不过，"3000万辆中国车利润不如丰田"的观点，确实折射出当前我国汽车产业规模与效益的失衡问题， 暴露出产业在转型升级中的深层矛盾。以比亚迪、长城汽车等18家主要上市车企为例，去年其净利润总 和不到800亿元，仅相当于丰田的三分之一。更尴尬的是，丰田每卖一辆汽车能赚2.3万元，而自主品牌 平均单车利润不到其一半，很值得深思。 造车规模与效益失衡的原因不难分析。首先，中国车企众多，竞争激烈。去年我国具有整车生产资质的 企业超过200家，经营主体过多，企业质量良莠不齐。由于历史原因，一些落后企业应退未退，通过低 价策略维持基本生存，挤压优质企业生存空间。车企"以价换量"策略虽拉动销量增长，却牺牲了利润。 这也是当前我国汽车市场之所以深陷"内卷式"竞争的重要原因。 其次，产业转型不同步，燃油车利润压缩，"智电"投入短期仍难以盈利。当前，虽然我国大部分传统车 企处在盈利期，但面对行业油转电进程加快，燃油车利润空间不断被压缩，而电动化与智能化投入 又"一点都不能少"。"一减一增"之间，我国车企整体利润难免受影响。相反，由于丰田早年传统混动车 型的技术投入正处于市场回报期，对新能源投入较为保守。因此，其利润处于高位不难理 ...

The Trump administration and Japan struck a trade deal that was better than feared.Shares of Toyota Motor (TM -1.65%) rallied 11.8% this week, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence.Toyota didn't have any major company-specific news this week, as it doesn't report Q2 earnings until Aug. 7. However, there was big news on the trade front, with the Trump administration and Japan inking a trade deal that would put milder-than-expected tariffs on Japanese imports, including Toyota cars.Will recent ...

日本汽车工业等来了期待中的转机。 7 月23 日，当日本首相石破茂宣布美国汽车关税已从当前的25%降至15%。消息一出，立即引发日本车 企股价集体飙升，本田汽车股价跃升超8%，日产汽车涨幅超8%，丰田汽车大涨近12%，三菱汽车涨幅 突破13%，马自达汽车更是狂飙逾17%。 就连韩国现代汽车股价也因此消息上涨超6%，起亚汽车微涨0.2%。 这是场历时近两个月的艰难谈判。3 月26 日美国总统特朗普宣布将对所有进口汽车征收25%关税，叠加 基础关税后总税率达到27.5%。丰田等日本汽车公司股价随即进入下跌通道。 据海关数据显示，2024年汽车出口占日本对美出口总额的28.3%，汽车工业是日本经济的重要支柱，在 电子、家电等行业被中韩日渐赶超的趋势下，汽车工业甚至可以说是日本的"镇国支柱"。 虽然出发点不同，但丰田掌门人丰田章男同样反对纯电动化的脱碳转型路线。 从90年代起，丰田就大力发展混动车型。新能源时代，在智能化速度上略显缓慢的丰田将日系车的高保 值度和性价比发挥到极致，靠着"全球生产、区域销售"的经典模式，在缺乏政策大力支持的情况下， 2024年丰田混动车型RAV4以118.7万辆的全球销量实现了对特斯拉M ...

美国的港口停放的本田的汽车（reuters） 按各家企业来看，丰田的影响金额将从1.6万亿日元压缩至8720亿日元。本田从5600亿日元减至3052亿 日元，日产汽车也将从4700亿日元减至2561亿日元，预计负担将减轻近一半。 斯巴鲁（SUBARU）和马自达等在美国依赖进口的比例较高的企业，预计将避免造成经营危机的打 击。斯巴鲁销量的7成来自美国，其中约半数从日本进口。此前有观点担忧关税将对营业利润最多造成 3600亿日元左右的负担增加，令盈利几乎消失。 日本各家车企为了缓解关税影响，已开始重组供应链。本田已决定将面向美国市场的"CIVIC（思 域）"的混合动力车（HV）的生产从日本改成当地。 在美国没有工厂的三菱汽车决定由日产提供OEM（贴牌生产）。不过，SBI证券的首席执行分析师远藤 功治指出："向美国转移生产的可能性已降低"。 美国将把今年春季刚刚提高到27.5%的对日本的汽车进口关税下调到15%。据估算，日本7家大型车企合 计的关税负担将因此减少约1.6万亿日元。不过，与截至今年春季仅为2.5%的关税相比，高关税将趋于 固定，前景并不乐观…… 美国将把今年春季刚刚提高到27.5%的对日本的汽车进口关 ...

