瑞银经济学家Amanda Wilcox在上周五的一份报告中写道："库格勒理事席位的提前空缺，将使下任主 席的遴选工作进入加速阶段。"美联储此前宣布，库格勒将于8月8日正式离任。这位2023年9月就任、 原定任期至2026年1月的理事，上周因个人原因缺席了联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议。 库格勒在任职未满两年之际提前离任，正值白宫酝酿鲍威尔最终继任方案的关键时刻。 点击蓝字，关注我们 据瑞银经济学家分析，美联储理事库格勒上周五的意外辞职，使得主席鲍威尔继任者的遴选工作被迫提 前启动 ，这一职位空缺可能导致美联储领导层重组远早于预期。 而关于鲍威尔的潜在继任者，媒体和政策界已有诸多猜测。Wilcox指出："包括《华尔街日报》6月报 道在内的多家媒体已披露若干候选人名单，财政部长斯科特·贝森特、国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈西特 和前理事凯文·沃什均在列。我们认为本周两位支持降息25个基点的异议者之一沃勒理事也可能参与角 逐。" 尽管瑞银未对政府最终决策作出预测，但Wilcox强调："我们期待关注这一进程，特别是在今天下午的 辞职事件使得时间表明显提前之后。" 库格勒理事的提前离任使美联储理事会出现七个空缺席位，白 ...

Core Insights - The report from UBS indicates a shift in asset management strategies among ultra-high-net-worth clients, with a notable decrease in cash holdings and an increased interest in gold and alternative investments [2][6] Group 1: Family Office Trends - The average net worth of surveyed family offices reached $2.7 billion, with total assets under management amounting to $651 billion [2] - Family offices plan to hold only 6% of their assets in cash by 2025, reflecting a desire to invest more in global assets [2] - 21% of family offices globally plan to increase their allocation to gold and precious metals, a significant rise from the 10%-16% range observed in the past five years [2] Group 2: Investment Allocation - In the U.S., alternative investments constitute 54% of family office portfolios, with private equity at 27% and real estate at 18% [5] - Swiss family offices allocate 56% to traditional assets, with 34% in stocks and 13% in fixed income, while 44% is directed towards alternative assets [5] - North America is the preferred region for family office investments, accounting for 55% of allocations, followed by Western Europe at 21% and the Middle East at 14% [5] Group 3: Motivations Behind Investment Shifts - The decline in cash holdings and the increase in gold investments are driven by low interest rates and geopolitical instability, making gold an attractive option for wealth preservation [6] - The current 4% interest rate on USD deposits is no longer appealing to ultra-high-net-worth clients, leading them to seek greater appreciation potential in gold and alternative investments [6] Group 4: Interest in Chinese Assets - 35% of family offices plan to increase investments in the Asia-Pacific region over the next five years, with 30% targeting Greater China [7] - 39% of family offices intend to boost their investments in China within the next 12 months, indicating a growing interest in the Chinese market [7] - There is a consensus among global family offices regarding investment opportunities in sectors like pharmaceuticals and generative AI, with a significant focus on healthcare technology and innovation [7] Group 5: Hong Kong Market Appeal - The Hong Kong stock market has become increasingly attractive to global family offices, particularly due to the strong performance of technology companies listed there [8] - The availability of high-growth A+H listed companies has drawn overseas investors to the Hong Kong capital market [8]

智通财经APP获悉，瑞银全球投资银行部副主席及亚洲企业客户部联席主管李镇国指，预料今年香港 IPO发行量能超过2000亿港元。 另外，新修订的最低40%配售份额，也确保上市定价机制及有广泛和足够机构投资者参与上市发行，确 保稳定的长期后市稳定表现。据港交所优化新股市场定价及公开市场规定，将于8月4日生效。 8月1日，香港联交所就优化首次公开招股市场定价及公开市场规定的咨询文件刊发咨询总结。对此，李 镇国指出，香港联交所宣布的强化IPO价格机制和公开市场要求，无疑将继续提升香港作为发行人主要 上市地之一的吸引力和竞争力。这修订会继续加强全球企业选择香港最为上市地点。 ...

尽管标普500指数持续攀升逼近历史高位，华尔街"聪明钱"却依然坚守看空立场。 "对冲基金通过提前降杠杆，避免了与市场同步下跌的痛苦，"Caplis表示，"正因未受重创，他们现在也 不必被迫追高。" 高盛主经纪商业务部最新报告显示，过去四周对冲基金持续减持美股，抛售规模远超空头回补。尤为引 人注目的是，在科技、媒体和电信板块财报季来临前，基金正以一年来最快速度削减相关头寸——这些 板块正是4月以来股市反弹的主力军。 这种谨慎姿态曾使对冲基金成功规避4月关税风波引发的抛售潮。虽然标普500指数在7月创下历史新高 可能令其错失部分收益，但随着贸易战担忧挥之不去叠加美股传统淡季来临，这些市场最精明参与者的 撤退动向值得警惕。 "基金经理们仍保持高度谨慎，因为许多潜在风险尚未消除，"对冲基金研究机构PivotalPath首席执行官 Jonathan Caplis指出。 这种审慎情绪不仅存在于投资界。美联储本周维持利率不变，主席鲍威尔再次强调，在政策转向宽松 前，决策者需要更多时间评估关税对通胀的影响。 精准避险操作 3月下旬预判到特朗普将宣布加征关税后，对冲基金迅速降低股票敞口并增加空头头寸。这一策略被证 明极具先见之 ...

