Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of the company to "Buy" [3][8]. Core Insights - The company's core earnings for the first half of 2024 decreased by 16.6% year-on-year to 3.26 billion RMB, which aligns with expectations. Excluding LNG trading profits, domestic core earnings increased by 9.5% to 3.08 billion RMB [2][3]. - The report highlights significant growth in the company's energy and smart home segments, with respective gross profits increasing by 17% and 23% year-on-year [2]. - The company is expected to return to a growth trajectory in 2025 and 2026, with projected core earnings growth of 10.6% and 10.0% respectively [3]. Financial Overview - The company’s revenue for 2024 is projected to be 117.5 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 3.2% [3][11]. - Net profit for 2024 is expected to be 6.85 billion RMB, reflecting a slight decrease of 9.8% compared to the previous year [3][11]. - The report anticipates a recovery in gross margins, with the gas retail gross margin expected to improve to 0.54 RMB per cubic meter in 2024 [2][3]. Segment Performance - The energy segment is projected to achieve a sales growth of 20-30% in 2024, while the smart home segment is expected to see gross profit growth of 20-30% [5][6]. - Retail gas sales are expected to increase by over 5% in 2024, with gross profit from retail gas sales anticipated to grow by over 10% [5][6]. Valuation Metrics - The target price for the company has been raised to 65.10 HKD, representing a potential upside of 21.7% from the current price of 53.50 HKD [3][8]. - The report uses a valuation standard of 9 times the projected earnings for 2025 [3].

交银国际研究 财务模型更新 互联网 2024 年 8 月 26 日 收盘价 目标价 潜在涨幅 港元 10.88 港元 8.50↓ -21.9% 东方甄选 (1797 HK) 自营品 GMV 占比 4 成，回归正常经营后自营品利润率将有所恢复 东方甄选披露 2024 财年业绩，自营品 GMV 占比达到 40%，未来回归正常商业 运营状态，自营品毛利率将有所恢复，公司亦将加强主播团队建设和提升品 牌影响力，并寻求线下和新东方资源协同。考虑与辉同行出售及缩减品牌日 活动的影响，我们下调 2025 财年公司 GMV/收入/利润预测 43%/19%/33%，将 估值切换至2025财年，目标价从13.4港元下调至8.5港元，对应15倍市盈率， 公司仍处于调整阶段，维持中性。 2024 财年公司自营品及直播电商总 GMV/收入达到 143 亿元/65.3 亿元（人 民币，下同），其中自营品 GMV 57 亿元，占总 GMV 比例为 40%，2023 财年为约 30%。截至 2024 财年，公司推出 488 款 SKU 的自营产品（2023 财年为 120 款）。 多平台及矩阵账号战略下，东方甄选自营品抖音账号月度 GMV ...

交银国际研究 财务模型更新 互联网 2024 年 8 月 26 日 收盘价 目标价 潜在涨幅 港元 17.36 港元 24.00 +38.2% 途虎 (9690 HK) 2024 年中期业绩符合预期，供应链能力提升下利润率持续提升 我们微调了途虎（9690 HK）的收入和盈利预测，预计 2024 年收入同比增 8% 至 147 亿元（人民币，下同），调整后净利润 7.3 亿元，对应净利率 5%。我 们认为消费者追求性价比造成的客单价下降仍将短期对收入增长造成压力， 但利润率提升趋势不变，公司将继续推进工厂店拓展，优化产品结构，提升 高利润率的专供和自控产品占比（目前约 70%），并深入与上游合作以提升 供应链议价能力。维持目标价 24 港元和买入评级。 2024 年上半年收入 71 亿元，同比增 9.3%。毛利率同比提升 1.7 个百分点 至 26%，得益于利润率较高的专供和自控产品及保养服务收入贡献增加及 供应链议价能力提升。运营费率同比降0.9个百分点，调整后净利润3.6亿 元，同比增 67%，对应净利率 5%。 业绩要点：1）开店布局稳步推进，截至 6 月 30 日途虎工场店共6311 家， 相较202 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The chemical sector shows signs of recovery, while clean energy growth exceeds expectations. The company's core profit for the first half of 2024 decreased by 3.5% year-on-year to 600 million RMB. The clean energy segment continued its strong growth from Q1, with overseas revenue increasing by 72% year-on-year, driven by offshore products. Hydrogen energy product revenue rose by 74% to 170 million RMB. However, the chemical and liquid food segments underperformed, with the chemical sector's gross profit declining by 63% due to low industry demand [1][2] - The second half of 2024 is expected to see a slight rebound in the chemical sector, with continued strong growth in clean energy. Despite weak performance in the first half, the likelihood of a bottoming out is high, especially in the chemical sector, which saw a 32% quarter-on-quarter revenue increase in Q2. New orders for standard containers have also rebounded significantly [1][2] - The company expects the liquid food segment to achieve over 10% revenue growth and over 20% gross profit growth year-on-year in 2024. The total gross profit for the chemical and liquid food segments in the second half of the year is estimated to be 810 million RMB, with a year-on-year decline narrowing to 4% [1][2] Financial Summary - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 19,602 million RMB in 2022 to 37,267 million RMB in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11% from 2024 to 2026. Net profit is expected to increase from 1,055 million RMB in 2022 to 1,604 million RMB in 2026, with a recovery to double-digit growth in 2025 [5][11] - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is 0.64 RMB, with a projected P/E ratio of 9.1 times. The report adjusts the target price to 8.45 HKD, reflecting a 31.8% potential upside from the current price of 6.41 HKD [2][5]

