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上海复旦:存量市场竞争激烈,FPGA产品毛利率阶段性承压
First Shanghai Securities· 2024-12-03 05:54
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Hold" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 16.00, indicating a potential upside of 4.9% from the current price of HKD 15.28 [2][4]. Core Views - The company is facing intense competition in the existing market, leading to pressure on various business segments and a slight decline in gross margins. The overall gross margin is expected to decrease by 5% this year [2][4]. - The company's revenue for Q3 2024 was reported at RMB 889 million, a year-on-year decline of 5.5%. The revenue breakdown includes safety and identification chips, smart meter chips, and FPGA products, with notable declines in gross margins for FPGA and other chips [2][4]. - The smart meter business saw a year-on-year growth of 28.9%, driven by increased bidding demand, with revenue reaching RMB 320 million [2][4]. - The company is actively expanding into automotive electronics and smart home sectors, with ongoing development in high-reliability embedded flash memory processes [2][4]. Financial Summary - The company reported total revenue of RMB 3,536 million for 2023, with a slight decrease from 2022. The net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 719 million, reflecting a significant decline of 33.38% year-on-year [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 was RMB 0.88, down from RMB 1.32 in 2022. The projected EPS for 2024 is RMB 0.63, indicating a continued downward trend [4]. - The company’s EBITDA for 2023 was RMB 994 million, with a margin of 28.1%, down from 36.7% in 2022 [4]. - The financial outlook for the next three years anticipates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.1% for revenue and 9.1% for net profit [2][4].
比亚迪股份:2024Q3业绩符合预期,11月新车销量保持增长


First Shanghai Securities· 2024-12-03 05:54
Investment Rating - Buy rating with a target price of HKD 328.3, representing a 29.44% upside from the current price [1] Core Views - Q3 2024 results met expectations with revenue of RMB 502.2 billion (+18.9% YoY) and net profit of RMB 25.2 billion (+18.1% YoY) [1] - Q3 gross margin improved to 21.9%, up 3.2 percentage points QoQ, driven by economies of scale in NEV sales [1] - November NEV sales reached 504,000 units (+67% YoY, +1% MoM), with DM5.0 models driving strong PHEV sales of 306,000 units (+133% YoY) [1] - Full-year 2024 NEV sales expected to exceed 4.1 million units, supported by strong DM5.0 model sales and government subsidies [1] - 2025 is expected to be a breakthrough year for BEV models with new platform launches, further boosting profitability [1] Financial Performance Revenue & Profitability - Q3 revenue reached RMB 201.1 billion (+14.2% QoQ), with net profit of RMB 11.6 billion (+28% QoQ) [1] - Auto business revenue in Q3 was RMB 157.58 billion (+18% QoQ), with gross margin improving to 26% (+4 ppts QoQ) [1] - 2024-2026 revenue forecast at RMB 780.1/953.3/1,130.6 billion, with net profit of RMB 37.5/45.8/55.9 billion [2][4] - Gross margin expected to improve from 20.2% in 2023 to 22.6% by 2026 [4] Vehicle Sales & Profitability - YTD November 2024 sales reached 3.74 million units (+40% YoY), with premium brands (Denza, Fang Cheng Bao, Yangwang) contributing 163,000 units (+39.4% YoY) [1] - Q3 vehicle ASP increased to RMB 139,500 (+RMB 3,000 QoQ) due to higher-priced DM5.0 models [1] - Q3 vehicle profit per unit rose to RMB 9,400 (+RMB 8,000 QoQ), expected to remain stable in Q4 [1] International Expansion - November overseas sales reached 31,000 units, with YTD exports at 360,000 units (+74% YoY) [1] Valuation & Forecast - 2025 target valuation of HKD 888.1 billion based on 20x PE for auto business and 15x PE for electronics [1] - 2024-2026 EPS forecast at RMB 12.87/15.74/19.20, with P/E ratios of 18.3x/15.0x/12.3x [2][4] - Dividend yield expected to increase from 1% in 2023 to 2% by 2026 [2]
速腾聚创:主业获多家定点,机器人业务增长迅速
First Shanghai Securities· 2024-12-03 05:23
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 31.77, representing a potential upside of 53.11% from the current price of HKD 20.75 [4]. Core Insights - The company has achieved significant revenue growth, with a reported revenue of RMB 1.13 billion for the first three quarters, marking a year-on-year increase of 69% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 54.7% [4]. - The gross profit margin has improved due to economies of scale, reaching 17.5% in Q3, up from previous periods [4]. - The company has secured contracts with several major automotive manufacturers, including both domestic and international brands, for its advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) [4]. - The ADAS product revenue reached RMB 3.3 billion in Q3, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 87.1% and a shipment increase of 150% [4]. - The company is expected to rapidly increase its product penetration in the smart vehicle market, particularly in the RMB 150,000 to 200,000 segment [4]. Financial Summary - The company reported total revenue of RMB 1,120.15 million for 2023, with projections of RMB 1,645.64 million for 2024 and RMB 3,200.15 million for 2025 [6]. - The adjusted net profit is forecasted to improve from a loss of RMB 4.33 billion in 2023 to a loss of RMB 460.46 million in 2024, and a profit of RMB 37.57 million in 2025 [6]. - The gross margin is expected to increase from 8.36% in 2023 to 20.35% in 2025, indicating improved profitability [6]. - The company’s total assets are projected to be RMB 3.27 billion in 2023, with a slight decrease to RMB 2.61 billion in 2024, before recovering to RMB 3.42 billion in 2025 [6].
