Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook for Tencent Holdings, anticipating a revenue increase of 8.14% year-on-year for Q2 2024, with a target price of 372 HKD [5]. Core Views - Tencent is expected to report a revenue of 161.3 billion RMB for Q2 2024, with significant contributions from its value-added services and advertising segments [5]. - The gaming sector shows strong recovery potential, with new game launches expected to drive revenue growth in the coming quarters [5]. - The advertising business is projected to maintain high gross margins, supported by the growth of video accounts and operational optimizations [5]. - The cloud and financial services are focusing on high-quality growth while reducing costs, with an emphasis on the demand for cloud computing driven by large model market conditions [5]. Revenue Expectations - Anticipated revenue for value-added services in Q2 is 78.2 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 5.33% [5]. - Advertising revenue is expected to rise by 16.97% year-on-year to 29.2 billion RMB [5]. - Cloud and financial services are projected to generate 52.4 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.66% [5]. Profitability Forecast - Non-GAAP net profit for Q2 is expected to increase by 28.24% year-on-year, reaching approximately 48.1 billion RMB [5].

Investment Rating - Buy rating with a target price of HKD 29.00, representing a 57.8% upside potential from the current price [2][5] Core Views - The company's 24Q2 revenue reached USD 480 million, a 4% QoQ increase but a 24% YoY decline, with a gross margin of 10.5% [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was USD 6.67 million, down 92% YoY and 79% QoQ, with a capacity utilization rate of 98%, up 6 ppts QoQ [2] - The company expects 24Q3 revenue to grow 4-9% QoQ, with gross margin improving to 10-12% [2] - Recovery in the consumer electronics and AI sectors drove 24H1 revenue growth, while the power device market remains weak [2] - The company's 12-inch fab is expected to start mass production in 25Q1, with 40,000 wafers per month capacity by mid-2025 [2] - Wafer ASP is expected to gradually recover, with 2024-2026 ASPs projected at USD 422/522/566, and gross margins at 11.6%/21.1%/27.7% [2] Financial Performance Summary - 24Q2 eNVM revenue was USD 140 million, up 15% QoQ but down 34.2% YoY, driven by lower MCU ASPs and reduced demand for smart card chips [2] - Discrete device revenue was USD 150 million, up 6.3% QoQ but down 39.4% YoY, due to lower demand and ASPs for IGBT and super-junction products [2] - Logic and RF revenue was USD 60 million, up 11% YoY, benefiting from growth in CIS and logic product demand [2] - Analog and power management revenue was USD 100 million, down 0.4% QoQ but up 25.7% YoY, driven by increased demand for power-related products [2] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain high capacity utilization, with wafer ASPs gradually recovering, supported by strong demand for CIS, RF, and PMIC products [2] - The automotive and industrial markets remain uncertain, putting pressure on power device and MCU product prices [2] - The company's second 12-inch fab is expected to contribute to ASP improvements starting in 2025, with significant capacity expansion planned [2] Financial Projections - 2024-2026 revenue is projected at USD 1.97/2.94/3.45 billion, with net profits of USD -47/196/519 million [2][4] - 2024-2026 gross margins are forecasted at 11.6%/21.1%/27.7%, with EBITDA margins at 24.4%/42.2%/47.4% [4][6] - The company's P/B ratio for 2024 is estimated at 1x, supporting the target price of HKD 29.00 [2]

Meta Platforms（META） 更新报告 第一上海证券有限公司 www.mystockhk.com 季度业绩摘要及点评 经营利润同比+58% 资料来源：公司资料，第一上海整理 我们认为公司业绩的提升将持续：1）ARPU 持续增长，由于手机操作系统个人隐私 保护政策原因，广告预算向高 ROI 领域集中。同时公司的 Advantage+平台利用 AI 技术提升广告主 ROI。2）Reels 的货币化进展顺利，广告展示量大幅提升。3）公 司长期资本开支增长支持 GenAI 模型及应用建设，货币化潜力较高。 第一上海证券有限公司 2024 年 8 月 图表 2:Facebook ARPU（美元）与 DAP（十亿） 图表 3: 广告单价与曝光率趋势 广告量价齐升持续，Meta AI 初显雄心 Quest 3 销量超预期 AI 方面，本季度公司发布了由 4050 亿参数的 Llama 3.1 模型支持的 Meta AI 新版 本，其货币化尝试主要集中在短视频及广告内容的算法推荐；Meta AI 已在 20 个国 家使用并支持 8 种语言，北美地区正在拓展图像编辑等功能。本季度 Advantage+驱 动广告主 ...

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------|-----------------------------------|-------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------|-------------------|--------------------------------------| | | 季度业绩再超预期，分红规划 ...

