Group 1: Debt Replacement Plan Overview - The National People's Congress approved a "6+4+2" trillion yuan debt replacement plan, involving 6 trillion yuan for local government debt replacement from 2024 to 2026[1] - The local government special bond limit will increase from 29.52 trillion yuan at the end of 2024 to 35.52 trillion yuan[1] - An additional 4 trillion yuan will be allocated from new local government special bonds for debt replacement from 2024 to 2028, amounting to 800 billion yuan annually[2] Group 2: Financial Impact and Projections - The total hidden debt that local governments need to repay by 2028 will decrease to 2.3 trillion yuan, down from 14.3 trillion yuan[4] - The debt replacement is expected to save approximately 600 billion yuan in interest payments over the next five years[5] - The plan is projected to release about 4.12 trillion yuan in fiscal space over the next three years, averaging 1.37 trillion yuan annually[7] Group 3: Economic Implications - The debt replacement plan is anticipated to alleviate local government debt pressure, allowing for increased investment in economic development[4] - The reduction of hidden debt risks is expected to improve market sentiment and lower risk premiums, benefiting stock valuations[3] - The implementation of supportive monetary policy, including a potential 0.5 to 1 percentage point reserve requirement ratio cut, is anticipated to complement the fiscal measures[2]

Group 1: Federal Reserve's Rate Decisions - The Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark interest rate to a range of 4.50-4.75% in November, marking the second consecutive rate cut, aligning with market expectations[1] - The rate statement removed phrases indicating "more progress" on inflation, reflecting concerns about rising inflation, suggesting a "hawkish" tone despite the rate cut[1] - The labor market's continued slowdown is a key driver for the rate cut, with non-farm payrolls adding only 12,000 jobs in October, supporting further rate reductions[1] Group 2: Economic Outlook and Future Guidance - The Fed's forward guidance is limited due to the absence of an economic forecast summary in the November meeting, with more insights expected in December regarding the impact of Trump's policies[2] - Current market pricing indicates a 76.5% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December, but future decisions will depend on upcoming economic data, including employment and CPI reports[1] - Powell emphasized that the Fed's independence is crucial, stating he will not resign under political pressure, and any changes in policy will be based on economic data rather than political influence[2] Group 3: Market Reactions and Bond Yields - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to above 4.4%, reflecting improved market expectations for economic growth rather than inflationary pressures[6] - Historical analysis shows that this current rate cycle has seen the largest increase in 10-year Treasury yields following the first rate cut since 1990, indicating potential for a future decline after initial spikes[7] - Powell noted that despite rising yields, overall financial conditions remain relatively accommodative, suggesting that the recent yield increases may be temporary[6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 32.00, indicating a potential upside of 12.1% from the current closing price of HKD 28.55 [1][3][8]. Core Insights - The company's 3Q24 performance showed continued improvement, with revenue reaching USD 2.171 billion, a historical high, driven by increased demand in consumer electronics and higher product prices. The gross margin was 20.5%, exceeding expectations [1][2]. - The management's guidance for 4Q24 indicates revenue growth of 0-2% year-on-year and a gross margin of 18-20%, slightly above previous forecasts [1][3]. - The company is progressing steadily with its capacity expansion plans, expecting to add 30,000 12-inch wafers in 2023/24 and a slower pace in 2025, aligning with market demand recovery in the semiconductor sector [2][3]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the revenue forecast has been slightly adjusted to USD 8.017 billion with a gross margin of 17%. The 2025 revenue is projected at USD 9.094 billion with a gross margin of 20.1% [3][9]. - The net profit for 2024 is estimated at USD 664 million, with a significant increase expected in 2025 to USD 1.028 billion [5][9]. - The company’s capital expenditures for 2024 have been revised down to USD 7.67 billion, with expectations of a decrease in capital spending in the second half of 2024 [1][3]. Market Position - The company has a market capitalization of approximately HKD 170.9 billion and has shown a year-to-date price change of 43.76% [4][9]. - The stock has a 52-week high of HKD 33.30 and a low of HKD 14.02, indicating significant volatility and potential for growth [4][9]. Performance Metrics - The gross margin for 3Q24 was reported at 20.5%, a 0.6 percentage point increase year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 6.9% [6][9]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected at USD 0.65, with a recovery expected in subsequent years [5][9]. Capacity and Demand Outlook - The management anticipates a double-digit growth in wafer shipments for 2025, primarily driven by the recovery in consumer electronics, smartphones, and personal computers [2][3]. - Despite a slow recovery in industrial and automotive sectors, the company plans to invest in power and analog devices to meet customer demand, including from new energy vehicle manufacturers [2][3].