汇量科技:AI驱动的移动广告和行销技术平台
First Shanghai Securities· 2024-12-02 08:38
Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for Mobvista (1860 HK) [2] Core Business - Mobvista is a global leader in mobile advertising and marketing technology, primarily serving mobile app developers and helping Chinese developers expand overseas [2] - The company focuses on programmatic advertising and data-driven marketing, with its core business relying on the Mintegral platform [2] - Key business segments include: (i) programmatic advertising solutions, (ii) data analytics and operations services, (iii) SaaS tool matrix development and sales, and (iv) multi-scenario traffic monetization services [2] - Advertising technology accounts for 98 6% of revenue, with programmatic advertising being the major contributor, while marketing technology currently represents 1 4% of revenue but is in a rapid expansion phase [2] Market Outlook - The global mobile advertising and marketing technology market is expected to exceed $500 billion by 2025, with programmatic advertising growing at a 16 2% CAGR [2] - Mid-tail and long-tail traffic are becoming increasingly important due to privacy protection and antitrust policies, presenting significant growth opportunities [2] Competitive Landscape - The global ad tech platform market is dominated by Google AdMob and Meta Audience Network in the head traffic segment, while mid-tail and long-tail traffic are controlled by programmatic advertising platforms including AppLovin, Unity Ads, and Mintegral [2] - Mobvista has strengthened its competitiveness in ROI improvement for advertisers, global traffic coverage, and data analytics efficiency through continuous algorithm optimization and service enhancement [2] Future Prospects - The company plans to focus on advertising services for mid-core games, utility apps, and e-commerce sectors, which are experiencing rapid growth [2] - The mid-core game sector, in particular, is expected to reach a market potential of hundreds of billions of dollars by 2025 due to the popularity of hybrid monetization models [2] - Mintegral platform currently handles trillions of ad requests annually, with revenue and profit steadily increasing alongside global business expansion [2]
宁德时代:毛利率大幅提升,新产品发布引领创新
First Shanghai Securities· 2024-12-02 08:02
Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for the company with a target price of **310.4 RMB**, representing an **18.83% upside** from the current price [3][7] Core Views - The company's **gross margin improved significantly** to **31.2%** in Q3 2024, driven by lower raw material costs and technological premiums from new product installations [3] - **Battery shipments grew strongly**, with global market share reaching **64.9%** in the first 8 months of 2024 and domestic market share increasing to **45.9%**, up **3.1 percentage points** year-over-year [3] - The company launched a new **hybrid battery "XiaoYao"** with a pure electric range of over **400 km** and **4C ultra-fast charging** capability, which has been adopted by multiple brands including Li Auto, Avatr, and Deepal [3] - Overseas expansion is progressing steadily, with **8 factories** already built or under construction in Europe, including a new remanufacturing center in Hungary expected to be completed by **2026** [3] Financial Performance - **Revenue** for the first three quarters of 2024 reached **360.0 billion RMB**, a **19.3% year-over-year increase** [3] - **Net profit attributable to shareholders** was **131.36 billion RMB** in Q3 2024, with a **net profit margin of 15.6%** [3] - The company's **battery shipments** in Q3 2024 totaled **125 GWh**, including **30 GWh** of energy storage batteries, a **60% year-over-year increase** [3] - **Revenue** is forecasted to grow to **520.7 billion RMB** by 2026, with **net profit attributable to shareholders** expected to reach **71.4 billion RMB** [7] Market Position and Growth - The company continues to lead the global power battery market, with a **64.9% share** in the first 8 months of 2024 [3] - Domestic market share increased to **45.9%**, up **3.1 percentage points** year-over-year [3] - The company expects **20% year-over-year growth** in battery shipments in 2025, driven by strong domestic and international demand [3] Product Innovation - The new **hybrid battery "XiaoYao"** features a **400 km pure electric range** and **4C ultra-fast charging**, enabling a **280 km range** with just **10 minutes of charging** [3] - The battery incorporates **lithium-sodium integration technology**, allowing operation in temperatures as low as **-40°C** [3] - By **2025**, nearly **30 hybrid models** from brands including Geely, Chery, and GAC are expected to adopt the XiaoYao battery [3] Overseas Expansion - The company is accelerating its **battery recycling business** in Europe, with a remanufacturing center in Hungary expected to be completed by **2026** [3] - The German factory is ramping up production smoothly, aiming to achieve **break-even** within the year [3] - The first phase of the Hungary plant is progressing steadily, with production expected to start next year [3]
