收盘价 目标价 潜在涨幅 美元 82.25 美元 113.00↓ +37.4% 网易 (NTES US) 2024 年 2 季度收入及利润较市场预期低，但游戏表现符合我们的预测。2 季度收入为 255 亿元（人民币，下同），同比增 6%，其中游戏及增值服 务/有道/云音乐/ 创新及其他收入分别同比+7%/10%/+5%/+0%。调整后净利 润为 78 亿元，同比下降 13%，主要因非运营相关受益变动，调整后运营 利润同比增 18%。游戏及增值服务/有道/云音乐及其他业务毛利润率均保 持同比提升的趋势，其中游戏及增值服务毛利率同比提升 2.6 个百分点至 70%。 展望及估值：预计 3 季度端游恢复增长，《梦幻》端游调整结束后环比持 稳，《七日世界》和《魔兽》带动收入增长，但手游在高基数下增速放缓 ，整体游戏表现短期承压。公司认为《永劫无间》手游玩家数据令人满意 ，游戏具备长线运营属性，或有长期平稳增长的趋势，但考虑短期流水低 于此前预期，我们下调 2024 年收入/利润 1.7%/1.3%，目标价从 117 美元 /182 港元下调到 113 美元/176 港元，对应 2024 年 18 倍游戏业务市盈率不 ...

交银国际研究 公司更新 | --- | --- | --- | |------------|-------------|----------| | 收盘价 | 目标价 | 潜在涨幅 | | 港元 92.85 | 港元 120.00 | +29.2% | 云音乐 (9899 HK) 上半年利润超预期，核心音乐会员业务维持稳健 2024 上半年利润超预期。2024 上半年云音乐收入 40.7 亿元（人民币，下 同），同/环比增4%/3%，主要受音乐业务拉动，基本符合我们/市场预期。 剔除版权成本一次性调整影响，毛利率同/环比扩 8/4 个百分点，受益于在 线音乐规模效应、自制增加以及社交收入分成比例收窄。经调整净利润 8.8 亿元，好于市场预期的 6.2 亿元，主要因费用优化好于预期。 音乐业务维持稳健增长，持续聚焦规模扩张及用户体验优化：1）会员订 阅收入同比增25%，公司不再披露MAU、会员等运营数据，但分享将通过 增加差异化内容供给及升级产品/会员功能发力用户和会员规模增长，预 计人均付费（ARPPU）或相对持稳。2）非会员收入同比增 33%，主要受 广告拉动，激励广告开始贡献收入增量。 展望：我们预计 2 ...

Investment Rating - Maintains a **Buy** rating for Simcere Pharmaceutical (2096 HK) with a target price of HKD 10.00, implying a potential upside of 90.9% [1] Core Views - **1H24 Performance**: Adjusted net profit grew by 36% YoY, driven by gross margin recovery (+3.3ppts) and reduced R&D expense ratio (-4.8ppts) [1] - **Revenue Recovery**: Expected 2024-26 revenue CAGR of 14%, supported by stable sales of Xianbixin and rapid market penetration of new products [1] - **New Product Launches**: Key products like Xianbixin (sublingual tablet), Cosela, and Suvaximab are expected to drive growth, with combined peak sales potential exceeding RMB 8.5 billion [1] Financial Performance - **1H24 Revenue**: Declined by 7.9% YoY, with innovative drug revenue down 8.7%, accounting for 70.7% of total revenue [1] - **Gross Margin**: Improved to 78.8% in 2024E, up 0.3ppts from previous forecasts, with further improvement expected to 79.8% by 2026E [4] - **Adjusted Net Profit**: Forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 21% from 2024-26, reaching RMB 1.37 billion by 2026E [1][4] Product Pipeline and Market Potential - **Xianbixin**: Sales expected to stabilize, with sublingual tablet launch expanding treatment scenarios and maintaining a peak sales target of RMB 5.5 billion [1] - **Cosela**: Potential inclusion in NRDL by end of 2024 could drive annual sales to exceed RMB 500 million [1] - **New Launches**: Suvaximab and Daliresib expected to contribute over RMB 3 billion in peak sales within the next 18 months [1] Valuation and Forecasts - **DCF Valuation**: Target price revised to HKD 10.00 based on updated financial forecasts, reflecting a 91% upside potential [1] - **Free Cash Flow**: Expected to grow from RMB 750 million in 2025E to RMB 1.83 billion by 2033E, driven by operational leverage and cost efficiency [5] Industry Comparison - **Biotech Sector**: Simcere Pharmaceutical is part of a broader biotech sector with strong growth potential, as evidenced by similar buy ratings for peers like Legend Biotech (LEGN US) and BeiGene (6160 HK) [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price adjusted from $5.00 to $4.50, indicating a potential upside of 34.3% from the current price of $3.35 [1][4][10]. Core Insights - The company is focusing on high school education and AI subscription services, with hardware revenue expected to recover in Q3 2024. The growth rate for high school business has been revised down from 25-30% to 20-25% for 2024 [1]. - The second quarter of 2024 saw a revenue increase of 9.5% year-on-year to 1.3 billion RMB, with learning services, hardware, and advertising revenues showing varied performance [1]. - The company reported an adjusted net loss of 96 million RMB in Q2 2024, which was better than market expectations [1]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2024 have been slightly adjusted, with an expected overall revenue growth of 12%. Learning services and hardware revenues are projected to decline by 3% and 9% respectively, while advertising revenue is expected to grow by 62% [1][11]. - The company achieved a gross profit margin of 48.3% in 2024, with a slight improvement from previous estimates [3][11]. - The adjusted net profit margin is projected to be -0.4% for 2024, indicating ongoing challenges but potential for recovery in subsequent years [3][11]. Revenue Breakdown - Learning services revenue is expected to be 3.05 billion RMB in 2024, down from previous estimates [3]. - Hardware revenue is projected to recover to 832 million RMB in 2024, with