宏观经济评论 第一上海研究部 research@firstshanghai.com.hk 2024 年 8 月 6 日 星期二 【宏观经济评论】 第一上海——美股宏观策略周报 李倩 +852-25321539 Chuck.li@firstshanghai.com.hk 政治事件 以色列和伊朗及其小弟们发生了一些冲突，伊朗发出了报复威胁，有很多人担心会 引发第三次世界大战。但我们认为伊朗很可能在夸大其词，毕竟它没有这样的实力， 对此不必太过担忧。 经济数据 7 月的制造业 PMI 指数为 46.8，远低于预期的 49，出现明显下降，就业和新订单 都走弱很多，市场也因此担心经济衰退。但仔细分析后发现，衰退的精确定义并不 容易达到，不能仅凭一两个数据就草率下结论，这很有可能只是经济放缓的征兆。 今年三季度 GDP 预期增速在 2%和 2.4%之间，四季度预计仍为正值。有经济衰退大 概率也是明年的事情。而且在美联储降息的预期下，明年上半年能否衰退仍是未知 数，现在定义还是为时过早。7 月的服务业服务业为 51.4，高于预期 51，高于前 值 48.8，也是不错，对所谓的衰退担忧是一个缓解。 7 月美国新增非农就业减少 ...

4 好未来（TAL） 更新报告 业绩维持高增长，加大投入或致利润短期承压。 业绩概览：公司 25 财年 1 季度（24 年 2 月-24 年 5 月）收入为 4.14 亿美元，同比增长 50.4%（美元计，下同），GAAP 归母净利润为 1140 万美元，去年同期为-4504 万美元；Non-GAAP 归母净利润 2961 万美 元，去年同期为-1952 万美元，同比扭亏。季度末公司现金+短期投资 为 33 亿美元，无银行负债。此外，公司递延收入为 6.4 亿，同比增 长 50%。 线下网点加速扩张，新业务高速增长：我们估算 25 财年 Q1 公司业务 结构:（1）教育培训业务占比约 75%，整体增长超 50%。其中素质教 育培训业务占比约 50%，同比增长约 80%，高中教培业务占比约 15%， 实现稳定增长。海外教培及其他业务总体占比较小。预估其线下教学 点增加超 400 间，对比 24 财年末 300-350 间，教学点扩张速度超预 期，为暑假旺季做储备。（2）内容解决方案占比约 25%，包含智能硬 件、实物出版、数字内容等，估算同比增长 50%+，主要受到学习机销 售收入驱动,预估学习机销售量达到 1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price adjusted to HKD 10.40, representing a potential upside of 35.1% from the current price of HKD 7.77 [2][4]. Core Insights - The company demonstrates strong profitability resilience despite a revenue decline, with a 6.4% year-on-year decrease in total revenue to HKD 11.81 billion in the first half of 2024, primarily due to falling float glass prices. However, the gross margin improved by 5.3 percentage points to 34.3%, benefiting from lower raw material and energy costs, as well as improved margins in the automotive glass segment. Net profit increased by 27.1% year-on-year to HKD 2.73 billion, driven by significantly reduced financial expenses and contributions from joint ventures [2]. - The company has effectively controlled costs and diversified its product offerings. Revenue from float glass, automotive glass, and construction glass was HKD 6.98 billion, HKD 3.26 billion, and HKD 1.56 billion respectively, with year-on-year changes of -12.9%, +8.9%, and -2.8%. The decline in float glass revenue is attributed to weak domestic real estate performance, with a nearly 22% year-on-year drop in completed area. Despite this, profitability remained stable due to lower prices of soda ash and natural gas, with gross margins rising to 28.4%, 49.6%, and 28.5% for float glass, automotive glass, and construction glass respectively [2]. - The float glass price is nearing its low point from the first half of 2020, with current industry production capacity close to 170,000 tons per day and inventory levels at historical highs. The oversupply situation has led to a continued decline in prices, now around HKD 1,400 per ton, putting pressure on the profitability of secondary enterprises. An acceleration in industry maintenance and potential capacity reductions are anticipated [2]. - The report projects revenue for 2024-2026 at HKD 24.0 billion, HKD 24.1 billion, and HKD 25.8 billion, with net profit estimates of HKD 5.4 billion, HKD 5.5 billion, and HKD 6.5 billion respectively. The target price corresponds to forecasted P/E ratios of 8.0, 7.8, and 6.8 for 2024-2026 [2]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the company is expected to generate revenue of HKD 23.95 billion, a decrease of 10.6% from 2023, with net profit projected at HKD 5.38 billion, reflecting a slight increase from the previous year. The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to remain stable at HKD 1.29 [5][6]. - The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 33.3% for 2024, with an EBITDA margin of 29.2% and a net margin of 22.5% [6]. - The company’s total assets are projected to grow from HKD 50.81 billion in 2023 to HKD 52.97 billion in 2024, while total liabilities are expected to decrease from HKD 14.95 billion to HKD 14.36 billion over the same period [6].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the company [3]. Core Insights - WeChat Pay MY will stop new user registrations from August 1, 2024, and cease payment services by September 1, 2024, due to local business strategy adjustments in Malaysia. Existing users can still withdraw funds, and the service for Chinese tourists remains unaffected [3]. - WeChat Pay's international business is expanding, covering 74 countries and regions, supporting 31 currencies, with over 1,000 overseas partners and more than 6 million merchants. Monthly transaction volume and number of transactions have seen significant growth, with over 6 times and 4 times year-on-year increases, respectively, as of June 2024 [3]. - Tencent's new tactical