Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group [3][6]. Core Views - Xiaomi Group's smartphone shipments reached 42.7 million units in Q4 2024, marking a 4.8% year-on-year increase, with a global market share of 12.9%, positioning it among the top three manufacturers [1]. - In the Chinese market, Xiaomi's smartphone shipments grew by 28.4% year-on-year, driven by the success of the Xiaomi 15 series and local subsidies for high-end devices [1]. - The IoT business is expected to benefit from the 2024 appliance replacement subsidy policy, leading to significant revenue growth [2]. - The automotive segment delivered 135,000 units in 2024, with a target of 300,000 units for 2025, indicating strong growth potential [2][3]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at CNY 362.9 billion, CNY 456.2 billion, and CNY 596.8 billion, representing year-on-year growth rates of 34%, 26%, and 31% respectively [3][11]. - Adjusted net profit for the consumer electronics segment is projected to be CNY 32.1 billion in 2025, with a growth rate of 10% [3][11]. - The report anticipates a continued upward trend in IoT gross margins due to improvements in product quality and cost efficiency [2][3]. Market Performance - Xiaomi's stock closed at HKD 45.15 on February 17, 2025, with a total market capitalization of approximately HKD 1.13 trillion [6]. - The report sets a target price of HKD 54 for Xiaomi Group based on a 20x P/E ratio for the consumer electronics segment and a 2x P/S ratio for the automotive segment [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Huaxing Securities has upgraded Xiaomi Group to a "Buy" rating and significantly raised its target price to HKD 52.00 [1] - Xiaomi's revenue for the fourth quarter of last year is expected to exceed RMB 100 billion for the first time, reaching RMB 105 billion, a year-on-year increase of 40% [1] - Smartphone revenue is projected to be RMB 49 billion, with a 6% year-on-year increase in average selling price due to higher contributions from premium models [1] Group 2 - IoT revenue is expected to grow by 46% year-on-year to RMB 29.7 billion, benefiting from domestic stimulus policies [1] - Internet services revenue is anticipated to increase by 13% year-on-year to RMB 8.9 billion, with notable performance in electric vehicle deliveries and revenue [1] - Overall gross margin is expected to improve by 20 basis points quarter-on-quarter to 20.6% [1] Group 3 - Revenue and profit growth for Xiaomi in 2025 will be driven by three factors: national consumption subsidy policies, expansion of electric vehicle production capacity and introduction of new models, and the monetization of CEO Lei Jun's personal brand along with the implementation of Xiaomi's new retail strategy [1] - Based on higher revenue forecasts for the IoT and electric vehicle segments, Huaxing Securities has raised Xiaomi's revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 by 2%-5% [2] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been increased by 4%-21%, with a projected CAGR of 22% for adjusted net profit during this period [2]

Group 1 - Xiaomi's stock has appreciated 30% year-to-date, driven by strength in the electric vehicle (EV) sector and a broader rally in Chinese equities, indicating a bullish outlook for the company [1] - The company is expected to have further room for growth, suggesting continued positive performance in the near future [1] Group 2 - Astrada Advisors specializes in investment research across technology, media, internet, and consumer sectors in North America and Asia, focusing on identifying high-potential investments [2] - The firm integrates rigorous fundamental analysis with data-driven insights to provide a nuanced understanding of key trends, growth drivers, and competitive landscapes [2] - Astrada Advisors aims to empower investors with timely research and a comprehensive view of industry dynamics, particularly in volatile markets [2]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an initial investment rating of "Buy" for Xiaomi Group-W (01810) with a target price of 41.7 HKD, while the current price is 44.7 HKD [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Xiaomi's high-end strategy is evolving from single product categories to an ecosystem approach, leveraging its efficiency to enhance user experience and achieve scale [1][2]. - The automotive sector is identified as a key long-term growth driver for Xiaomi, with expectations for significant growth in the coming years [2][3]. - The emergence of a new AI era is seen as a pivotal moment for Xiaomi, with its AIOT ecosystem positioned to capitalize on this trend [2][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Business Upgrades and Organizational Structure - Xiaomi has undergone three significant upgrades, strategically positioning itself to target the global automotive market [12]. - The organizational structure has been enhanced to support business expansion, with a mix of internal promotions and external hires [14]. 2. Revenue Breakdown and Market Position - In 2023, Xiaomi's total revenue reached 271 billion RMB, with smartphones contributing approximately 60% and IoT and lifestyle products accounting for about 30% [17]. - The smartphone market is experiencing a recovery, with Xiaomi maintaining a strong position among the top three global smartphone manufacturers [19]. 3. Automotive Business - The automotive sector is viewed as a critical source of long-term flexibility for Xiaomi, with expectations for significant sales growth in the coming years [2][41]. - The SU7 model has shown strong sales performance, indicating a successful entry into the automotive market [42]. 4. AIOT and Ecosystem Development - Xiaomi's AIOT business is transitioning into a 2.0 era, focusing on enhancing technological attributes and user experience [30][32]. - The integration of AI capabilities across devices is expected to strengthen Xiaomi's ecosystem and user engagement [47]. 5. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that Xiaomi will continue to benefit from its brand upgrade and accelerated international expansion, projecting total revenue growth to 353.4 billion RMB by 2024 [3]. - The company's strategy to embrace high-value users, particularly from the Apple ecosystem, is expected to enhance its market position [55].

