北向资金持仓市值连续三个季度增长正在印证这份信心。业内普遍认为，2026年中国"慢牛"行情将持 续。在今年强劲表现之后，中国股市的估值仍低于全球同类市场，也远低于历史高点，估值具有上调潜 力。其中，中国科技股被视为全球股市中具有高确信度的板块。 看好中国经济，2027年底中国股市将上涨38% 日前，高盛发布的一则研报《2025年中国股市十大经验总结》引起市场关注。 报告指出，中国股市已实现连续两年上涨，牛市行情有望持续，只是步伐会放缓。"我们预测，到2027 年底中国股市将上涨38%，受到2026年和2027年分别为14%和12%的盈利增长以及约10%的估值修复潜 力的推动。" 2025年即将收官，2026年的中国机遇可期。 新京报贝壳财经记者梳理多家外资机构研报时发现，"把握中国机遇""将继续增持中国资产""超额回 报"等频繁出现。这些机构整体对中国2026年的市场前景保持乐观，并预测到2027年底中国股市有望上 涨38%。 在众多投资方向中，中国科技股成为外资机构一致看好的核心赛道。 瑞银明确呼吁投资者"把握中国机遇"，并指出，人工智能（AI）创新和相关支出，预计将推动中国科技 行业2026年盈利大幅增长 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Fourth Davos Global FOF Summit will take place in Davos, Switzerland from January 19 to January 23, 2026, hosted by the Global FOF Association, aiming to facilitate discussions among leading figures in the global fund of funds industry [2][25]. Group 1: Attendance Confirmation - Seven prominent European institutions have confirmed their attendance at the summit, including Postfinance Venture, LGT Bank, Redalpine Ventures, H Capital Ventures, and EMCORE Asset Management AG [3][6][8][13][19]. - Christian Renner from Postfinance confirmed participation, highlighting Postfinance's significant role in Switzerland's financial landscape with total assets of approximately CHF 102 billion and a net profit of around CHF 164 million for 2023 [4][5]. - Christian Friede from LGT Bank confirmed attendance, emphasizing LGT's focus on wealth management and sustainable investment solutions for high-net-worth individuals and institutions globally [6][7]. Group 2: Summit Highlights - The summit will feature over 100 leading figures from global funds and venture capital cities, discussing strategies for navigating economic cycles and exploring future directions for the fund industry [25][26]. - The Global FOF Association will release the "2025 World's Best FOF Investment Institutions List" during the summit, continuing its tradition of recognizing top investment institutions for six consecutive years [27][28]. - The event will provide a unique opportunity for participants to engage with leading global LPs, discussing investment logic and needs, particularly in the context of RMB and USD funds [29][31]. Group 3: Special Activities - Participants will experience scenic train rides in the Alps and engage in special forums, enhancing networking opportunities in a picturesque setting [33][36]. - The summit aims to foster dialogue between Chinese GPs and international LPs, with previous summits resulting in over USD 1 billion raised by domestic GPs [29][31].

【12月24日瑞银：日央行加息与美联储降息或难使美元兑日元显著下跌】瑞银表示，日本央行逐步加息 以及美联储明年温和降息，不太可能让美元兑日元大幅下跌。该行称，日本财政预算仍有相关忧虑，最 新预测显示基本收支赤字会持续，但债务占国内生产总值比率可能下降。瑞银关注接下来将公布的东京 消费物价指数、工业生产及工资数据，预测东京核心消费物价指数因电价下跌，将从11月按年2.8%放 缓至12月的2.6%，核心消费物价指数预计维持在2.8%。 本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 本文由 Al 算法生成,仅作参考,不涉投资建议,使用风险自担 和讯财经 和而不同 迅达天下 扫码查看原文 和讯猎报 12.24 14:33:15 周三 瑞银:日美利率调整或难使美元兑日 元大跌,CPI有变化 【12月24日瑞银:日央行加息与美联储降息或难使 美元兑日元显著下跌】瑞银表示,日本央行逐步加 息以及美联储明年温和降息,不太可能让美元兑日 元大幅下跌。该行称,日本财政预算仍有相关忧 虑,最新预测显示基本收支赤字会持续,但债务占 国内生产总值比率可能下降。瑞银关注接下来将公 布的东京消费物价指数、工业生产及工资数据, ...

