交银国际研究 行业更新 电池行业月报 2024 年 11 月 12 日 10 月中国电池装车量同比增 51%；固态电池行业催化频发 受益于新能源车销量增长，2024 年 10 月动力电池装车量同比增长 51%； 磷酸铁锂装车量占比进一步提升至 79%。10 月新能源车零售销量录得 119.6 万辆，同/环比+56.7%/+6.4%，新能源车渗透率连续第四个月突破 50%。受益于此，根据中国汽车动力电池产业创新联盟公众号，10 月中国 动力电池装车量同/环比分别增长 51.0%/8.6%至 59.2 GWh。1-10 月中国动 力电池累计装车量 405.8 GWh，同比+37.6%。其中，宁德时代和比亚迪当 月装车量 25.3 GWh/15.8 GWh，市占率分别环比-1.2/+2.5 个百分点。磷酸 铁锂电池装车量继续维持强于三元的增势，10 月三元锂电池同/环比下降 1.1%/7.2%，而磷酸铁锂电池装车量同/环比增长 75.1%/13.7%至 47 GWh， 磷酸铁锂占比环比提升 3.6 个百分点至 79.4%。 10 月中国动力电池产销量同比高增，储能出口维持强劲增速。10 月中国 电池总产量为 113 ...

| --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------|-------|-------|-------------------------------| | 交银国际研究 宏观策略 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2024 年 11 月 11 日 | | 中国宏观 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | "10 万亿"化债影响几何？—人大常委会化债方案简评 2024 年 11 月 8 日，全国人大常委会办公厅举办新闻发布会，介绍会议表决通 过了"6+4+2"万亿元（人民币，下同）隐债置换方案，具体来看： 1）6 万亿元：新增地方政府债限额 6 万亿元用于置换地方隐形债务，分 2024- 26 年三年实施，地方政府专项债限额由 2024 年末的 29.52 万亿元提升至 35.52 万亿元。作为增量政策，此举也为近年来化债力度最大的举措，考虑到 2023 年初至今已安排的特殊再融资债 2.2 万亿元以及特殊新增专项债 1.2 万亿元， 年均 1.7 万亿元，而未来三年年均 2 万亿元的化债力度较此前明显增大。 2）4 万亿元：人大 ...

交银国际研究 宏观策略 2024 年 11 月 8 日 全球宏观 全球流动性风向标系列（十五） 降息路径将迎特朗普考验—11 月美联储 FOMC 会议点评 2024 年 11 月 8 日，美国大选后，市场焦点重回美联储。11 月 FOMC 会议将基 准利率下调至 4.50-4.75%区间，为连续第二次降息，符合市场及我们的预期。 利率声明删减了对通胀取得"更多进展、更大信心"的表述，反映了委员会对于 通胀的担忧，基调上是一次"偏鹰"的降息。但尽管如此，劳动力市场的继续放 缓仍成为了推动降息的关键。由于 11 月会议没有经济预测摘要，所传递出来 的前瞻性指引相对有限，而美联储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会上亦未给出明确的 降息指引及对特朗普政策影响的预判，并明确表示不会辞职，强调美联储独立 性。我们预计更多针对特朗普政策带来的潜在影响可能会在 12 月会议的经济 预测摘要中有所反映，即关注对经济增速、通胀预期给出的预期指引，以及相 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|------------------------------------------------------------ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 32.00, indicating a potential upside of 12.1% from the current closing price of HKD 28.55 [1][3][8]. Core Insights - The company's 3Q24 performance showed continued improvement, with revenue reaching USD 2.171 billion, a historical high, driven by increased demand in consumer electronics and higher product prices. The gross margin was 20.5%, exceeding expectations [1][2]. - The management's guidance for 4Q24 indicates revenue growth of 0-2% year-on-year and a gross margin of 18-20%, slightly above previous forecasts [1][3]. - The company is progressing steadily with its capacity expansion plans, expecting to add 30,000 12-inch wafers in 2023/24 and a slower pace in 2025, aligning with market demand recovery in the semiconductor sector [2][3]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the revenue forecast has been slightly adjusted to USD 8.017 billion with a gross margin of 17%. The 2025 revenue is projected at USD 9.094 billion with a gross margin of 20.1% [3][9]. - The net profit for 2024 is estimated at USD 664 million, with a significant increase expected in 2025 to USD 1.028 billion [5][9]. - The company’s capital expenditures for 2024 have been revised down to USD 7.67 billion, with expectations of a decrease in capital spending in the second half of 2024 [1][3]. Market Position - The company has a market capitalization of approximately HKD 170.9 billion and has shown a year-to-date price change of 43.76% [4][9]. - The stock has a 52-week high of HKD 33.30 and a low of HKD 14.02, indicating significant volatility and potential for growth [4][9]. Performance Metrics - The gross margin for 3Q24 was reported at 20.5%, a 0.6 percentage point increase year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 6.9% [6][9]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected at USD 0.65, with a recovery expected in subsequent years [5][9]. Capacity and Demand Outlook - The management anticipates a double-digit growth in wafer shipments for 2025, primarily driven by the recovery in consumer electronics, smartphones, and personal computers [2][3]. - Despite a slow recovery in industrial and automotive sectors, the company plans to invest in power and analog devices to meet customer demand, including from new energy vehicle manufacturers [2][3].