中山淳史：丰田的强大源于持续降低成本的努力，竞争力被认为来源于在丰田市周边工作的数万名员工 的共同努力，依赖于产业聚集地的合作关系，要想维持这些相关就业和环境，需要在日本国内生产300 万辆…… 中山淳史： 美国特朗普关税带来的混乱再次暴露了日本产业结构的特点和问题，尤其是对汽车产业的 依赖度之高。 "今后仍要抓好出口，赚取外汇，支撑能源进口"，丰田社长佐藤恒治等人在5月8日的财报发布会上说的 话正好体现了这一点。日本每年进口相当25万亿日元的能源，而汽车和零部件出口也相当于约20万亿日 元。所以有观点指出日本的汽车出口正好平衡能源支出。 特别是截至2025年3月底的一年内，丰田在日本国内生产了323万辆汽车，近三分之二出口到了美国等海 外市场。从营业利润来看，日本市场占到整体的66%，超过了销量更多的北美市场。 丰田并不是按这个比例来缴纳税款。但也有一些厂商在实际销售的国家和地区多计算利润，而丰田则与 众不同，以产地为中心进行思考。 "日本重视就业"的观念面临考验 虽然并未体现在损益表上，但出口企业存在"消费税退税金"的巨大也是丰田的一个特点。实际上，即使 消费地在海外，制造出口车时，日本国内的零部件、材料 ...

协议的签订并非一帆风顺，其背后是日本首相石破茂在巨大政治压力下的无奈之举。执政联盟在参议院选举中的惨败，支持率跌至历史冰点的 22.9%，民众对其强烈的不满，以及自民党内麻生派的步步紧逼，都将石破茂逼到了悬崖边。特朗普在7月初发出的威胁信，直指日本"骗了美国 四十年"，并扬言将在8月1日对日本商品征收25%的关税，更是雪上加霜。 面对如此强烈的压力，石破茂政府最终选择在不到两周的时间内举起 了白旗，签署了这份被许多人形容为"持枪抢劫"的协议。 全球震荡：美日贸易协议引发的多米诺骨牌效应 东京大学经济学教授中村的预言如同阴云般笼罩着全球经济：当所有盟友都签署了"不平等条约"，美国的枪口将只指向唯一站立的国家。 而这个 预言，似乎正因一份5500亿美元的惊天美日贸易协议而迅速逼近现实。这份协议的签订，如同在平静的国际贸易水面投下了一颗巨型炸弹，激起 滔天巨浪，其冲击波早已超越太平洋，席卷全球。 协议的核心条款残酷而现实：美国将对日本输美商品的关税从威胁中的25%下调至15%，但这一看似"优惠"的数字背后，隐藏着巨大的陷阱。对 日本汽车的关税，由2.5%的基础税加上新增的12.5%，最终达到15%；钢铁和铝产品则仍 ...

证券研究报告 2025年07月25日 行业报告： 行业深度研究 乘用车 摘要 丰田出海北美，快速实现品牌高端化转型 布局：本土品牌形象固化，日本高端化受阻。抓住石油危机机遇，借助低贸易壁垒与经济型豪华车需求缺口，设立全新豪华车品牌雷克萨斯 初试北美破局。面对贸易限制灵活调整策略，以高产品附加值应对出口数量限制，后从整车出口转向对外投资，进一步降低成本，巩固海外 市场地位。 乘用车专题：复盘丰田高端化，对比亚迪有何启示 作者： 分析师 王彬宇 SAC执业证书编号：S1110523070005 分析师 孙潇雅 SAC执业证书编号：S1110520080009 1 行业评级： 上次评级： 强于大市 强于大市 维持 （ 评级） 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和免责申明 研发：国际化团队精准剖析北美客户需求，投入10亿美元研发 LS 400;前后生产450辆原型车，经历近千次发动机设计、超170万英里测试以 保证速度和可靠性；严格保持轻量化避免"油老虎税"；从源头解决噪音问题，实现动力性能与静谧性的完美平衡，凭借差异化取胜。 营销：高脚杯广告树立雷克萨斯快速舒适的高端汽车品牌形象，快速提升影响力，成为快速舒适高性价比汽车 ...

Toyota Motor says it hopes for improved ties between the US and Japan, going as far as to call for further tariff reductions a day after President Donald Trump announced a much-awaited trade pact with the island nation https://t.co/KHSLUVI3D5 ...

