格隆汇7月30日｜瑞银第二季度总营收121.1亿美元，市场预估118.7亿美元；净利润24亿美元，市场预估 为22.1亿美元。瑞银计划在下半年完成至多20亿美元的股票回购，持续为股息实现两位数增长进行储 备。 ...

Net profitable attributable to shareholders hit $2.395 billion in the second quarter, compared with a mean LSEG analyst forecast of $1.901 billion. The bank's revenues over the period reached $12.112 billion, just below analyst expectations of $12.45 billion. This breaking news story is being updated. A logo of Swiss banking giant UBS in Zurich, on March 23, 2023. Swiss banking titan UBS on Wednesday beat expectations on the bottom line, as group invested assets soared on the back of increases in the lender ...

Core Insights - UBS reported a net profit of $2.4 billion for the second quarter, up from $1.14 billion in the same period last year, exceeding the forecast of $2.21 billion [1] - Total revenue reached $12.11 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.7%, surpassing the expected $11.87 billion [1] - Net interest income was $1.97 billion, marking a year-on-year growth of 28%, slightly above the forecast of $1.94 billion [1]

瑞银第二季度 净利润24亿美元，预估为22.1亿美元。 ...

【环球网财经综合报道】据Financial Times等外媒报道，瑞银集团已通知其客户经理，暂停向多数客户 推销名为"区间目标利润远期合约"（RTPF）的复杂外汇衍生品。这一决定源于美国政府4月初宣布的高 额关税政策引发美元大幅波动，导致众多瑞银客户投资的RTPF产品遭受亏损。 RTPF是一种专为高净值客户设计的高风险结构性外汇产品。其运作机制是：客户与银行约定，在美元 兑瑞郎汇率保持在特定区间时，以固定利率进行货币兑换；若汇率突破该区间，合同仍强制生效。这意 味着客户可能被迫以极端不利的汇率持续换汇，导致损失。 为应对这一局面，瑞银已采取多项措施：停止向多数客户推销该产品、向100多位客户支付"善意补偿 金"、启动内部审查程序、加强员工风险评估培训，并对至少6位客户经理的销售行为展开调查。此外， 瑞银还从今年初开始陆续联系受影响客户。 值得注意的是，RTPF产品本应仅面向专业投资者销售，在英国、西班牙及多个亚洲市场都受到严格监 管。然而，部分瑞银客户缺乏相关风险认知，甚至有用抵押房产资金进行投资的案例。一位客户透露， 其客户经理近期态度明显转变，不再主动推销这类产品，且未携带任何宣传资料，仅进行口头说明。 ...

Core Insights - UBS conducted a global family office survey with 317 participants, revealing a historical high in wealth scale and a trend of increasing total net worth among family offices since 2020 [1] Group 1: Asset Allocation Trends - Family offices are reducing cash allocations, with a planned cash holding of only 6% by 2025, shifting towards global equities due to low cash yields [2] - There is a significant increase in private debt investments among family offices to enhance returns and diversify portfolios, with 48% of Asia-Pacific family offices planning to increase developed market equities [3] - Approximately one-third of family offices plan to increase allocations to gold and precious metals, particularly in the Asia-Pacific and Middle East regions, where the interest is notably high [4] Group 2: Interest in Chinese Assets - Global family offices show increasing interest in Chinese assets, with 19% planning to allocate more to this region, a 3 percentage point increase from 2024 [5] - In the Asia-Pacific region, 30% of family offices intend to increase their allocation to China, up 6 percentage points year-on-year, with the Middle East showing the highest interest at 45% [5][6] - China and India are identified as the most favored emerging market destinations for investment over the next 12 months, with 39% of Asia-Pacific family offices planning to increase their holdings in mainland China [7] Group 3: Long-term Investment Focus - Family offices prefer active management strategies, with 78% in the Asia-Pacific region employing such approaches, focusing on sectors like pharmaceuticals, healthcare, electrification, and artificial intelligence [8] - There is a strong emphasis on sustainable and impact investing, with 44% of global family offices supporting education through charitable means, and 61% in the Asia-Pacific investing in healthcare technology and related projects [8] Group 4: Risk Management Strategies - To mitigate potential risks, family offices adopt diversified investment strategies, with 40% employing active management and professional investment managers [9] - Nearly one-third of family offices utilize hedge funds to manage market volatility, while others increase allocations to illiquid assets, high-quality fixed income, and precious metals to enhance portfolio resilience [9]

消息人士：瑞银正在加紧制定应急计划，包括可能搬迁总部，以期推动瑞士规则的放宽。 ...

