Key Takeaways UBS plans new round of job cuts in mid-January 2026, tied to the final phase of CS integration.UBS's merger with CS swelled the workforce to nearly 120,000, and it has already cut about 15,000 roles. UBS aims to complete IT migration by the end of 2026 and achieve up to $13 billion in cost savingsUBS Group AG (UBS) is planning to implement a new round of job cuts starting in mid-January 2026, according to a Yahoo Finance news report citing Bloomberg. The planned job cuts are part of ongoing wo ...

Core Insights - The new housing plan could have short-term, intermediate, and long-term impacts on affordability [1] - Short-term measures may include subsidizing mortgages and reducing G fees [2] - Intermediate strategies could involve encouraging younger individuals to enter trades through grants and scholarships [3] - Long-term solutions may require federal pressure on states to ease land restrictions, although local governance poses challenges [4][6] Short-term Measures - Utilizing Government-Sponsored Enterprises (GSEs) to subsidize mortgages and buy more mortgage-backed securities (MBS) [1] - Potential reduction of G fees by 60 basis points per loan [2] - Tariffs could be reduced, with an average of $9,300 per home, including $2,500 specifically on lumber [2] Intermediate Strategies - Encouraging workforce development in trades through grants and scholarships [3] - Potential for building on federal land, although infrastructure challenges exist [5] Long-term Solutions - Federal government could exert pressure on states to reduce land use restrictions [4] - Local and municipal decision-making complicates the implementation of these solutions [4][6] Affordability Impact - Lowering mortgage rates could improve housing affordability, as indicated by the National Association of Realtors affordability index [7] - Current mortgage rates compared to builder-subsidized rates show significant differences in affordability [8]

Core Viewpoint - The future performance of European and American bank stocks will increasingly depend on the sustainability of earnings rather than further valuation expansion [4]. Group 1: European Bank Stocks - European bank stocks have shown significant recovery in 2025, with the STOXX Europe 600 Banks index rising approximately 65% year-to-date, making it one of the best-performing sectors in Europe [1]. - Analysts suggest that the rise in European bank stocks is more of a structural recovery rather than a typical cyclical rebound, as their valuation levels were significantly lower than their U.S. counterparts prior to this increase [2]. - The negative impact of the prolonged low-interest-rate environment on European banks' profitability has been a key factor suppressing their valuations [2]. - Major European banks have seen substantial stock price increases, with Deutsche Bank up about 97%, HSBC up approximately 48%, BNP Paribas up around 35%, and UBS up about 30% year-to-date [2]. Group 2: American Bank Stocks - American bank stocks have demonstrated more stable performance in 2025, with notable increases such as Citigroup up about 68%, Goldman Sachs up approximately 57%, and JPMorgan Chase up around 35% [5]. - The core strength of the U.S. banking system lies in its profitability and diversified business structure, which helps mitigate traditional credit cycle fluctuations [5]. - The valuation recovery for U.S. banks began earlier than for European banks, with the market already pricing in expectations of an economic soft landing and interest rate cuts [5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - For 2026, the consensus is shifting from "valuation recovery" to "earnings verification," with European banks needing to see a substantial recovery in credit demand and a reduction in geopolitical risks to maintain their strong performance [6]. - In the U.S., the focus will be on the Federal Reserve's policy path, with large banks expected to maintain capital returns if interest rate cuts are gradual and the economy achieves a soft landing [6]. - The bank stock market in 2026 is expected to be more selective, requiring investors to pay closer attention to earnings quality, risk management, and structural differences between markets [6].

Core Viewpoint - UBS Wealth Management projects a target of 7,700 for the S&P 500 by the end of 2026 [1] Group 1 - The target reflects a bullish outlook on the U.S. equity market over the next few years [1] - UBS's forecast indicates a significant increase from current levels, suggesting strong growth potential [1]

据香港交易所披露，瑞银集团（UBS）对中国平安保险(集团)股份有限公司 - H股的多头持仓比例于 2025年12月17日从8.99%增至9.02%。 本文源自：金融界AI电报 ...

据 香港交易所 披露，瑞银集团（UBS）对 中国平安 保险 (集团)股份有限公司- H股的多头持仓比例于 2025年12月17日从8.99%增至9.02%；对 宁德时代 新能源 科技股份有限公司- H股的多头持仓比例于 2025年12月17日从4.74%增至5.03%；对 中兴通讯 股份有限公司- H股的多头持仓比例于2025年12月17日 从9.04%降至8.98%。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on global equities, expecting a rise of around 15% by the end of 2026, driven by strong performance in sectors such as technology, healthcare, and utilities [125][126]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the potential of AI and innovation to drive market growth, suggesting that these trends could help economies achieve "escape velocity" from traditional economic constraints [5][27]. - It highlights the importance of capital expenditure (capex) in AI, projecting a cumulative USD 4.7 trillion in global AI capex between 2026 and 2030, with USD 571 billion expected in 2026 [58][70]. - The longevity market is anticipated to grow significantly, with annual revenues projected to reach USD 8 trillion by 2030, driven by advancements in healthcare and technology [90][91]. Summary by Sections Growth - AI-linked innovation is identified as a key driver of market performance, with IT and communication services stocks accounting for 36% of the MSCI AC World index [48][49]. - The report projects that AI can automate a third of tasks, potentially generating around USD 2 trillion in annual revenues from end-users [60][62]. Economic Backdrop - The economic outlook for 2026 is supportive, with expected real GDP growth of close to 2% in the US and over 1% in the Eurozone, driven by fiscal stimulus and improving consumer confidence [102][106]. - In Asia, growth is expected to remain robust at just under 5%, with China focusing on technology innovation and industrial upgrades [109][110]. Investment Opportunities - The report recommends allocating up to 30% of equity portfolios to structural growth ideas, particularly in AI, power and resources, and longevity sectors [70][96]. - Commodities are highlighted as attractive investments due to supply constraints and rising demand, with copper prices expected to exceed USD 13,000 per metric ton in 2026 [85][88]. Sector Focus - The US healthcare sector is expected to benefit from improved policy clarity and growing markets, particularly in obesity and oncology [128][129]. - Utilities are favored due to AI-driven power demand and ongoing infrastructure investments, with significant earnings growth anticipated [129][130]. Currency and Diversification - The report suggests favoring the euro and Australian dollar over the US dollar, anticipating that US rate cuts may weigh on the greenback [45][46]. - A diversified investment approach is recommended, including alternatives like hedge funds and private markets to mitigate risks [45][46].

