| --- | --- | |-----------------------|------------------------------| | 交银国际研究 宏观策略 | | | | | | 全球宏观 | 2024 年 11 月 4 日 | 飓风罢工夹击，就业仅增 1.2 万—美国 10 月非农就业点评 美国10月非农新增就业仅1.2万人，预期11.3万人，前值修正为22.3万人。10 月失业率维持在 4.1%，持平预期和前值。劳动参与率降至 62.6%，低于预期和 上月的62.7%。10月平均时薪同比增速维持在4.0%，持平预期3.8%，上月修正 为 3.9%；平均时薪环比增 0.4%，高于预期的 0.3%，上月修正为 0.3%。平均每 周工时为 34.3，上月修正为 34.3。 10月非农新增就业数据大幅低于预期，主要受到飓风和罢工夹击。美国10 月非农就业仅新增 1.2 万人，大幅低于预期的 11.3 万人，或主要受到了两 次飓风，以及部分行业罢工的影响，美国劳工部的一项调查数据显示10月 有 51.2 万人因天气原因而不能工作。飓风带来的影响不仅是实质上的减少 招聘以及造成临时失业，还造成了非农调查 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Midea Group with a target price of RMB 89.90, indicating a potential upside of 23.4% from the current closing price of RMB 72.84 [1][3][4]. Core Insights - Midea Group's profit growth continues to show double-digit increases, aligning with market expectations. For the first three quarters of 2024, the company's revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders grew by 9.6% and 14.4%, reaching RMB 319 billion and RMB 31.7 billion, respectively. In Q3 alone, revenue and net profit increased by 8.1% and 14.9%, amounting to RMB 101.7 billion and RMB 10.9 billion [1][2]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters reached 26.8%, a 1 percentage point increase from the same period in 2023. This improvement, along with a reduction in expense ratios, led to an operating profit margin increase of 0.4 percentage points to 12.0% [1][2]. - The report highlights strong performance in both C-end (consumer) and B-end (business) segments, with C-end sales growing by 7% in Q3, driven by robust external sales, particularly in the OEM and OBM businesses in emerging markets [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2022, Midea Group reported revenue of RMB 345.7 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 0.7%. Projections for 2023 and 2024 estimate revenues of RMB 373.7 billion and RMB 409.3 billion, reflecting growth rates of 8.1% and 9.5%, respectively [5][9]. - Net profit for 2022 was RMB 29.8 billion, with forecasts of RMB 33.7 billion for 2023 and RMB 38.1 billion for 2024, indicating growth rates of 13.6% and 10.1% [5][9]. - The report anticipates a slight adjustment in revenue and profit expectations for 2025, with a conservative reduction of 3% and 8%, respectively, due to uncertainties surrounding policy impacts [3][5].

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------|-------------------------|---------------------------|-----------------|------------------------------| | 交银国际研究 公司更新 | | | | | | | | | | | | 新能源 | 收盘价 人民币 90.62 | 目标价 人民币 104.80↑ | 潜在涨幅 +15.6% | 2024 年 11 月 1 日 | | 阳光电源 | (300274 CH) | | | | 滞后确认的储能收入有望在 4 季度兌现， 发行 GDR 加速海外产能布局 储能收入确认滞后导致收入增长较慢和盈利下降：公司3季度收入/归母净 利189/26.4亿元（人民币，下同），同比+6.4%/-8.0%，环比+2.8%/-7.8% 。 收入增长较慢主要是由于储能系统收入确认滞后于发货，发货量大增尚未 反映在收入。盈利同比下降主要是由于毛利率下降和销售、研发费用大 增。期內毛利率 29.5%，同/环比小幅下降 1.2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 120.34, indicating a potential upside of 12.0% from the current price of HKD 107.40 [1][3][4]. Core Insights - The company's Q3 2024 performance showed strong revenue growth of 23.6% year-on-year, reaching RMB 428.7 billion, driven by improved gross margins and cost control [1][3]. - The guidance for Q4 2024 indicates a slight increase in delivery volume to 160,000-170,000 vehicles, but revenue expectations suggest a continued decline in average selling price (ASP) to around RMB 260,000 [2][3]. - The company is facing short-term pressure due to the absence of new model launches, which may impact sales in Q4 [3][2]. Financial Performance Summary - Q3 2024 revenue was RMB 428.7 billion, with a gross margin of 20.9%, exceeding market expectations [1]. - The company reported a net profit of RMB 28.1 billion in Q3 2024, significantly above market forecasts [1]. - For the full year 2023, revenue is projected to reach RMB 123.851 billion, with a net profit of RMB 11.704 billion, marking a substantial recovery from a net loss of RMB 2.012 billion in 2022 [6][9]. Sales and Production Insights - Q3 2024 vehicle sales reached 153,000 units, a 40.8% increase quarter-on-quarter, supported by the L6 model's strong performance [1][7]. - The ASP for Q3 2024 was RMB 274,000, reflecting a decrease due to the higher sales proportion of the lower-priced L6 model [1][2]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The company is expected to face increased competition in the mid-to-large SUV market, particularly with the anticipated launch of new models from competitors [2][3]. - The report highlights the potential for further price reductions in Q4 to maintain competitiveness, especially with the L6 model's growing market share [2].