Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price adjusted to HKD 1.01, reflecting a potential upside of 59.5% from the current price of HKD 0.63 [2][5]. Core Insights - The company experienced a 10.2% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first half of 2024, despite an 8.9% decline in sales revenue to RMB 9.983 billion. This was attributed to effective discount management, which improved gross and operating profit margins [1][2]. - The company has initiated a special dividend of HKD 0.02 per share, alongside a regular interim dividend of HKD 0.02 per share, resulting in a total payout ratio of 63% [1][2]. - High-line city foot traffic has been under pressure, leading to expectations that the revenue performance in the second half of the year will mirror that of the first half [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of 2024, the company reported a sales revenue decline of 8.9% to RMB 9.983 billion, while net profit rose by 10.2% to RMB 335 million, with profit margins improving [1][6]. - The company’s gross margin increased by 0.7 percentage points to 34.2%, and operating margin improved by 0.5 percentage points to 4.8% [1][6]. Market Conditions - Foot traffic in high-line cities fell by over 30%, while lower-tier cities showed more stable performance. The same-store sales declined by approximately 16.4% in the first half of 2024 [1][2]. - The company is focusing on improving inventory management and sales efficiency, particularly in lower-tier cities, to stabilize profits [1][2]. Strategic Initiatives - The company has implemented strict discount controls, resulting in a low single-digit improvement in overall discount rates, which is expected to help maintain gross margins in the second half of the year [1][2]. - The company plans to diversify its B2C channels, particularly through platforms like WeChat and Douyin, which currently contribute 15.1% to offline sales [1][2].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings (700 HK) with a target price of 486.00 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 30.0% from the current price of 373.80 HKD [5][6]. Core Insights - Tencent's revenue is projected to grow from 609.02 billion RMB in 2023 to 664.22 billion RMB in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 9.1% [4][7]. - The financial technology and enterprise services segment is expected to maintain a steady growth trajectory, contributing significantly to overall revenue [2][4]. - The report highlights a strong performance in the value-added services and social networks segments, with expected revenues of 85.03 billion RMB and 34.24 billion RMB respectively for Q3 2024 [4][7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for Tencent is forecasted at 171.55 billion RMB for Q3 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 10.9% [4][7]. - The gross profit margin is expected to improve, with projections indicating a gross profit of 88.43 billion RMB for Q3 2024, reflecting a margin of approximately 51.5% [4][7]. User Metrics - The report notes a steady increase in active users across platforms, with WeChat MAU reaching 1.36 billion and QQ MAU at 571 million [1][2]. - Paid subscription users for video, music, and reading services are also on the rise, indicating a growing monetization potential [1][2]. Segment Analysis - The financial technology and enterprise services segment is projected to generate revenues of 55.27 billion RMB in Q3 2024, maintaining a gross margin of around 46.3% [2][4]. - The online advertising segment is expected to contribute 30.57 billion RMB in revenue for Q3 2024, with a gross margin of approximately 56.2% [4][7]. Future Projections - The report anticipates continued growth in net profit, with projections of 177.14 billion RMB for 2024, up from 115.22 billion RMB in 2023 [4][7]. - Non-GAAP operating profit is expected to reach 235.74 billion RMB in 2024, indicating a robust operational performance [4][7].

交银国际研究 公司更新 互联网 2024 年 8 月 14 日 收盘价 目标价 潜在涨幅 美元 11.12 美元 14.00↓ +25.9% 腾讯音乐 (TME US) 2 季度利润超预期；全年音乐会员净增下调，聚焦 SVIP 运营提升 ARPPU 2024 年 2 季度利润超预期。腾讯音乐 2 季度收入为 72 亿元（人民币，下 同），基本符合我们和 Visible Alpha 一致预期，同比降 2%，仍受社交娱乐 业务调整影响。毛利率 42%，同/环比优化 8/1 个百分点，持续受益于订阅 及广告收入增长、自制内容增加。经调整归母净利润 18.7 亿元（同比增 22%），高于市场预期的 17.9 亿元，经调整净利率 26%，同环比提升 5/1 个百分点，受益于毛利率优化及管理费用优化，部分被税率提升所抵消。 在线音乐基本符合预期。在线音乐收入 54 亿元，同比增 28%，收入占比 环比提升 2 个百分点至 76%。音乐订阅维持增势，同比增 29%。音乐会员 1.17 亿，环比净增 350 万，略低于 Visible Alpha 一致预期的 366 万，对应 付费率 20.5%，同/环比+3.8/0.9 个 ...

