Core Viewpoint - Ctrip Group has been selected as a core asset in the consumer tourism sector for 2026, reflecting its strong position in the recovering domestic consumption market and its structural transformation into a comprehensive tourism service provider [1] Company Analysis - Ctrip is transitioning from a "single booking platform" to a "full-domain tourism ecosystem service provider," leveraging its leadership in the online travel agency (OTA) sector [1] - The company reported a revenue of 47 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 16%, and an adjusted operating profit of 13.29 billion yuan, up 11.5%, showcasing its resilience in a challenging consumption environment [1] - Ctrip's unique model combines a stable domestic base, international business expansion, comprehensive supply chain coverage, and technological empowerment, resulting in a profit structure characterized by both cyclical resilience and growth certainty [1] Industry Trends - The tourism service industry is experiencing growth, benefiting from an increase in domestic tourism service share and a significant recovery in inbound tourism due to favorable policies aimed at stimulating consumption [3] - The domestic tourism market is showing steady growth, with a year-on-year increase of 18% in tourist numbers and 11.5% in tourism revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 [8] - The OTA penetration rate in China reached 51.5% in 2024 and continues to rise, indicating a shift towards online booking as the mainstream mode of tourism consumption [8] Competitive Advantages - Ctrip has established significant barriers to entry through brand and traffic advantages, with a user repurchase rate exceeding 60% [4] - The company has a robust supply chain covering over 750,000 hotels in more than 600 cities domestically and 1.2 million hotels globally, providing a comprehensive one-stop service for diverse travel needs [4][5] - Ctrip's early global expansion through acquisitions has positioned it well in the international market, with substantial growth in international OTA bookings [5] Business Structure - Ctrip's domestic tourism business remains the core profit base, contributing over 80% of revenue in the first three quarters of 2025, supported by both high-end and budget travel segments [10] - The international tourism business is rapidly growing, with a significant increase in bookings for inbound and outbound travel, expected to become a core growth driver alongside domestic operations [10] - The company has diversified its service offerings beyond core travel bookings to include vacation products, scenic tickets, and business travel management, enhancing its revenue structure [11][12] Investment Outlook - Ctrip is viewed as an attractive investment opportunity due to its low valuation and strong growth potential, with expected revenue growth of 15%-17% in 2026 [13] - The company is anticipated to benefit from policy incentives, rising consumer income, and a recovering tourism market, positioning it as a key player in the consumption recovery cycle [14]

Core Viewpoint - Ctrip Group has been selected as a core asset in the consumer tourism sector for 2026, reflecting its strong position and potential for growth in the recovering tourism market [2][3]. Summary by Sections Selection Logic and Analysis - Despite pressures in the domestic consumption market in 2025, the tourism sector shows clear signs of recovery, supported by policies aimed at increasing consumer spending [3]. - Ctrip is transitioning from a "domestic OTA leader" to a "comprehensive tourism ecosystem service provider," leveraging its unique model of "stable domestic base + international business expansion + full supply chain coverage + technology empowerment" [3]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, Ctrip reported revenue of 47 billion yuan, a 16% year-on-year increase, and adjusted operating profit of 13.29 billion yuan, up 11.5%, demonstrating strong resilience in a challenging consumption environment [3]. Revenue Structure - Revenue breakdown for Q1-Q3 2024 and 2025 shows growth in various segments, including accommodation bookings increasing from 16.4 billion yuan to 19.8 billion yuan, and other services from 3.4 billion yuan to 4.5 billion yuan [5]. Competitive Advantages - Ctrip's leadership in the industry is attributed to over 20 years of accumulated competitive advantages, creating barriers for new entrants [8]. - The brand and traffic barrier is significant, with Ctrip and Qunar occupying the top two positions in the domestic tourism service industry, maintaining a user repurchase rate above 60% [8]. - Ctrip has a robust supply chain covering over 750,000 hotels in China and 1.2 million hotels globally, providing a comprehensive one-stop service for diverse travel needs [8]. - The company has established a global presence through acquisitions like Skyscanner and Trip.com, enhancing its international business matrix [9]. - Continuous investment in AI technology has improved operational efficiency, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 34.6% in Q3 2025, showcasing significant cost reduction and efficiency gains [11]. Industry Trends - Ctrip benefits from three core trends in the domestic consumption and tourism industry, including policy support for service consumption upgrades, steady growth in the domestic tourism market, and increasing OTA penetration rates [12]. - The domestic tourism market saw an 18% year-on-year increase in tourist numbers and an 11.5% increase in tourism revenue in the first three quarters of 2025 [12]. - OTA penetration reached 51.5% in 2024, with Ctrip capturing a significant share of the market as the industry consolidates [12]. Business Layout - Ctrip has diversified beyond a single travel booking platform, developing three core business segments that work synergistically to create a stable and growing profit structure [14]. - Domestic tourism remains the core profit base, with Ctrip and Qunar catering to a wide range of customer needs, contributing over 80% of total revenue in the first three quarters of 2025 [15]. - International tourism is emerging as a high-growth engine, with Q3 2025 bookings for inbound travel doubling compared to pre-pandemic levels [15]. - Ctrip's diversified service offerings, including vacation products and business travel management, enhance its revenue ecosystem [16]. Investment Outlook for 2026 - Ctrip presents a compelling investment opportunity due to its attractive valuation and strong growth prospects, with an adjusted P/E ratio around 20, indicating a historical low [18]. - Revenue growth for 2026 is projected at 15%-17%, driven by domestic business growth and international expansion, with net profit growth expected to reach 18%-20% [18]. - Long-term trends such as policy support and rising consumer income will continue to benefit Ctrip, positioning it as a key player in the recovery of the tourism sector [18][20].