"全球家族办公室对中国的投资兴趣正在升温。除了家族办公室外，据我们观察，之前处于低配状态的 一些机构资金，今年也在通过QFII等渠道回到中国市场。今年市场对于中国相关的投资是特别有兴趣 的。"瑞银财富管理中国区主管吕子杰在日前的媒体分享会上表示。"新兴市场中，未来12个月全球家族 办公室的首选是中国和印度，特别是亚太地区，有39%的家族办公室在未来12个月都计划增加对中国内 地的投资。"瑞银财富管理投资总监办公室多元资产高级策略师李萌介绍。(上海证券报) ...

Core Viewpoint - The abrupt reversal of Trump's copper tariff policy, from a proposed 50% tariff to almost complete exemption, has led to a significant drop in copper prices, with COMEX copper prices falling over 20% and spot premiums nearing zero [1][3]. Group 1: Tariff Policy Impact - The recent tariff exemption exceeded market expectations, leading to a reversal of the "U.S. copper tariff trade" and creating downward pressure on prices [2][3]. - The cancellation of tariffs is viewed as the most negative scenario for copper prices, as it forces the liquidation of previously established arbitrage positions [2][3]. Group 2: Inventory Concerns - The U.S. holds a significant surplus of copper inventory, estimated at 500,000 to 700,000 tons, which will take 6-12 months to digest, further pressuring copper prices [2][4]. - The U.S. accounts for less than 10% of global copper demand, yet the tariff expectations have distorted global copper trade, leading to increased imports and subsequent overstocking [4]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The price differential between COMEX and LME copper had previously attracted significant metal inflows into the U.S., but this differential has now collapsed due to the tariff exemption [3][4]. - U.S. refined copper imports surged by approximately 400,000 tons (+130%) year-on-year in the first five months of the year, contributing to the accumulation of excess inventory [4].

Core Viewpoint - UBS analysts predict that the Swiss franc (CHF) will likely depreciate against the euro (EUR) due to investors seeking more favorable yields in the eurozone and an improved growth outlook for next year [1] Group 1: Economic Factors - Investors are shifting towards the eurozone for better yields, which is expected to put downward pressure on the Swiss franc [1] - The European Central Bank's cautious stance on interest rate cuts during its recent meeting supports the view that the CHF's strength will be limited by favorable interest rate differentials for the euro [1] Group 2: Trade Relations - There is limited news regarding a potential trade agreement between the US and Switzerland, but any progress in this area would be significant for the Swiss franc [1] Group 3: Forecast - UBS forecasts that the EUR/CHF exchange rate will reach 0.94 by the end of the year [1]

金十数据7月31日讯，瑞银全球财富管理分析师在一份报告中说，英镑兑日元似乎将走弱。"随着日本参 议院选举的通过和美日贸易协议的达成，日元的抛售压力应该会进一步减弱。"对英镑而言，市场对英 国降息的预期较为保守。他们表示，市场可能会进一步定价降息，特别是在弱于预期的数据之后，英国 央行为了提振经济增长或采取更激进的政策宽松倾向。瑞银建议做空英镑兑日元，目标为192.5，止损 位为200.5。 瑞银：英镑兑日元料将走软 ...

Core Viewpoint - UBS analysts suggest that the current strength of the US dollar is likely a temporary adjustment and does not indicate a reversal of its recent weakening trend [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Investors may have closed short positions on the dollar ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting, where interest rates were maintained [1] - The expectation is that once the Federal Reserve signals a potential restart of interest rate cuts in the coming months, the dollar's weakening trend will re-emerge [1] Group 2: Economic Forecast - UBS anticipates that US economic growth will further slow down in the second half of the year compared to the first half [1] - The firm projects that the euro will rise to 1.20 against the dollar later this year [1]

UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION Washington, D.C. 20549 _________________ FORM 6-K REPORT OF FOREIGN PRIVATE ISSUER PURSUANT TO RULE 13a-16 OR 15d-16 UNDER THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 Date: July 31, 2025 UBS Group AG (Registrant's Name) Bahnhofstrasse 45, 8001 Zurich, Switzerland (Address of principal executive office) Commission File Number: 1-36764 UBS AG (Registrant's Name) Bahnhofstrasse 45, 8001 Zurich, Switzerland Aeschenvorstadt 1, 4051 Basel, Switzerland (Address of principal ...