"过去几年里，黄金和大宗商品的强势表现，某种程度上反映了资金逐步远离美元资产的过程。" 2026年1月21日，瑞士达沃斯。 美国总统特朗普时隔数年后再次出席达沃斯论坛，并发表了特别讲话。随后，在与北约秘书长吕特会晤 后，特朗普称，暂时不会按原定计划向反对美国得到格陵兰岛的欧洲八国加征关税。 同一天，第一财经记者来到瑞银集团位于达沃斯小镇的办事处，采访瑞银财富管理全球首席投资总监马 克·海菲尔（Mark Haefele）。达沃斯论坛期间，瑞银集团高层代表常常在这栋低调的小楼里，同来自全 球各地的投资人与合作伙伴进行交流。 围绕美国、格陵兰岛和其他地缘政治局势的讨论在本届达沃斯论坛期间不曾断绝。此前一天，丹麦公共 投资机构"学界养老基金"宣布，将在本月底前抛售价值1亿美元的美国国债，在会场内外引发了不小的 讨论。 在海菲尔看来，这一事件本身并不足以动摇美国国债市场，但它所折射出的，却是全球投资者正在"边 际层面"重新审视美国资产敞口的现实。 "从某种意义上说，美国未来可能会成为自身成功的受害者。"海菲尔说。 一场演讲与一个投资决定 海菲尔提到的第一个背景，并非来自金融市场，而是政治叙事。 在达沃斯论坛期间，加拿大 ...

Core Viewpoint - Zurich Insurance Group AG has made a £7.67 billion ($10.3 billion) bid to acquire Beazley Plc, marking a significant move in the specialty insurance sector [1][2]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - Zurich has offered 1,280 pence per share in cash, representing a 56% premium over Beazley's closing price prior to the announcement [2]. - The acquisition would create a "global leader" in specialty insurance with approximately $15 billion in gross written premiums [2]. - This proposal is Zurich's fifth attempt to acquire Beazley over the past year, and it is the largest bid since CEO Mario Greco took over in 2016 [3]. Group 2: Market Reaction - Following the announcement, Beazley's shares surged by as much as 46%, reaching their highest level since the company's debut in 2002, while Zurich's shares fell by up to 1.9% [5]. - Beazley's board has yet to consider the latest bid, with some shareholders believing the offer still undervalues the company [4]. Group 3: Financial Performance - Beazley reported net insurance written premiums of $5.2 billion in 2024 and $2.6 billion in the first half of 2025, with a significant portion of its premium income derived from property, specialty, and cyber insurance [6]. - The company's share price more than doubled from 2021 to the end of 2025, driven by increased demand for cyber insurance [7]. Group 4: Strategic Implications - The acquisition aligns with Zurich's strategic priorities and is expected to be accretive to its 2027 financial targets [8]. - Zurich has until February 16 to announce a firm offer for Beazley, in accordance with UK takeover regulations [8]. Group 5: Advisory and Previous Acquisitions - Investment banks UBS, Goldman Sachs, and Lazard are advising Zurich on the Beazley bid, while Beazley's advisers include JPMorgan Cazenove and Barclays [11]. - Recent acquisitions by Zurich include a minority stake in Icen Risk, a global travel insurance business from AIG, and a majority stake in Kotak General Insurance in India [10].

在上海举办的第26届瑞银大中华研讨会上 ，奥运金牌得主、世界冠军张雨霏与来自瑞银慈善合作伙伴的学生交流互动。 张雨霏是中国杰出的游泳运动员，主项为蝶泳。她在东京2020年奥运会上获得两枚金牌，其中包括女子200米蝶泳金牌，并在巴黎2024年 奥运会上获得多枚奖牌，进一步巩固了其在国际泳坛的领先地位。张雨霏凭借其在国际游泳最高水平赛事中的稳定发挥和竞争实力备受泳 坛认可。 张雨霏此次参与的瑞银大中华研讨会已连续举办26届，致力于为客户提供对中国经济与市场发展的前瞻洞见。本届研讨会以"新前沿：识变 局, 谋增长"为主题，汇聚了超过3,600名与会嘉宾以及300多家中国领先企业代表， 围绕市场趋势、行业发展和长期机遇展开深入交流。 （CIS） 近日，奥运金牌得主、世界冠军张雨霏亮相在上海举行的第26届瑞银大中华研讨会（UBS Greater China Conference）。在一场炉边对话中，张雨霏回顾了 她在高水平竞技背后多年的坚持，分享了心理素质在赛场表现中的重要性，并探讨了如何通过持续学习和改进实现稳定发挥。 瑞银集团首席执行官安思杰（Sergio P. Ermotti）表示："我们非常欢迎张雨霏出席今年的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, surpassing $4800 per ounce, reflects a significant shift in global capital's perception of safe assets, driven by geopolitical tensions, inflation concerns, and the credibility of monetary policy [2][3][6] Group 1: Gold Price Movement - On January 20, spot gold prices broke through $4700 per ounce, reaching a record high of $4871.01 per ounce, with a current price of $4865 per ounce [2] - Domestic gold jewelry brands have also seen prices exceed 1495 yuan per gram, indicating a synchronized increase in gold prices across markets [2] - UBS has raised its gold price targets for March, June, and September 2026 from $4500 to $5000 per ounce, with a potential peak of $5400 per ounce if political or financial risks escalate [2] Group 2: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - The recent geopolitical tensions, including U.S. tariffs on Denmark and potential trade conflicts with the EU, have heightened market uncertainty and increased demand for gold as a safe haven [4] - The Federal Reserve's emphasis on maintaining its independence in monetary policy has been interpreted as a response to external pressures, further enhancing gold's appeal as a non-sovereign credit asset [3][4] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to clarify their investment goals; short-term trading in gold at current high prices may carry increased risks, while long-term allocation in gold can provide diversification and hedge against potential tail risks [5] - The shift of gold from a marginal safe-haven asset to a core strategic asset is evident, as global capital seeks stability amid rising debt and geopolitical fractures [6]

