華潤電力（836） 更新報告 火電盈利逐步釋放，新能源裝機加速投產 上半年盈利持續改善： 2024 年上半年公司取得營業收入 511 億港元， 同比基本持平，實現歸母淨利潤 93.63 億港元，同比增長 38.9%。其中可 再生能源核心業務歸母利潤為 55.56 億港元，同比減少 6.7%，火電業務 實現盈利 27 億港元，同比增長 232%，由原料成本下降所貢獻的核心利潤 為 27 億港元。公司計畫中期派息每股 0.455 港元/股。 火電降本顯著，盈利大幅釋放：公司上半年火電售電量同比增長 3.3%。得益于煤炭供給相對寬鬆，上半年煤炭價格大幅下降，公司上半 年單位燃料成本同比下降 10.7%，火電盈利能力持續修復。此外，火電輔 助服務貢獻收入 7.87 億元，新能源業務輔助服務費用支出約 3.44 億 元，淨盈利 4.43 億元，同比增長 5%。公司上半年火電業務毛利率同比提 升 9.6pct,處於行業領先地位。 新能源盈利受風速影響承壓，裝機加速兌現：截至 7 月底，公司累 計新增裝機已超過 1100 兆瓦。風電、光伏得益於新投產的機組使得售電 量分別同比增長 6.9%/204.9%。但由於上半年氣候條 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 26.43, indicating a potential upside of 38.5% from the current price of HKD 19.08 [2]. Core Insights - The company achieved a record net profit of HKD 797 billion in the first half of the year, representing a 25% year-on-year increase. Revenue for the same period was HKD 2268 billion, up 18% year-on-year [1]. - The total oil and gas production reached 362.6 million barrels of oil equivalent, a 9.3% increase year-on-year, with oil prices averaging USD 80.32 per barrel, up 9.2% year-on-year [1]. - The company continues to focus on increasing reserves and production, aiming for a reserve replacement ratio of no less than 130% and a production target of 700-720 million barrels of oil equivalent for 2024 [1]. Financial Performance - The company reported a significant increase in revenue from oil liquid products, which reached HKD 1613 billion, a 24% increase year-on-year, while natural gas product revenue was HKD 239 billion, up 9.7% year-on-year [1]. - The average cost per barrel of oil equivalent decreased to USD 27.75, a 1.5% decline year-on-year, with operational costs down by 4.8% due to increased production and currency fluctuations [1]. - The interim dividend for 2024 was set at HKD 0.74 per share, a historical high for the same period, with a payout ratio of 40.3%, reflecting a 25.4% increase year-on-year [1]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are estimated at HKD 451.4 billion, HKD 471.0 billion, and HKD 481.7 billion respectively, with net profits expected to be HKD 145.2 billion, HKD 151.2 billion, and HKD 155.4 billion [2][4]. - The report anticipates an 8x PE valuation for 2024, supporting the target price of HKD 26.43 [2].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 8.07, indicating a potential upside of 36.1% from the current price of HKD 5.93 [1]. Core Insights - The company achieved a record high in interim dividends, with a cash dividend payout ratio of 45% [1]. - The natural gas business is experiencing rapid growth, contributing to revenue and profit increases [1]. - The oil and gas segment reported revenue of RMB 4,497 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, while the chemical segment turned a profit of RMB 3.126 billion, recovering from a loss in the previous year [1]. - The company is focusing on green transformation through acquisitions, such as the 100% stake in CNOOC Power [1]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2024, the company reported revenue of RMB 1,553.9 billion, a decrease of 5% year-on-year, and a net profit of RMB 88.6 billion, an increase of 3.9% [1]. - The average oil price increased, and domestic natural gas business volume and prices rose, leading to revenue and profit growth [1]. - The company processed 693 million barrels of crude oil, a 3% increase year-on-year, while total oil equivalent production reached 906 million barrels, up 1.3% [1]. - Natural gas sales reached 147.2 billion cubic meters, a 5.8% increase, with revenue from this segment growing by 7.9% [1]. Business Segment Analysis - The refining business faced challenges, with operating profit declining by 43% to RMB 10.5 billion, while the chemical segment saw a turnaround with a profit of RMB 3.126 billion [1]. - The sales of refined oil products decreased by 2% to 79.05 million tons due to the growth of domestic electric vehicles and extreme weather conditions [1]. - The company is actively reducing international procurement costs in the natural gas sector, anticipating continued growth in the second half of the year [1].