总 量 研 究 宏 观 周 报 [专项债优化稳投资，关注降准可能性 Table_NewTitle] ——宏观双周报（20241216-20241227） ➢ 核心观点：国内专项债新规发布，预计扩容以及提效的效果将较为明显，作用将有所增 强，起到稳投资的作用。12月MLF缩量续作，但全口径中长期流动性可能仍将保持净投 放，支持性货币政策有望延续，短期关注降准可能性。11月整体经济数据反映内需仍有 待进一步呵护，高频数据上显示地产销售仍在恢复中。美联储鹰派加息，市场预期明年 降息步伐明显放缓，但若降赤字控通胀能获得成功，宽松逻辑可能会回归。A股延续分化 走势，期待基本面验证或增量政策落地间任一变量得到确认。 ➢ 支持性货币政策有望延续。央行缩量续作MLF，但影响淡化。12月25日，央行开展3000 亿元MLF操作，当月到期量1.45万亿元，从资金面上来看，12月下旬以来，DR007中枢 下移，流动性相对充裕。全口径中长期流动性或仍将维持净投放。10月央行买入国债 2000亿元，进行买断式逆回购操作5000亿元，MLF口径当月净回笼890亿元；11月央行 买入国债2000亿元，进行买断式逆回购操作8000亿元，ML ...

Profit Trends - Profit growth has improved for two consecutive months, with the year-on-year decline narrowing to -4.7% in November from -4.3% previously[3] - Revenue growth turned positive at 0.5% in November, marking an improvement from negative growth[4] - The profit margin for November rose to 6.4%, although still below last year's level, indicating a seasonal recovery[4] Sector Performance - The upstream profit share from raw material extraction decreased slightly to 16.3%, while the midstream manufacturing profit share increased by 0.9 percentage points to 18.8%[2] - Midstream equipment manufacturing profit share remained stable at 28.0%, reflecting the effectiveness of equipment renewal policies[2] - Downstream profit share fell marginally to 25.7%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[2] Inventory and Demand - Nominal inventory growth declined to 3.3% year-on-year, down from 3.9%, indicating a potential shift to passive destocking[5] - Actual inventory growth also decreased to 5.8% from 6.8%, suggesting a recovery in demand since the introduction of growth stabilization policies[5] Economic Indicators - The industrial added value for large-scale enterprises grew by 5.4% year-on-year in November, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points[4] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a year-on-year decline of 2.5%, but the reduction in price drop contributed significantly to revenue growth improvement[4] Risks - Potential risks include policy implementation falling short of expectations, demand recovery not meeting forecasts, and data measurement discrepancies[21]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the stock over the next six months [20][129]. Core Insights - The company is positioned to benefit from the rapid growth of offshore wind power, with significant market opportunities both domestically and internationally. The report highlights the company's strong order backlog and technological advantages in deep-sea and floating wind projects [20][35][106]. - The offshore wind market is expected to see accelerated growth, particularly in Europe and China, with the company already making inroads into these markets [21][75][91]. Summary by Sections Company Performance - The company reported steady growth in revenue and net profit, with a cumulative revenue of approximately 6.689 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 25.18% [31][24]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was approximately 932 million yuan, up 13.41% year-on-year [31][24]. Market Position - The company holds a leading position in the domestic offshore cable market, with a significant share in projects across Zhejiang and Guangdong provinces. It has also successfully expanded into European markets, securing contracts worth nearly 3 billion yuan since December 2020 [25][80]. - As of October 18, 2024, the company has an order backlog of approximately 9.236 billion yuan, with substantial contributions from both the submarine cable and land cable systems [80][25]. Industry Outlook - The global offshore wind market is projected to grow significantly, with an expected compound annual growth rate of 28% over the next five years. China and Europe are anticipated to be the primary contributors to this growth [75][91]. - The report emphasizes the importance of government policies and investments in driving the offshore wind sector, particularly in the UK, which is leading the European market [77][94]. Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 8.858 billion yuan, 11.839 billion yuan, and 13.649 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively. Net profits are projected to be 1.269 billion yuan, 1.922 billion yuan, and 2.376 billion yuan for the same years [26][129]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 1.85 yuan, 2.79 yuan, and 3.45 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 28.64, 18.91, and 15.30 [26][129].

