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航空:客运量增长、票价修复,看好板块中长期景气提升
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-10-16 07:41
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the transportation industry [4] Core Viewpoints - The transportation sector is expected to see a long-term improvement in demand, driven by strong travel intentions during holidays and a significant increase in passenger flow [1][2] - The recovery in air travel demand is evident, with domestic passenger volume showing resilience and international flight numbers increasing significantly [2][3] - The supply of aircraft is expected to grow at a low rate due to manufacturing constraints, which will limit capacity expansion in the aviation sector [2] - The decline in oil prices is beneficial for airline profitability, and ongoing regulatory measures against excessive competition are anticipated to support ticket price recovery [3] Summary by Sections Passenger Flow and Travel Intentions - The National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday period is projected to see a record 2.432 billion people traveling, with a daily average increase of 6.2% year-on-year [1] - Civil aviation passenger volume reached 19.138 million during this period, with daily averages showing a year-on-year increase of 4.1% compared to 2024 and 26.9% compared to 2019 [1] Flight Operations and Capacity - As of October 14, 2025, the daily average of civil aviation flights is 15,539, a 3.73% increase from the same period in 2024 [2] - The average seat occupancy rates for major airlines have improved, with September 2025 showing an average of 85.7%, up 5 percentage points from 2019 [1][3] Pricing Trends - The average ticket price for domestic economy class in September 2025 was 697 RMB, a 0.6% increase year-on-year, indicating a recovery from previous declines [1] - During the holiday period, the average ticket price was 849 RMB, reflecting a slight increase compared to 2019 [1] Supply Constraints - Global aircraft deliveries are expected to remain constrained, with Boeing and Airbus projected to deliver 348 and 766 aircraft respectively in 2024, representing a year-on-year decline of 34.1% and an increase of 4.2% [2] - The introduction of the C919 domestic aircraft and the aging fleet will further limit capacity expansion in the aviation sector [2] Profitability and Policy Impact - The reduction in jet fuel costs due to falling oil prices is expected to enhance airline profitability [3] - The "anti-involution" policy in the civil aviation sector aims to stabilize ticket prices and improve overall market conditions [3]
小商品城(600415):3Q25净利同增101%,六区招商收入确认、新业务高增
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-10-16 03:03
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for Q3 2025, with revenue reaching 5.348 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 39.02%, and net profit of 1.766 billion yuan, up 100.52% year-on-year [1][2]. - The strong performance is attributed to the completion of market recruitment in the six zones and the high growth of new business segments, indicating resilience in market operations and potential for future growth in trade services and import businesses [2][5]. - The company is expected to continue benefiting from a combination of volume and price increases in market operations, alongside the growth potential in trade services and imports, positioning it as a core asset in the consumer sector [5]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 13.061 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 23.07% [2]. - The gross profit margin for Q3 2025 increased by 15.31 percentage points to 45.41%, while the overall gross profit margin for the first three quarters rose by 5.23 percentage points to 37.23% [2]. - Operating profit for Q3 2025 was 2.195 billion yuan, a 106.35% increase year-on-year, contributing to a total operating profit of 4.338 billion yuan for the first three quarters, up 46.61% [4]. - The company’s effective tax rate increased by 3.93 percentage points to 21.26% [4]. Future Projections - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025 to 2027 are 4.240 billion yuan, 5.761 billion yuan, and 6.914 billion yuan, respectively, with expected growth rates of 37.9%, 35.9%, and 20.0% [5][6]. - The report anticipates continued high growth in the Yiwu Pay cross-border payment business, with transaction volumes exceeding 27 billion yuan in the first nine months of 2025, marking a growth of over 35% [4].
固定收益点评:四季度银行抛券压力有多大?