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Bilibili with a target price of $21.00 USD / 163.77 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 36.61% / 35.01% from the current stock price [2][6][3]. Core Insights - Bilibili's Q2 revenue reached 6.13 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 15.5%, slightly above market expectations. The gross margin improved to 29.9%, up 6.8 percentage points, primarily driven by the growth in high-margin advertising and gaming businesses [2][4]. - The company expects to achieve Non-GAAP operating profit in Q3, with revenue projected to grow by 22.4% year-on-year to 7.1 billion RMB, and gross margin expected to increase to 35% [2][4]. - The advertising business is benefiting from increased demand in gaming and e-commerce, with annual advertising revenue expected to grow by 24% [2][4]. - User metrics show steady growth, with DAU increasing by 5.2% to 100 million and MAU growing by 3.7% to 340 million [2][4]. - The gaming segment is projected to generate significant revenue, with expectations of 2.5 billion RMB in 2024 and 5 billion RMB in 2025 from the game "Three Kingdoms" [2][4]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for the fiscal year ending December 31 is forecasted to grow from 22.53 billion RMB in 2023 to 31.25 billion RMB by 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.8% [4][5]. - The net profit is expected to improve from a loss of 1.3 billion RMB in 2024 to a profit of 1.58 billion RMB in 2026, with net profit margins turning positive by 2025 [4][5]. - The gross margin is projected to increase significantly from 24.2% in 2023 to 34.6% by 2026, indicating improved operational efficiency [4][5]. Market Position - Bilibili's market capitalization stands at $6.365 billion USD, with major shareholders including Chen Rui at 12% [3][4]. - The stock has a 52-week high of $18.19 and a low of $8.80, indicating volatility in its market performance [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 34, representing a potential upside of 65.8% from the current price of HKD 21.0 [1][2]. Core Insights - The company experienced a 4.7% year-on-year decline in core net profit for H1 2024, with total revenue reaching RMB 79.1 billion, an 8.4% increase compared to the previous year. The development business revenue was RMB 59.1 billion, up 8.3%, while recurring business revenue grew by 9.0% to RMB 20 billion, accounting for 25.3% of total revenue [1][2]. - The company’s sales performance showed resilience despite a 26.7% decline in sales revenue to RMB 124.7 billion, with a 69% equity ratio. The average selling price decreased by 1.4% to RMB 23,930 per square meter, but the company maintained a strong market position, ranking among the top four in the industry [1][2]. - The recurring business's profit contribution increased to 51.4%, becoming a significant growth driver for the company. The shopping center segment saw a 21.9% increase in retail sales, with a 30% rise in rental income [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - For H1 2024, the company reported a gross margin of 25.2%, down 1 percentage point year-on-year, primarily due to a 4.6 percentage point decline in the development business gross margin to 12.4%. The net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 25% to RMB 10.2 billion [1][2]. - The company’s financial structure remains robust, with a cash-to-short-term debt ratio of 1.54 and a total interest-bearing debt ratio of 38.9%. The average financing cost decreased by 32 basis points to 3.24%, positioning the company among the lowest in the industry [1][2]. - The company’s asset management scale increased by 5.1% to RMB 449.1 billion, supporting its value release and business transformation in the evolving industry landscape [1][2].