been prepared by Swire Properties Limited (the "Company", and together with its subsidiaries, the "Group") solely for information purposes and certain information has not been independently verified. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the accuracy, fairness, completeness, reasonableness or correctness of the information or opinions presented herein or ...