Investment Rating - The report maintains an Overweight (OW) rating on US stocks, Treasuries, and US Investment Grade Corporate Credit, emphasizing a focus on quality assets [3][4][5]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant structural shock to the global trading order due to the broad imposition of tariffs by the US, leading to a forecasted slowdown in global growth from 3.5% in 2024 to 2.5% in 2025 [2][7]. - The US economy is expected to experience a decline in real GDP growth from 2.5% in 2024 to 1.0% in both 2025 and 2026, with asymmetric risks associated with the trade shock [2][12]. - Despite the slowdown, risky assets may perform well, and treasuries are expected to rally due to anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 [2][3]. Economic Outlook - Global growth is projected to slow, with the US facing additional drags from immigration restrictions and tariffs impacting demand and supply [7][12]. - The euro area is expected to see a decline in exports and investment due to tariffs, while China's demand shock is only partially mitigated by modest policy stimulus [7][12]. - Japan's nominal GDP reflation remains intact, but global economic slowdown is expected to weigh on exports and investment [7]. Sector Recommendations - In the US, the report favors quality cyclicals, large caps, and defensives with lower leverage and cheaper valuations [5]. - Key sectors recommended for Europe include defense, banks, software, telecoms, and diversified financials, with a cautious stance on cyclical exporters [5]. - Emerging markets are favored towards financials and profitability leaders, with a preference for domestic-focused businesses over exporters [5]. Earnings Forecasts - The report provides earnings forecasts for major indices, with the S&P 500 expected to reach a price target of 6,500 by June 2026, reflecting a year-over-year EPS growth of 7% in 2025 and 9% in 2026 [6]. - The MSCI Europe index is projected to have a price target of 2,250, with modest EPS growth of 1.3% in 2025 and 2.2% in 2026 [6]. Currency and Commodities Outlook - The report anticipates a significant depreciation of the USD due to fading growth and yield differentials compared to the rest of the world [3][15]. - Oil prices are expected to face downward pressure due to potential supply increases, leading to a reduction in Brent forecasts by $5-10 per barrel [17]. - Gold is highlighted as a top pick due to strong central bank demand and safe-haven appeal amid growth concerns [19].

Investment Rating - The report indicates that approximately 10% of the total coverage faces significant potential impact from tariffs, with specific sectors such as Japan electronics and Autos being highly exposed [2][8]. Core Insights - The de-escalation of US tariffs has lifted some near-term risks, but confidence levels remain fragile as companies implement mitigation strategies like supply chain shifts and cost pass-through [3][4]. - Japanese automakers exhibit the highest exposure to tariffs, with Nissan facing a 509% impact on operating profits and Mazda a 191% impact [11]. - Companies across various sectors are adopting diverse strategies to manage tariff challenges, including price increases and supply chain adjustments [24][25]. Sector Summaries Autos and Auto Parts - Japanese automakers are significantly impacted, with 90% of electronics companies facing substantial tariff challenges [8][11]. - Auto parts companies in China and India are also affected, with Sona BLW Precision Forgings seeing opportunities to gain market share due to its low-cost structure [11][12]. Basic Materials - Companies like Arafura Rare Earths and Lynas Rare Earths benefit from rising rare earth prices due to China's export controls, aiding capital raising for projects [19][20]. - Australian companies face mixed effects, with some benefiting from US steel prices while others encounter export challenges [19][20]. Consumer - Companies are managing tariff challenges through strategic supply chain management and pricing strategies, with Japanese and Taiwanese firms planning to offset costs by increasing consumer prices [24][25]. - Chinese companies like Haier Smart Home are proactively addressing tariff issues by passing partial costs to suppliers and strengthening supply chains in Southeast Asia [24][25]. Healthcare - Healthcare companies are exploring tariff exemptions to mitigate immediate impacts, while some are passing costs on to consumers [4][8]. - The sector shows varied exposure, with some companies indicating significant impacts from tariffs [9]. Technology - Technology companies in Taiwan and South Korea are particularly exposed to tariff impacts, with ongoing tensions surrounding US-China semiconductor trade restrictions posing a threat [8][9]. - Japanese electronics companies are also facing substantial challenges, with 90% of the sector under coverage affected [8][11].

May 22, 2025 09:40 PM GMT Global Macro Commentary | Global May 22 UST yields retreat after sharp sell-off; mixed US economic data; SOFR swap spreads widen as sentiment is boosted; Bunds rally after soft Euro Area PMI; BoJ's Noguchi sees no need to change QT plan; NZD underperforms after budget release; DXY at 99.93 (0.4%); US 10y at 4.529% (-7.0bp) The next Global Macro Commentary will be published on Tuesday, May 27. Please refer to our latest Global Insight (Global Strategy Mid-Year Outlook: All Eyes on U ...