| --- | --- | |-------------------------|------------------------------| | 交银国际研究 \n宏观策略 | | | | | | 中国宏观 | 2024 年 8 月 16 日 | | | | 社零有回暖，内需仍待巩固—中国 7 月经济数据点评 中国 7 月规模以上工业增加值同比 5.1%，预期 5.2%，上月为 5.3%；环比 0.35%，前值 0.42%。7 月社零同比 2.7%，预期 2.6%，上月为 2.0%；环比 0.35%，前值-0.12%。1-7 月固定资产投资同比 3.6%，预期 3.9%，前值 3.9%。1- 7 月，房地产开发投资同比-10.2%；其中，住宅投资同比-10.6%。 7 月经济数据延续了过去几个月的运行趋势，即生产端整体偏强，受到出口企 业抢出口的推动，电子、运输设备等制造业维持较高的景气度，而需求端，如 耐用品等消费政策刺激仍有提效空间。 7 月中共中央政治局会议中，政府强调了要以提振消费为重点扩大国内需求， 经济政策着力点要更多转向惠民生、促消费，预计在 1500 亿元左右超长期特 别国债支持地方实施消 ...

交银国际研究 宏观策略 2024 年 8 月 15 日 全球宏观 整体放缓，但结构有反弹—美国 7 月 CPI 点评 美国2024年7月CPI同比增2.9%，低于市场预期以及上月的3.0%，这也是2021 年3月以来的最低水平；7月CPI环比增0.2%，持平预期，但高于上月的-0.1%； 7 月核心 CPI 同比回落至 3.2%，持平预期，并低于上月 3.3%，核心通胀连续 4 个月放缓；核心 CPI 环比 0.2%，与预期一致，但高于上月 0.1%。 蔡瑞, CFA Carl.Cai@bocomgroup.com (852) 3766 1808 李少金 Evan.Li@bocomgroup.com (852) 3766 1849 能源价格回升。能源价格本月全面回升，此前两月环比大幅下跌的汽油价 格环比回升，而电力价格环比亦由负转正。国际油价自 5 月以来整体呈震 荡走势，意味着后续能源分项单月波动可能仍较大。与此同时，地缘局势 仍较为紧张，中东局势可能仍对能源价格形成扰动，并可能成为推高通胀 的一大不确定性因素。 核心商品延续通缩，继续发挥去通胀"压舱石"的作用。核心商品持续通 缩，依然是去通胀的主要推手。 ...