Core Insights - Ctrip's AI-driven "Smart Engine 3.0" has achieved large-scale application, resulting in over 10% order growth for merchants and a 38% GMV growth for core partners, indicating a strategic shift towards empowering ecosystem partners for efficiency and revenue growth [1][3] Group 1: AI Tools and Their Impact - The newly launched "CTRIPS Fusion Model" has provided over 10% order growth in group travel scenarios by making traffic allocation logic transparent, allowing merchants to optimize specific factors for increased exposure [3] - The AI dual-mode shopping guide system handles 80% of pre-sales inquiries, enabling customer service to focus on high-value transactions, thus significantly freeing up human resources for partners [3] - AI video generation tools for team travel routes have drastically reduced traditional video production costs, allowing partners to create a large volume of personalized marketing materials at near-zero marginal costs [3] Group 2: Addressing Service and Experience Challenges - Ctrip has improved the Net Promoter Score (NPS) for team travel services by over 20 percentage points through the "fitting NPS" mechanism and AI interventions, enhancing customer repurchase rates and word-of-mouth recommendations [3] - The company aims to solve fundamental operational challenges for partners, thereby increasing customer loyalty and continuous traffic flow [3] Group 3: Strategic Market Positioning - In the car rental sector, Ctrip is avoiding price wars by implementing "Worry-Free Rental" standards and directing traffic towards quality products and merchants, demonstrating that empowering good products can yield higher conversion returns [4] - Ctrip's CEO emphasizes that innovation is about creating incremental value for the industry, with all AI investments and model upgrades aimed at enhancing partner efficiency and revenue growth [4]

Market Overview - The tourism market is experiencing a comprehensive recovery during the 2026 New Year's holiday, with a surge in demand for staggered travel, significant growth in both hotel and flight bookings, and a strong rebound in the inbound market [1][11] - The domestic market is stimulated by the "take 3 days off and rest 8" holiday mode, leading to over 100% year-on-year increase in hotel search volume and over 50% increase in flight search volume [1][8] - The inbound market benefits from visa-free policies, with hotel search volume increasing by over 150% year-on-year, and popular destinations include Shanghai, Guangzhou, Beijing, Sanya, and Shenzhen [1][11] User Behavior Changes - There is a notable change in user behavior, with an expected over 50% share of hotel stays being cross-province, and the demand for stays of 2 days or more increasing [2][17] - The majority of travelers are from major cities such as Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou, with a north-south travel preference emerging [2][20] - Emerging destinations like Kaifeng and Jingdezhen are gaining popularity due to rich New Year activities, with the top 10 hotel destinations including major cities from both northern and southern China [2][21] Thematic Consumption Trends - The focus on thematic consumption is driving the growth of related hotel categories, with keywords like hot springs, private baths, and skiing becoming top search terms [2] - Hotel night volume for hot spring hotels has increased by over 600% year-on-year, while ski hotels have seen a 200% increase [2] - Events such as New Year concerts and music festivals significantly boost hotel bookings, with surrounding hotel search volume increasing by over 800% during specific events [2] Operational Strategies for Hotels - Hotels need to optimize operations from multiple dimensions, particularly in OTA operations by leveraging booking peaks around December 31 [3] - Marketing strategies should include participation in EBK seasonal coverage activities to gain exclusive traffic and enhance sales through online travel photography campaigns [3] - Product design should focus on early booking discounts and multi-night stay packages, integrating New Year activities, attraction tickets, and dining services to meet the needs of staggered travel and long-term stays [3]

