Group 1 - The core finding of UBS's survey of 3,000 Chinese consumers indicates a continued decline in consumer sentiment, primarily driven by falling incomes and asset values leading to a negative wealth effect [1][19] Group 2 - Household income is decreasing, with significant slowdowns in both wage and rental income growth, while investment income has seen a slight increase due to a bullish A-share market [2][20] - Consumers exhibit a pessimistic outlook on their income over the next 12 months, particularly regarding wages and rental income, which diminishes their expectations for future financial improvement [5][23] - The relationship between income decline and consumption is not linear; a decrease in income can lead to a disproportionately larger drop in consumption due to the multiplier effect [5][24] Group 3 - There is an increased willingness to save and a decreased willingness to consume, with savings and investment proportions rising while consumption proportions are falling [6][25] - Consumption trends show a clear divide, with high willingness to spend in essential sectors like education and healthcare, while discretionary spending in clothing and entertainment is declining [9][28] Group 4 - Government subsidies have had a limited impact on stimulating consumption, with monthly increases in spending being minimal, often just a few hundred yuan [12][31] - The effectiveness of subsidies is diminishing due to previous purchases made by willing consumers and tightening fiscal conditions leading to reduced subsidy amounts [12][31] Group 5 - Approximately half of those who sold their homes this year did so at a loss, as average national housing prices have reverted to levels seen in 2015-2016, affecting many recent buyers [15][34] - The expectation of future profits from real estate sales is higher among those who have not yet sold, indicating a tendency to overestimate the value of held assets [15][34] Group 6 - The decline in the real estate market has not redirected funds to other sectors as previously theorized; instead, it has negatively impacted various industries, leading to significant capital evaporation [18][37] - UBS predicts that without substantial stimulus policies, overall consumption growth in China will continue to slow, potentially stabilizing at a modest single-digit growth rate by 2026 [18][37] - For sustainable recovery in consumption, key factors include stabilizing employment, improving the social security system, and maintaining stable housing prices [18][37]

ab 24 December 2025 Global Research Global Economic Forecast Database UBS forecasts - changes this week Latest global economic forecasts All UBS economic forecasts (>50 indicators for roughly 40 countries/regions) are accessible in Excel through our "Global Forecast Database" which can be found here. For ease of reference, we also circulate the Database tables, on a weekly basis, sorted by Indicator and Region (pg 7-73). A summary can be found on pg 4. Pg 5 shows forecast changes compared to a week ago and ...

Company Overview - Proactive is a financial news publisher that provides fast, accessible, informative, and actionable business and finance news content to a global investment audience [2] - The company has a team of experienced and qualified news journalists who produce independent content [2] Market Focus - Proactive specializes in medium and small-cap markets while also covering blue-chip companies, commodities, and broader investment stories [3] - The content delivered includes insights across various sectors such as biotech and pharma, mining and natural resources, battery metals, oil and gas, crypto, and emerging digital and EV technologies [3] Technology Adoption - Proactive is recognized for being a forward-looking technology adopter, utilizing decades of expertise and experience among its content creators [4] - The company employs automation and software tools, including generative AI, while ensuring that all published content is edited and authored by humans [5]

N26, the European digital bank, appointed Mike Dargan as its next Chief Executive Officer, effective from the beginning of April 2026. Dargan, who currently serves as a Group Executive Board member at UBS Group AG, will succeed co-founder Maximilian Tayenthal and interim co-CEO Marcus W. Mosen.The appointment remains subject to regulatory approval by the German financial regulator, BaFin.A seasoned banking veteranDargan brings over 25 years of leadership experience in financial services and technology to th ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **Chinese economy**, focusing on various economic indicators and trends, particularly in the **retail, property, and investment sectors**. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Retail Sales Performance**: - Retail sales growth slowed to **1.3% YoY** in November, down from **2.9% YoY** in October, which was weaker than market expectations of **2.9%** [110] - Sales of household appliances and automobiles contracted significantly, with household appliances down **19% YoY** and autos down **8% YoY** [110] - The overall consumption growth is expected to remain soft in 2026 due to high base effects and ongoing property downturn [110] 2. **Fixed Asset Investment (FAI)**: - FAI growth remained weak, with a **YoY decline of -11.1%** in November, slightly better than the previous month [85] - Manufacturing FAI saw a modest improvement, narrowing its decline to **-4.5% YoY** [85] - Infrastructure FAI continued to contract sharply at **-11.9% YoY** [85] - The deployment of special financing tools from policy banks may provide some support for FAI components in the future [85] 3. **Property Market Dynamics**: - The property market continues to face challenges, with property sales growth falling by **17.3% YoY** in November and new starts down **27.6% YoY** [70] - The average new home sales price in 70 cities declined by **0.4% MoM** in November, indicating ongoing price pressures [70] - The government has implemented various measures to support the property sector, but the recovery is expected to take time [70] 4. **Economic Growth Projections**: - Q4 GDP growth is anticipated to decelerate to around **4.2% YoY**, with full-year 2025 GDP growth averaging **4.9%**, aligning with the target of "around 5%" [4] - The Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) is expected to set a GDP growth target of **4.5-5%** for 2026, although achieving this may be challenging due to anticipated slowdowns in exports and the property market [6] 5. **Monetary and Fiscal Policy**: - Modest policy easing is ongoing, with expectations of a **20bps cut in policy rates** by the end of 2026 [5] - The government plans to increase consumption subsidies to **RMB 400 billion** in 2026 from **RMB 300 billion** in 2025, aiming to support consumer spending [110] Other Important Insights - **Inflation Trends**: - November CPI inflation increased to **0.7% YoY**, driven by a rebound in food prices, while PPI recorded a slight decline of **-2.2% YoY** [125] - The inflation outlook suggests a potential rebound in CPI to **0.4%** in 2026, while PPI may only turn positive by late 2026 or early 2027 [125] - **Credit and Liquidity Conditions**: - Total social financing (TSF) growth stabilized at **8.5% YoY** in November, with new RMB loans totaling **RMB 390 billion** [140] - The PBC is expected to continue accommodative monetary policy, with further RRR cuts anticipated [150] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current state and future outlook of the Chinese economy, particularly in retail, property, and investment sectors.