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Leading" investment rating to the pharmaceutical industry, indicating an attractive outlook compared to benchmark indices over the next 12 months [6]. Core Insights - The CXO sector has recently outperformed the market, with average gains of 7.0% in Hong Kong and 7.3% in A-shares over the past week, surpassing the Hang Seng Medical Index and the CSI Pharmaceutical Index [1]. - The report highlights several factors contributing to this performance, including a shift in fund holdings, recovery in overseas demand, and improved order trends in Q3 [1]. - The election of Donald Trump as U.S. President is viewed with cautious optimism for the CXO and innovative drug sectors, with potential benefits from lower corporate costs but also risks from a more hostile regulatory environment [1]. - The report recommends focusing on high-growth segments within the industry, specifically mentioning WuXi AppTec and Genscript Biotech as key players [1]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The CXO sector's recent performance has been driven by fund reallocation and recovery in overseas markets, with significant gains noted in stock prices [1][3]. - The report provides detailed stock performance data for various companies, indicating a general upward trend in the CXO sector [3][4]. Company Ratings and Price Targets - The report lists several companies with "Buy" ratings, including: - WuXi AppTec (2268 HK) with a target price of 44.00, current price at 25.35, indicating a potential upside of 73.6% [5]. - Genscript Biotech (1548 HK) with a target price of 28.75, current price at 10.88, indicating a potential upside of 164.3% [5]. - Other notable companies with "Buy" ratings include: - AstraZeneca (AZN US) with a target price of 93.30, current price at 64.69, indicating a potential upside of 44.2% [5]. - Innovent Biologics (1801 HK) with a target price of 60.00, current price at 38.85, indicating a potential upside of 54.4% [5]. Sector Outlook - The report emphasizes the cautious optimism regarding the impact of U.S. political changes on the CXO sector, suggesting that while there may be benefits, there are also significant uncertainties [1]. - The overall sentiment towards the pharmaceutical industry remains positive, with expectations of continued growth driven by innovation and market recovery [1][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 77.36, indicating a potential upside of 54.7% from the current closing price of HKD 50.00 [3][4][15]. Core Insights - The launch of the Xiaopeng P7+ at a price range of RMB 186,800 to RMB 218,800 is seen as positive, aligning with previous expectations. The P7+ is positioned as an AI vehicle, featuring advanced AI technologies and a focus on comfort and spaciousness [1][2]. - The company is expected to have a strong product year ahead, with the M03 and P7+ models likely to positively influence future releases. There is potential for upward adjustments in sales forecasts due to the market not yet pricing in the impact of range-extended vehicles [3][6]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Xiaopeng Motors has launched the P7+ model, which is equipped with the AI Tianji 5.4.0 system and features OTA upgradeable range capabilities. The model has already seen significant demand, with over 10,000 pre-orders within 12 minutes of its launch [1]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 26,855 million in 2022 to RMB 39,627 million in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 29.2%. However, net losses are expected to decrease from RMB 10,376 million in 2023 to RMB 4,848 million in 2024 [6][17]. - The company anticipates a significant increase in cash flow and assets, with cash and cash equivalents expected to rise from RMB 14,714 million in 2023 to RMB 24,302 million in 2024 [17]. Market Position and Strategy - Xiaopeng Motors is expanding its global presence, aiming to enter 60 countries by next year, up from 30 currently. The company has also developed the Turing AI chip, which is designed for use in AI vehicles and robots, indicating a strong focus on technological advancement [2][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for New Oriental Education Technology (9901 HK) with a target price of HKD 75.00, indicating