Core Viewpoint - UBS's latest global strategy report highlights that the recent sharp rise in Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields has significantly exceeded what can be explained by fiscal fundamentals, primarily driven by a re-evaluation of inflation expectations. The report anticipates that inflation will cool to around 1.5% by mid-year, which will be a key turning point for JGB and yen trends [1][6][11]. Group 1: Market Signals - The volatility in JGB yields is not indicative of a systemic risk event similar to the UK's 2022 "Truss crisis," as the Japanese stock market remains resilient, suggesting investors should avoid panic selling in interest-sensitive sectors [1][20]. - With the attractiveness of JGB yields increasing, a significant repatriation of domestic funds from overseas bond markets is expected after the new fiscal year starts in April, leading to a reallocation towards Japanese government bonds [1][21]. - A decline in inflation will drive up real interest rates, providing support for the yen, as real rates have a more significant impact on exchange rates compared to nominal interest differentials [1][9][10]. Group 2: Fiscal Fundamentals - Despite concerns about Japan's fiscal situation, recent data shows a clear disconnect between the volatility in JGB yields and actual fiscal fundamentals. Japan's public debt as a percentage of GDP has decreased by 11 percentage points since 2023, while the average for developed economies has increased by 2 percentage points [2][5]. - Japan's fiscal deficit is projected to be around 2% of GDP by 2026, significantly lower than the developed economies' average of 4.9%. Additionally, Japan's government interest payments account for only 1.3% of GDP, compared to 3.3% for developed economies [2][5]. Group 3: Inflation and Interest Rates - The surge in JGB yields is primarily driven by market inflation expectations rather than fiscal deficit pressures. Current inflation in Japan is mainly influenced by structural factors such as food prices, while underlying service sector inflation remains around 1% [6][11]. - If inflation cools as expected, it will more effectively enhance real yields than the Bank of Japan's interest rate policies, thereby providing crucial support for both JGBs and the yen [9][16]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The traditional correlation between the yen and nominal interest rate differentials has weakened, with real interest rate differentials now serving as the core anchor for pricing. The theoretical value of USD/JPY based on real interest differentials aligns closely with current market rates [13][16]. - Japan's external position remains robust, with a net international investment position of +92% of GDP, contrasting sharply with the UK's -2.6% during its crisis. Japan also maintains a current account surplus of 4.8% of GDP, providing a stronger buffer against market volatility [17][20]. Group 5: Investment Trends - The primary risk to the market is not foreign investors selling JGBs but rather the potential large-scale repatriation of domestic funds from overseas bond markets, as JGB yields have surpassed globally hedged bond yields [21]. - The Japanese stock market shows significant structural differentiation, with a few stocks contributing to the majority of the Nikkei 225 index's gains, indicating a concentrated market driven by foreign investors and corporate buybacks, while domestic investors remain net sellers [21].

Davos 2026 did put crypto back in the global spotlight. It may not have dominated the WEF agenda but it was a part of enough speeches and conversations to move markets and set narratives for 2026. What was the big takeaway? Politics is still navigating through short-term price action. But traditional finance, Wall Street and more are increasingly treating crypto and tokenization as inevitable. In an exclusive chat with 99Bitcoins, Dea Markova, Policy Director for Fireblocks, weighed in. “As geopolitical ...

对投资者而言，这意味着市场的定价逻辑存在偏差。美联储（FOMC）正处于两难境地：一方面是疲软的劳动力市场，另一方面是关税带来的成 本推动型通胀。当前的资产价格建立在AI投资持续繁荣和富裕阶层消费强劲的"双支柱"之上。瑞银警告，主要风险在于AI投资热潮的任何动摇都 可能引发衰退（概率为50%）。瑞银认为市场低估了美联储在6月前不得不降息以应对就业恶化的紧迫性。 瑞银认为，美国经济的"韧性"表面之下，实际上是由单一驱动力——人工智能——苦苦支撑的脆弱平衡。 据追风交易台，瑞银在1月23日的报告中指出，尽管总体经济数据看似强劲，但增长来源极其狭窄。除AI和科技板块外，大部分实体经济处于疲 软甚至收缩状态。劳动力市场的扩张已经显著放缓，除去医疗保健行业的"繁荣"，就业实际上是在萎缩。 美联储正处于"维持独立性"与"挽救劳动力市场"的夹缝中。 利率路径预测：瑞银预计美联储将在2026年进行两次25个基点的降息，年底联邦基金利率目标区间将降至3.00%至3.25%。 被低估的3月降息：市场目前仅定价了约16%的3月降息概率（即25个基点中的4个基点）。瑞银认为，考虑到2月劳动力报告可能显现 疲软，且通胀反弹可能不及预期， ...