a growth rate of 11% [3]. - Advertising revenue is forecasted to reach 2.16 billion RMB, reflecting a growth rate of 7.7% [3]. Market Position - The company has a market capitalization of approximately $104.62 million, with a 52-week high of $4.65 and a low of $3.05 [4][10]. - The company has maintained a strong retention rate of over 70% for its digital content services, indicating robust customer loyalty [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral rating for WuXi Biologics (2269 HK) with a target price of HKD 12.30, indicating a potential upside of 18.3% from the current closing price of HKD 10.40 [1][2][6]. Core Views - The company's 1H24 performance met expectations, with revenue growth of 1.0% year-on-year, excluding COVID-related revenue, which reflects a growth of 7.7%. However, the adjusted net profit decreased by 20.7% due to high base effects from 1H23 and increased SG&A expenses [1][2]. - The report highlights that the short-term uncertainties in the industry and external environment remain significant risks, leading to a downward revision of the earnings forecast for 2024-2026 by 4-19% [1][2]. - The company expects to receive approximately RMB 500 million in large payments in 2H24, which is anticipated to improve operational efficiency and revenue growth in the latter half of the year [1][2]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024E are set at RMB 17,989 million, with a decrease of 0.8% from previous estimates. For 2025E and 2026E, revenues are projected at RMB 20,710 million and RMB 23,701 million, reflecting decreases of 9.0% and 8.3% respectively [2][7]. - The adjusted net profit for 2024E is forecasted at RMB 5,019 million, down 3.6% from prior estimates, with further declines of 18.6% and 17.5% for 2025E and 2026E [2][7]. - The gross profit margin is expected to decline to 39.1% in 2024E, down from 41.6% in the previous forecast, indicating a decrease of 2.5 percentage points [2][7]. Order and Capacity Utilization - In 1H24, the company secured 61 new orders, with a strong momentum in late-stage projects, including 9 "winning molecule" projects. The company anticipates signing additional contracts by the end of the year [1][2]. - The report notes that the capacity utilization rate is expected to improve steadily, particularly with the ramp-up of production in Ireland, which is projected to break even by 1H25 and achieve an 80% utilization rate by 2026 [1][2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Weichai Power (2338 HK) with a target price of HKD 18.60, indicating a potential upside of 52.2% from the current price of HKD 12.22 [1][2][6]. Core Insights - Weichai Power's performance in the first half of 2024 showed revenue of RMB 112.49 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.0%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 5.903 billion, up 51.4% year-on-year. The growth in net profit outpaced revenue growth due to improved gross margins and effective cost control [1][4]. - The company experienced a significant increase in the sales of natural gas heavy-duty truck engines, with a year-on-year growth of 92.5%, capturing a market share of 63.1% in this segment. This trend is expected to continue due to stricter environmental regulations and increased subsidies for vehicle replacements [1][2]. - The report highlights that Weichai Power's diversified business model and international expansion contribute to a high certainty of continued profitability improvement in the second half of 2024 [2][4]. Financial Overview - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, Weichai Power is projected to achieve revenue of RMB 235.46 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.1%. The net profit is expected to reach RMB 11.84 billion, with a significant increase in earnings per share to RMB 1.38 [4][7]. - The company's gross margin improved to 21.7%, an increase of 3 percentage points year-on-year, while the combined sales, management, and R&D expenses accounted for 13.8% of revenue, remaining stable compared to the previous year [1][4]. - The interim cash dividend payout ratio increased to 55%, up from 50.6% in 2023, reflecting the company's strong cash flow position [1][4]. Market Position - Weichai Power holds a leading position in the heavy-duty truck engine market, with a market share of 40.5%, bolstered by its dominance in the natural gas engine segment [1][2]. - The report notes that the stock price has adjusted following the resignation of the chairman, presenting an attractive valuation opportunity for investors [2][6].