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-10-15 09:21
Core Insights - The report indicates that banks are facing increasing pressure on profitability, with net interest income showing negative growth. In H1 2025, listed banks' net profit growth slightly increased to 3.67% from 2.29% in Q1 2025, but remains at a low level, particularly for state-owned banks which reported growth rates of only 0.29% and -0.68% respectively [1][12][18] - Investment income is becoming a more significant contributor to bank profitability, with net investment income for listed banks growing by 24% year-on-year in H1 2025. State-owned banks saw a 46% increase, while joint-stock banks only achieved a 5% increase, likely due to base effects [2][21] - The report highlights a shift in banks' asset allocation, with a continuous increase in the proportion of OCI (Other Comprehensive Income) assets and a decrease in AC (Amortized Cost) assets. This strategy allows banks to manage profits more flexibly [3][11] Group 1: Profitability and Income Sources - The net interest margin (NIM) decline has slowed, with a decrease of only 1 basis point from Q1 to H1 2025. This indicates that banks are increasingly relying on non-interest income sources to support profitability [1][13] - The report estimates that banks will face some pressure to sell bonds in Q4 2025 to realize floating profits, although the scale is expected to be lower than in H1 2025 but higher than the same period last year [4][5] - The average cost of interest-bearing liabilities for banks has decreased significantly, which may allow for lower revenue targets to maintain profit levels [5][12] Group 2: Investment Strategies and Market Conditions - The report notes that banks have significantly reduced their holdings in bond funds in H1 2025, and the impact of subsequent public fund fee rate reforms remains to be seen. However, the pressure to redeem bond funds is expected to ease [6][11] - The investment income structure shows that the proportion of income from disposing of AC financial investments has increased to 24%, while TPL (Trading Portfolio) income has decreased to 59% [2][21] - The report emphasizes that the bond market's performance and interest rate fluctuations will critically influence banks' strategies for realizing profits from bond sales in the upcoming quarters [4][11]
东田微(301183):光器件“新军”的AI征程
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-10-15 07:17
Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its future performance [3]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading domestic optical device manufacturer, focusing on precision optical components for imaging and communication applications. The rapid development of AI and the growing demand for data centers have made the communication optical device business a new growth engine for the company [1][2]. - The imaging optical components segment is expected to see significant performance growth due to the acceleration of AI technology in consumer electronics, particularly in smartphones. The company is poised to capture market opportunities as smartphone shipments recover [1][2]. - The communication optical components segment is benefiting from the high demand for optical modules driven by AI advancements. The company has established a comprehensive product matrix covering various optical components, which positions it well to meet diverse market needs [2][14]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company specializes in the development, production, and sales of optical components, including infrared cutoff filters and prisms for imaging applications, and various filters and components for communication applications [1][19]. - The company has a strong focus on R&D, with a significant increase in R&D investment in 2025, which is expected to enhance its competitive position in the industry [2][16]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 597 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 69.2%, and a net profit of 56 million yuan, up 271% from the previous year. The growth is driven by both imaging and communication optical businesses [5][26]. - Projections for net profit are 130 million yuan in 2025, 247 million yuan in 2026, and 378 million yuan in 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 54, 28, and 19 [3][5]. Market Dynamics - The optical device market is expected to maintain high growth due to the increasing demand for AI infrastructure and the rapid evolution of optical communication technologies. The market for passive optical components is projected to grow at a CAGR of 12.1% from 2025 to 2031 [36][41]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing upgrades in optical modules, particularly in the context of high-speed communication and AI applications [14][41]. Competitive Advantages - The company has established a comprehensive product matrix that covers a wide range of optical components, allowing it to meet various market demands effectively. Its early investments in technology and production capacity provide a competitive edge in the optical device market [15][16]. - The company has a concentrated shareholding structure, which contributes to stable management and strategic continuity [22]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue benefiting from the growth in AI and communication sectors, with significant opportunities in both imaging and communication optical components. The anticipated increase in demand for high-speed optical modules will further enhance its market position [36][41].