ab 21 January 2026 The IEA slightly increased its projections for global oil demand growth, by 12kb/d in 2025 to 0.9Mb/d (UBSe +0.9Mb/d) and by 70kb/d in 2026 to 0.9Mb/d (UBSe +1.2Mb/ d). Absolute demand revisions rose by 130kb/d for 2025 and 200kb/d for 2026, driven by an upward revision to the base (+114kb/d for 2024). China's demand growth forecast was raised by 60kb/d for 2025, but reduced by 15kb/d to 180kb/d for both years. Non-OPEC+ growth also up Global Research First Read Global Oil Fundamentals La ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the sentiment and policy tone of major central banks: the Federal Reserve (Fed), European Central Bank (ECB), and Bank of Japan (BoJ) [2][3][5][6]. Federal Reserve (Fed) - The Fed's communication remains dovish, but the momentum has slowed since early Q3 2025 [3]. - Labor market language is a primary anchor of the narrative, stabilizing without exerting downward pressure on sentiment [3]. - Inflation tone is hawkish but has been trending lower since summer 2025 [3]. - In early 2026, all Board members are uniformly dovish, with Bowman being the most dovish voice [3][18]. European Central Bank (ECB) - ECB communication shows signs of re-hawking, with sentiment edging closer to neutral after a dovish phase in autumn 2025 [5]. - Growth-related language is the main driver of this adjustment, while inflation tone has remained stable since summer 2025 [5]. - Early 2026 speaker evidence indicates a return to more dovish language from Philip Lane, while Luis de Guindos remains mildly dovish [5][36]. Bank of Japan (BoJ) - The BoJ's tone has firmed significantly through Q4 2025, with a broad-based strengthening across inflation, growth, and policy themes [6]. - There have been no dovish counter-voices in Q4, indicating a one-sided hawkish messaging from the BoJ [6][51]. - Governor Ueda has been a leading voice in this hawkish shift [6][54]. Additional Insights - The sentiment scores for the Fed, ECB, and BoJ indicate varying degrees of hawkishness and dovishness, with the Fed remaining the most dovish [8][12][24]. - The analysis utilizes AI-driven tools to track sentiment shifts and thematic focus across central banks, providing a comprehensive view of monetary policy dynamics [2]. Important Figures - The Fed's sentiment score has shown a consistent dovish trend, while the ECB's score is moving towards neutral [8][12][24]. - The BoJ's sentiment score has significantly increased, indicating a strong hawkish stance [8][41]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, focusing on the sentiment and policy tone of the major central banks, which are critical for understanding macroeconomic trends and potential investment opportunities.

Group 1: UBS's Cryptocurrency Strategy - UBS plans to begin offering cryptocurrency trading to meet the growing demand from wealthy clients [1] - The initial crypto offering will target select clients of UBS's private bank in Switzerland, with potential expansion to the United States and Asia-Pacific regions [2] - UBS is actively monitoring developments in digital assets and exploring initiatives that align with client needs and market trends [3] Group 2: Partnerships and Technological Developments - UBS has partnered with Ant International to explore blockchain-based tokenized deposits for global payments and liquidity management [3] - In November 2024, UBS completed a live tokenized fund transaction using Chainlink's Digital Transfer Agent standard, involving the UBS USD Money Market Investment Fund Token on Ethereum [4] - UBS announced the creation of UBS Digital Cash, a blockchain-based payment solution aimed at enhancing programmability for corporate and institutional clients [4] Group 3: Industry Context - JPMorganChase is also considering cryptocurrency trading for its institutional clients, evaluating potential products and services for its digital asset business [5] - E-Trade, part of Morgan Stanley, plans to add cryptocurrency trading to its platform by 2026, allowing clients to trade Bitcoin, Ether, and Solana [6]