Core Viewpoint - UBS believes that the gradual interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve's moderate rate cuts next year are unlikely to lead to a significant decline in the USD/JPY exchange rate [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Concerns regarding Japan's fiscal budget remain, with the latest forecast indicating that the primary balance deficit will persist [1] - The debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to decline [1] Group 2: Inflation and Price Data - The Tokyo core consumer price index is predicted to slow from a year-on-year rate of 2.8% in November to 2.6% in December due to falling electricity prices [1] - The core consumer price index is expected to remain at 2.8% [1] Group 3: Upcoming Data Releases - Attention is focused on the upcoming releases of Tokyo's consumer price index, industrial production, and wage data [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of integrating international perspectives with Chinese practices to empower the high-quality development of the capital market, as highlighted by UBS Securities' commitment to cultural construction and compliance in the financial sector [1][8]. Group 1: Cultural Foundation and Development - UBS Group has a unique corporate culture developed over 160 years, characterized by the "Three Keys to Success" (pillars, principles, and behaviors) that guide its operations [2]. - UBS Securities integrates this corporate culture into its business strategy, embedding the principles of compliance, integrity, professionalism, and stability into governance, strategic planning, and talent development [2][3]. - The company conducts various cultural initiatives, such as "Our Achievements Briefing" and "UBS China Culture Week," to promote discussions on cultural missions and risk management [2]. Group 2: Compliance and Risk Management - UBS Securities has launched the "Start with Me" initiative, a behavior risk and culture activity involving over 500 employees to enhance compliance awareness and responsibility [3]. - The company has implemented an internal coaching program aimed at developing leadership skills, with plans to train 11 internal coaches by 2025 [3]. Group 3: Market Engagement and Opportunities - UBS Securities acts as a bridge for foreign investors entering the Chinese market while providing domestic clients with access to international markets, supporting China's capital market reforms [4]. - The firm has participated in significant reforms, including the QFII system and the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, facilitating the integration of international experience with local practices [4]. - UBS Securities is committed to supporting high-quality tech companies in accessing international capital markets, thereby promoting global investment in Chinese innovation [4][5]. Group 4: Talent Development and Education - UBS Securities has initiated various programs to enhance financial literacy and talent integration, including the "UBS Financial Elite Challenge," which attracted 190 entries in 2025 [5]. - The company collaborates with universities to provide practical financial education, exemplified by the "UBS Financial Lecture Series" that has engaged 300 participants [5]. Group 5: Social Responsibility and Community Engagement - UBS Securities actively engages in social responsibility through the UBS Charity Foundation, which has funded over 70 projects benefiting more than 1.95 million people since its inception in 2018 [6]. - The firm supports rural revitalization efforts by partnering with impoverished counties to address educational and infrastructural challenges [6]. - Over half of the company's employees participated in volunteer activities in 2025, reflecting its commitment to community service [6]. Group 6: Sustainable Development and Future Outlook - UBS Group has established a comprehensive sustainability strategy aimed at supporting clients in transitioning to a low-carbon economy and addressing climate-related risks [7]. - The company aims to raise $1 billion for charitable initiatives and positively impact 26.5 million people through social influence projects [7]. - UBS Securities continues to focus on customer-centric innovation and risk management, reinforcing its commitment to the Chinese market and its long-term growth [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of integrating international perspectives with Chinese practices to empower the high-quality development of the capital market, highlighting UBS Securities' commitment to cultural construction as a strategic initiative for foreign financial institutions in China [1][2]. Group 1: Cultural Foundation and Development - UBS Securities has deeply inherited the essence of the group's corporate culture, integrating the "Three Keys to Success" with its business development strategy, embedding the principles of compliance, integrity, professionalism, and stability into governance and operations [2][3]. - The company conducts various cultural activities, such as "Our Results Briefing" and "UBS China Culture Week," to foster discussions on cultural missions and risk management, creating an open communication platform across departments [2][3]. Group 2: Contribution to Capital Market Reform - UBS Securities plays a significant role in China's capital market reform, participating in major institutional changes like the improvement of the QFII system and the design of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [3][4]. - The company supports high-quality tech enterprises in accessing international capital markets and promotes global capital participation in Chinese innovation [3][4]. Group 3: Talent Development Initiatives - UBS Securities has launched innovative initiatives to empower the future of the Chinese financial industry, including the "UBS Financial Elite Challenge," which attracted 190 entries, with 16 winners securing internships [4][5]. - The company collaborates with universities to enhance financial education, exemplified by the "UBS Financial Lecture Series" that has engaged 300 participants [4][5]. Group 4: Social Responsibility and Community Engagement - UBS Securities actively engages in social responsibility through the UBS Charity Foundation, focusing on children's health and education, with over 870 million RMB allocated to more than 70 projects benefiting over 1.95 million people [5][6]. - The company supports rural revitalization efforts by establishing partnerships with impoverished counties and encourages employee volunteerism, with over half of the staff participating in community service [6][7]. Group 5: Commitment to Sustainable Development - UBS Group has developed a comprehensive strategy for sustainable development, aiming to raise $1 billion for charitable funds and benefit 26.5 million people through social impact projects [6][7]. - The company emphasizes the transition to a low-carbon economy and considers climate change risks and opportunities for its clients and stakeholders [6][7].