交银国际研究 公司更新 互联网 2024 年 8 月 23 日 收盘价 目标价 潜在涨幅 美元 2.60 美元 3.80↓ +46.2% 爱奇艺 (IQ US) 会员收入短期持续承压，下调全年收入及利润预期 2 季度业绩符合预期：爱奇艺 2024 年 2 季度总收入为 74 亿元（人民币， 下同），符合我们/市场预期，同/环比降 5%/ 6%，主要因去年同期高基 数，以及部分重点内容的会员及招商拉动效果较弱。调整后净利润 2.5 亿 元，与我们预期一致，对应调整后净利率 3%，同/环比-4.3/7.3 个百分点。 会员收入短期持续承压，效果广告维持增长。2 季度会员收入同比降 9% 至 45 亿元，符合预期，ARM（单会员月均付费）维持同比增长趋势。海 外会员收入维持同环比增长，维持华语内容供给+强化本地内容布局并进 战略。2 季度，广告收入 15 亿元，同比降 2%，效果广告维持同比增长。 展望：3 季度，尽管重点剧集播放数据已呈现改善趋势（据云合数据，7 月爱奇艺剧集播放份额重回第一），但考虑对会员拉动或有滞后，我们预 计3季度会员收入同比-13%，4季度随新内容陆续上线会员有望触底回升。 预计广告收入同 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for China Power (2380 HK) with a target price of HKD 4.56, implying a potential upside of 27.4% from the current price of HKD 3.58 [1][2] Core Views - **Strong H2 Profit Growth**: The company is expected to deliver robust profit growth in the second half of the year, driven by significant improvements in the hydro power segment and a special dividend announcement [1] - **Hydro Power Recovery**: Hydro power operating profit surged 5.3x YoY to RMB 1.35 billion in H1 2024, exceeding expectations by 25%, due to improved water conditions [1] - **Wind and Solar Growth**: Despite a decline in utilization hours for wind (-8%) and solar (-4%) in H1, operating profits for wind and solar increased by 35% and 63% respectively, supported by new capacity additions [1] - **Coal Power Margin Expansion**: The coal power segment saw a 44% YoY increase in operating profit, driven by a higher spark spread (RMB 0.118/kWh vs. RMB 0.105/kWh in H1 2023) due to lower coal costs [1] - **Special Dividend**: A special dividend of RMB 0.05 per share was announced to celebrate the company's 20th anniversary of listing in Hong Kong [1] Financial Performance and Forecasts - **H1 2024 Earnings**: Net profit rose 53% YoY to RMB 2.57 billion, slightly above expectations by 2% [1] - **2024/25 Profit Growth**: Profit growth is forecasted at 69% and 39% for 2024 and 2025 respectively, despite downward revisions of 2.5% and 6.0% due to lower wind and solar utilization hours [2] - **Dividend Yield**: The company's dividend yield for 2024/25 is expected to exceed 7%, with a payout ratio of 65% or higher, including the special dividend [2] Capacity and Generation Outlook - **Hydro Power**: Hydro utilization hours are expected to remain at historically high levels, with a 10% upward revision in hydro generation forecast for 2024, leading to a 57% YoY increase in hydro power output [1] - **Wind and Solar**: The company maintains its 2024 target of adding 3GW of wind and 4GW of solar capacity, despite a 5% and 2% downward revision in wind and solar generation forecasts due to lower wind speeds and solar irradiance [1] - **Total Capacity**: By 2026, the company's total installed capacity is projected to reach 67,019 MW, with renewable energy accounting for 83.5% of the total [7] Valuation - **Sum-of-the-Parts Valuation**: The target price of HKD 4.56 is derived from a sum-of-the-parts valuation, with hydro, wind, and solar segments valued at 0.75x, 8.5x, and 8.5x 2025E P/B and P/E multiples respectively [8] Industry Comparison - **Peer Comparison**: Among covered companies in the renewable energy sector, China Power (2380 HK) has a 27.4% potential upside, compared to peers like Huadian Power (836 HK) with 23.5% and Longyuan Power (916 HK) with 37.2% [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China National Heavy Duty Truck Group Co., Ltd. (3808 HK) with a target price of HKD 26.49, indicating a potential upside of 28.9% from the current closing price of HKD 20.55 [2][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a robust performance in the first half of 2024, with revenue increasing by 18.0% year-on-year to RMB 4.88 billion and net profit rising by 39.8% to RMB 3.29 billion, aligning with market expectations [2]. - The market share of China National Heavy Duty Truck