行业轮动模型由高切低,增配顺周期板块
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-10-15 05:17
Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Industry Relative Strength (RSI) Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model identifies leading industries by calculating their relative strength (RS) based on historical price performance over different time windows [10] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Use 29 first-level industry indices as the configuration targets [10] 2. Calculate the price change rates for the past 20, 40, and 60 trading days for each industry index [10] 3. Rank the industries based on their price change rates for each time window and normalize the rankings to obtain RS_20, RS_40, and RS_60 [10] 4. Calculate the average of the three rankings to derive the final RS value: $ RS = \frac{RS_{20} + RS_{40} + RS_{60}}{3} $ [10] 5. Industries with RS > 90% by the end of April are identified as potential leading industries for the year [10] - **Model Evaluation**: The model successfully identified key annual industry trends, such as high dividend, resource products, exports, and AI, which were validated by market performance throughout the year [10][12] 2. Model Name: Industry Sentiment-Trend-Crowding Framework - **Model Construction Idea**: This framework provides two industry rotation strategies based on market conditions: 1. High sentiment + strong trend, avoiding high crowding (aggressive strategy) 2. Strong trend + low crowding, avoiding low sentiment (conservative strategy) [6][14] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Evaluate industries based on three dimensions: sentiment, trend, and crowding [6][14] 2. Use sentiment as the core metric for the aggressive strategy, with crowding as a risk control factor [14] 3. Use trend as the core metric for the conservative strategy, avoiding low-sentiment industries [14] 4. Allocate weights to industries based on their scores in the three dimensions [6][14] - **Model Evaluation**: The framework is effective in adapting to different market conditions and has shown strong performance in historical backtests [6][14] 3. Model Name: Left-Side Inventory Reversal Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model identifies industries with potential for recovery by analyzing sectors in distress or those with low inventory pressure and high analyst optimism [24] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Identify industries currently in distress or recovering from past distress [24] 2. Focus on sectors with low inventory pressure and potential for restocking [24] 3. Incorporate analyst long-term positive outlooks for these industries [24] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively captures recovery opportunities in industries undergoing inventory restocking cycles, providing significant absolute and relative returns [24] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Industry Relative Strength (RSI) Model - **Annualized Return**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Excess Return**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Information Ratio (IR)**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Maximum Drawdown**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Monthly Win Rate**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Performance Highlights**: - Industries with RS > 90% by April 2024 included coal, utilities, home appliances, banking, petrochemicals, communication, non-ferrous metals, agriculture, and automotive [10] - These industries showed strong performance, with key themes being high dividends, resource products, exports, and AI [10][12] 2. Industry Sentiment-Trend-Crowding Framework - **Annualized Return**: 22.1% (long-only portfolio) [14] - **Excess Return**: 13.8% (annualized) [14] - **Information Ratio (IR)**: 1.51 [14] - **Maximum Drawdown**: -8.0% [14] - **Monthly Win Rate**: 68% [14] - **Performance Highlights**: - 2023 excess return: 7.3% [14] - 2024 excess return: 5.7% [14] - 2025 YTD excess return: 2.8% [14] 3. Left-Side Inventory Reversal Model - **Annualized Return**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Excess Return**: - 2023: 17.0% (relative to equal-weighted industry benchmark) [24] - 2024: 15.4% (relative to equal-weighted industry benchmark) [24] - 2025 YTD: 7.8% (relative to equal-weighted industry benchmark) [24] - **Information Ratio (IR)**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Maximum Drawdown**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Monthly Win Rate**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Performance Highlights**: - Absolute return: - 2023: 13.4% [24] - 2024: 26.5% [24] - 2025 YTD: 26.4% [24] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Sentiment Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the overall sentiment of an industry to identify high-growth opportunities [14] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Evaluate the sentiment of each industry based on relevant metrics (not explicitly detailed in the report) [14] 2. Rank industries by sentiment scores [14] - **Factor Evaluation**: Sentiment is a core metric in the aggressive strategy of the Industry Sentiment-Trend-Crowding Framework, providing strong signals for high-growth opportunities [14] 2. Factor Name: Trend Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the strength of