Summary of Xiaomi Conference Call Company Overview - The conference call focused on Xiaomi, highlighting its recent stock performance and strategic developments over the past four years, with the stock reaching a historical high [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Stock Performance and Market Sentiment** - Xiaomi's stock has reached a new high, indicating a positive market sentiment and a reassessment of the company's growth potential [1][2]. - The company is expected to continue its upward trend despite potential short-term volatility [2]. 2. **Business Growth Drivers** - The growth is attributed to several core business areas, including automotive, smartphone premiumization, IoT, and new retail, all of which have exceeded expectations [2][4]. - The company has adopted a "new ten-year" strategy, focusing on becoming a global leader in hard-core technology [3]. 3. **Manufacturing and Product Strategy** - Xiaomi is redefining product forms and restructuring its manufacturing processes, which is seen as a significant transformation in the manufacturing sector [4]. - The company aims to transition from being a large manufacturer to a strong one, emphasizing smart manufacturing capabilities [4]. 4. **Financial Performance and Projections** - The company has revised its profit growth expectations for the main business to around 10%, up from previous estimates [6]. - Xiaomi's smartphone gross margin has improved, with projections for 2024 indicating a profit increase to over 310 million [6][14]. 5. **Market Share and Competitive Position** - Xiaomi has maintained a strong market position, ranking in the top three globally for 17 consecutive quarters, with significant growth in emerging markets [8][9]. - The company is gaining market share from competitors like Samsung, particularly in mid-range and budget segments [9]. 6. **Product Development and Innovation** - The company has made strides in high-end smartphone development, with models like the Xiaomi 14 showing strong sales potential [10][11]. - Xiaomi's focus on product stability and user experience has led to improved customer satisfaction and brand loyalty [11]. 7. **IoT and Ecosystem Development** - Xiaomi has built a robust IoT platform, expanding into over a hundred categories, although it faces challenges in maintaining healthy partnerships within its ecosystem [16][17]. - The company is enhancing collaboration across its various business lines to improve product development and supply chain efficiency [17][18]. 8. **Automotive Business Expansion** - The automotive segment is transitioning from negative to positive valuation, with strong sales and profitability expected in the coming years [25][26]. - The company is focusing on smart manufacturing capabilities in its automotive factories, which is expected to enhance production efficiency [28][29]. 9. **Internet Services Growth** - Xiaomi's internet services revenue is projected to grow alongside its active user base, with a significant portion of revenue coming from its app store [23][24]. - The company is also expanding its internet services internationally, contributing to overall revenue growth [24]. Additional Important Points - The company has invested heavily in R&D, increasing its budget significantly over the years, which is expected to drive future innovations [34][35]. - Xiaomi's organizational restructuring and talent acquisition have been pivotal in enhancing its operational capabilities and strategic direction [33][34]. - The conference concluded with an invitation for further questions from investors, indicating an open line for ongoing communication and engagement [36].

财联社1月6日电，南向资金今日净买入51.24亿港元。 港股通（沪）方面，小米集团-W、中国移动分别获净买入10.10亿港元、3.56亿港元；微盟集团遭净卖 出0.05亿港元；港股通（深）方面，小米集团-W、中国移动分别获净买入3.90亿港元、2.79亿港元；阿 里巴巴-W遭净卖出0.98亿港元。 ...

Group 1 - Xiaomi Group-W has received net inflows from southbound funds for five consecutive days, with a total net purchase amount of 1.51 billion HKD, and the stock price has increased by 9.35% during this period [1][2] - On December 24, Xiaomi Group-W recorded a trading volume of 2.248 billion HKD through the Hong Kong Stock Connect, with a net purchase amount of 365 million HKD [2] - The total trading volume for active stocks on the Hong Kong Stock Connect on December 24 was 15.969 billion HKD, with a net purchase amount of 2.056 billion HKD [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group with a target price of HK$34.00, indicating a potential upside of 20% from the current price of HK$28.30 [2][3][8]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the structural growth opportunities for Xiaomi in the Southeast Asian market, driven by smartphone replacement cycles and increasing IoT product penetration [6][17][22]. - Despite challenges in overseas markets, Xiaomi's revenue contribution from international markets has increased to 45% in 2023, up from 36% in 2020, indicating a shift towards emerging markets as key growth drivers [17][19]. - The report highlights the potential for Xiaomi to capture a larger market share in Southeast Asia, with expectations of an increase from 15% in Q3 2024 to approximately 18% by 2026 [46][48]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Xiaomi are as follows: RMB 356,281 million for 2024E, RMB 423,470 million for 2025E, and RMB 465,323 million for 2026E [11]. - Earnings per share (EPS) estimates are projected at RMB 0.99 for 2024E, RMB 1.08 for 2025E, and RMB 1.24 for 2026E, reflecting a growth trajectory [11]. - The report notes a significant increase in the average price of smartphones in Southeast