a potential upside of 53.8% from the current price of HKD 48.75 [1][4][9]. Core Insights - The overall performance of New Oriental is expected to be influenced by uncertainties surrounding the Oriental Selection business, but the education and cultural tourism segments remain robust. The contribution of Oriental Selection to overall profits is deemed minor [1][2]. - The revenue contribution from Oriental Selection for the fiscal year 2025 is adjusted down to 12% from the previous 15%, with revenue forecasts for Oriental Selection set at USD 623 million for FY25 and USD 710 million for FY26 [2][3]. - The education and cultural tourism businesses are projected to grow at a rate of 31% for FY25, with an operational profit margin improvement of 1 percentage point to 13%, translating to approximately USD 580 million [2][3]. Financial Projections - Revenue for FY25 is forecasted at USD 5.079 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 31%. The operational profit margin is expected to improve to 13% [2][10]. - The adjusted net profit for FY25 is projected at USD 553 million, with a net profit margin of 10.9% [3][10]. - The report anticipates a revenue of USD 1.007 billion for Q2 FY25, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 28% [2][6]. Key Financial Metrics - The gross margin is expected to improve to 54.9% in FY25, with operational profit margins projected to reach 10.9% [3][10]. - The adjusted operating profit for FY25 is estimated at USD 551 million, with a significant increase in net profit expected in subsequent years [3][10]. - The report highlights a projected increase in cash flow from operating activities, expected to reach USD 1.138 billion by FY25 [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for Yili Industrial Group Co Ltd (600887 CH) with a target price of RMB 33.30, representing a potential upside of 15.2% from the current price of RMB 28.90 [1][2] Core Views - Yili's Q3 2024 gross margin improved to 35.0%, up 2.5 percentage points YoY and 1.2 percentage points QoQ, driven by lower raw milk prices and product mix optimization [1] - Net profit in Q3 2024 increased by 8.5% YoY to RMB 3.34 billion, with a net profit margin of 11.5%, up 1.6 percentage points YoY [1] - The liquid milk business saw double-digit declines in Q3 2024, but the decline in ambient milk improved sequentially, outperforming ambient yogurt and ambient milk beverages [1] - Yili's market share in ambient milk increased by nearly 1 percentage point in the first three quarters of 2024 [1] - The low-temperature milk business maintained growth, with low-temperature milk achieving double-digit growth and market share expansion [1] - The infant formula business achieved high single-digit growth in the first three quarters of 2024, with market share increasing by 2 percentage points to 13.2% [1] - Raw milk supply is expected to slow down, narrowing the supply-demand gap, with policy incentives and improved consumer sentiment likely to drive a slight recovery in dairy product demand [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for Q3 2024 was RMB 29.1 billion, down 6.7% YoY but with a narrower decline compared to Q2 2024 (down 16.5% YoY) [1] - Revenue for 2024E is projected at RMB 119.3 billion, down 5.5% YoY, with a recovery expected in 2025E to RMB 127.4 billion, up 6.8% YoY [3] - Net profit for 2024E is forecasted at RMB 12.2 billion, up 17.7% YoY, with EPS of RMB 1.92 [3] - Gross margin for 2024E is expected to be 34.1%, up from 32.8% in 2023, with further improvement to 34.5% in 2025E [6] - ROE for 2024E is projected at 21.4%, up from 20.1% in 2023 [6] Industry and Competitive Position - The optimization of upstream supply is expected to benefit leading companies like Yili, with raw material price advantages potentially squeezing out smaller competitors [1] - Long-term demand drivers include per capita milk consumption, penetration rates, and the implementation of student milk policies [1] - Yili's competitive position is strengthened by its market share gains in ambient milk and infant formula, as well as its focus on premium products like the Jin Dian Organic series [1] Valuation - The target price of RMB 33.30 is based on 18x 2025E P/E, a 0.5 standard deviation below the 3-year historical average P/E [1] - The current P/E for 2024E is 15.1x, with a P/B ratio of 3.03x [3] - Dividend yield for 2024E is projected at 4.7%, up from 4.1% in 2023 [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is downgraded to Neutral with a target price of HKD 3.06, indicating a potential upside of 14.1% from the current closing price of HKD 2.68 [1][4][3]. Core Insights - The company experienced a decline in both revenue and net profit for the first half of the fiscal year 2025, with revenue dropping by 7.9% year-on-year to RMB 13.05 billion, slightly below market expectations. The gross margin decreased by 3.6 percentage points to 41.1%, primarily due to increased discount rates and a