Core Insights - UBS Group AG is set to offer crypto investing options to select private banking clients, aligning with the interests of wealthy clients [1][4] - The bank is the largest wealth manager globally, managing approximately $4.7 trillion in assets for high net-worth individuals as of September [1][2] Business Focus - UBS primarily concentrates on private banking and advisory services for affluent individuals and families, rather than engaging in mass retail banking [2] Recent Developments - UBS's influence increased significantly in 2023 following its merger with Credit Suisse, which was prompted by a series of scandals that diminished confidence in Credit Suisse [3] - The merger resulted in UBS's assets under management rising by about $1.5 trillion almost instantly [3] Crypto Investment Rollout - The bank is finalizing plans to provide crypto access, initially allowing select clients in Switzerland to trade Bitcoin and Ethereum, with potential expansion to the Asia-Pacific region [4] - As of the latest data, Bitcoin is trading at $90,132, having decreased nearly 5% in the past week, while Ethereum is at $2,967, down 10% [5] Market Context - Switzerland is increasingly viewed as a favorable jurisdiction for crypto businesses, with the Swiss National Bank recently increasing its Bitcoin exposure [5] - Following the shutdown of two crypto-friendly U.S. banks in 2022, Swiss banks reported an increase in inquiries from U.S. firms seeking banking partners [6]

进入2026年，全球资本在"去美国化"与多元化配置的背景下，正加速寻求更具韧性的资产组合。与此同 时，随着中国宏观基本面稳中向好、政策持续优化、科技创新加速推进，中国资产的吸引力正显著回 升。 《全球财经连线》：如何看待2026年中国经济增长及市场前景？ Desmond：我们对今年中国整体市场前景持较为乐观的判断。这一判断主要基于稳健的资产负债表状 况、相对宽松且具有支持性的财政与货币政策环境，以及关税因素影响的逐步减弱。 从更宏观的角度看，通胀水平仍处于可控区间；从生产率层面看，随着人工智能技术的加速应用，生产 效率有望持续提升。 总体而言，基于瑞银的判断，我们预计A股市场有望实现约8%的增长，MSCI中国指数的每股收益 （EPS）增速约为10%，折算到指数层面，今年市场或具备约14%的潜在上行空间。 中国资产成为全球配置重要组成部分 《全球财经连线》：中国是否重新成为一个值得投资的市场主题，还是说投资者依然保持相对谨慎？ Desmond：在经历了一段时间的观望与质疑之后，全球投资者如今对中国市场的态度已明显转向更加积 极和建设性。 多家国际机构在最新发布的2026年投资展望中对中国资产表达积极观点，认为中 ...

Group 1 - The SEC and CFTC will hold a joint event to discuss regulatory coordination in the cryptocurrency sector, aiming to fulfill the commitment to make the U.S. a global crypto hub [1] - Binance has submitted a MiCA license application in Greece and is collaborating with local regulators to ensure compliance, while facing challenges in France where it has not yet obtained the license [1] - UBS is planning to offer cryptocurrency trading services to select private banking clients, with discussions ongoing for several months, although no final decision has been made yet [1] Group 2 - The American Bankers Association (ABA) has identified "prohibiting interest on stablecoin" as a top policy priority for 2026, citing concerns that stablecoins could replace bank deposits and weaken community banks' deposit bases and lending capabilities [2] - The CEO of a major U.S. bank indicated that up to $6 trillion in deposits could potentially flow into interest-bearing stablecoins [2]

Core Viewpoint - UBS Group AG is set to offer Bitcoin and Ethereum trading to select private banking clients in Switzerland, with plans for expansion to Asia-Pacific and the U.S. [1] Group 1: Rollout Details - UBS is currently selecting partners for the crypto offering after months of discussions, with the initial rollout limited to select private banking clients in Switzerland [2] - The bank is opting to use outside partners for trading, custody, and compliance rather than building the infrastructure in-house [2] Group 2: Market Implications - The addition of crypto trading by large wealth platforms like UBS could enhance liquidity and attract a more traditional investor base to digital assets [4] - A mere 1% allocation of UBS's $4.7 trillion in assets into Bitcoin and Ethereum could generate $47 billion in potential demand [4] Group 3: Institutional Trends - UBS is part of a growing trend among traditional banks expanding their crypto offerings, with JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley also considering or planning to offer cryptocurrency trading [6] - The shift from cautious observation to active participation by major banks indicates changing risk calculations in the financial sector [6][7] Group 4: Regulatory Environment - The evolving regulatory frameworks are providing banks with more confidence to develop crypto products through controlled channels, reflecting a shift in client demand and risk management considerations [7]