market trends to identify industries with strong momentum [14] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Evaluate the trend of each industry based on relevant metrics (not explicitly detailed in the report) [14] 2. Rank industries by trend scores [14] - **Factor Evaluation**: Trend is a core metric in the conservative strategy of the Industry Sentiment-Trend-Crowding Framework, offering a simple and replicable approach to industry allocation [14] 3. Factor Name: Crowding Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the level of crowding in an industry to identify overbought or underbought sectors [14] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Evaluate the crowding level of each industry based on relevant metrics (not explicitly detailed in the report) [14] 2. Rank industries by crowding scores [14] - **Factor Evaluation**: Crowding is used as a risk control factor in both aggressive and conservative strategies of the Industry Sentiment-Trend-Crowding Framework [14] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Sentiment Factor - **Annualized Return**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Excess Return**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Information Ratio (IR)**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Maximum Drawdown**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Monthly Win Rate**: Not explicitly mentioned 2. Trend Factor - **Annualized Return**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Excess Return**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Information Ratio (IR)**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Maximum Drawdown**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Monthly Win Rate**: Not explicitly mentioned 3. Crowding Factor - **Annualized Return**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Excess Return**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Information Ratio (IR)**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Maximum Drawdown**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Monthly Win Rate**: Not explicitly mentioned
中宠股份(002891):国内收入高增,海外产能持续推进
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-10-14 11:50
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 3.86 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 21.05%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 333 million yuan, up 18.21% year-on-year [1] - Domestic revenue continues to grow significantly, driven by strong brand performance and innovative product offerings [2] - The company is expanding its overseas capacity, with a focus on enhancing its global brand presence and addressing market demands [3] Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company reported a revenue of 1.428 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.86%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 130 million yuan, down 6.64% year-on-year [1] - The company expects net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 470 million, 581 million, and 720 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 19.3%, 23.6%, and 24.1% [3] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 1.54, 1.91, and 2.37 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 38 and 31 times for 2025 and 2026 [3] Brand and Product Development - The company’s core brands, including "Wanpi," "Leading," and "ZEAL," have shown strong performance in brand marketing and product innovation during Q3 [2] - Notable marketing initiatives included collaborations with popular figures and cross-industry partnerships, enhancing brand visibility and engagement [2] - New product launches, such as the "Wanpi Little Golden Shield" and the "New Zealand King Salmon" series, have contributed to increased customer traffic and sales [2] Overseas Expansion - The company has successfully entered the North American market by partnering with major e-commerce platforms, indicating progress in its global strategy [3] - Despite potential slowdowns in overseas factory growth due to previous upgrades, ongoing projects in the U.S., Canada, Mexico, and Cambodia are expected to drive future capacity expansion [3]
英维克(002837):从芯片侧向CSP侧全面突破
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-10-14 11:50
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7] Core Views - The company has achieved significant revenue growth, with a 40.2% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first three quarters of 2025, reaching 4.03 billion yuan, and a net profit of 400 million yuan, up 13% year-on-year [1] - The growth in Q3 was driven by increased revenue from energy-saving products for server rooms and cabinets, despite a slight quarter-on-quarter decline of 11% due to revenue recognition timing [2] - The company is positioned strongly in the liquid cooling market, with comprehensive product offerings and recognition from major players like Intel and Google, indicating a robust competitive advantage [3][11] Financial Performance - For 2025, the company expects revenues of 6.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 35.1%, and net profits of 603 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 33.2% [12] - The overall gross margin for the company is reported at 29.4%, with a net profit margin of 12.9%, both showing quarter-on-quarter improvements [2] - The company’s inventory has increased to 1.23 billion yuan, up 39% year-on-year, indicating a strong order backlog and project reserves [2] Market Position and Future Outlook - The liquid cooling industry is expected to become increasingly complex, with a shift towards integrated solutions that require collaboration among various stakeholders [4] - Companies with comprehensive solution capabilities will have a competitive edge, as clients increasingly rely on pre-sales design and post-sales operations [5] - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for liquid cooling solutions, particularly in the context of rising energy consumption in AI clusters [11]