英伟达:Blackwell四季度出货超预期,25年推理需求强劲
First Shanghai Securities· 2024-11-29 03:28
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of $160, indicating a potential upside of 16.85% from the current price [2][31]. Core Insights - The company reported Q3 FY2025 revenue of $35.1 billion, a year-over-year increase of 93.6%, significantly exceeding the guidance of $32.5 billion and Bloomberg consensus of $33.3 billion [5][4]. - The gross margin for the quarter was 74.6%, slightly down from the previous quarter but above the company's guidance and in line with expectations [5][6]. - Operating profit reached $21.9 billion, up 109.9% year-over-year, with an operating margin of 62.3%, reflecting strong demand for Hopper GPUs [5][6]. - The company generated free cash flow of $16.8 billion during the quarter, compared to $7 billion in the same period last year [6]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company expects Q4 FY2025 revenue to be around $37.5 billion, representing a year-over-year growth of 69.7%, which is above Bloomberg's consensus of $37 billion [8]. - The projected revenue CAGR for FY2025-2027 is 60.1%, with GAAP EPS CAGR expected to be 67.7% [32]. Business Segments Performance - Data center revenue for Q3 FY2025 was $30.77 billion, a 112% increase year-over-year, driven by demand for large models and generative AI [15]. - Gaming revenue for Q3 FY2025 was $3.28 billion, up 15% year-over-year, primarily due to sales of the RTX 40 series [23]. - The professional visualization segment reported revenue of $490 million, a 17% increase year-over-year, with AI driving demand [27]. - Automotive revenue reached $450 million, a 72% increase year-over-year, fueled by the demand for smart driving chips [27]. Strategic Developments - The company is focusing on the Blackwell platform, which is expected to generate significant revenue in the upcoming quarters, with strong demand from major clients like Dell and Microsoft [8][20]. - The software business is also anticipated to grow, with annualized revenue reaching $1.5 billion, expected to exceed $2 billion in the next quarter [21]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The company is well-positioned in the AI and data center markets, benefiting from the shift towards cloud infrastructure and accelerated computing [20]. - The report highlights the importance of maintaining a competitive edge in GPU performance and CUDA optimization to sustain growth [35].
中国石油股份:业绩符合预期,天然气业务增速明显

First Shanghai Securities· 2024-11-29 03:27
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 7.03, indicating a potential upside of 26.6% from the current price of HKD 5.55 [2][4]. Core Insights - The company's performance met expectations, with significant growth in the natural gas business, despite a decline in oil sales revenue due to fluctuating oil prices [2][4]. - The oil and new energy segments showed a year-on-year production increase of 2.1%, with total oil equivalent production reaching 1443 million barrels [2][4]. - The refining segment experienced a profit decrease, while the chemical segment showed profit growth, indicating a mixed performance across different business units [2][4]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenue of RMB 702.41 billion, a decrease of 5.3% year-on-year, and a net profit of RMB 132.52 billion, an increase of 0.7% year-on-year [2][4]. - The average crude oil price for the first three quarters was USD 76.88 per barrel, with natural gas sales volume reaching 1629.6 billion cubic meters, reflecting a 30% increase in operating profit for the natural gas segment [2][4]. - The company’s refining throughput was 1036.2 million barrels, with gasoline production decreasing by 2.7% to 8990 million tons, while kerosene production saw a significant increase [2][4]. Revenue and Profitability Forecast - The forecasted revenues for 2024-2026 are RMB 3.10 trillion, RMB 3.11 trillion, and RMB 3.16 trillion respectively, with net profits projected at RMB 180.1 billion and RMB 186.0 billion for the same period [2][4]. - The report anticipates a net profit growth rate of 7 times PE for the years 2024-2026, supporting the bullish outlook on the company's stock [2][4].