Market Outlook - The market is expected to experience a period of clarity and normalization in 2026, following a foggy and uncertain 2025, which is reflected in current market highs [2][6] - The administration's policies, particularly regarding tariffs, have positively influenced GDP and market performance, contradicting previous doomsday scenarios [4][6] Risks and Challenges - Policy risks remain a concern, but the focus is shifting towards unforeseen risks that could impact market optimism [3][4] - Potential inflationary pressures from tariffs are anticipated in the first quarter, but they are considered manageable within a strong economy [5][6] Monetary Policy - There is ongoing discussion about the appropriateness of cutting rates next year, especially with current GDP levels, as the Fed is on a trajectory to lower rates [7][9] - The administration is exploring innovative fiscal reforms, which may influence future monetary policy and economic conditions [8][9] Economic Innovations - The potential for transformative technologies such as longevity, AI, and power is highlighted, suggesting that these innovations could lead to a robust economy and possibly higher interest rates in the future [9]

Key Takeaways UBS plans new round of job cuts in mid-January 2026, tied to the final phase of CS integration.UBS's merger with CS swelled the workforce to nearly 120,000, and it has already cut about 15,000 roles. UBS aims to complete IT migration by the end of 2026 and achieve up to $13 billion in cost savingsUBS Group AG (UBS) is planning to implement a new round of job cuts starting in mid-January 2026, according to a Yahoo Finance news report citing Bloomberg. The planned job cuts are part of ongoing wo ...

Core Insights - The new housing plan could have short-term, intermediate, and long-term impacts on affordability [1] - Short-term measures may include subsidizing mortgages and reducing G fees [2] - Intermediate strategies could involve encouraging younger individuals to enter trades through grants and scholarships [3] - Long-term solutions may require federal pressure on states to ease land restrictions, although local governance poses challenges [4][6] Short-term Measures - Utilizing Government-Sponsored Enterprises (GSEs) to subsidize mortgages and buy more mortgage-backed securities (MBS) [1] - Potential reduction of G fees by 60 basis points per loan [2] - Tariffs could be reduced, with an average of $9,300 per home, including $2,500 specifically on lumber [2] Intermediate Strategies - Encouraging workforce development in trades through grants and scholarships [3] - Potential for building on federal land, although infrastructure challenges exist [5] Long-term Solutions - Federal government could exert pressure on states to reduce land use restrictions [4] - Local and municipal decision-making complicates the implementation of these solutions [4][6] Affordability Impact - Lowering mortgage rates could improve housing affordability, as indicated by the National Association of Realtors affordability index [7] - Current mortgage rates compared to builder-subsidized rates show significant differences in affordability [8]

Core Viewpoint - The future performance of European and American bank stocks will increasingly depend on the sustainability of earnings rather than further valuation expansion [4]. Group 1: European Bank Stocks - European bank stocks have shown significant recovery in 2025, with the STOXX Europe 600 Banks index rising approximately 65% year-to-date, making it one of the best-performing sectors in Europe [1]. - Analysts suggest that the rise in European bank stocks is more of a structural recovery rather than a typical cyclical rebound, as their valuation levels were significantly lower than their U.S. counterparts prior to this increase [2]. - The negative impact of the prolonged low-interest-rate environment on European banks' profitability has been a key factor suppressing their valuations [2]. - Major European banks have seen substantial stock price increases, with Deutsche Bank up about 97%, HSBC up approximately 48%, BNP Paribas up around 35%, and UBS up about 30% year-to-date [2]. Group 2: American Bank Stocks - American bank stocks have demonstrated more stable performance in 2025, with notable increases such as Citigroup up about 68%, Goldman Sachs up approximately 57%, and JPMorgan Chase up around 35% [5]. - The core strength of the U.S. banking system lies in its profitability and diversified business structure, which helps mitigate traditional credit cycle fluctuations [5]. - The valuation recovery for U.S. banks began earlier than for European banks, with the market already pricing in expectations of an economic soft landing and interest rate cuts [5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - For 2026, the consensus is shifting from "valuation recovery" to "earnings verification," with European banks needing to see a substantial recovery in credit demand and a reduction in geopolitical risks to maintain their strong performance [6]. - In the U.S., the focus will be on the Federal Reserve's policy path, with large banks expected to maintain capital returns if interest rate cuts are gradual and the economy achieves a soft landing [6]. - The bank stock market in 2026 is expected to be more selective, requiring investors to pay closer attention to earnings quality, risk management, and structural differences between markets [6].