Group 1: Consumer Confidence and Market Trends - UBS believes that consumer confidence is improving, with a notable shift in preferences among consumers [3] - The firm conducted discussions with approximately 35 consumer companies and observed a recovery in consumer sentiment despite a short-term downturn in the real estate market [3] - UBS indicates that the valuation of the consumer sector remains attractive, being about one standard deviation below the 10-year average, and has not yet reflected the recovery in consumption [3] Group 2: Sector-Specific Insights - The snack industry is expected to benefit from category expansion and channel restructuring, presenting structural growth opportunities [6] - In the liquor sector, private consumption and potential easing of drinking bans for government institutions may support mid-range liquor demand, with companies accelerating channel transformation for sustainable long-term earnings growth [5] - The ready-to-drink beverage (FMB) segment is projected to capture market share from bottled beverages, driven by rapid store expansion and more efficient business models [5] Group 3: Dairy and Other Beverages - Despite resilience in fresh milk, liquid milk sales are expected to remain weak in 2025, with a slight recovery anticipated in 2026 due to improved raw milk supply and demand, alongside marketing and innovation efforts [5] - The beer segment is experiencing short-term consumption fatigue, but product diversification and home consumption channel expansion continue to drive premiumization [5] Group 4: Other Consumer Goods - The pet food sector shows confidence in domestic market growth despite varying overseas growth prospects [7] - The home appliance industry is expected to see higher growth overseas compared to the domestic market, with strategies to cope with rising material costs differing among companies [9] - In the jewelry sector, brands with differentiated product designs and craftsmanship may pursue consolidation following VAT reforms [10]

1月20日，国际金价在避险需求推动下再度刷新历史新高，伦敦金现货价格、COMEX黄金期货价格双 双突破4700美元/盎司。2026年以来，国际贵金属市场延续强势格局，铜价亦在高位运行。 随着全球宏观不确定性加剧，贵金属及基本金属的市场走势备受关注。瑞银贵金属策略师Joni Teves日 前在接受中国证券报记者专访时表示，多元化配置需求是本轮金价上行的核心驱动力，机构投资者、零 售投资者及各国央行均在增持黄金以应对宏观不确定性。她预计金价上半年仍有上攻动能，若市场对美 联储独立性的担忧持续升温，金价在上半年有望冲击5000美元/盎司关口。白银则受益于金价上涨的带 动及自身供需缺口收窄，今年或挑战100美元/盎司。铜市场在能源转型需求拉动下，供需格局趋紧，价 格中枢有望抬升。 金价后市仍有上涨空间 Teves表示，黄金市场正经历结构性变化，多元化配置已成为推动金价上涨的核心动力。这一趋势体现 在机构投资者、零售投资者和官方部门等各类需求主体。在宏观环境充满不确定性、政策可预测性下降 的当下，投资者迫切需要分散风险，而黄金正是这一趋势的最大受益者。 从价格走势看，瑞银对今年年末金价的基准预测为4500美元/盎司，但 ...