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 55.6, indicating a potential upside of 53.9% from the current price of HKD 36.1 [2][3]. Core Insights - The company, Gushengtang, is a leading chain of traditional Chinese medicine clinics, focusing on traditional Chinese diagnosis, integrated Chinese-Western medicine treatment, and the sale of Chinese medicinal products. Since its establishment in Guangzhou in 2010, it has expanded to 74 clinics across 15 cities in China and Singapore by July 2024 [2][5]. - In the first half of 2024, the company reported a 38.4% year-on-year revenue growth to HKD 1.36 billion, with an adjusted profit increase of 45.3% to HKD 150 million, excluding share-based payment impacts [2][5]. - The traditional Chinese medicine industry is experiencing rapid growth, driven by an aging population, increased health awareness, and strong government support. The number of traditional Chinese medical institutions in China reached 92,531 in 2023, a 13.2% increase year-on-year [2][19][20]. - Gushengtang's unique business model focuses on brand building, attracting quality physicians, and effective supply chain management for Chinese medicinal materials, positioning it as a top brand in the industry [2][5]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Gushengtang is a leading provider of traditional Chinese medical health services, offering comprehensive solutions through both online and offline platforms. The company has established a network of 74 medical institutions across 19 cities and Singapore, with a focus on grassroots healthcare [5][13]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2024, Gushengtang's revenue grew by 38.4% to HKD 1.36 billion, with an adjusted profit increase of 45.3% to HKD 150 million. The gross margin improved to 29.4%, while the effective tax rate rose to 14.2% [2][4]. Industry Analysis - The traditional Chinese medicine sector is projected to reach a market size of HKD 240-320 billion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15%. The industry is characterized by a fragmented market with significant consolidation potential [19][28]. Business Model - Gushengtang's business model leverages a combination of online and offline services, focusing on attracting renowned physicians and managing a robust supply chain for medicinal materials. The company aims to enhance its service capabilities through digitalization and the OMO (Online-Merge-Offline) model [15][30]. Growth Strategy - The company plans to continue expanding its clinic network and enhancing its service offerings, with a focus on integrating online and offline healthcare services. Gushengtang has also established partnerships with various hospitals and medical universities to strengthen its resource base [33][30].

露露乐蒙（LULU.O） 更新报告 中国大陆地区保持强力增长，北美女装业务趋势疲软但公司在 持续改善 北美营收继续减速，国际市场表现强劲：第二季度营收同比增 长 7%至 24 亿美元。北美业务营收增长 1%，国际业务营收增长 29%，其中中国业务营收增长 37%。每股摊薄收益为 3.15 美元。 盈利能力持续增强：毛利率增加 80 个基点至 59.6%，主要因产 品成本降低驱动了产品利润率的提高，但固定成本被增加以及 不利的外汇因素有略微抵消。SG&A 减少 20 个基点至 36.8%，主 要受运营渠道成本的驱动。营业利润同比增长 13%至 5.4 亿美 元，营业利润率增加 110 个基点至 22.8%。 男装业务市场份额持续攀升：女装收入同比增长 6%，男装为 11%，配饰为 7%。女装小号尺码问题现已解决，但缺乏新款，因 此影响了转化率，尤其是在北美市场。管理层表示下半年会致 力于推出更多新款，2025 年春季的新款会比今年下半年更多。 2024 财年及第三季度指引：2024 财年销售额和利润率的预期再 次被下调，财年收入预期从原本的 107 至 108 亿美元之间调整至 103.75 至 104.75 ...