in the heavy truck segment improved significantly, reaching 27.6%, up 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, driven by strong demand for natural gas heavy trucks [2][5]. - The company has initiated a mid-term dividend plan, distributing RMB 0.66 per share, with a payout ratio of 55%, an increase from previous years [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected to reach RMB 101.7 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 19.0% [3][7]. - Net profit is expected to grow to RMB 6.44 billion in 2024, reflecting a 21.0% increase compared to 2023 [3][7]. - The gross margin is forecasted to stabilize around 16.9% in 2024, with operating profit margin improving to 7.9% [7]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is positioned to benefit from the heavy truck replacement demand, particularly in the natural gas segment, which saw a remarkable 273% increase in sales year-on-year [2][5]. - The report emphasizes the attractiveness of the company's valuation and the potential for further dividend increases in the future [2][3].

Investment Rating - The report downgrades the investment rating of CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (1093 HK) to **Neutral** from the previous rating, citing increased short-term performance uncertainty due to the impact of centralized procurement [1][2] Core Views - The 2Q24 performance was significantly impacted by centralized procurement, with revenue and net profit declining by 9.0% and 8.5% YoY respectively [1] - The sales of key new products, such as Irinotecan Liposome and Mingfule, fell short of expectations due to slower market expansion under regulatory scrutiny [1] - The company expects the negative impact of centralized procurement to persist until 2025, particularly affecting major products like Jinyouli and Duomeisu [1] - CSPC plans to focus on extending the DOT (Duration of Therapy) for Enbipu in both hospital and retail markets, with current retail sales accounting for less than 10% of total sales [1] - The company aims to have 10 NDAs (New Drug Applications) approved between 2H24 and 2025, including 2 in the US, to mitigate the impact of centralized procurement [1] Financial Performance - 1H24 revenue and net profit grew by 1.3% and 1.8% YoY, respectively, but 2Q24 saw a decline of 9.0% and 8.5% YoY [1] - The sales expense ratio improved significantly, dropping by 5.2 percentage points to 24.9% in 2Q24 due to better cost control and optimized sales team allocation [1] - R&D expenses increased by 5.9% in 2Q24 and 10.3% in 1H24, with ongoing Phase III studies for new drugs and indications [1] - The company forecasts stable or slightly lower sales expenses for 2024, with R&D expenses expected to grow by over 10% annually from 2024 to 2025 [1] Valuation and Forecast - The DCF target price is revised downward to HKD 6.30, representing a 12.0x 2025 P/E ratio, in line with the three-year historical average [2] - The 2024-2026 net profit forecasts are reduced by 11-29%, reflecting the ongoing impact of centralized procurement [2] - Revenue growth is expected to slow, with 2024E revenue projected at RMB 31,964 million, a 1.6% YoY increase, but down 10.0% from previous forecasts [5] - Gross margin remains stable at around 72.2% for 2024E, with net margin expected to decline slightly to 19.2% [5] Strategic Focus - CSPC is focusing on expanding the market penetration of Enbipu in both hospital and retail settings, with current DOT at around 20 days and retail sales accounting for less than 10% [1] - The company is preparing for the year-end national drug price negotiations, with six products, including RANKL, PD-1, and Irinotecan Liposome, expected to be included [1] - CSPC plans to push for the approval of 10 NDAs between 2H24 and 2025, including 2 in the US, to offset the impact of centralized procurement [1]