每经AI快讯，1月15日，美股半导体设备股夜盘集体拉升，阿斯麦涨超5%，台积电、应用材料涨超 4%。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

Core Viewpoint - TSMC is experiencing strong and sustained demand for AI, with accelerated adoption of AI model applications, leading to significant capacity expansion efforts to meet customer needs [1] Group 1: Demand and Capacity - TSMC has received strong signals of demand from customers who are directly seeking capacity support [1] - The company is fully committed to expanding its production capacity to support this demand [1] Group 2: Revenue Growth - TSMC projects a nearly 30% increase in revenue by 2026 when calculated in USD [1]

Core Insights - The global AI arms race is hitting a physical wall due to TSMC's production capacity constraints, leading to a significant supply-demand gap in the semiconductor industry [1] - Major tech companies like NVIDIA and Google are struggling to secure sufficient chip supply from TSMC, which is currently unable to meet the surging demand [2] - TSMC's production lines are under pressure from both AI chip demand and traditional client orders, complicating capacity allocation [3] Group 1: Demand Surge and Allocation Challenges - TSMC is facing a difficult balancing act between maintaining stability for existing clients and addressing the unpredictable demand from the AI sector [3] - The demand for chips is driven by multiple factors, including OpenAI's plans for super data centers and Google's aggressive procurement of NVIDIA GPUs [3] - TSMC adheres to strict annual schedules for capacity and pricing negotiations, limiting flexibility for clients to adjust orders based on market conditions [3] Group 2: Expansion Plans and Limitations - TSMC is adjusting its global footprint to address capacity shortages, including shifting a new factory in Japan to produce advanced 2nm chips, expected to be completed by 2027 [4] - The company is accelerating the construction of a second factory in Arizona, aiming to start 3nm chip production a year earlier than planned in 2027 [4] - Current expansion efforts will not resolve immediate capacity issues, as TSMC is primarily redesigning existing factory space to accommodate new production lines [4] Group 3: Investment Caution Amid Cyclical Nature - Despite the booming AI demand, TSMC is cautious about committing to new factory constructions due to the cyclical nature of the semiconductor industry [6] - Building a cutting-edge fab costs billions and takes years, while demand can fluctuate rapidly, as seen during the pandemic [6] - TSMC's pure foundry model limits its investment flexibility, as it relies entirely on customer orders and faces risks of idle capacity if clients cancel orders [6] Group 4: Packaging Bottlenecks - Advanced packaging has emerged as another critical bottleneck, essential for high-end AI chips [7] - TSMC has reallocated some older chip production capacity to advanced packaging, but the complexity of the process remains a challenge [7] - NVIDIA has previously faced packaging capacity shortages, leading to difficulties for other clients like Google when trying to increase their orders [7]

IT之家 1 月 15 日消息，台积电今日公布 2025 年第四季财务报告，并公布了 2026 年第一季度业绩预 估。 台积电表示，2026 年的税率将维持在 17%—18%。 此外，台积电预计 2026 年资本支出 520 亿美元至 560 亿美元（现汇率约合 3632.55 亿元至 3911.98 亿元 人民币）。作为参考，台积电 2025 年资本支出总计 409 亿美元（现汇率约合 2857.14 亿元人民币）。 台积电还表示，未来三年资本支出将显著增加。 台积电预计 2026 年第一季度销售额 346 亿美元至 358 亿美元（IT之家注：现汇率约合 2417.04 亿元至 2500.87 亿元人民币），市场预估 332.2 亿美元。 台积电预计 2026 年第一季度营业利益率 54％至 56％，市场预估 49.7%；预计 2026 年第一季度毛利率 63％至 65％，市场预估 59.6％。 ...

市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 风险提示及免责条款 台积电：预计第一季度销售额346亿美元至358亿美元，市场预估332.2亿美元；预计第一季度毛利率 63％至65％，市场预估59.6％。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that TSMC reported strong financial results for Q4 2025, with significant year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter growth in revenue and net profit [1] - TSMC's consolidated revenue for Q4 2025 was approximately 1,046.09 billion NTD (about 230.66 billion RMB), representing a year-on-year increase of 20.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.7% [1] - The net profit for Q4 2025 was approximately 505.74 billion NTD (about 111.52 billion RMB), with earnings per share of 19.50 NTD (about 4.30 RMB), both showing a year-on-year growth of 35% [1] Group 2 - For the entire year of 2025, TSMC's cumulative revenue was approximately 38,090.54 billion NTD (about 839.90 billion RMB), which is an increase of 31.6% compared to the previous year [2] - In Q4 2025, the revenue from advanced processes (including 7nm and more advanced processes) accounted for 77% of the total wafer sales [1] - The shipment percentages for different process nodes in Q4 2025 were as follows: 3nm process accounted for 28%, 5nm process for 35%, and 7nm process for 14% of the wafer sales [3]

Core Insights - The world's largest contract chip maker achieved record earnings in Q4 2025 despite facing supply challenges and pressure from the U.S. government to relocate semiconductor production to the United States [1] Company Performance - The company reported another quarter of record earnings, indicating strong financial performance amidst ongoing supply chain issues [1] - The earnings growth reflects the company's ability to navigate market challenges effectively [1] Industry Context - The semiconductor industry is experiencing significant pressure from U.S. policies aimed at increasing domestic production [1] - Supply challenges continue to impact the industry, yet the leading contract chip maker has managed to maintain its competitive edge [1]

Unleash Innovation 2025 Fourth Quarter Earnings Conference January 15, 2026 © 2026 TSMC, Ltd 1 TSMC Property Unleash Innovation Agenda Unleash Innovation • Welcome Jeff Su, IR Director C.C. Wei, Chairman & CEO • Q&A © 2026 TSMC, Ltd 2 TSMC Property • Key Messages Wendell Huang, CFO • 4Q25 Financial Results and 1Q26 Outlook Wendell Huang, CFO Unleash Innovation Safe Harbor Notice © 2026 TSMC, Ltd 3 TSMC Property • TSMC's statements of its current expectations are forward-looking statements subject to signifi ...

Core Viewpoint - TSMC achieved strong performance growth in Q4 2025, with a net profit after tax increasing by 35% to NT$505.74 billion, driven by sustained demand for advanced process technologies [1] Financial Performance - TSMC's consolidated revenue for Q4 reached NT$1.05 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 20.5%, with earnings per share rising to NT$19.50 [1][3] - In USD terms, the quarterly revenue was $33.73 billion, reflecting a 25.5% year-on-year growth and a 1.9% quarter-on-quarter increase [1] - The company's gross margin climbed to 62.3%, and operating margin reached 54.0%, both at historical high levels [1] Capital Expenditure - TSMC's total capital expenditure for 2025 amounted to $40.9 billion [1] Advanced Process Technology - Advanced process technologies (including 7nm and more advanced nodes) have become the main revenue pillar for TSMC, accounting for 77% of total wafer sales for the quarter [4] - The share of the cutting-edge 3nm process shipments increased to 28%, indicating key customers are accelerating the transition to the latest technology nodes [4] - The 5nm process remains the largest single contributor, accounting for 35% of total sales, while the 7nm process holds a 14% share [4]

Group 1 - TSMC's 3nm process is expected to account for 28% of the company's wafer sales revenue in Q4 2025 [1] - The 5nm process will represent 35% of the total wafer sales revenue for the same quarter [1] - The 7nm process will contribute 14% to the overall wafer sales revenue in Q4 2025 [1] Group 2 - Overall, advanced processes (including 7nm and more advanced) will generate 77% of the total wafer sales revenue for the quarter [1]