Investment Rating - Target price set at $146.10 with a Buy rating [2] - The target price implies a 52% upside from the current price of $96.11 [23] Core Views - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 have been revised downward to RMB 4,124 billion, RMB 5,210 billion, and RMB 6,344 billion, respectively, from previous estimates of RMB 4,582 billion, RMB 6,221 billion, and RMB 7,681 billion [2] - Operating profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to RMB 1,206 billion, RMB 1,508 billion, and RMB 1,863 billion, down from RMB 1,352 billion, RMB 1,856 billion, and RMB 2,334 billion [2] - The company is expected to focus on GMV growth, sacrificing short-term profits to build a long-term platform ecosystem [11] Financial Performance - Q2 2024 revenue reached RMB 970.60 billion, up 86% YoY, but missed market expectations [32] - Online marketing services revenue grew 29% YoY to RMB 491.16 billion, while transaction services revenue surged 234% YoY to RMB 479.44 billion, driven by Temu's growth [32] - Operating profit for Q2 2024 was RMB 325.65 billion, up 156% YoY, with an operating margin of 33.6% [32] - Non-GAAP operating margin reached a historical high of 36.0% in Q2 2024 [32] - Net profit for Q2 2024 was RMB 320.09 billion, up 144% YoY, with a net margin of 33.0% [32] Domestic Business Challenges - Domestic e-commerce market faces challenges due to rational consumption and intensified competition [11] - Online retail sales of physical goods grew 8.8% YoY in H1 2024, while per capita consumption expenditure declined by 3.3 percentage points to 5.0% in Q2 2024 [11] - The company plans to increase investments and is not considering stock buybacks or dividend plans in the near term [11] Overseas Business Progress - Temu's global sales approached $20 billion in H1 2024, with full-year GMV expected to reach $50 billion [21] - The overseas business is nearing breakeven, with losses narrowing sequentially [21] - Logistics and marketing costs dominate the overseas cost structure, but fulfillment costs are expected to decline as the semi-hosted business expands [21] - Growth in the US market will rely more on organic traffic, with advertising efforts focused on non-US markets [21] Valuation and Financial Metrics - The company's market capitalization stands at $133.5 billion, with a 52-week high/low of $164.69/$88.01 [23] - The EV/EBITDA ratio is 12.0, with an enterprise value of RMB 2,235.56 billion [16] - Non-GAAP gross margin is expected to remain stable at around 65.8%-67.1% from 2024 to 2026 [29] - Non-GAAP operating margin is projected to improve to 32.0% in 2024, up from 26.6% in 2023 [29] Key Financial Forecasts - Total revenue is expected to grow from RMB 412.43 billion in 2024 to RMB 634.35 billion in 2026 [12] - Operating profit is forecasted to increase from RMB 120.65 billion in 2024 to RMB 186.30 billion in 2026 [12] - EPS is projected to rise from RMB 87.1 in 2024 to RMB 134.3 in 2026 [2]

携程（TCOM.O） 更新报告 买入 2024 年 9 月 4 日 国内业务彰显韧性，出境及海外延续高增 24Q2 业 绩增 长 超预期 ： 24H1 集团实现收入 、经调整 净利润分别为 247.1/90.4 亿元人民币（下同），同比+20.7%/+64.4%，其中 24Q2 收入、 经调整净利润分别为 127.9/49.9 亿元，同比+13.5%/+45.2%。在当前国内 旅游行业或面临价格扰动的环境下，集团经营增长彰显韧性。 国内出行稳健，出境及海外延续高增：分业务看，集团于 24H1 住宿预订/交通 票务/旅游度假/商旅管理/其他业务收入分别为 96.3/98.7/19.1/11.4/21.5 亿 元，同比+24.0%/+10.0%/+72.2%/+11.2%/+34.5%，其中 24Q2 单季度收入分别 为 51.4/48.7/10.3/6.3/11.2 亿 元 ， 同 比 +19.9%/+1.2%/+42.0%/+8.4%/ +31.0%。分区域市场看，集团中文站点 24Q2 酒店预订共计同比约+20%。我们 预计，其中 1）国内游方面，集团期内受酒店价格波动的负面影响略好于行 业，且酒店及交通票 ...

协鑫科技（03800） 更新报告 颗粒硅成本及品质优势有望进一步体现 降价与减值导致业绩盈转亏：公司上半年收入同比减少 57.7%至 88.6 亿元人民币（下同），毛利为-5.5 亿，同比减少 106.3%，股东净 利润-14.8 亿元，同比减少 126.8%。业绩下滑主要因为期内硅料价格 同比大幅下降 68%以及存货减值 8.2 亿元的影响，其中 2Q 单季度亏损 约 15.1 亿元，低于我们先前预期。期末资产负债率 41.3%（扣除背书 及折现票据影响则为 37%），财务状态仍相对健康。 产品持续迭代优化：上半年公司颗粒硅销售 12.6 万吨，同比增加 25%，硅料收入 48.6 亿元，平均不含税均价 40.3 元每公斤。品质持续 提升，颗粒硅基本全面实现 5 元素总金属杂质含量低于 1ppbw 及小于 0.5ppbw 产品比例提升至 95%，已与市场 N 型致密复投料品质标准一 致，18 元素总金属杂质产品比例亦由 43%提升至 69.5%；浊度缺陷取得 实质优化，7 月 120NTU 和 100NTU 产品比例分别达到 99.9%及 90.4%， 整体断线率（32.2%）已接近同期棒状硅水平（31.4 ...