转自：证券时报 外资重估中国资产。 据最新消息，高盛分析师表示，预计2026年，中国企业盈利可能增长14%，2027年或将增长12%，有助 于提振中国股市表现。另外，摩根士丹利、摩根大通和瑞银近日也相继发表了对中国股票的看涨观点。 资金方面，外资正持续扫货中国资产。据华泰证券的最新报告，截至12月20日，2025年以来全球投资于 中国资产的ETF累计获得831亿美元的资金净流入。就行业分布来看，科技板块获外资流入最多，达95 亿美元，主要来自美国和欧洲地区。 高盛最新预判 华泰证券在最新发布的研究报告中指出，2025年以来，外资显著流入中国科技资产ETF，尤其是科技板 块。 报告显示，截至12月20日，2025年以来全球投资于中国资产的ETF累计获得831亿美元的资金净流入。 其中，境内ETF累计获资金流入786亿美元，境外ETF则累计净流入约45亿美元。从总体数值来看，外 资买入中国资产占比较小；然而，就内部分化情况来看，2025年以来外资对境内资产的配置存在显著倾 向性：就行业分布来看，科技板块获外资流入最多，达95亿美元，主要来自美国和欧洲地区；就具体产 品而言，外资流入排名前10的ETF中有六只为科技 ...

Core Viewpoint - UBS projects that the strength of the U.S. equity market will continue into 2026, with the S&P 500 expected to advance significantly due to earnings growth, looser financial conditions, and reduced policy uncertainty [1] Group 1: Earnings Growth and Market Projections - UBS highlights strong profit growth, especially among large technology firms, which has supported share prices without leading to unsustainable valuations, maintaining a solid market foundation for the upcoming year [2] - The bank anticipates corporate earnings for the S&P 500 to grow by approximately 10% in 2026, projecting the index could reach around 7,700 by year-end if earnings remain the main driver of price increases [2] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Economic Conditions - UBS expects the Federal Reserve to continue easing monetary policy into early 2026 as inflation decreases, which will lower borrowing costs and support risk assets [3] - A change in Fed leadership is anticipated to reinforce a more accommodative policy stance, further enhancing market conditions [3] Group 3: Trade and Regulatory Environment - UBS points to improving visibility on trade and regulatory issues as a supportive factor, with legal clarity around tariff authority expected in early 2026 potentially reducing investor uncertainty [4] - Despite possible near-term pauses, UBS maintains a bullish outlook on U.S. equities, supported by earnings growth, easier monetary policy, and improved policy clarity [4] Group 4: Divergence Among Wall Street Banks - Major Wall Street banks exhibit divided views on the S&P 500's trajectory for 2026, with Bank of America projecting a cautious end around 7,100 due to valuation pressures and risks from weakening consumption [5] - Conversely, other banks foresee further upside driven by earnings growth and AI investment, with JPMorgan targeting 7,500, Goldman Sachs at 7,600, and Morgan Stanley forecasting 7,800 [6]

Core Viewpoint - Foreign capital is reassessing Chinese assets, with significant inflows into the technology sector and optimistic forecasts for corporate earnings growth in China [2][4][10]. Group 1: Earnings Growth Predictions - Goldman Sachs analysts predict a 14% growth in Chinese corporate earnings in 2026 and a 12% growth in 2027, which is expected to boost the performance of the Chinese stock market [4][10]. - The report indicates that the MSCI China Index constituents' performance could increase by approximately 1.5% annually until 2030 due to growth in overseas revenue [5]. Group 2: Foreign Capital Inflows - As of December 20, 2025, global investments in Chinese asset ETFs have seen a net inflow of $83.1 billion, with the technology sector receiving the most significant inflow of $9.5 billion, primarily from the US and Europe [9]. - Domestic ETFs accounted for $78.6 billion of the inflow, while foreign ETFs saw a net inflow of about $4.5 billion [9]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - The technology sector is highlighted as a key area for foreign investment, with six out of the top ten foreign inflow ETFs being technology-focused, each receiving over $2 billion [9]. - Analysts from various institutions, including UBS and Morgan Stanley, express confidence in the recovery of Chinese technology stocks, indicating that the growth momentum is still in its early stages [10]. Group 4: Global Investor Sentiment - Global investors are increasingly interested in exploring investment opportunities in China, particularly in the technology and AI sectors, recognizing their strong growth potential [6]. - Clients from emerging markets, including Mexico and Chile, are actively investing in Chinese assets, viewing the technology sector as crucial for long-term growth and diversification [6].