资料来源:公司资料,第一上海预测 资料来源:彭博 高途（GOTU.US） 更新报告 收入增长超预期，投入加大利润承压 FY24Q2 业绩概览：截止 24 年 6 月 30 日，公司 FY24Q2 同比+38.7% 至 10.09 亿人民币（下同），高于此前公司业绩指引（9.08-9.28 亿 元）。Non-GAAP 经营利润-4.53 亿元，去年同期为盈利 0.50 亿元； Non-GAAP 净 利 润 为 -4.18 亿 元 ， 去年同 期 -4.15 亿 元 。 截 至 FY2024Q2，公司在现金储备为 41 亿元，无有息负债。按可比口径现金 收款同比增长超过 87%，达 16.5 亿元。 K9 业务实现高增长，占比首次超 20%：分业务看，FY24Q1 公司 非学科培训及高中业务（K12 业务）占比总体超 75%，占据主要地位， 收入同比超过 55%，其中 K9 非学科辅导的收入和可比口径现金收款同 比增长均超 100%，来自新生的可比口径现金收款同比增长超过 200%， K9 业务收入占比首次超过 20%；成人及大学生业务收入占比少于 20%， 收入同比增长约为 10%。 FY24Q3 公司指引：F ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Shenhua (1088) with a target price of HKD 40.45, indicating a potential upside of 19% from the current price of HKD 34.10 [1]. Core Views - The integrated operational layout of the company smooths out cyclical fluctuations, showcasing its stability as a leading player in the industry [1]. - The company's performance in the first half of the year met expectations, with revenue of CNY 168.1 billion, a slight decrease of 0.8% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders reached CNY 32.8 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13.6% [1]. - The coal business demonstrated profitability stability under price pressure, with production reaching 163 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.6% [1]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for the first half of 2024 was CNY 168.1 billion, down 0.8% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 32.8 billion, up 13.6% year-on-year [1]. - The coal segment's tax-adjusted profit decreased by 17.2% due to rising labor costs, with unit production costs at CNY 172 per ton, an increase of 3.2% year-on-year [1]. - The company achieved a sales volume of 134.3 million tons in the coal business, a decrease of 2.3% year-on-year, while the average price for long-term contracts remained stable, with a 2% year-on-year decline [1]. Operational Insights - The company's power generation segment generated revenue of CNY 44.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.4%, although pre-tax profit decreased by 8.9% due to lower utilization hours and selling prices [1]. - The integrated coal and power operation model significantly alleviated profit pressure during coal price fluctuations, with expectations for stable profit levels in the long term [1]. - The company plans to release additional production capacity from new projects starting in 2028, contributing an estimated annual capacity of 30 million tons once fully operational [1]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates that the company's integrated operational model will continue to reflect strong profitability, with stable profit levels supported by long-term coal sales contracts and recovery in power generation [1]. - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 has been adjusted to CNY 60.9 billion, CNY 61.4 billion, and CNY 61.9 billion respectively [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for Zhaojin Mining (1818) with a target price of **HKD 17.39**, representing a **26.2% upside** from the current price [1][3] Core Views - Zhaojin Mining's performance has significantly improved, driven by **higher gold prices** and **increased production volume** [1] - The company's **overseas projects** are progressing steadily, with substantial potential for future production growth [1] - The **gold price** is expected to remain high, supported by **Fed rate cut expectations** and **central bank gold purchases**, providing a stable foundation for the company's performance [1] Financial Performance - In H1 2024, Zhaojin Mining achieved **RMB 4.627 billion** in revenue, a **34.24% YoY increase**, and **RMB 553 million** in net profit attributable to shareholders, a **118.62% YoY surge** [1] - The company's **gold production** reached **13.18 tons**, up **12% YoY**, with self-produced gold at **9 tons** (+6.9% YoY) and smelted gold at **4.18 tons** (+24.8% YoY) [1] - The **cost per gram of gold** decreased by **RMB 4.7**, leading to a **3.72 percentage point increase** in gross margin [1] Gold Price Trends - The **London gold spot price** reached **USD 2,322.7/oz** by the end of June 2024, up **over 13%** from the beginning of the year, breaking the **USD 2,300/oz** threshold [1] - The **Shanghai Gold Exchange Au9999 price** rose to **RMB 549.88/g**, a **14.4% increase** from the start of the year [1] Production Expansion - Zhaojin Mining completed the **full acquisition of Tietuo Mining**, which has a **gold resource reserve of over 40 tons** and is expected to produce **4-5 tons annually** [1] - The company