交银国际研究 行业更新 行业评级 领先 2024 年 11 月 8 日 医药行业 美国大选落幕，对中国 CXO 行业影响几何？ CXO板块近期跑赢市场：过去一周内港股/A股CXO板块分别录得7.0%/7.3% 的平均涨幅，略高于恒生医疗指数/中证医药指数的+4.1%/+6.5%、恒生指 数/沪深 300 指数的+3.1%/+6.5%。我们认为，本轮上涨主要和以下因素有 关：1）筹码结构调整，此前基金持股低位/减持或 YTD 表现较弱标的有资 金回流、估值修复趋势（图表 1）；2）海外景气度复苏，3 季度业绩继续 显示订单改善趋势；3）特朗普当选美国总统后，板块投资情绪边际改善， 叠加美联储 11 月降息预期逐步反映在股价中。 特朗普当选对CXO 和创新药板块影响：对于特朗普当选后的国内CXO海外 业务发展前景，市场似乎呈相对乐观态度，但我们认为可能会呈现喜忧参 半格局：1）作为共和党商人的特朗普更主张为企业降本控费、市场调控 而非政府干预，从而利好成本效率更高的中国 CXO 企业，但共和党强化控 制的国会或将对中国 CXO 整体采取更不友善的态度，并在药品供应链上倡 导"美国优先"；2）拜登政府签发布的 IR ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 77.36, indicating a potential upside of 54.7% from the current closing price of HKD 50.00 [3][4][15]. Core Insights - The launch of the Xiaopeng P7+ at a price range of RMB 186,800 to RMB 218,800 is seen as positive, aligning with previous expectations. The P7+ is positioned as an AI vehicle, featuring advanced AI technologies and a focus on comfort and spaciousness [1][2]. - The company is expected to have a strong product year ahead, with the M03 and P7+ models likely to positively influence future releases. There is potential for upward adjustments in sales forecasts due to the market not yet pricing in the impact of range-extended vehicles [3][6]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Xiaopeng Motors has launched the P7+ model, which is equipped with the AI Tianji 5.4.0 system and features OTA upgradeable range capabilities. The model has already seen significant demand, with over 10,000 pre-orders within 12 minutes of its launch [1]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 26,855 million in 2022 to RMB 39,627 million in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 29.2%. However, net losses are expected to decrease from RMB 10,376 million in 2023 to RMB 4,848 million in 2024 [6][17]. - The company anticipates a significant increase in cash flow and assets, with cash and cash equivalents expected to rise from RMB 14,714 million in 2023 to RMB 24,302 million in 2024 [17]. Market Position and Strategy - Xiaopeng Motors is expanding its global presence, aiming to enter 60 countries by next year, up from 30 currently. The company has also developed the Turing AI chip, which is designed for use in AI vehicles and robots, indicating a strong focus on technological advancement [2][3].