9月进出口均走高的背后
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-10-14 00:22
Group 1: Macro Insights - In September, exports increased significantly, reaching a six-month high, indicating the resilience of China's export sector. The export growth rate for Q3 was 6.5%, slightly higher than in Q1 and Q2, supporting the GDP growth target of "above 5%" for the year [2] - Imports surged by 7.4% year-on-year in September, marking the highest increase in a year and a half, with industrial metals like copper and iron ore, as well as integrated circuits, being the main drivers [2] - Looking ahead to Q4, export growth may slow due to high base effects and recent escalations in US-China tariffs, but it is expected to remain positive overall, with strong support from regions outside the US [2] Group 2: Company-Specific Insights - Duople (301528.SZ) is a leading domestic provider of ultrasonic phased array testing equipment, showing strong profitability with H1 2025 revenue of 80 million yuan, up 56.2% year-on-year, and a net profit of 20 million yuan, up 12.15% [6][7] - Kaishan (300257.SZ) is a leader in high-end equipment manufacturing and renewable energy, with a revenue of 4.235 billion yuan in 2024, a 1.64% increase, and a net profit of 320 million yuan, down 26.05% [8] - 361 Degrees (01361.HK) reported strong Q3 performance with a 10% increase in adult and children's apparel sales in offline channels and a 20% increase in e-commerce sales, projecting net profits of 1.261 billion yuan for 2025 [14] - Xingyu (601799.SH) established a robotics subsidiary to expand into the emerging robotics sector, while maintaining strong growth in its core automotive lighting business, with a projected net profit of 1.7 billion yuan for 2025 [16][17] Group 3: Industry Trends - The basic chemical sector is experiencing a configuration opportunity, with a significant adjustment in the index from a peak of 9565.18 points to a low of 3876.11 points, a cumulative decline of 59.5% [12] - Strategic metals are expected to see a revaluation due to geopolitical tensions, with a focus on rare earths, tungsten, and antimony as potential investment opportunities [9][11] - The liquid cooling market is anticipated to grow, with East Sunshine's acquisition of Qinhuai Data expected to enhance its capabilities in AI infrastructure and cooling solutions [13]
开山股份(300257):压缩机与海外地热发电龙头,全球化布局空间广阔
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-10-13 13:51
Company Overview - The report rates the company as "Buy" for the first time, indicating a positive outlook for investment [4] - The company, Kaishan Holdings, is a leader in the compressor and geothermal power sectors, focusing on high-end equipment manufacturing and renewable energy development [1][11] - The company has a comprehensive compressor product line and is a domestic leader in the air compressor industry, while also extending its geothermal power business through innovative technologies [1][20] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 4.235 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.64%, with a net profit of 320 million yuan, down 26.05% year-on-year [1][5] - The net profit margin for 2024 is approximately 7.66% [1] - The company expects to see significant growth in net profit from 2025 to 2027, with projections of 4.09 billion yuan, 6.38 billion yuan, and 9.50 billion yuan respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 27.8%, 55.8%, and 48.9% [3][5] Industry Overview - The geothermal power industry is projected to see a decrease in the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) to 0.06 USD/kWh by 2024, which is expected to open up further growth opportunities in the global geothermal power market [2][41] - The global installed capacity of geothermal power plants is expected to grow from 15.4 GW in 2019 to 16.87 GW in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.84% [2][41] - Indonesia is highlighted as having the largest geothermal potential globally, with only about 2% of its potential geothermal energy currently being utilized [2][42] Business Segments - The company's compressor segment generated revenue of 2.902 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for 68.53% of total revenue, with a stable gross margin of around 30% [23][29] - The geothermal power segment reported revenue of 798 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 21.23%, contributing 18.84% to total revenue, with a gross margin exceeding 49% [23][29] - Other business segments, including compressor accessories and vacuum systems, generated revenue of 535 million yuan, accounting for 12.63% of total revenue [23][29] Global Expansion - The company is actively pursuing a global strategy, with overseas revenue accounting for approximately 44.95% of total revenue in 2024, driven by its compressor and geothermal power businesses [25][31] - The company has established new sales offices in cities like Seoul, Bangkok, and Mexico City, and is constructing a third overseas factory in Turkey [25][31] Future Outlook - The company has seven operational geothermal power projects with a total capacity of 215.5 MW and eight projects under construction with a capacity of approximately 191 MW, which are expected to contribute to revenue growth [3][29] - The report emphasizes the potential for continued growth in both the compressor and geothermal segments, supported by technological advancements and increasing global demand for renewable energy solutions [3][41]