Core Insights - UBS's report highlights that family offices are actively seeking structural growth opportunities despite a complex economic environment [1] - The report is based on a survey of 317 family offices globally, with an average asset management of $1.1 billion [1] Asset Allocation: Structural Growth and Diversification - The allocation to developed market equities increased from 24% in 2023 to 26% in 2024, with 35% of family offices planning to raise this to 29% by 2025 [2] - Private debt allocation doubled from 2% in 2023 to 4% in 2024, with plans to increase to 5% by 2025 [2] - Private equity allocation decreased from a peak of 22% in 2023 to 21% in 2024 due to a sluggish capital market [2] Cash Allocation Trends - Cash allocation decreased from 10% in 2023 to 8% in 2024, with a further decline to 6% expected by 2025 [3] - Gold and precious metals allocation rose from 1% in 2023 to 2% in 2024, indicating a growing demand for safe-haven assets [3] Regional Preferences: Domestic Focus and Emerging Market Opportunities - North America and Western Europe account for 79% of global family office allocations, with a slight increase from the previous year [4] - 28% of family offices plan to increase investments in India, while 18% are looking to invest more in mainland China [4] Challenges in Emerging Markets - 56% of family offices cite geopolitical risks as a primary challenge in investing in emerging markets [5] - The allocation to emerging market equities and fixed income remains low at 4% and 3%, respectively [5] Future Risks and Management Strategies - 70% of family offices view global trade wars as a significant investment risk for 2025 [6] - 40% of family offices are relying more on investment managers for selection and active management as a risk management strategy [6] Investment in New Technologies - Family offices show higher familiarity with healthcare and electrification, with 35% and 29% having clear investment strategies in these areas [6] - 75% of family offices believe that the banking and financial services sector will be the main beneficiary of generative AI applications [6] Intergenerational Wealth Transfer Challenges - Only 53% of family offices have established wealth transfer plans, with significant regional disparities [7] - The complexity of wealth transfer increases with the size of the family office, with larger offices facing more challenges [7] Observations on China's Family Offices - The rapid economic development in China has led to a growing demand for family offices, particularly for wealth transfer tools [8] - Chinese entrepreneurs are beginning to delegate management to the next generation while still actively participating [8]

Core Viewpoint - There is a significant inflow of overseas passive funds back into the Chinese stock market, particularly through ETFs, indicating renewed interest from international investors [2][4][14]. Group 1: ETF Inflows - The largest Chinese stock ETF listed in the US, KWEB, saw a net inflow of $876 million (approximately 6.29 billion RMB) from July 17 to July 25, with a single-day inflow peak of $264 million on July 17, marking a five-month high [4][5]. - Other ETFs also experienced substantial inflows, such as MCHI with $154 million and $201 million on July 24 and 25 respectively, and FXI with $76.9 million on June 17, reversing a long trend of outflows [5][6]. - CQQQ, a technology-focused ETF, recorded a net inflow of $72.3 million in the past month, with a notable single-day inflow of $48.4 million on June 27 [5]. Group 2: Performance of ETFs - KWEB has shown a one-year return of 41.84% with a current size of $7.76 billion, while MCHI has a return of 46.97% and a size of $7.22 billion [6]. - FXI has the highest one-year return at 55.81% with a size of $6.58 billion, indicating strong performance among these ETFs [6]. - The technology-focused CQQQ has a one-year return of 46.02% and a size of $1.26 billion, reflecting the growing interest in tech stocks [6]. Group 3: Active Fund Management - Some overseas active management funds are also increasing their positions in internet technology stocks, with notable examples including FSSA China Growth I and Fidelity's China Focus Fund, which have sizes of $2.7 billion and $2.5 billion respectively [8][10]. - These funds have shown strong performance, with Fidelity's fund reaching a five-year high in net value [10][12]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Goldman Sachs has raised its 12-month target for the MSCI China Index from 85 to 90, suggesting an 11% upside potential, and maintains an overweight stance on Chinese stocks [14]. - The renewed interest in Chinese stocks is driven by diversification needs beyond the US market, expectations of a stronger RMB, and the emergence of AI applications in China [14].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the increasing bubble risk in the U.S. stock market due to rising speculative activities and leverage levels, as warned by major investment banks [1][4][12] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs strategists noted that speculative trading activities have reached historical highs, second only to the 2000 internet bubble and the 2021 retail trading frenzy [2][6] - Deutsche Bank pointed out that margin debt has surpassed $1 trillion for the first time, indicating a "heated" level of borrowing to invest in stocks [3][10] - Bank of America reiterated the bubble risk, attributing it to loose monetary policies and relaxed financial regulations, suggesting that increased retail participation leads to greater liquidity and volatility [4][14][16] Group 3 - The speculative trading indicator from Goldman Sachs shows that the proportion of trading in unprofitable stocks and overvalued stocks has increased, with significant activity in major tech companies and firms involved in digital assets [8][7] - Deutsche Bank reported an 18.5% increase in margin debt over two months, marking the fastest pace of leverage since late 1999 or mid-2007 [10][11] - Bank of America forecasts that the global policy interest rate will decrease further, potentially leading to larger market bubbles [14][18]