摩根大通坚持长期投资导向，并未撤出中国市场，将继续服务跨国企业和协助中国企业走 向全球。 摩根大通CEO在上海摩根大通全球中国峰会期间的访谈 全球经济面临多重挑战，包括财政赤字、地缘政治紧张和贸易结构重组，这些因素可能导 致通胀压力，市场可能尚未充分反映这些风险。 当前信用利差较低，可能面临信用利差扩大和利率上升的双重压力，对经济持续软着陆持 谨慎态度。 Q&A 你一直强调市场存在极大的自满情绪，未能将风险充分计入定价。结合昨夜收益率的表 现，这是否反映了风险正在被计入？ 当前处于高收益环境，你曾表示全球市场可能出现某种形式的反抗，这种可能性是否依然 存在？具体可能表现为何种形式？ 美联储虽设定短期利率，但需根据全球投资者行为和经济数据做出反应，当前经济并非处 于"最佳状态"，仍面临多重风险。 我并不认为目前属于高收益环境。从经济史来看，利率曾远高于当前水平，并且往往会超 出市场预期。我认为许多长期趋势都具有通胀属性。对于电视观众而言，当前信用利差处 于低位，因此可能同时面临信用利差扩大和利率上升的双重压力。未来如何演变还有待观 察，我不愿意做出具体预测。总体而言，我持谨慎态度，对于经济实现持续软着陆持一定 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating for China Autos & Shared Mobility is "In-Line" [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights the significant market share of China in the global automotive sector, with China expected to sell 22.6 million passenger vehicles in 2025, representing 26.4% of the global market [9]. - Electric vehicle (EV) sales in China are projected to reach 7.1 million units in 2025, accounting for 52.7% of global EV sales [9]. - The report emphasizes the increasing penetration of EVs in China, with projections showing a rise from 12.4% in 2022 to 39.8% by 2030 [12]. - A robust pipeline of new models from various OEMs is anticipated, with several launches scheduled for mid-2025 [14]. - The growth of passenger vehicle exports from China is notable, with exports increasing from 760,000 units in 2020 to an estimated 4.941 million units by 2024 [18]. Summary by Sections Global Market Overview - The global passenger vehicle market is projected to reach 85.4 million units in 2025, with significant contributions from China [9]. Electric Vehicle Insights - The report outlines the expected growth in EV penetration, with China leading the charge in both production and sales [11][12]. New Model Pipeline - A detailed list of upcoming vehicle models from various manufacturers is provided, indicating a competitive landscape in the EV sector [14]. Export Growth - The report notes a substantial increase in passenger vehicle exports from China, highlighting the country's growing influence in the global automotive market [18]. Collaboration and Competition - The report discusses the evolving dynamics of competition among automotive manufacturers, emphasizing collaboration as a key strategy for innovation and cost reduction [21]. Focus Areas for OEMs - Future focus areas for automotive OEMs include AI-enabled smart cockpits, autonomous vehicles, and humanoid robotics, indicating a shift towards advanced technology integration [24].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The G7 net DV01 is projected to be $85.2 million per basis point, which is higher than the average of $66.2 million per basis point, indicating increased market activity [2][12] - In the euro area, net issuance is expected to be -€11.3 billion over the next five weeks, with a total supply of €113.9 billion against €25.2 billion in coupons and €100 billion in redemptions [3][36] - The US is anticipated to issue a total of $529 billion over the next five weeks, resulting in a net issuance of $321.2 billion after accounting for $27.5 billion in coupons and $180.3 billion in redemptions [5][39] Summary by Sections Government Bond Auctions - The report outlines upcoming government bond auctions across various countries, including the US, UK, Eurozone, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, and Canada, detailing expected issuance amounts [4][6][7] Issuance Overview - In the UK, expected issuance includes £2.75 billion for UKT 0.875% Gilt 2033 and £1.25 billion for UKTi 0.125% Gilt 2031 [4] - Japan plans to issue ¥0.5 trillion for a 40-year JGB and ¥2.6 trillion for a 2-year JGB [6] - Canada is expected to issue a new 10-year CAN for approximately $5.25 billion [7] G7 Gross and Net Issuance - The report provides detailed estimates of gross issuance and net DV01 for G7 countries, highlighting fluctuations in issuance amounts over recent weeks [12][19] - The US shows significant net issuance activity, with a notable increase in DV01, indicating robust market conditions [21][34]

Investment Ratings - Pure Storage Inc (PSTG): Price Target increased from $40.00 to $62.00 [1] - NetApp Inc (NTAP): Price Target increased from $84.00 to $106.00 [1] - Nutanix Inc (NTNX): Price Target increased from $75.00 to $90.00 [1] - Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE): Price Target increased from $14.00 to $22.00 [1] Core Insights - The storage market has seen a 10%+ increase since pre-April 2, but there are concerns about overly positive stock leanings heading into earnings reports [1][3] - The report indicates a cautious outlook on storage spending due to budget prioritization and potential macroeconomic air pockets [3][6] - Nutanix is viewed positively due to strong reseller performance and partnerships, while NetApp is seen as weaker due to conservative guidance and market competition [3][6][14] Summary by Company Pure Storage Inc (PSTG) - Strong performance noted among resellers, with expectations for gross margins at 69.6% for FQ1 [12][13] - Any top-line weakness may arise from customers opting for the Evergreen model, which offers operational expenditure benefits [13] - Price Target raised to $62, reflecting a more favorable tariff risk outlook [25] Nutanix Inc (NTNX) - Nutanix is expected to report strong earnings, with positive checks indicating resilience despite mid-market weaknesses [14][15] - The company is positioned well for share gains from VMware transitions and has strong partnerships with Dell and Cisco [17][75] - Price Target increased to $90, aligning with software industry multiples [26] NetApp Inc (NTAP) - NetApp's performance is viewed as weak, with expectations for conservative FY26 guidance due to macroeconomic uncertainties [18][19] - Price Target raised to $106, reflecting a cautious outlook amid competitive pressures [27] Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) - HPE's results are expected to be mixed, with storage business benefiting from server sales but overall performance limited by macroeconomic factors [23][24] - Price Target increased to $22, with a focus on the potential impact of tariffs and ongoing involvement from activist investors [28]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or specific companies covered [21]. Core Insights - The report highlights a rebound in China's Manufacturing PMI to 50.3 in May from 49 in April, indicating a recovery in manufacturing activity [3]. - The Bank of Korea (BOK) is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points and revise its growth forecast down from 1.5% to a range of 1.0-1.1% [5][9]. - In Australia, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April is reported at 2.4%, with construction work done increasing by 0.5% quarter-on-quarter and 1.4% year-on-year [9][12]. - Retail sales in Australia showed a modest increase of 0.2% month-on-month and 4.3% year-on-year, reflecting cautious consumer sentiment [9][12]. - Japan's Consumer Confidence Index stands at 32.5 in May, with retail sales increasing by 3.0% year-on-year [10]. Summary by Relevant Sections China - Manufacturing PMI rebounded to 50.3 in May, indicating improved manufacturing conditions [3]. Korea - BOK is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points, with a revised growth forecast of 1.0-1.1% [5][9]. Australia - CPI for April is at 2.4%, with construction work done increasing by 0.5% quarter-on-quarter and 1.4% year-on-year [9][12]. - Retail sales increased by 0.2% month-on-month and 4.3% year-on-year, indicating cautious consumer behavior [9][12]. Japan - Consumer Confidence Index is at 32.5 in May, with retail sales up by 3.0% year-on-year [10].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a significant reduction in the US effective tariff rate from 145% to 39%, which has led to a lowered recession probability from 60% to 40% [2][5]. Core Insights - The trade war between the US and China has seen a de-escalation, with tariffs on Chinese products significantly reduced, impacting global economic forecasts positively [2][5]. - Despite the reduction in tariffs, risks remain tilted to the downside due to potential re-intensification of the trade war and sector-specific tariffs that could increase the effective US tariff rate [5][12]. - The direct global growth drag from tariffs is now estimated at 0.5 percentage points, down from previous estimates, but could rise to 0.8 percentage points if 25% tariffs are imposed on currently exempt sectors [22][26]. Summary by Sections Tariff Changes - The US effective tariff rate has decreased to 39%, while China's tariff on US imports is now at 28%, resulting in a nearly 10 percentage point reduction in the effective US tariff rate to 13.4% [2][12]. - The report anticipates that the US will maintain a baseline tariff of around 10% for most countries, with potential sector-specific tariffs increasing the overall effective rate [8][11]. Economic Impact - The report highlights that the direct impact of tariffs on global GDP has been scaled back, with the US and China experiencing reduced growth hits of 0.6% and 0.7% respectively [26][28]. - The overall GDP forecasts for the US and China have been upgraded by 0.6 and 1.3 percentage points, respectively, reflecting improved economic conditions [26][28]. Sector-Specific Risks - The report notes that sectoral tariffs could lead to significant increases in effective tariff rates, particularly affecting countries like Taiwan, which could see its effective tariff rise from 4.8% to as high as 12.3% or 23.5% depending on the tariff rate applied [16][18]. - The ongoing Section 232 investigations may result in additional tariffs on strategic sectors, which could further impact economic growth and trade dynamics [16][18].