交银国际研究 财务模型更新 资料来源：FactSet，公司资料, 交银国际预测 ^净利润和每股盈利基于 Non-GAAP 基础 资料来源：FactSet，公司资料, 交银国际预测 ^净利润和每股盈利基于 Non-GAAP 基础 收盘价 目标价 潜在涨幅 港元 48.75 港元 75.00↓ +53.8% 教育 2024 年 11 月 6 日 新东方教育科技 (9901 HK) 教育业务稳健，利润率优化趋势不改 我们基于 2025 财年 1 季度披露业务数据调整了新东方的盈利预测及估值。我 们认为公司短期整体业绩增长仍然将受到东方甄选业务的不确定性影响，但 教育及文旅业务仍表现稳健，虽然东方甄选利润贡献仍有不确定性，但对新 东方整体利润/亏损贡献较小，我们按公司整体给予 25 倍市盈率（12 个月利 润，截至 2026 年 2 月），对应目标价 75 港元/105 美元（EDU US），现价对 应 2025/26 财年 18/14 倍市盈率，对应 45%/33%利润增速，维持买入评级。 调整东方甄选收入及利润贡献预测，对新东方 2025 财年收入贡献降至 12%。根据蝉妈妈数据，我们调整 2025/26 财年东 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for Yili Industrial Group Co Ltd (600887 CH) with a target price of RMB 33.30, representing a potential upside of 15.2% from the current price of RMB 28.90 [1][2] Core Views - Yili's Q3 2024 gross margin improved to 35.0%, up 2.5 percentage points YoY and 1.2 percentage points QoQ, driven by lower raw milk prices and product mix optimization [1] - Net profit in Q3 2024 increased by 8.5% YoY to RMB 3.34 billion, with a net profit margin of 11.5%, up 1.6 percentage points YoY [1] - The liquid milk business saw double-digit declines in Q3 2024, but the decline in ambient milk improved sequentially, outperforming ambient yogurt and ambient milk beverages [1] - Yili's market share in ambient milk increased by nearly 1 percentage point in the first three quarters of 2024 [1] - The low-temperature milk business maintained growth, with low-temperature milk achieving double-digit growth and market share expansion [1] - The infant formula business achieved high single-digit growth in the first three quarters of 2024, with market share increasing by 2 percentage points to 13.2% [1] - Raw milk supply is expected to slow down, narrowing the supply-demand gap, with policy incentives and improved consumer sentiment likely to drive a slight recovery in dairy product demand [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for Q3 2024 was RMB 29.1 billion, down 6.7% YoY but with a narrower decline compared to Q2 2024 (down 16.5% YoY) [1] - Revenue for 2024E is projected at RMB 119.3 billion, down 5.5% YoY, with a recovery expected in 2025E to RMB 127.4 billion, up 6.8% YoY [3] - Net profit for 2024E is forecasted at RMB 12.2 billion, up 17.7% YoY, with EPS of RMB 1.92 [3] - Gross margin for 2024E is expected to be 34.1%, up from 32.8% in 2023, with further improvement to 34.5% in 2025E [6] - ROE for 2024E is projected at 21.4%, up from 20.1% in 2023 [6] Industry and Competitive Position - The optimization of upstream supply is expected to benefit leading companies like Yili, with raw material price advantages potentially squeezing out smaller competitors [1] - Long-term demand drivers include per capita milk consumption, penetration rates, and the implementation of student milk policies [1] - Yili's competitive position is strengthened by its market share gains in ambient milk and infant formula, as well as its focus on premium products like the Jin Dian Organic series [1] Valuation - The target price of RMB 33.30 is based on 18x 2025E P/E, a 0.5 standard deviation below the 3-year historical average P/E [1] - The current P/E for 2024E is 15.1x, with a P/B ratio of 3.03x [3] - Dividend yield for 2024E is projected at 4.7%, up from 4.1% in 2023 [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is downgraded to Neutral with a target price of HKD 3.06, indicating a potential upside of 14.1% from the current closing price of HKD 2.68 [1][4][3]. Core Insights - The company experienced a decline in both revenue and net profit for the first half of the fiscal year 2025, with revenue dropping by 7.9% year-on-year to RMB 13.05 billion, slightly below market expectations. The gross margin decreased by 3.6 percentage points to 41.1%, primarily due to increased discount rates and a higher proportion of lower-margin wholesale channels [1][3]. - The company maintained a high dividend payout ratio, with an interim dividend of RMB 0.14 per share, resulting in a payout ratio of 99.4%, and an average payout ratio exceeding 100% over the past three years [1][5]. - The total number of stores decreased by 396 year-on-year