Core Viewpoint - The majority of Chinese concept stocks experienced gains, with notable increases in companies such as Hesai (HSAI.US), Pinduoduo (PDD.US), Futu Holdings (FUTU.US), Pony.ai (PONY.US), and Trip.com (TCOM.US) [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Hesai (HSAI.US) rose over 6% [1] - Pinduoduo (PDD.US) increased by more than 4% [1] - Futu Holdings (FUTU.US) and Pony.ai (PONY.US) both saw gains exceeding 3% [1] - Trip.com (TCOM.US) experienced a rise of over 2% [1] Group 2: Market Indices - The Shanghai Composite Index opened high and continued to rise, achieving a rare 13 consecutive days of gains, breaking the previous high from November 14, 2025, and reaching the highest level since July 2015 [1] - The Hang Seng Index increased by 1.38% [1] Group 3: Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China is set to hold its work conference on January 5-6, 2026, where it will discuss the implementation of a moderately accommodative monetary policy for the year [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the inbound tourism market in China is entering a "golden window period," with inbound group travel becoming a new growth engine for tourism companies [1] - Policies such as visa exemptions and transit visa waivers are continuously optimized, facilitating foreign tourists' travel to China [1] - The inbound tourism market in China is expected to reach a scale of $180 billion by 2030, but its current contribution to GDP is still less than 0.5%, indicating significant growth potential [1] Group 2 - The tourism platform is becoming a key hub connecting domestic travel agencies with international customers by building a global product matrix and implementing refined scenario operations and cross-border integrated marketing [1] - Ctrip's inbound team travel has seen a fivefold increase in visitor numbers since May 2025, with daily order volume increasing eightfold, demonstrating strong momentum [1] - The tourism industry is undergoing a profound transformation from "traffic-driven" to "experience-driven" due to the deep application of AI technology and the rapid growth of the inbound tourism market [1] Group 3 - Personalized travel demands are being captured and responded to more accurately through multimodal AI technology, which can understand text, voice, images, and videos [2] - AI has improved recommendation effectiveness by 8%, significantly enhancing product recommendation rates for merchants, with a 20-fold increase in efficiency compared to previous manual operations [2] - Ctrip's AI-driven "Smart Engine 3.0" has achieved large-scale application, bringing over 10% order growth to merchants and enabling core partners to achieve a GMV growth rate that outpaces the market by 38% [2]

Group 1 - Ctrip (TCOM.US) saw a pre-market increase of approximately 2.5%, reaching $76.99 [1] - The company's recent New Year's travel report indicates a strong start for the domestic tourism market in 2026, with a more than fourfold year-on-year increase in domestic scenic spot ticket bookings [1] - There has also been a significant rise in inbound travel-related bookings, marking the first consumption surge of 2026 [1] Group 2 - Citigroup's research report notes that domestic travel performance during the New Year was stable, while cross-border travel showed robust growth [1] - The upcoming Spring Festival is expected to be even more significant, with a forecast of strong performance due to a 9-day holiday in 2026, one day longer than in 2025 [1] - Citigroup maintains a "Buy" rating on Ctrip [1]

Core Viewpoint - US-listed Chinese stocks showed mixed performance in pre-market trading, with some companies experiencing gains while others faced declines [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Ctrip saw an increase of 2% [1] - ZTO Express and NIO both rose by 1% [1] - Futu Holdings experienced a slight gain of 0.5% [1] - Alibaba's stock declined by 0.8% [1]

在投资标的选择上，该行看好腾讯与阿里巴巴作为核心AI受益股；携程与网易则凭借稳健的盈利能力 展现韧性；极兔速递具备跨境业务的增长潜力。 花旗发表研报指，中国互联网板块在2025年表现突出，以31%的涨幅领跑全球主要市场。展望2026年， 中国的AI主题有望成为互联网行业的核心焦点，市场预期将围绕三大方向展开：首先是云基础设施、 及推理Token使用所带来的持续性收入增长；其次是AI聊天机器人之间的流量入口争夺战，主要互联网 企业正加速抢占AI时代的流量关口，以便未来生态系统的变现；最后是垂直领域的玩家透过自主训练 的专有数据AI代理，保持领先地位并加强用户黏性与变现潜力。 ...

Core Insights - The overall cultural and tourism market in China during the 2026 New Year holiday was stable and orderly, with significant consumer activity [1][2] - Domestic travel reached 142 million trips, generating a total expenditure of 84.789 billion yuan [1][2] - Popular travel trends included family trips, small town tourism, and outbound travel, contributing to a strong start for the tourism market [1][2] Domestic Travel Trends - Data from Qunar indicated a 26% year-on-year increase in flight bookings to popular destinations on January 1, with hotel occupancy in domestic hotspots rising by 120% [3] - Consumer spending power increased, with a more than 20% rise in the number of items purchased per person and over 30% growth in average spending [3] - Family travel saw an 80% increase in participation, with families preferring high-star hotels and full-service resorts [3] - Small town tourism remained popular, with significant order growth for destinations like Anji (930%), Qingyuan (774%), and others [3] Outbound Travel Growth - There was a notable increase in outbound travel compared to the previous year, with a 40% rise in the number of travelers visiting popular countries [4] Hainan Tourism Surge - Hainan experienced a significant increase in tourism during the New Year holiday, marking the first holiday after its border reopening [5] - The province welcomed 2.1716 million visitors, a 25.2% increase year-on-year, with total tourism expenditure reaching 3.136 billion yuan, up 28.9% [5] - Duty-free shopping in Hainan saw a remarkable rise, with sales of duty-free goods increasing by 52.4% and total spending reaching 712 million yuan, a 128.9% increase [5][6] International Visitor Trends - The New Year holiday attracted more foreign tourists to China, with a 110% increase in ticket bookings for inbound tourism [7] - Popular destinations for international visitors included major cities like Shanghai, Beijing, and Shenzhen, with significant growth in Hainan [7] - The "duty-free shopping + beach vacation" model has become a key attraction for international tourists, with inbound orders for Sanya increasing by 170% [7]