Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs analysts have raised their gold price forecast to $5,400 per troy ounce by December 2026, citing increased private sector investment in gold as a key driver of this upward trend [1][2]. Group 1: Price Forecast and Market Dynamics - The forecast for gold prices has been increased from $4,900 to $5,400 per troy ounce due to private sector diversification into gold becoming a reality [1]. - Private sector buyers are expected to hold onto their gold investments this year, contributing to sustained elevated prices [2]. - Central bank purchases have significantly influenced gold price increases in 2023 and 2024, with a notable acceleration in the rally since 2025 as institutions compete for limited bullion with private investors [2]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The "debasement theme" has played a role in driving gold prices higher, with high-net-worth families increasing their physical gold purchases and heightened investor activity in call options [3]. - Geopolitical events have historically led to spikes in gold prices, with recent events such as the US capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro and tariff threats from President Trump contributing to market movements [4][7]. Group 3: Investment Strategy and Recommendations - UBS strategists suggest that gold has proven its value during times of geopolitical risk, recommending a mid-single-digit allocation in a balanced USD portfolio for investors interested in this asset class [7]. - UBS has set a price target of $5,000 per troy ounce for gold, with potential upside to $5,400 if geopolitical tensions escalate [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that Japanese government bond yields have recently experienced fluctuations, with a notable decline from historical highs, as investors await the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision and potential hawkish statements from Governor Kazuo Ueda [1][2][3] - The 10-year Japanese government bond yield fell by 4 basis points to 2.24%, while the 30-year yield decreased by 10 basis points to 3.67%, reflecting a rebound after excessive selling earlier in the week [1] - UBS reports that the rise in Japanese bond yields is primarily driven by market expectations of future interest rate increases and an increase in term premiums, with the 30-year yield rising over 40 basis points since the beginning of the year [2] Group 2 - Foreign investors have significantly reduced their holdings in the Japanese bond market, nearly halving their investments as global yields rise, while the Bank of Japan's share of outstanding bonds has fallen below 50% for the first time in eight years [2] - UBS suggests that if the Bank of Japan responds hawkishly to fiscal expansion, the yield curve for 10 to 30-year bonds may flatten, potentially providing better entry points for investors after uncertainties surrounding elections and monetary policy are resolved [3] - Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank plans to double its domestic sovereign debt holdings once market yields stabilize, currently holding approximately 10.6 trillion yen (about 67 billion USD) [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of recent U.S. actions and rhetoric under President Trump, particularly regarding Europe, and emphasizes the need for Europe to strengthen its financial independence and investment at home in response to U.S. pressures [1][2][9]. Economic Context - Europe is urged to invest more of its vast savings domestically, as reliance on the U.S. economy and its capital markets poses risks, especially given the current political climate [2][11]. - The U.S. is identified as the world's largest debtor nation, relying on foreign capital, including significant European investments, to fund its deficits [6][9]. Investment Strategies - Joint borrowing within the eurozone is proposed as a means to create a safe asset that could rival U.S. Treasuries, thereby enhancing Europe's financial strength [5][12]. - The article highlights the need for Europe to better integrate its capital markets and develop a larger pool of safe assets to compete with U.S. financial instruments [12][15]. Market Reactions - The article notes that Trump's tariff threats led to market volatility, but his quick reversal indicates a vulnerability in U.S. policy and a potential leverage point for Europe [7][8]. - European investors have historically benefited from capital exports to the U.S., but the current political climate may necessitate a reevaluation of this strategy [10][15]. Future Outlook - The article suggests that ongoing tensions and unpredictability in U.S. policies could drive European investors to diversify away from U.S. assets, although this process may take time [11][15]. - The need for Europe to bolster its military and infrastructure spending is highlighted as a way to increase the supply of European bonds, which could help stem capital outflows [12][15].

瑞士当地时间 2 0 2 6年1月1 9日，主题为"A Sp irit o f Di a l o g u e "的2 0 2 6年世界经济论坛年会在 达沃斯盛大开幕。1月2 0日，中共中央政治局委员、国务院副总理何立峰在瑞士达沃斯出席世 界经济论坛2 0 2 6年年会并发表致辞。何立峰表示，2 0 1 7年1月，习近平主席在达沃斯论坛发表 重要讲话，中国认真落实，坚定支持多边主义和自由贸易。近年来，习近平主席相继提出四大 全球倡议，为解决世界面临的共同问题提供了中国方案。何立峰在论坛致辞中提出四点看法： 一要坚定支持自由贸易，携手推动普惠包容的经济全球化。二要坚定维护多边主义，推动完善 更加公正合理的国际经贸秩序。三要坚持合作共赢，致力共同做大合作蛋糕，合力破解发展难 题。四要坚持相互尊重、平等协商，善用对话妥善管控分歧、解决问题。何立峰还介绍了中共 二十届四中全会情况，强调中国发展将为世界带来重要机遇，并与国际工商界人士深入交流。 瑞士当地时间 2 0 2 6年1月2 1日下午，第四届达沃斯全球母基金峰会在瑞士达沃斯的Ho t e l Str e l a酒店成功举办。本届峰会由全球母基金协会、中国国际科技促 ...