基本面高频数据跟踪:地产销售再回落
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-10-13 13:03
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View The report updates the high - frequency data of the national economic fundamentals from October 6th to October 10th, 2025. The national high - frequency fundamental index shows an expanding year - on - year increase, while the bull - bear signal of interest - rate bonds remains unchanged. Different sectors have different trends, such as a slight decline in real - estate sales, an expanding increase in infrastructure investment, etc. [1][8][9] Summary by Directory Total Index - The national high - frequency fundamental index is 128.1 points (previous value: 128.0 points), with a year - on - year increase of 5.9 points (previous increase: 5.8 points), and the year - on - year increase is expanding. The bull - bear signal of interest - rate bonds remains unchanged, with a signal factor of 5.0% (previous value: 5.0%). [1][8][9] Production - The high - frequency industrial production index is 127.3 (previous value: 127.2), with a year - on - year increase of 5.5 points (previous increase: 5.4 points), and the year - on - year increase is expanding. The electric - furnace operating rate slightly declined, with the current rate at 59.6% (previous value: 60.3%). [1][8][14] Real - Estate Sales - The high - frequency real - estate sales index is 42.3 (previous value: 42.4), with a year - on - year decrease of 6.1 points (previous decrease: 6.2 points), and the year - on - year decline is narrowing. The land premium rate of large and medium - sized cities increased, with the current rate at 4.8% (previous value: 1.9%), while the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities decreased to 11.4 million square meters (previous value: 25.7 million square meters). [1][9][22] Infrastructure Investment - The high - frequency infrastructure investment index is 121.8 (previous value: 121.5), with a year - on - year increase of 8.1 points (previous increase: 7.3 points), and the year - on - year increase is expanding. The daily average pig - iron output slightly declined to 241.5 tons (previous value: 241.8 tons). [1][9][36] Export - The high - frequency export index is 143.7 (previous value: 143.7), with a year - on - year increase of 1.6 points (previous increase: 1.8 points), and the year - on - year increase is narrowing. The CCFI index continued to decline to 1015 points (previous value: 1087 points), and the RJ/CRB index decreased to 299.3 points (previous value: 300.3 points). [1][9][39] Consumption - The high - frequency consumption index is 120.6 (previous value: 120.5), with a year - on - year increase of 3.6 points (previous increase: 3.5 points), and the year - on - year increase is expanding. The daily average box office of movies slightly declined to 14,803 million yuan (previous value: 15,858 million yuan). [1][9][50] CPI - The month - on - month CPI forecast remains at 0.2% (previous value: 0.2%). The average wholesale price of pork continued to decline to 18.7 yuan/kg (previous value: 19.3 yuan/kg). [2][9][57] PPI - The month - on - month PPI forecast is 0.0% (previous value: - 0.1%). The crude - oil price slightly declined, with the Brent crude - oil futures settlement price at 65 US dollars/barrel (previous value: 66 US dollars/barrel), while the copper and aluminum prices continued to rise. The LME copper spot settlement price is 10,718 US dollars/ton (previous value: 10,358 US dollars/ton), and the LME aluminum spot settlement price is 2,753 US dollars/ton (previous value: 2,685 US dollars/ton). [2][9][60] Transportation - The high - frequency transportation index is 131.5 (previous value: 131.3), with a year - on - year increase of 10.0 points (previous increase: 9.8 points), and the year - on - year increase is expanding. The subway passenger volume in first - tier cities declined to 3,097 million person - times (previous value: 3,550 million person - times). [2][9][72] Inventory - The high - frequency inventory index is 162.4 (previous value: 162.3), with a year - on - year increase of 8.5 points (previous increase: 8.6 points), and the year - on - year increase is narrowing. The electrolytic - aluminum inventory declined to 13.6 million tons (previous value: 18.8 million tons). [2][9][78] Financing - The high - frequency financing index is 239.2 (previous value: 238.6), with a year - on - year increase of 30.2 points (previous increase: 30.1 points), and the year - on - year increase is expanding. The net financing of local government bonds is negative, with a value of - 246 billion yuan (previous value: 632 billion yuan). [2][9][89]