acquired a **70% stake in Ruihai Mining**, which owns the **largest single gold mine in China** (Haijing Gold Mine) with a **total gold resource of 562.37 tons** and **mineable reserves of 212.21 tons** [1] - The **Haijing Gold Mine** is expected to reach **15 tons of annual production** by 2027 [1] Financial Forecasts - The report forecasts **net profit attributable to shareholders** of **RMB 1.25 billion** in 2024, **RMB 1.98 billion** in 2025, and **RMB 2.7 billion** in 2026 [1] - Revenue is projected to grow to **RMB 12.85 billion** in 2024, **RMB 15.85 billion** in 2025, and **RMB 19.41 billion** in 2026, with **YoY growth rates of 53%, 23%, and 23%**, respectively [2] - **EPS** is expected to increase to **RMB 0.37** in 2024, **RMB 0.58** in 2025, and **RMB 0.79** in 2026 [2] Valuation Metrics - The target price of **HKD 17.39** is based on a **30x PE multiple** for 2025 [1] - The current **PE ratio** is **33.8x** for 2024, **21.4x** for 2025, and **15.6x** for 2026 [2] Industry and Market Position - Zhaojin Mining operates in the **non-ferrous metals industry** and is positioned as a leading gold producer with significant **resource reserves** and **production capacity** [3] - The company's **major shareholders** include **Zhaojin Group (37.15%)** and **Zijin Mining (20%)** [3]

万国黄金集团 (3939，未评级）：引进战略投资者紫金矿业子公司加速业 务转型 引进战略投资者紫金矿业子公司 根据 2024 年 9 月 22 日公告，公司与认购方订立认购协议，认购方有条件同意 认购公司有条件配发及发行合共 165,600,000 股股份，认购价为每股认购股份 8.33 港元。认购方为紫金矿业的全资子公司金山（香港）国际矿业有限公司。 本次认购份额占目前已发行股份总数的 20%，占扩大后股份总数的 15.28%。根据 认购协议， 50%所得款项淨额将用作有关所罗门群岛金岭矿勘探及开发项目之拨 款，及剩余 50%所得款项淨额将用作公司一般营运资金。本次与紫金矿业的合作 不仅提供资金加快发展公司位于所罗门群岛的金岭项目，还有助于经验共享，并 为公司海外採矿技术及矿山营运方面提供支援。 陈晓霞 + 852-25321956 xx.chen@firstshanghai.com.hk 李羚玮 + 852-25321539 david.li@firstshanghai.com.hk 行业 有色金属 股价 9.70 港元 市值 80.32 亿港元 总股本 8.28 亿股 公司向黄金开采逐步转型，迈入业务发 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Resources Gas (1193) with a target price of HKD 32.60, representing a potential upside of 16% from the current price of HKD 28.15 [1]. Core Insights - The company has significantly improved its gross margin, leading to a substantial increase in interim dividends. The gross margin rose to HKD 0.54 per cubic meter, up from HKD 0.50 per cubic meter in the same period last year [1]. - For the first half of 2024, the company reported a year-on-year increase of 21.2% in core net profit attributable to shareholders, amounting to HKD 34.6 billion, despite a 2.5% decline when excluding one-time gains from the previous year [1]. - The total revenue for the first half of 2024 reached HKD 52.08 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.7% [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company achieved a total revenue of HKD 52.08 billion in the first half of 2024, with contributions from gas sales, connection fees, and comprehensive services [1]. - The overall gross margin improved to 18.6%, marking the first increase since 2020 [1]. - The natural gas sales volume reached 209 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 5.3% [1]. Business Segments - The comprehensive services segment saw a revenue increase of 20.0% to HKD 17.6 billion, with segment profit rising by 22.1% to HKD 7.6 billion [1]. - The comprehensive energy business generated revenue of HKD 8.3 billion, a year-on-year growth of 38.0% [1]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a stable capital expenditure, which will support ongoing shareholder returns. Revenue projections for 2024 to 2026 are estimated at HKD 105.9 billion, HKD 111.8 billion, and HKD 119.0 billion, respectively [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be approximately HKD 57 billion, HKD 62 billion, and HKD 71 billion for the years 2024 to 2026 [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 2.90, representing a potential upside of 24.5% from the current price of HKD 2.33 [2]. Core Insights - The second quarter performance of the company met expectations, with a slight quarter-on-quarter increase in gross gaming revenue of 0.1% to HKD 6.89 billion, recovering to 69.9% of the 2019 level [1]. - The market share of the company increased by 0.2 percentage points to 12.6% in the second quarter, with further improvement noted in July and August, reaching 13.5% [1]. - The performance of "The Venetian" and other self-operated venues showed mixed results, with "The Venetian" experiencing a 5.0% decline in gaming revenue, while other venues saw slight increases [1]. - "The Parisian" recorded a revenue of HKD 1.54 billion, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 9.3%, and its EBITDA increased by 17.2% to HKD 104 