Group 1 - UBS believes that the recent rise in Japanese government bond yields reflects market expectations for future policy rate increases and an increase in term premium, rather than just the anticipated rise in policy rates [1] - The report indicates that the rise in Japanese government bond yields is closely related to uncertainties in fiscal policy, with market expectations for long-term policy rates being difficult to gauge [4] - UBS's analysis shows that the volatility in the Japanese government bond market has not yet created a sustained spillover effect on global markets, despite a significant rise in yields [7] Group 2 - Foreign investors have significantly reduced their holdings in the Japanese government bond market, nearly halving their investments as global yields rise [8] - UBS suggests that investors may find better entry points for Japanese government bonds after the elections and the resolution of monetary policy uncertainties [12] - Overall, the report emphasizes the complexity of the Japanese government bond market under the dual influence of fiscal and monetary policies, with fiscal expansion being the main driver of rising yields [12]

格隆汇1月22日｜花旗集团将瑞银集团目标股价从34瑞士法郎上调至37.7瑞士法郎。 ...

Group 1 - Current policy uncertainties, such as threats to Greenland and rising Japanese bond yields, are driving up global sovereign debt yields, benefiting gold as a primary asset [2] - Japanese 10-year government bond yields have reached the upper limit of their range, linked to rising U.S. rates, which suppress risk appetite and increase gold demand [2] - The focus of the market is expected to shift from technology to commodities (energy, materials) and small-cap stocks by 2026, with these sectors showing strong recent performance [2] Group 2 - The latest gold price is reported at 1073.71 yuan per gram, down 7.79 yuan or 0.72% from the previous trading day, indicating a weak oscillating trend [1] - The trading range for gold today has seen a high of 1081.80 yuan per gram and a low of 1068.21 yuan per gram, reflecting market volatility [1] - The current market is characterized by a wide oscillating rhythm, with key support levels identified around 4750 yuan per gram [3]

2026.01.22 作者 |第一财经 陈玺宇 封图 |等待进入特朗普讲话会场的观众（记者陈玺宇摄） 2026年1月21日，瑞士达沃斯。 一场演讲与一个投资决定 海菲尔提到的第一个背景，并非来自金融市场，而是政治叙事。 本文字数：1983，阅读时长大约3分钟 美国总统特朗普时隔数年后再次出席达沃斯论坛，并发表了特别讲话。随后，在与北约秘书长吕特会晤 后，特朗普称，暂时不会按原定计划向反对美国得到格陵兰岛的欧洲八国加征关税。 同一天，第一财经记者来到瑞银集团位于达沃斯小镇的办事处，采访瑞银财富管理全球首席投资总监马 克·海菲尔（Mark Haefele）。达沃斯论坛期间，瑞银集团高层代表常常在这栋低调的小楼里，同来自全 球各地的投资人与合作伙伴进行交流。 围绕美国、格陵兰岛和其他地缘政治局势的讨论在本届达沃斯论坛期间不曾断绝。此前一天，丹麦公共 投资机构"学界养老基金"宣布，将在本月底前抛售价值1亿美元的美国国债，在会场内外引发了不小的 讨论。 在海菲尔看来，这一事件本身并不足以动摇美国国债市场，但它所折射出的，却是全球投资者正在"边 际层面"重新审视美国资产敞口的现实。 "从某种意义上说，美国未来可能会成为自 ...

2026.01. 22 本文字数：1983，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 陈玺宇 一场演讲与一个投资决定 封图 | 等待进入特朗普讲话会场的观众（记者陈玺宇摄） 2026年1月21日，瑞士达沃斯。 美国总统特朗普时隔数年后再次出席达沃斯论坛，并发表了特别讲话。随后，在与北约秘书长吕特会 晤后，特朗普称，暂时不会按原定计划向反对美国得到格陵兰岛的欧洲八国加征关税。 同一天，第一财经记者来到瑞银集团位于达沃斯小镇的办事处，采访瑞银财富管理全球首席投资总监 马克·海菲尔（Mark Haefele）。达沃斯论坛期间，瑞银集团高层代表常常在这栋低调的小楼里，同 来自全球各地的投资人与合作伙伴进行交流。 围绕美国、格陵兰岛和其他地缘政治局势的讨论在本届达沃斯论坛期间不曾断绝。此前一天，丹麦公 共投资机构"学界养老基金"宣布，将在本月底前抛售价值1亿美元的美国国债，在会场内外引发了不 小的讨论。 在海菲尔看来，这一事件本身并不足以动摇美国国债市场，但它所折射出的，却是全球投资者正 在"边际层面"重新审视美国资产敞口的现实。 "从某种意义上说，美国未来可能会成为自身成功的受害者。"海菲尔说。 海菲尔提到的第一个背景 ...

"过去几年里，黄金和大宗商品的强势表现，某种程度上反映了资金逐步远离美元资产的过程。" 2026年1月21日，瑞士达沃斯。 美国总统特朗普时隔数年后再次出席达沃斯论坛，并发表了特别讲话。随后，在与北约秘书长吕特会晤 后，特朗普称，暂时不会按原定计划向反对美国得到格陵兰岛的欧洲八国加征关税。 同一天，第一财经记者来到瑞银集团位于达沃斯小镇的办事处，采访瑞银财富管理全球首席投资总监马 克·海菲尔（Mark Haefele）。达沃斯论坛期间，瑞银集团高层代表常常在这栋低调的小楼里，同来自全 球各地的投资人与合作伙伴进行交流。 围绕美国、格陵兰岛和其他地缘政治局势的讨论在本届达沃斯论坛期间不曾断绝。此前一天，丹麦公共 投资机构"学界养老基金"宣布，将在本月底前抛售价值1亿美元的美国国债，在会场内外引发了不小的 讨论。 在海菲尔看来，这一事件本身并不足以动摇美国国债市场，但它所折射出的，却是全球投资者正在"边 际层面"重新审视美国资产敞口的现实。 "从某种意义上说，美国未来可能会成为自身成功的受害者。"海菲尔说。 一场演讲与一个投资决定 海菲尔提到的第一个背景，并非来自金融市场，而是政治叙事。 在达沃斯论坛期间，加拿大 ...