Group 1: Trump and International Relations - Trump suggested that his proposed peace committee could potentially replace the inefficient United Nations, while acknowledging that the UN could still assist in peacekeeping efforts [4][21] - Trump expressed skepticism about the UN's effectiveness, stating that it has never helped him resolve any wars, despite his hope that it could fulfill its potential [5][21] Group 2: Market Reactions - Wall Street experienced a significant downturn, with the S&P 500 index dropping over 2%, marking its largest single-day decline since October of the previous year, and erasing all gains made in the year [7][23] - The VIX index, a measure of market volatility, reached its highest level since November, while gold prices surged to over $4,700 per ounce, setting a new record [7][23] Group 3: Airline Industry - United Airlines reported strong demand for premium and economy tickets, projecting record profits for the year [9][25] - The airline expects adjusted earnings per share for 2026 to be between $12 and $14, aligning closely with analyst expectations of $13.16 [10][25] - United Airlines also reported a net profit of $3.5 billion for the previous year, reflecting a 6% year-over-year increase [10][25] Group 4: Media and Entertainment - Netflix has shifted to an all-cash offer to acquire Warner Bros.' studio and streaming assets, aiming to prevent Paramount from securing the deal [12][27] - The new cash offer of $27.75 per share received unanimous support from Warner Bros.' board [12][27] Group 5: Federal Reserve Leadership - The process of selecting a new Federal Reserve chair has become increasingly complex, with Trump expressing frustration over the current candidates [14][30] - Trump seeks a successor who is loyal, willing to implement significant interest rate cuts, and has credibility with both Wall Street and his political base [14][30] Group 6: Investment Strategies - UBS CEO Sergio Ermotti warned that selling U.S. assets and dollars is a "dangerous gamble," emphasizing that a complete withdrawal from U.S. investments is not feasible [16][32] - Ermotti highlighted the strength of the U.S. economy, stating that it remains the most powerful in the world [16][32]

(本文来自第一财经) 瑞银集团CEO塞尔吉奥·埃尔莫蒂表示，在地缘政治不确定性加剧的背景下，投资者若试图抛售美国资 产，将是在进行一场"危险的赌注"。埃尔莫蒂在瑞士达沃斯世界经济论坛期间指出："分散投资 却远离 美国（资产）是不现实的。美国是全球最强大的经济体，我不会押注其走弱。"周二，美国国债与标普 500指数股票同步遭到抛售，投资者正消化美国总统特朗普在推动格陵兰岛相关诉求过程中，与北约盟 友关系再度紧张的最新进展。与此同时，丹麦养老基金 AkademikerPension 计划在本月底前退出美国国 债市场。作为全球最大的财富管理机构，瑞银在美国市场与欧洲投资之间均有深度布局，管理资产规模 接近7万亿美元。 ...

1月20日，国际金价在避险需求推动下再度刷新历史新高，伦敦金现货价格、COMEX黄金期货价格双 双突破4700美元/盎司。2026年以来，国际贵金属市场延续强势格局，铜价亦在高位运行。 随着全球宏观不确定性加剧，贵金属及基本金属的市场走势备受关注。瑞银贵金属策略师Joni Teves日 前在接受中国证券报记者专访时表示，多元化配置需求是本轮金价上行的核心驱动力，机构投资者、零 售投资者及各国央行均在增持黄金以应对宏观不确定性。她预计金价上半年仍有上攻动能，若市场对美 联储独立性的担忧持续升温，金价在上半年有望冲击5000美元/盎司关口。白银则受益于金价上涨的带 动及自身供需缺口收窄，今年或挑战100美元/盎司。铜市场在能源转型需求拉动下，供需格局趋紧，价 格中枢有望抬升。 ● 本报记者 葛瑶 金价后市仍有上涨空间 在下行风险方面，Teves提示需关注三点：一是若美国公布一系列强劲经济数据，可能对金价形成阶段 性压力；二是若政治不确定性出现缓和迹象，可能触发获利了结；三是农历新年后实物需求进入传统淡 季，任何负面的宏观因素都可能导致金价出现较深回调。但她同时表示，金价下方存在支撑：各国央行 预计将继续逢低买入， ...

Core Insights - UBS CEO Sergio Ermotti indicated that there is no clear end to the volatility in financial markets, which he described as "quite abnormal" given the lack of significant market impact from recent trade tensions and conflicts [1][5] - Investors' risk appetite is reverting to historic norms, particularly in light of the White House's threats to impose tariffs on nations opposing U.S. control of Greenland [1][3] Market Sentiment - The level of news is beginning to affect client sentiments, with Ermotti noting that there is a threshold of news that can influence investor behavior [2] - The stock market experienced a rebound after a significant drop around Liberation Day last April, but it remains uncertain if the current volatility is merely short-term noise or indicative of a more substantial shift [2] Investor Behavior - Investors are becoming more cautious, opting to retain cash and diversify their portfolios carefully, as finding well-priced assets across any class is challenging [3] - Major stock indexes fell while gold and silver prices reached new highs, reflecting investor reactions to President Trump's comments regarding Greenland [3] Future Outlook - Ermotti expressed that skittishness among investors is unlikely to diminish until there are resolutions to ongoing trade disputes and geopolitical issues, stating that he does not foresee a path to normalization in the near future [4] - The continuation of volatility is expected until trade tensions, tariff issues, and geopolitical concerns, including those related to Greenland and Ukraine, are resolved [4]