million [1]. - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery of Macau's gaming market, with long-term growth and competitive advantages anticipated from "The Parisian" [1]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2022, the company reported a net income of HKD 6,678.6 million, with a projected increase to HKD 27,911.4 million in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 29.1% [3]. - EBITDA is expected to rise from HKD 1,727.0 million in 2023 to HKD 3,721.2 million in 2024, indicating a growth rate of 115.5% [3]. - The net profit is projected to turn positive in 2024, reaching HKD 288.3 million, compared to a loss of HKD 2,009.8 million in 2023 [3]. - The company’s cash position is approximately HKD 34.3 billion, with net debt around HKD 235.3 billion [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for the company with a target price of **HKD 2.03**, representing a **34.6% upside** from the current price of HKD 1.51 [2][3] Core Views - The company's **fruit retail business is under pressure**, with a **11.1% YoY decline** in revenue and a **66.1% YoY drop** in net profit in 1H24 [2] - **Direct sales business continues to grow rapidly**, with domestic and overseas direct sales increasing by **30.2% and 29.4% YoY**, respectively, driven by expanded market coverage and partnerships [2] - The company's **store count remains stable** at 6,025 as of June 30, 2024, with a net increase of 67 stores YoY [2] - The company has implemented a **new strategy** focusing on becoming a **high-quality fruit expert and leader**, which has shown initial success with **42 proprietary fruit brands** and a **16% share** of total retail sales [2] - The report forecasts **net profits of RMB 1.9/2.8/3.6 billion** for 2024-2026, driven by strategic adjustments and growth in direct sales and overseas C-end business [2] Financial Performance - **Revenue** is expected to decline by **11.4% YoY** in 2024 to RMB 10,095.6 million, followed by a **4.4% increase** in 2025 and a **6.5% increase** in 2026 [1][6] - **Net profit attributable to shareholders** is projected to drop by **46.3% YoY** in 2024 to RMB 194.1 million, with a recovery of **43.2% YoY** in 2025 and **27.9% YoY** in 2026 [1][6] - **Basic EPS** is forecasted to decrease to **12.33 RMB cents** in 2024, recovering to **17.65 RMB cents** in 2025 and **22.58 RMB cents** in 2026 [1][6] - The **P/E ratio** is expected to rise to **12.2x** in 2024, then decline to **8.6x** in 2025 and **6.7x** in 2026 [1][6] Business Segments - **Fruit and other food sales** accounted for **RMB 5.44 billion** in 1H24, down **11.1% YoY**, while **other income** grew by **72.1% YoY** to RMB 50 million [2] - **Franchise fees and franchise income** declined by **31.8% YoY** to RMB 70 million, and **membership income** dropped by **19.9% YoY** to RMB 40 million [2] - **Online channel revenue** fell by **61.1% YoY** to RMB 60 million, reflecting challenges in the retail environment [2] Strategic Initiatives - The company has expanded its **supply chain efficiency** and **2B market share** through the acquisition of **Shenzhen Ban Guo**, targeting small and medium-sized fruit suppliers [2] - The **C-end overseas expansion** is expected to break the **store opening ceiling**, with the company announcing its official entry into overseas markets in September 2024 [2] - The company's **proprietary fruit brands** now account for **16% of total retail sales**, up **2 percentage points YoY**, with **5 new brands** launched in 1H24 [2] - **Gift sales** contributed **13.0%** of total sales in 1H24, up **2.4 percentage points** from 2023, driven by holiday promotions [2] Industry Comparison - The company's **P/E ratio** of **6.0x** for 2024 is lower than the **simple average of 30.3x** for the retail industry, indicating potential undervaluation [5] - The company's **CAGR for 2024-2026** is projected at **8.4%**, lower than the **23.1% average** for the retail industry but higher than some peers like **Tianhong Digital Commerce** (9.6%) [5] - The company's **PEG ratio** of **1.1x** for 2024 is in line with the industry average, suggesting balanced growth and valuation [5]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 57.3, indicating a potential upside of 31.65% from the current price of HKD 43.5 [1][3]. Core Insights - The company has shown significant improvement in profitability, with a revenue increase of 32.1% year-on-year to HKD 188.6 billion for the first half of 2024, and a net profit increase of 147.1% to HKD 10.8 billion [2][3]. - The mobile phone industry is experiencing a recovery