《南华早报》此前发文称，据瑞士投资银行瑞银预计，2026年香港首次公开募股(IPO)市场仍将保持全球最大筹资地的 地位，得益于巨额交易的管道和美国资本的回归。 【环球网财经综合报道】Wind数据显示，2025年港股全年IPO规模预计将达到2863亿港元，重返全球第一；港股再融 资规模则达到3166亿港元，远超2022年至2024年的规模，甚至接近过去三年的总和3181亿港元。 瑞银还预计，2026年香港将有150至200宗IPO融资超过3000亿港元（约3850亿美元），超越今年约2700亿港元的融资 额，使香港重新成为全球第一。 瑞银全球银行亚洲区覆盖部联席主管李长江（John Lee Chen-kwok）表示："明年第一季度将有一些IPO筹集超过100亿 港元。"他还补充称，消费商品、高科技和人工智能等行业交易有望为市场带来强劲开局。 ...

Core Insights - The banking sector is experiencing strong returns driven by deregulation, increased activity levels in capital markets and lending, and the potential for a steeper yield curve [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Drivers - Deregulation is expected to provide approximately 150 basis points in near-term returns for banks [7] - The return of capital market activities and lending to middle-market companies is positively impacting bank stocks, particularly Goldman Sachs [2][3] - A steeper yield curve is seen as a precondition for outperformance in the banking sector [2] Group 2: Stock Performance and Valuation - Bank stocks have historically outperformed the S&P 500 for two consecutive years only after coming out of recessionary periods, making the current performance noteworthy [3] - Bank of America is highlighted for its undemanding valuation and exposure to favorable market conditions, making it a strong pick for the upcoming year [4] - Capital One is recognized for its competitive advantage as a dual debit issuer and credit card network, indicating a multi-year growth story [5] Group 3: Regional Banks and Mergers - Regional banks, such as Huntington, are expected to perform well in 2026, having not participated as much in the recent rally compared to larger money center banks [5][6] - There is speculation about potential mergers among larger regional banks due to a shift in regulatory constraints, with expectations for significant announcements in the first half of the next year [13][15]

abc 2025 年 12 月 22 日 中国经济透视 中国企业家调查：企业运营、反内卷与供应链 转移 受访者对贸易前景和中美关系预期改善 UBS Evidence Lab第17期中国企业家调查对400多名企业高管进行问卷调 查。得益于贸易谈判在过去几个月取得了积极进展，调查结果显示相较 于2025年4月和6月的调查，2025年9月企业家对中美关系的预期改善。 在2025年9月开展的调查中，大部分受访者预计中美两国可以达成贸易协 议、关税或将降低；在10月底中美贸易摩擦缓和，这一预期已部分兑现。受 访者所在企业的出口订单已较2025年6月的恐慌中恢复，非美国市场订单继 续好于整体订单。在美国加征关税的背景下，受访者中对美出口商的出口价 格较2024年底水平小幅提高。受访者对非美国贸易伙伴实施偏紧政策的担 忧较2025年6月调查有所上升，尤其是欧洲、加拿大和墨西哥。同时，受访 者对中国面临科技限制的预期转为相对更正面。 Powered by YES UBS Evidence Lab Global Research 预计供应链转移继续，但速度或有所放缓 中国 王 紫娇 经济学家 S1460524050003 gr ...

Group 1 - UBS Group AG increased its stake in SANY Heavy Industry Co., Ltd. by purchasing 86,600 shares at a price of HKD 21.5263 per share, totaling approximately HKD 1.8642 million [1] - After the purchase, UBS's total holdings in SANY Heavy Industry amount to approximately 57.7074 million shares, representing a stake of 8.01% [1]

北向资金持仓市值连续三个季度增长正在印证这份信心。业内普遍认为，2026年中国"慢牛"行情将持 续。在今年强劲表现之后，中国股市的估值仍低于全球同类市场，也远低于历史高点，估值具有上调潜 力。其中，中国科技股被视为全球股市中具有高确信度的板块。 看好中国经济，2027年底中国股市将上涨38% 日前，高盛发布的一则研报《2025年中国股市十大经验总结》引起市场关注。 报告指出，中国股市已实现连续两年上涨，牛市行情有望持续，只是步伐会放缓。"我们预测，到2027 年底中国股市将上涨38%，受到2026年和2027年分别为14%和12%的盈利增长以及约10%的估值修复潜 力的推动。" 2025年即将收官，2026年的中国机遇可期。 新京报贝壳财经记者梳理多家外资机构研报时发现，"把握中国机遇""将继续增持中国资产""超额回 报"等频繁出现。这些机构整体对中国2026年的市场前景保持乐观，并预测到2027年底中国股市有望上 涨38%。 在众多投资方向中，中国科技股成为外资机构一致看好的核心赛道。 瑞银明确呼吁投资者"把握中国机遇"，并指出，人工智能（AI）创新和相关支出，预计将推动中国科技 行业2026年盈利大幅增长 ...