higher proportion of lower-margin wholesale channels [1][3]. - The company maintained a high dividend payout ratio, with an interim dividend of RMB 0.14 per share, resulting in a payout ratio of 99.4%, and an average payout ratio exceeding 100% over the past three years [1][5]. - The total number of stores decreased by 396 year-on-year to 5,813, with a 1.9% decline in total sales area compared to the previous year. However, the average sales area per store increased by 4.8% [2]. - The company has enhanced its membership quality, with a total membership count reaching 81 million, reflecting a 10.8% year-on-year growth. The contribution of repeat members to overall sales remains stable at 60-70% [2]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal years ending February 29, the projected revenues are as follows: RMB 26.58 billion for 2025E (down 8.1% year-on-year), RMB 27.57 billion for 2026E (up 3.7%), and RMB 29.11 billion for 2027E (up 5.6%) [5][9]. - The net profit is expected to be RMB 1.47 billion for 2025E (down 33.4% year-on-year), RMB 1.67 billion for 2026E (up 13.6%), and RMB 1.85 billion for 2027E (up 10.6%) [5][9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025E is RMB 0.24, with a significant downward adjustment of 42.2% from previous estimates [5][9].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on SMIC with a **Buy** rating and sets a target price of **HKD 32.00**, implying a potential upside of **16.4%** from the current price of HKD 27.50 [2][4] Core Views - SMIC is positioned as a leader in the semiconductor foundry industry, playing a critical role in the localization of China's semiconductor supply chain [2] - The company's expansion plans are progressing steadily, with capital expenditures (CapEx) expected to stabilize after 2025, following a period of high investment in 2022-2024 [2][10] - Localization efforts and recovery in key industries such as smartphones and consumer electronics are expected to support SMIC's fundamentals [2][3] - The company's capacity utilization is projected to rebound from a low of 68.1% in 1Q23 to 84.7% in 2024, driven by demand from smartphones and consumer electronics [3][44] Financial Projections - Revenue is forecasted to grow from **USD 7.975 billion in 2024** to **USD 10.375 billion in 2026**, with a CAGR of 14% [6][9] - Gross margins are expected to recover from **16.8% in 2024** to **22.3% in 2026**, driven by reduced CapEx pressure and improved pricing [4][11] - Net profit is projected to increase from **USD 744 million in 2024** to **USD 1.342 billion in 2026**, with diluted EPS rising from **USD 0.09** to **USD 0.17** [6][20] Capacity Expansion - SMIC plans to add **34,000 wafers/month of 12-inch capacity** over the next 5-7 years, with **6,000 wafers/month** added in 2024 and **4,500 wafers/month** in both 2025 and 2026 [32][36] - Total 8-inch equivalent capacity is expected to reach **1.046 million wafers/month by 2025**, up from **806,000 wafers/month in 2023** [12][36] Capital Expenditure - CapEx peaked at **USD 7.47 billion in 2023** and is expected to decline to **USD 5.67 billion in 2025** and **USD 5.60 billion in 2026**, as the company transitions from heavy investment to stable capacity expansion [10][39] - The high CapEx in 2022-2024 was driven by the need to secure equipment ahead of potential geopolitical restrictions, with **70% of CapEx allocated to semiconductor equipment** [38][40] Localization and Demand Recovery - Localization of semiconductor manufacturing, particularly in smartphones and electric vehicles, is expected to drive long-term demand for SMIC's services [44][49] - Smartphone demand recovery, driven by inventory replenishment and policy support, is expected to boost SMIC's capacity utilization and pricing power [54][56] Valuation - The target price of **HKD 32.00** is based on a **1.5x 2025 P/B ratio**, reflecting SMIC's improving profitability and capacity utilization [4][23] - SMIC's valuation is supported by its strategic role in China's semiconductor localization and its potential to capture a larger share of the domestic market [24][25] Key Catalysts - Successful conversion of CapEx into effective capacity and steady progress in capacity expansion [25] - Further recovery in downstream demand, particularly in automotive, industrial, and communication sectors [25] - Policy support for semiconductor localization and potential advancements in advanced node technologies [25]

| --- | --- | |-----------------------|------------------------------| | 交银国际研究 宏观策略 | | | | | | 全球宏观 | 2024 年 11 月 4 日 | 飓风罢工夹击，就业仅增 1.2 万—美国 10 月非农就业点评 美国10月非农新增就业仅1.2万人，预期11.3万人，前值修正为22.3万人。10 月失业率维持在 4.1%，持平预期和前值。劳动参与率降至 62.6%，低于预期和 上月的62.7%。10月平均时薪同比增速维持在4.0%，持平预期3.8%，上月修正 为 3.9%；平均时薪环比增 0.4%，高于预期的 0.3%，上月修正为 0.3%。平均每 周工时为 34.3，上月修正为 34.3。 10月非农新增就业数据大幅低于预期，主要受到飓风和罢工夹击。美国10 月非农就业仅新增 1.2 万人，大幅低于预期的 11.3 万人，或主要受到了两 次飓风，以及部分行业罢工的影响，美国劳工部的一项调查数据显示10月 有 51.2 万人因天气原因而不能工作。飓风带来的影响不仅是实质上的减少 招聘以及造成临时失业，还造成了非农调查 ...