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to China Biologic Products (1177 HK) with a target price of HK$4.80, indicating a potential upside of 36.8% from the current price of HK$3.51 [4]. Core Insights - The company reported a strong performance in Q3 2024, with revenue increasing by 14.3% year-on-year to RMB 5.47 billion, driven by the rapid growth of biosimilars and new products [1]. - Adjusted net profit surged by 58.0% to RMB 600 million, exceeding expectations [1]. - Management maintains a double-digit revenue growth guidance for the full year, with specific sales expectations for 2024 including RMB 2 billion from biosimilars and over RMB 500 million from Yilishu [1]. - The company is set to acquire control of Haorunbo (688656 CH), marking its entry into the immunodiagnostics sector, with a planned acquisition of up to 55.00% of the shares [2]. - The acquisition price is set at RMB 33.74 per share, representing a 5% premium over the last trading day before suspension [2]. Summary by Sections Q3 Performance - Q3 2024 revenue reached RMB 5.47 billion, a 14.3% increase year-on-year, attributed to the growth of biosimilars and new product launches [1]. - Adjusted net profit rose by 58.0% to RMB 600 million, surpassing expectations [1]. Future Growth Prospects - The company expects biosimilars to generate RMB 2 billion in sales in 2024, with specific products like Bevacizumab and Trastuzumab projected to contribute RMB 700-800 million and around RMB 500 million, respectively [1]. - New product launches in 2025 are anticipated to further enhance revenue, with the first-year sales of the biosimilar Pertuzumab expected to exceed RMB 800 million [1]. Acquisition Strategy - The acquisition of Haorunbo will provide China Biologic Products with control over a company focused on immunodiagnostics, enhancing its product portfolio in respiratory and autoimmune disease areas [2]. - Haorunbo reported revenues of RMB 394 million and a net profit of RMB 43.3 million in 2023, with commitments from original shareholders for future profit guarantees [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Weichai Power (2338 HK) with a target price of HKD 18.60, indicating a potential upside of 57.9% from the current price of HKD 11.78 [1][3][8]. Core Insights - Weichai Power's gross margin improved against the trend in Q3 2024, with a gross margin of 22.1%, exceeding expectations due to a decline in raw material prices. Despite a decrease in revenue and net profit, the performance was better than the overall heavy truck wholesale sales decline [1][2]. - The report highlights a recovery in logistics demand for heavy trucks in Q4 2024, driven by new policies supporting the replacement of old vehicles, particularly in major cities like Shanghai and Beijing [2][3]. - The valuation remains attractive, with projected P/E ratios of 7.8x for 2024 and 6.8x for 2025, alongside dividend yields of 7.2% and 7.9% respectively [3][5]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, Weichai Power is expected to generate revenue of RMB 235.46 billion, a year-on-year growth of 10.1%. Net profit is projected at RMB 11.84 billion, reflecting a growth of 31.3% [5][9]. - The report outlines a significant increase in net profit from RMB 9.01 billion in 2023 to RMB 11.84 billion in 2024, with earnings per share expected to rise from RMB 1.05 to RMB 1.38 [5][9]. - The company’s gross profit margin is anticipated to improve from 18.7% in 2022 to 21.1% in 2024, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price raised from HKD 25 to HKD 32, indicating a potential upside of 16.6% [1][2][4]. Core Insights - The company has shown robust earnings performance, with a significant year-on-year increase in net profit of 65.5% for the first three quarters, aligning with prior earnings forecasts [1]. - The new business value has increased by 37.9% year-on-year, with a new business value rate of 20.1%, up by 6.2 percentage points compared to the previous year [1][2]. - The individual insurance channel's quality continues to improve, with a 3.3% increase in premium scale, primarily driven by new business contributions from agents [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2022, the company reported total revenue of RMB 332,140 million, with a projected revenue of RMB 405,133 million for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 25.1% [3][9]. - The net profit for 2022 was RMB 37,381 million, with an expected increase to RMB 46,099 million in 2024, indicating a growth rate of 69.1% [3][9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to rise from RMB 3.89 in 2022 to RMB 4.79 in 2024, representing a significant increase [3][9]. Business Segment Insights - The property and casualty insurance segment saw a premium income growth of 7.7%, with a combined cost ratio of 98.7%, which is stable year-on-year but has increased by 1.6 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [2][5]. - Investment income has significantly increased, with total investment income rising to a rate of 4.7%, up by 2.3 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to higher stock investment returns [2][5]. Valuation Metrics - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 5.2 for 2024, indicating a favorable valuation compared to its historical performance [3][9]. - The price-to-embedded value (P/EV) is expected to be 0.4 in 2024, suggesting that the stock is undervalued relative to its embedded value [3][9].