in demand, and the company's product mix is continuously optimizing, leading to a forecasted increase in mobile lens shipments by 5-10% year-on-year [2][3]. - The automotive and AR/VR sectors are also expanding, with automotive revenue growing by 16.4% to HKD 28.8 billion and AR/VR revenue skyrocketing by 111.4% to HKD 9.9 billion [2][3]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are HKD 383.9 billion, HKD 437.8 billion, and HKD 478.8 billion respectively, with net profits expected to be HKD 22.7 billion, HKD 28.7 billion, and HKD 33.4 billion [3][5]. - The company maintains a gross margin of 17.2%, which is an increase of approximately 2.3 percentage points compared to the previous year, with operational expenses kept below 12% [2][5]. - The company has a market capitalization of HKD 476.24 billion and a share capital of 1.095 billion shares [4].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of 18.2 HKD, indicating a potential upside from the current price of 11.46 HKD [2][4]. Core Insights - The company achieved a contract sales amount of approximately 148.4 billion RMB in the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 17.6%, ranking first in equity sales [1]. - The company maintains a leading profit margin in the industry, with an overall gross margin of 22.1% and a core net profit of 10.64 billion RMB, despite a year-on-year decline of 23.0% [1]. - The company has a strong land reserve, with a total land bank of approximately 49.05 million square meters, ensuring future performance stability [1]. Summary by Sections Sales and Profitability - The company reported a contract sales area of approximately 5.44 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 32.3%, while the contract average price increased by 21.7% to 27,279 RMB per square meter [1]. - The overall market share increased by 0.49 percentage points to 3.15%, with a focus on mainstream cities and prime locations [1]. Financial Performance - The company declared an interim dividend of 0.30 HKD per share, with a payout ratio increasing by 4 percentage points to 28.3% [1]. - The asset-liability ratio stands at approximately 56.1%, with a net debt ratio of about 38.7% and an average financing cost of around 3.5% [1]. Commercial Operations - The commercial operations revenue grew by 20.0% year-on-year to 3.54 billion RMB, with first-tier cities contributing 42% of this revenue [1]. - The shopping center business showed significant growth, with a rental rate of 96.6% and a year-on-year revenue increase of 57.6% to 1.11 billion RMB [1]. Future Projections - The company is expected to achieve core net profits of 22.3 billion RMB, 22.9 billion RMB, and 23.6 billion RMB for the years 2024 to 2026, respectively [1].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 1.75, indicating a potential upside of 55% from the current price of HKD 1.12 [1][2]. Core Insights - The company experienced an 8.1% year-on-year decline in net profit for the first half of 2024, despite an 8.8% increase in revenue to HKD 314 million. The gross profit decreased by 1.6% to HKD 162 million, with a gross margin of 51.6%, down 5.5 percentage points due to a higher proportion of lower-margin rental projects [1][3]. - The company maintained a high dividend payout ratio of 50%, declaring an interim dividend of HKD 0.048 per share [1][2]. - The company has a strong cash position with cash on hand of HKD 1.466 billion, a 3.9% increase from the end of 2023, and generated cash income of HKD 17.55 million during the period [1][3]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2024, the company reported: - Revenue: HKD 314 million, up 8.8% year-on-year - Gross Profit: HKD 162 million, down 1.6% year-on-year - Net Profit: HKD 89 million, down 8.1% year-on-year - Gross Margin: 51.6%, down 5.5 percentage points [1][3]. - The company’s same-store sales increased by 8% and customer traffic rose by 16% during the same period, with an overall occupancy rate of 92.5% [1][3]. Project and Operational Insights - The company has opened two new rental projects in Guangzhou and Shanghai, bringing the total number of operational retail projects to 29, covering an area of 1.77 million square meters [1][3]. - The company has a project reserve of approximately 2.77 million square meters across 17 projects, with 44.2% of the area managed by third parties, indicating a solid growth trajectory [1][3]. Future Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of approximately HKD 157 million, HKD 198 million, and HKD 236 million for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [1][2].