[Table_Reportdate] 2024年12月27日 博迈科 沪深300 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 张季恺 S0630521110001 zjk@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 谢建斌 S0630522020001 xjb@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 吴骏燕 S0630517120001 wjyan@longone.com.cn 联系人 花雨欣 hyx@longone.com.cn [Table_QuotePic] -33% -22% -12% -1% 10% 21% 32% 43% 23-12 24-03 24-06 24-09 ——公司深度报告 ➢ FPSO引领海工市场，博迈科持续发力走向高端：近年来全球海洋油气勘探开发投资大幅 增加。FPSO作为海上浮式生产储卸油装置，当前订单数量已逐渐恢复，租赁模式和标准 化装置的应用一定程度减弱短期油价变动对于FPSO投资积极性的影响，FPSO未来投资 将更趋于稳定性和长期性，SinorigOffshore预计2024年-2028年全球将新增48艘FPSO订 单，市场呈现高景气。博迈科作为全球FPSO上部模块重要建造 ...

证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 | --- | --- | |-------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | | | | | 正文目录 | | | | | | 1. 重点推荐 | | | 1.1. 央企市值管理强化，偿二代二期延长一年过渡期――非银金融行业周报 | | | ( 20241216-20241222 ) . | | | 1.2. 年末乘用车市场维持高景气，蔚来发布全新品牌 firefly 萤火虫――汽车行业 | | | 周报（2024/12/16-2024/12/22 ） | | | 1.3. 装备制造业有效拉动工业生产，铁路固定资产投资同比增长 -- 机械设备行 | | | 业周报（ 20241216-20241222 ） . | 2. 财经新闻 3. A 股市场评述 晨 会 纪 要 [Table_Report] [Table_Reportdate] 2024年12月25日 [晨会纪要 Ta ...

晨 会 纪 要 [table_main] 重点推荐 ➢ 1.央行平价缩量续作MLF。 | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------| | | | | | | | | | | 正文目录 | | | 1. 重点推荐 | | | 1.1. 安徽合力( 600761 ): 全产业链国产叉车龙头进军全球市场――公司深度报告 …… | | | 1.2. 五粮液经销商大会定调积极，微信小店增加新场景――食品饮料行业周报 | | | ( 2024/12/16-2024/12/22 ) | | 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 1.重点推荐 叉车全球市场广阔，海外巨头份额较大。叉车全球销量保持稳定增长态势，2013-2023 年叉车的销售量从 98.88 万台上升至 210.15 万台，年复合增长率达 7.83%。2023 年丰田、 凯傲、永恒力占据行业前三，共占主要市场份额达 50%以上。国外龙头起步较早，市场占有 率较高。全球成规模公司收入 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for Anhui Heli (600761) as it is considered a leading domestic forklift manufacturer with a comprehensive industry chain [4][17]. Core Viewpoints - Anhui Heli is a state-owned enterprise and a leader in the forklift industry, actively promoting globalization. The company has a strong presence in the global market with over 300 overseas agents covering more than 150 countries [16][28]. - The global forklift market is expanding, with significant shares held by overseas giants. The report highlights the increasing competitiveness of domestic manufacturers like Anhui Heli, which is narrowing the gap with international leaders [9][126]. - The company is expected to benefit from trends in electrification and automation, with a focus on lithium battery technology and intelligent logistics solutions [93][143]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Anhui Heli has been a key player in the forklift industry since its establishment in 1958, with a comprehensive product range covering various tonnage levels and types [28][29]. - The company has optimized its supply chain and production capabilities, establishing multiple manufacturing bases across China [29]. Market Analysis - The global forklift market has shown stable growth, with sales increasing from 988,800 units in 2013 to 2,101,500 units in 2023, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 7.83% [33][110]. - The domestic forklift market is also growing, with sales rising from 138,900 units in 2009 to 1,173,800 units in 2023, achieving a compound annual growth rate of 16.47% [76][87]. Financial Performance - In 2023, Anhui Heli achieved a revenue of 17.471 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.47%, with a net profit of 1.278 billion yuan, up 41.36% [48][67]. - The company forecasts net profits of 1.415 billion yuan, 1.587 billion yuan, and 1.866 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 11.53, 10.28, and 8.74 [17][165]. Strategic Initiatives - Anhui Heli is focusing on expanding its global footprint and enhancing its product offerings through technological innovation, particularly in electric and intelligent forklifts [93][148]. - The company is also investing in key projects to bolster its competitive edge, including the construction of new manufacturing facilities and the development of high-end components [69][70]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates continued growth in Anhui Heli's sales and profitability, driven by the global demand for forklifts and the company's strategic initiatives in electrification and automation [17][165]. - The company is well-positioned to capture a larger share of the global market as it enhances its brand recognition and operational efficiency [9][126].

[晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20241224 ➢ 1.字节豆包视觉理解模型发布，美光科技数据中心业务增长强劲——电子行业周报 （2024/12/16-2024/12/22） ➢ 4.以旧换新推进顺利，储能低价行持延续——电池及储能行业周报（2024/12/16- 2024/12/22） 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 4. 市场数据 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 电子板块观点：字节跳动豆包大模型全面升级，并发布豆包视觉理解模型，千 tokens 输入价格仅为 3 厘，为行业价格的 15%；美光科技 2025 财年第一财季营收同比增长 84.1%， 数据中心收入同比增长超过 400%，环比增幅达 40%以上，其中 HBM 收入实现连续两个季 度环比翻倍增长，但下季展望低于市场预期；当前电子行业需求处于温和复苏阶段，建议关 注 AIOT、AI 驱动、设备材料、消费电子周期筑底板块四大投资主线。 [Table_Report] [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 方霁 S0630523060001 fangji@ ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the food and beverage industry as "Overweight" [1] Core Views - The report emphasizes that the liquor industry, particularly Wuliangye, is focusing on enhancing marketing execution and strengthening dealer profitability to boost brand value and market share [1][2] - The report highlights the positive outlook for the liquor sector, with expectations for demand recovery driven by supportive policies and a strong performance during the upcoming holiday season [1][2] - The report suggests focusing on high-end liquor and regional leaders, recommending stocks such as Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao [2] Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The food and beverage sector experienced a decline of 2.27% last week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.13 percentage points, ranking 16th among 31 sectors [6][15] - Sub-sectors all saw declines, with dairy products performing relatively better, down 1.55% [15] 2. Liquor Pricing - As of December 22, 2024, the price for Moutai's original box is 2335 yuan, showing a monthly increase of 80 yuan, while the price for Wuliangye remains stable at 950 yuan [48] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-end liquor and regional leaders, with specific stock picks including Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Qingdao Beer in the beer sector [2][34] - In the snack sector, it suggests looking at companies with strong product growth logic such as Yanjin Cuisine and Gan Yuan Food [2] 4. Industry Dynamics - The report notes that the liquor industry is expected to see a recovery in demand, supported by favorable policies and a strong performance during the holiday season [1][2] - It also mentions that the beer sector is experiencing cost improvements and significant inventory reduction, with a positive outlook for demand recovery [35]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Neutral" indicating that the industry index is expected to fluctuate within -10% to 10% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [97]. Core Insights - NIO has officially launched the ET9, a smart electric flagship model priced at 788,000 yuan, featuring advanced perception hardware and a fully controlled intelligent chassis. Additionally, NIO introduced a new brand, Firefly, targeting the high-end small car market with a pre-sale price of 148,800 yuan for its first model [4][86]. - Geely's new model, Galaxy Starship 7 EM-i, has achieved over 10,000 deliveries within 13 days of its launch, with a significant monthly sales increase of 121% in November [11][62]. - The retail sales of passenger cars in December are expected to grow by 15% year-on-year, supported by the continuation of trade-in policies and increased local subsidies [49][55]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Highlights - NIO's new brand Firefly aims to expand into the high-end small car market, with a product matrix targeting various price segments [4][86]. - Geely's Galaxy Starship 7 EM-i has shown strong market performance, indicating a shift towards electric vehicles [11][62]. 2. Industry Data Tracking - According to the China Passenger Car Association, retail sales of passenger cars reached 1.083 million units in the first half of December, a year-on-year increase of 34% [14][55]. - The retail sales of new energy vehicles during the same period reached 536,000 units, reflecting a 71% year-on-year growth [14][55]. 3. Market Performance - The automotive sector overall saw a decline of 1.05% this week, with specific segments such as passenger vehicles and commercial vehicles experiencing varied performance [87]. - The automotive parts sector showed mixed results, with some sub-segments like body accessories and chassis systems facing declines [87]. 4. New Model Tracking - New models launched include Chery's iCAR V23 and other vehicles, indicating ongoing innovation in the market [92]. - The introduction of new models is expected to drive sales growth, particularly in the electric vehicle segment [50][62]. 5. Industry Dynamics - The competitive landscape in the automotive industry is intensifying, with companies focusing on innovation and market expansion [20][78]. - The establishment of new manufacturing facilities, such as Yutong's electric commercial vehicle factory in Qatar, highlights the industry's growth and international expansion efforts [95].