shooting game "Delta Operation" is set to launch in September, promising an innovative gaming experience while retaining classic elements. The game has generated significant interest at events like ChinaJoy [3][27]. Summary by Sections WeChat Pay Developments - WeChat Pay MY will halt new registrations and payment services in Malaysia, but existing users can still access their funds. The service for Chinese tourists in Malaysia remains intact [3][28]. - WeChat Pay's international operations are thriving, with substantial growth in transaction numbers and amounts, indicating a robust expansion strategy [3]. Gaming Sector Updates - The National Press and Publication Administration approved 15 new games, including Tencent's "Rainbow Six" and "Final Fantasy XIV," which are expected to perform well in the market [26]. - Tencent's "Delta Operation" is anticipated to provide a unique gaming experience, leveraging advanced technology and gameplay mechanics, and is expected to attract a large player base upon release [27].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for Tesla (TSLA) [1]. Core Insights - Tesla has begun a wide release of FSD Supervised v12.5.1.1 for HW 4.0 Model Y owners, with plans to extend it to HW 3.0 owners within 10 days [1]. - Tesla achieved a milestone by producing its 10 millionth motor, primarily for Model 3 and Model Y, indicating strong production capabilities [1]. - Tesla has registered an insurance brokerage in Beijing, China, with a capital of 50 million RMB (approximately 6.9 million USD), potentially expanding its insurance business internationally [1][2]. - Tesla updated its Dojo investment plan in New York, committing to a 500 million USD investment and extending its operational commitment until 2034 [3]. - In the week of July 22 to July 28, 2024, Tesla's domestic insurance volume was approximately 13,500 vehicles, showing a quarter-over-quarter decline of about 9% but a year-over-year increase of 27% [4]. Summary by Sections Company Developments - Tesla's FSD v12.5.1.1 is being rolled out to HW 4.0 Model Y owners, with future plans for HW 3.0 [1]. - The production of the 10 millionth motor highlights Tesla's manufacturing strength, with most motors used in Model 3 and Model Y [1]. - The establishment of an insurance brokerage in China indicates Tesla's strategy to reduce insurance costs and expand its services [1][2]. Financial Commitments - Tesla's commitment to invest 500 million USD in the Dojo supercomputer project in New York, with a significant portion to be invested by the end of next year [3]. Market Performance - The domestic insurance volume for Tesla in China shows a decline from the previous quarter but an increase compared to the same period last year, indicating fluctuating market dynamics [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for New Oriental with a target price of $90.0, representing a potential upside of 50.4% from the current price of $59.9 [1]. Core Insights - The education business continues to grow despite short-term profit margin fluctuations, with a significant increase in the number of schools and learning centers, reaching 1,025, up by 114 from the previous quarter [1]. - The company expects net revenue for FY25Q1 to be between $1.25 billion and $1.28 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 31% to 34% [1]. - The deferred revenue balance stands at $1.78 billion, up 33.1% quarter-over-quarter, aligning with revenue growth expectations [1]. Financial Overview - For FY24Q4, total revenue was $113.7 million, a year-over-year increase of 32.1%, slightly above the company's guidance [1]. - Non-GAAP operating profit for FY24Q4 was $36.32 million, a year-over-year increase of 53.8% [1]. - The company reported a gross margin of 52.3%, down 2.2 percentage points year-over-year, primarily due to increased investments in expansion and employee compensation [1][2]. Business Expansion - The overseas exam preparation and study abroad consulting businesses grew by 17.7% and 17.3% year-over-year, respectively [1]. - Non-academic tutoring business registrations increased by 39.1% year-over-year, contributing to an overall revenue growth of 50.3% in new business segments for Q4 [1]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for the next fiscal years indicate continued growth, with expected revenues of $5.02 billion in 2025 and $5.84 billion in 2026, reflecting year-over-year growth rates of 16.3% and 16.5%, respectively [2][3]. - The company anticipates maintaining a strong cash position with total cash, short-term investments, and deposits amounting to $4.94 billion [1].