交银国际研究 财务模型更新 燃气 2024 年 8 月 15 日 收盘价 目标价 潜在涨幅 港元 55.05 港元 64.10↓ +16.4% 新奧能源 (2688 HK) 预期上半年盈利仍受 LNG 贸易及新增驳接拖累 我们调整了新奥能源 （2688 HK） 的盈利预测及估值。我们认为公司上半年盈 利仍同比下跌约 16%，考虑到新增接驳业务仍有待明确的见底讯号，以及零 售气增量的稳定，我们维持中性评级，下调目标价至 64.1 港元。 预期上半年核心盈利同比下跌约 16%。我们估计新奥 2024 年上半年核心 盈利同比下跌 15.6%至 33 亿元（人民币，下同），拖累盈利的主要原因 是：1）接驳工程毛利同比下跌 29%，主因是居民接驳量预期同比下跌约 10%至 83 万户；2）燃气批发因 LNG 贸易利润进一步减少，分部毛利同比 下跌 59%至 2.7 亿元。期内，我们预期零售气量同比上升约 5%，售气毛差 从去年同期每方气 0.46 元改善至 0.49 元，带动零售气分部毛利同比上升 20%。因此，公司上半年整体毛利仍有约 2%的同比增长。 观察中期业绩能否带动估值修复。基于我们对下半年新增接驳量及智家业 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Biologic Products (1177 HK) with a target price of HKD 4.80, indicating a potential upside of 62.8% from the current closing price of HKD 2.95 [1][2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the company's performance in the first half of 2024 met expectations, with revenue and adjusted net profit growing by 11% and 14% respectively. The growth is driven by rapid uptake of new products and biosimilars, alongside cost reduction efforts that are expected to enhance profit margins [1][2]. - The company is projected to return to double-digit revenue growth over the next three years, with innovative drugs expected to account for 50% of revenue by 2026 [1][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 1H24, revenue and adjusted net profit increased by 11% and 14%, respectively, with highlights including a 15% rise in innovative drug revenue, which now constitutes 39% of total revenue. The generics segment also showed positive growth at 9% [1][3]. - Cost reduction measures have led to a 0.3 percentage point increase in gross margin, with sales and management expense ratios decreasing by 0.5 percentage points. The workforce was reduced by 5.3%, yet productivity improved by 17% [1][3]. Future Projections - The report projects revenue growth to rebound to double digits over the next three years, with innovative drugs expected to grow at a high double-digit rate and generics returning to positive growth [1][3]. - The company plans to launch at least six new products by 2025, which is anticipated to drive revenue growth [1][3]. Valuation - The report adjusts the profit forecasts for 2024-2026 down by 3-5% to RMB 30 billion, RMB 36 billion, and RMB 40 billion, respectively. The DCF valuation model's starting year has been rolled forward to 2025, maintaining the target price of HKD 4.80 [1][3].

交银国际研究 公司更新 金融科技 2024 年 8 月 15 日 收盘价 目标价 潜在涨幅 美元 21.11 美元 27.50↑ +30.3% 奇富科技 (QFIN US) 2 季度盈利增长超预期，3 季度指引强劲 盈利增长强劲。2024 年 2 季度净收入同比+6.3%/环比持平，增长主要来自 表内贷款和推介服务。Non-GAAP 净利润同比+23.3%/环比+17.3%，超市场 预期 25%，主要来自拨备费用下降（拨备回拨），以及营销、管理费用下 降。公司指引 3 季度 Non-GAAP 净利润 15.5-16.5 亿元（人民币，下同）， 对应增速 30-40%之间。 2 季度促成贷款降幅扩大，轻资产模式占比提升，下半年促成贷款增速有 望加快。2 季度促成贷款规模同比下降 23%，轻资产占比 64.9%，环比提 升 3.9 个百分点，ICE 模式保持高速增长；贷款余额同比下降 14.5%，轻资 产占比 65.8%，环比提升 2.5 个百分点。在信贷需求企稳、风险指标持续 改善的基础上，公司下半年将增加规模获客，提升放款量增速。 风险指标改善。90天逾期率环比略升5个基点至3.4%，主要由于分母端贷 款余额 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price adjusted to HKD 1.01, reflecting a potential upside of 59.5% from the current price of HKD 0.63 [2][5]. Core Insights - The company experienced a 10.2% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first half of 2024, despite an 8.9% decline in sales revenue to RMB 9.983 billion. This was attributed to effective discount management, which improved gross and operating profit margins [1][2]. - The company has initiated a special dividend of HKD 0.02 per share, alongside a regular interim dividend of HKD 0.02 per share, resulting in a total payout ratio of 63% [1][2]. - High-line city foot traffic has been under pressure, leading to expectations that the revenue performance in the second half of the year will mirror that of the first half [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of 2024, the company reported a sales revenue decline of 8.9% to RMB 9.983 billion, while net profit rose by 10.2% to RMB 335 million, with profit margins improving [1][6]. - The company’s gross margin increased by 0.7 percentage points to 34.2%, and operating margin improved by 0.5 percentage points to 4.8% [1][6]. Market Conditions - Foot traffic in high-line cities fell by over 30%, while lower-tier cities showed more stable performance. The same-store sales declined by approximately 16.4% in the first half of 2024 [1][2]. - The company is focusing on improving inventory management and sales efficiency, particularly in lower-tier cities, to stabilize profits [1][2]. Strategic Initiatives - The company has implemented strict discount controls, resulting in a low single-digit improvement in overall discount rates, which is expected to help maintain gross margins in the second half of the year [1][2]. - The company plans to diversify its B2C channels, particularly through platforms like WeChat and Douyin, which currently contribute 15.1% to offline sales [1][2].