Asia, with potential market value growth of 13% driven by rising prices [35][36]. Market Opportunities - The Southeast Asian smartphone market is expected to see a structural growth opportunity, with a projected increase in smartphone shipments to 17 million units by 2026, driven by a shortening replacement cycle [29][31]. - The report identifies that the average smartphone price in Southeast Asia is currently lower than in China, suggesting room for price increases as 5G penetration grows [35][38]. - Xiaomi's IoT product offerings are expected to drive significant traffic and sales growth in the region, with a focus on enhancing product accessibility and expanding SKU variety [62][67]. Competitive Landscape - Xiaomi ranks among the top three smartphone vendors in Southeast Asia, alongside Samsung and Oppo, with a competitive edge in both high-end and low-end market segments [46][48]. - The report indicates that Xiaomi's market share has fluctuated due to challenges faced in overseas markets, but there is optimism for recovery and growth in market share through strategic initiatives [46][48]. - The report also highlights the importance of enhancing retail experiences and expanding distribution networks to capture market opportunities effectively [59][63].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, reflecting optimism about its growth prospects, particularly in high-end smartphones, IoT, and automotive sectors [2][5] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue reaching RMB 92.5 billion (YoY +30.5%, QoQ +4.1%) and net profit of RMB 5.34 billion (YoY +9.7%, QoQ +5.3%) [1] - The smartphone business achieved revenue of RMB 47.45 billion (YoY +13.9%, QoQ +2.0%) with a gross margin of 11.7%, driven by higher ASPs due to increased high-end smartphone sales [1] - IoT and lifestyle products revenue grew to RMB 26.10 billion (YoY +26.3%), with strong growth in major appliances, tablets, and wearables [1] - The smart electric vehicle business reported revenue of RMB 8.04 billion (QoQ +49.1%) with a gross margin of 17.1%, delivering 39,800 vehicles in Q3 and targeting 130,000 units for the full year [1] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 355.7 billion in 2024 to RMB 515.8 billion in 2026, with net profit expected to increase from RMB 19.9 billion to RMB 32.1 billion over the same period [1] - The company's EPS is forecasted to rise from RMB 0.78 in 2024 to RMB 1.26 in 2026, with a P/E ratio declining from 34.1x to 21.0x [1][5] Business Highlights - The smartphone segment is on track to achieve its annual shipment target of 170 million units, with flagship models performing exceptionally well [1] - IoT and lifestyle products, particularly major appliances, are expected to grow by 50% YoY in 2024 [1] - The automotive business is gaining momentum, with 100,000 vehicles delivered by November 2024 and a full-year target of 130,000 units [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for Xiaomi Group-W (1810) with a target price of **32.91 HKD**, representing a **17.54%** upside from the current price [2][5] Core Views - Xiaomi's smartphone, IoT, and automotive businesses are entering a positive growth cycle, with revenue slightly exceeding expectations and strong cash reserves [2] - The company achieved **925 billion RMB** in revenue in Q3 2024, a **30.5% YoY increase**, with adjusted net profit reaching **63 billion RMB**, up **18.7% YoY** [2] - Cash reserves stood at **1516 billion RMB**, reflecting a **9.7% YoY growth** [2] Smartphone Business - Xiaomi's smartphone business is showing initial success in the high-end market, with revenue reaching **828 billion RMB**, a **16.8% YoY increase** [2] - Shipments grew **3.1% YoY** to **431 million units**, driven by increased domestic high-end smartphone shipments and a **10.6% YoY increase in ASP** to **1102 RMB** [2] - The newly launched Xiaomi 15 series achieved strong sales, with expectations of further competitiveness in the **4000-6000 RMB price segment** [2] IoT Business - IoT revenue reached **261 billion RMB**, a **26.3% YoY increase**, with gross margin hitting a record high of **20.8%**, up **2.9 percentage points YoY** [2] - Strong performance in domestic smart home appliances and global tablet/wearable businesses is expected to continue benefiting from national subsidies and holiday promotions [2] Internet Services - Internet services revenue grew **9.1% YoY** to **85 billion RMB**, with gross margin improving **3.1 percentage points YoY** to **77.5%** [2] - Global MAUs reached **686 million**, a **10.1% YoY increase**, with overseas internet services revenue growing **18.3% YoY** to **27 billion RMB** [2] Automotive Business - Xiaomi's automotive business delivered **39,790 units** in Q3 2024, with monthly deliveries stabilizing at **10,000 units** [2] - The company aims to achieve **200,000 units** in annual deliveries, with gross margin improving **1.7 percentage points YoY** to **17.1%** [2] - The SU7 Ultra model, with an ASP of **239,000 RMB**, is expected to drive profitability as scale expands and promotional costs decrease [2] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from **355.9 billion RMB** in 2024 to **518.4 billion RMB** in 2026, with net profit increasing from **19.9 billion RMB** to **31.8 billion RMB** over the same period [5] - Adjusted net profit is expected to rise from **25.1 billion RMB** in 2024 to **37.1 billion RMB** in 2026 [5] Valuation - The target price of **32.91 HKD** is based on **18x PE** for core businesses and **12x PS** for the automotive segment, implying a **17.54% upside** [5]