Group 1: Market Trends - The paper sector continues its upward trend, with Nine Dragons Paper (02689.HK) leading the gains, rising over 9% after announcing a price increase of 30 CNY/ton for corrugated paper and recycled cardboard starting August 1, reflecting an optimized supply-demand structure in the industry [1] - The brokerage sector saw collective strength, with major Chinese brokerages like Dongfang Securities (03958.HK) and Zhongyuan Securities (01375.HK) rising over 6% and 5% respectively, indicating significant capital inflow into the sector [1] - Urban Beauty (02298.HK) surged 13% as its online GMV for 2024 is projected to reach 1.57 billion CNY, marking a 100% year-on-year increase, showcasing the effectiveness of its new retail transformation [1] Group 2: Company Performance - China Duty Free Group (01880.HK) soared 17% after Macquarie's report indicated a narrowing year-on-year revenue decline from 19.5% in Q4 2024 to 11% in Q1 2025, with a stable gross margin of 33% [1] - The gaming sector experienced a broad increase, with companies like 澳博控股 (00880.HK) and 银河娱乐 (00027.HK) rising over 3%, supported by UBS data showing Macau's average daily gaming revenue in July at 683 million MOP, a 14% year-on-year increase [2] - 雍禾医疗 (02279.HK) saw a 13% increase after forming a strategic partnership with Meituan Health to build a medical-grade hair health service system [2] Group 3: Real Estate and Financing - The Hong Kong real estate sector collectively strengthened, with Country Garden (02007.HK) leading with nearly a 10% rise, driven by improved financing conditions as indicated by the People's Bank of China's report showing a recovery in real estate loan growth [3] - Meilan Airport (0357.HK) rose 10% as CITIC Securities highlighted the significance of Hainan's trade opening, which is expected to benefit the local tourism industry [3] Group 4: Gold Sector Decline - The gold sector faced pressure, with companies like 潼关黄金 (00340.HK) and 大唐黄金 (08331.HK) dropping over 4%, attributed to a decline in spot gold prices below 3,380 USD/oz, driven by reduced safe-haven appeal due to easing trade tensions [4] Group 5: US Market Highlights - Futu Holdings (FUTU.US) rose 2.82% after announcing a long-term strategic partnership with Huaxia Fund to promote the integration of traditional finance and blockchain technology [5] - Japanese automotive stocks surged, with Toyota (TM.US) and Honda (HMC.US) rising over 13% following news of a trade agreement reducing tariffs on Japanese cars [6] - Nuclear power stocks in the US saw significant gains, with Oklo Inc (OKLO.US) rising 9.21%, reflecting a growing interest in nuclear energy [5]

Market Overview - The main U.S. equity indexes experienced modest gains, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average increasing by 1.1% to 45,010, the S&P 500 rising by 0.8% to 6,358, and the Nasdaq Composite up by 0.6% to 21,020 [7][8] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is set for July 29-30, during which the latest policy statement will be released [6] Housing Market - The National Association of Realtors reported a decline in housing sales as home prices reached record highs in June, indicating affordability challenges [5] - President Trump criticized Fed Chair Jerome Powell for the slow housing market, attributing it to the refusal to lower interest rates [2] Treasury Yields - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note increased to 4.388% from 4.336%, while the 2-year note rose to 3.886% from 3.831% [6][7] - The 30-year yield approached the significant 5% level, rising to 4.944% from 4.903% [7] Company Highlights - GE Vernova (GEV) stock surged by 14.6% after reporting second-quarter earnings that exceeded expectations and raising its full-year guidance [10] - Analyst Julien Dumoulin-Smith raised the 12-month target price for GEV from $427 to $565, despite previous concerns about valuation [10] - Among analysts tracked by S&P Global Market Intelligence, 24 rate GEV a Buy, 8 a Hold, and 1 a Sell, with an average 12-month target price of $511.75 [11] Automotive Sector - Japanese automakers Honda Motor (HMC) and Toyota Motor (TM) saw significant gains of 13.1% and 13.7%, respectively, following a tariff deal announced by President Trump [12] - Domestic automakers also benefited, with GM stating it would not raise prices to offset tariff impacts [13] Nuclear Energy Investment - Oklo (OKLO) stock rose by 9.3% after announcing a partnership with Vertiv Holdings (VRT) to develop power and cooling systems for AI data centers [14] - Oklo is focused on developing advanced fission power plants to provide clean energy at scale [15]