to 5,813, with a 1.9% decline in total sales area compared to the previous year. However, the average sales area per store increased by 4.8% [2]. - The company has enhanced its membership quality, with a total membership count reaching 81 million, reflecting a 10.8% year-on-year growth. The contribution of repeat members to overall sales remains stable at 60-70% [2]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal years ending February 29, the projected revenues are as follows: RMB 26.58 billion for 2025E (down 8.1% year-on-year), RMB 27.57 billion for 2026E (up 3.7%), and RMB 29.11 billion for 2027E (up 5.6%) [5][9]. - The net profit is expected to be RMB 1.47 billion for 2025E (down 33.4% year-on-year), RMB 1.67 billion for 2026E (up 13.6%), and RMB 1.85 billion for 2027E (up 10.6%) [5][9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025E is RMB 0.24, with a significant downward adjustment of 42.2% from previous estimates [5][9].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on SMIC with a **Buy** rating and sets a target price of **HKD 32.00**, implying a potential upside of **16.4%** from the current price of HKD 27.50 [2][4] Core Views - SMIC is positioned as a leader in the semiconductor foundry industry, playing a critical role in the localization of China's semiconductor supply chain [2] - The company's expansion plans are progressing steadily, with capital expenditures (CapEx) expected to stabilize after 2025, following a period of high investment in 2022-2024 [2][10] - Localization efforts and recovery in key industries such as smartphones and consumer electronics are expected to support SMIC's fundamentals [2][3] - The company's capacity utilization is projected to rebound from a low of 68.1% in 1Q23 to 84.7% in 2024, driven by demand from smartphones and consumer electronics [3][44] Financial Projections - Revenue is forecasted to grow from **USD 7.975 billion in 2024** to **USD 10.375 billion in 2026**, with a CAGR of 14% [6][9] - Gross margins are expected to recover from **16.8% in 2024** to **22.3% in 2026**, driven by reduced CapEx pressure and improved pricing [4][11] - Net profit is projected to increase from **USD 744 million in 2024** to **USD 1.342 billion in 2026**, with diluted EPS rising from **USD 0.09** to **USD 0.17** [6][20] Capacity Expansion - SMIC plans to add **34,000 wafers/month of 12-inch capacity** over the next 5-7 years, with **6,000 wafers/month** added in 2024 and **4,500 wafers/month** in both 2025 and 2026 [32][36] - Total 8-inch equivalent capacity is expected to reach **1.046 million wafers/month by 2025**, up from **806,000 wafers/month in 2023** [12][36] Capital Expenditure - CapEx peaked at **USD 7.47 billion in 2023** and is expected to decline to **USD 5.67 billion in 2025** and **USD 5.60 billion in 2026**, as the company transitions from heavy investment to stable capacity expansion [10][39] - The high CapEx in 2022-2024 was driven by the need to secure equipment ahead of potential geopolitical restrictions, with **70% of CapEx allocated to semiconductor equipment** [38][40] Localization and Demand Recovery - Localization of semiconductor manufacturing, particularly in smartphones and electric vehicles, is expected to drive long-term demand for SMIC's services [44][49] - Smartphone demand recovery, driven by inventory replenishment and policy support, is expected to boost SMIC's capacity utilization and pricing power [54][56] Valuation - The target price of **HKD 32.00** is based on a **1.5x 2025 P/B ratio**, reflecting SMIC's improving profitability and capacity utilization [4][23] - SMIC's valuation is supported by its strategic role in China's semiconductor localization and its potential to capture a larger share of the domestic market [24][25] Key Catalysts - Successful conversion of CapEx into effective capacity and steady progress in capacity expansion [25] - Further recovery in downstream demand, particularly in automotive, industrial, and communication sectors [25] - Policy support for semiconductor localization and potential advancements in advanced node technologies [25]