荣昌生物:费用管控成效显著,集中资源加速重点管线推进
First Shanghai Securities· 2024-11-29 03:27
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 23.95, indicating a potential upside of 40.7% from the current price [4]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated significant revenue growth, achieving Q3 revenue of CNY 467 million, a year-on-year increase of 34.6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 13.6%. Cumulatively, revenue for the first three quarters grew by 57.1% [1]. - Cost control measures have led to a notable reduction in losses, with Q3 net loss narrowing by 32.6% to CNY 291 million. The gross margin for Q3 improved to 82.1%, up 4.1 percentage points from the previous quarter [1]. - The company is focusing resources on key pipelines, with several clinical trials progressing well, including the completion of patient enrollment for various Phase III trials [3]. Financial Performance - The company reported a cash and cash equivalents balance of CNY 1.12 billion as of September 30, with a loan credit line of CNY 2.8 billion [1]. - The sales revenue for the product 泰它西普 reached approximately CNY 270 million in Q3, reflecting a year-on-year growth of about 43% [2]. - The projected revenues for the company for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 are CNY 1.624 billion, CNY 2.411 billion, and CNY 3.243 billion, respectively [4].
贝壳-W:二赛道业务收入贡献持续提升,可持续成长动力充足

First Shanghai Securities· 2024-11-29 03:27
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2]. Core Views - The company is expected to see continuous growth driven by its dual business segments, with significant contributions from home decoration and rental services [2]. - Adjusted net profit for Q3 2024 reached 73.68 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12.5% [2]. - The company’s total transaction volume increased by 26.8%, indicating strong market performance [2]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for Q3 2024 was 62 billion RMB, stable compared to the previous year, with a net income of 77 billion RMB, up 30.9% year-on-year [2]. - The gross profit margin for the period was 22.7%, a decrease attributed to rising fixed salary costs and a decline in the profit margin from existing home sales [2]. - The adjusted net profit for the year is projected to be 80 billion RMB, 96 billion RMB, and 109 billion RMB for the next three years, respectively [2]. Business Segment Analysis - The existing home business saw a decline in profit margin, while the new home business outperformed expectations, with transaction volume reaching 4,778 billion RMB, an increase of 8.8% year-on-year [2]. - The new home business generated a transaction fee rate of 3.4%, achieving a historical high, with commission income from state-owned developers rising to 58% [2]. - Revenue from home decoration and rental services grew by 62.0% year-on-year, contributing to 35.8% of total revenue, marking a historical high [2]. Market Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from recent policy adjustments in real estate credit and transaction taxes, which are likely to lead to significant growth in overall transaction volume [2]. - The target price for the company's stock is set at 66.9 HKD / 25.6 USD, based on a projected PE ratio of 15 times for 2025 [2].
苹果:iPhone量价小幅增长,AI为未来软硬件收入成长关键
First Shanghai Securities· 2024-11-27 13:31
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the company with a target price of $255.00, indicating a potential upside of 9.50% from the current stock price of $232.87 [2][4][17]. Core Insights - The company reported total revenue of $94.9 billion for the quarter, a year-over-year increase of 6.1%, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate of $94.4 billion. Product revenue was $70 billion, up 4.1%, while service revenue reached $25 billion, growing 11.9% [15][21]. - The gross profit was $43.9 billion, with a gross margin of 46.2%, exceeding the expected 46.0%. However, net profit fell to $14.7 billion, a decline of 35.8% year-over-year due to a one-time tax payment of $10.2 billion [15][22]. - The report highlights the launch of the iPhone 16, which features upgraded memory and processing capabilities, and anticipates that AI developments will drive future growth in both hardware and software revenues [16][38]. Financial Summary - The company’s net profit projections for FY2024 to FY2027 are as follows: $93.7 billion, $110.9 billion, $119.3 billion, and $126.5 billion respectively, with diluted earnings per share (EPS) expected to grow from $6.1 to $8.9 over the same period [12][17]. - Total operating revenue forecasts for the next few years are $391.0 billion for FY2024, $415.6 billion for FY2025, $442.3 billion for FY2026, and $464.0 billion for FY2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.9% [13][49]. - The report indicates that the company’s cash and cash equivalents stood at $15.7 billion, with a net cash position of $5 billion, and it returned over $29 billion to shareholders through stock buybacks and dividends [22][37]. Product Performance - iPhone revenue for the quarter was $46.2 billion, showing a 6% year-over-year increase, with an average selling price (ASP) of $825, up $8 from the previous year [32][36]. - Service revenue reached $25 billion, marking a 12% increase, with over 1 billion paid subscribers across various services [37][40]. - The iPad and Mac segments showed growth, with iPad revenue at $7 billion (up 8%) and Mac revenue at $7.7 billion (up 2%), while wearables and accessories saw a decline of 3% to $9 billion [42][44]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates that the overall revenue growth for FY25Q1 will be in the low to mid-single digits, with gross margins expected to remain between 46% and 47% [15][26]. - The company is expected to benefit from a growing user base in India, with projected hardware sales exceeding $20 billion in the coming years [25].