交银国际研究 公司更新 收盘价 目标价 潜在涨幅 港元 25.80 港元 30.50↑ +18.2% 保险 2024 年 10 月 31 日 新华保险 (1336 HK) 盈利具较高弹性，新业务价值增速领先同业，但 2025 年面临高基数 2024 年 3 季度盈利大幅提升，略高于预告区间上限。前三季度新华实现归 母净利润同比增长 116.7%，略高于公司此前预告的区间上限（95- 115%）。分季度来看，3 季度单季盈利为 96 亿元（人民币，下同），在 去年同期净亏损的基础上大幅提升，主要受益于股票投资收益回升。公司 去年 4 季度净亏损 8.3 亿元，预计 2024 全年盈利表现将较前三季度进一步 提升。 保费结构优化，但仍依赖银保渠道。保费收入同比增长 1.9%，增长主要 来自续期保费，但被银保趸交保费的同比下降部分抵消。10 年期以上期 交保费同比增长 21.3%，占新单期交保费比重 12.4%，同比上升 0.9 个百分 点。银保期交占新单期交保费的比重 63%，较上半年进一步提升。 新业务价值增速在同业中领先。前三季度新业务价值同比增长 79.2%，增 速较上半年进一步提升，增速领先同业。 投资收 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for the company, Datang New Energy (1798 HK), with a target price of HKD 1.92, indicating a potential downside of 13.9% from the current price of HKD 2.23 [2][8]. Core Views - The company's Q3 earnings were impacted by weak wind power generation, resulting in a 46% year-on-year decline in profit to RMB 110 million. The total profit for the first three quarters decreased by 17% year-on-year to RMB 1.87 billion, reaching 77% of the annual forecast [1][2]. - The total power generation in Q3 saw a year-on-year decline of 1.6%, with wind power generation decreasing by 4.8% and photovoltaic generation increasing by 33.1%. The weak earnings were primarily due to lower wind speeds this year [1][2]. - The company's net debt-to-equity ratio improved to 133% in the first three quarters, down from 150% at the end of 2023, with expectations for a further decline to 143% by the end of 2024 [2][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q3 total revenue slightly decreased by 1% year-on-year to RMB 2.46 billion, while gross profit fell by 24.5% to RMB 520 million, leading to a gross margin drop of 17 percentage points to 21% [1][4]. - The company's net profit for Q3 was RMB 161 million, down 45.6% year-on-year, and the nine-month net profit was RMB 1.87 billion, a decrease of 17% [4][5]. Capacity and Generation Forecast - The report maintains forecasts for new wind and solar installations at 1.8 GW, 2.1 GW, and 2.5 GW for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [2][5]. - The expected total installed capacity by the end of 2024 is projected to be 15,418 MW, with wind power capacity at 12,981 MW and solar capacity at 2,438 MW [5]. Valuation - The current valuation is approximately 7 times the 2025 earnings per share, slightly above the reasonable level, with the report indicating that valuation improvements are outpacing earnings recovery [2][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for BYD Company Limited (1211 HK) with a target price of HKD 379.22, indicating a potential upside of 28.5% from the current closing price of HKD 295.00 [1][7]. Core Insights - BYD's automotive gross margin exceeded expectations in Q3 2024, driven by improved margins in the automotive business and a decline in lithium carbonate prices. The company's net profit for Q3 2024 reached RMB 11.6 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 11.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 28.1% [1][2]. - The report highlights that the increase in operating expenses (selling, administrative, and R&D) in Q3 2024 was significant, with respective increases of 27.8%, 20.1%, and 52.0%, attributed to higher spending on premium models and smart technology [1][2]. - The report anticipates continued sales growth in Q4 2024, projecting quarterly sales to rise to 1.3 to 1.5 million units, supported by the ongoing rollout of the DMI 5.0 model [2]. Financial Summary - Revenue for BYD is projected to grow from RMB 602.3 billion in 2023 to RMB 764.8 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 27.0% [3][8]. - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 30.0 billion in 2023 to RMB 41.1 billion in 2024, with a significant year-on-year growth of 36.9% [3][8]. - The report also notes an upward revision of profit forecasts for 2024-2026 by 14%, 19.4%, and 23.3% respectively, reflecting higher sales expectations and contributions from premium models and overseas markets [2][3].