交银国际研究 行业更新 2024 年 8 月 12 日 电池行业月报 海外放缓扩产步调；中国电池产销保持增长，但库存压力犹存 中国动力电池产销保持增长，但1-7 月产装率达2.1。根据中国汽车动力电 池产业创新联盟公众号，产量：7月，我国电池总产量为91.8 GWh，同比/ 环比分别+33.1%/+8.6%：1-7 月，累计产量为 521.8 GWh，同比+36.2%：销 量：7 月，我国电池销量为 86.3 GWh，同比/环比分别+49.9%/-6.4%。1-7 月，电池累计销量为 488.9 GWh，同比+41.9%。其中，动力电池当月销量 为 62.2 GWh，同比+19.0%；1-7 月累计销量为 380.3 GWh，同比+25.3%。 装车量：7 月，我国动力电池装车量 41.6 GWh，同比/环比分别+29.0%/- 2.9%。1-7 月，我国动力电池累计装车量 244.9 GWh，同比+32.8%。整体来 看，2024 年 1-7 月我国动力电池产装率达 2.13，高于 2022/2023 年的 1.84/1.91，动力电池库存压力仍然较大。 磷酸铁锂电池增速强势，7 月全国装车量占比达 72. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, Yuexiu Property (123 HK), with a target price adjusted to HKD 6.60, indicating a potential upside of 48.3% from the current price of HKD 4.45 [1][6]. Core Views - The report anticipates a decline in gross profit margin for the first half of 2024, expected to be between 13% and 14%, which is a critical indicator for the performance of real estate developers [1]. - Contract sales for the first half of 2024 are projected to be RMB 55.4 billion, representing a year-on-year decrease of 33.8%, and only 37.7% of the annual sales target of RMB 147 billion [1]. - The property management business is expected to see revenue growth exceeding 20%, benefiting from previous sales growth and stable deliveries [1]. - Revenue and profit forecasts for 2024 and 2025 have been revised downwards, with core profit estimates reduced by 34% and 35% respectively, primarily due to declining development profit margins and increased sales costs [1]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, the projected revenue is RMB 86.79 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 8.2% [4][7]. - The core profit for 2024 is estimated at RMB 3.27 billion, reflecting a decline of 15.2% compared to the previous year [4][7]. - The report indicates a decrease in gross profit margin from 20.4% in 2022 to an expected 13.5% in 2024 [7]. - The company's net profit for 2024 is projected to be RMB 5.03 billion, with a slight increase to RMB 5.43 billion in 2025 [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is Neutral with a target price of HKD 29.00, indicating a potential upside of 14.4% from the current closing price of HKD 25.35 [1][9]. Core Insights - The company's online business remains stable, and copyright operations have exceeded expectations, with a focus on the incremental contributions from short dramas and derivative products [1]. - In the first half of 2024, the company reported revenue of RMB 4.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 28%, surpassing market expectations of 13% [1]. - Adjusted net profit for the same period was RMB 700 million, reflecting a 16% year-on-year increase, which also exceeded market expectations by 7% [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024 is projected at RMB 7.804 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 11.3% after a decline in 2023 [3][8]. - The adjusted net profit for 2024 is expected to be RMB 1.397 billion, with a corresponding net profit margin of 17% [3][8]. - The company’s core IP operations are anticipated to grow by 34% year-on-year, with revenue adjustments reflecting a strong performance in IP licensing and production [2][8]. Business Segments Overview - Online business revenue slightly decreased by 2% year-on-year, with self-owned channels maintaining a stable user base of 105 million monthly active users and 8.8 million paying users [1][7]. - Copyright operations saw a significant increase of 73% year-on-year, driven by the release of major series and the expansion of core IP licensing [1][7]. - New business segments, including short dramas and derivative products, are expected to contribute positively, with the GMV of IP card games reaching RMB 100 million in the first half of 2024 [1][2]. Valuation - The adjusted net profit forecast for 2024 has been slightly raised by 1% to RMB 1.4 billion, based on a compound annual growth rate of 21% from 2023 to 2025 [2][8]. - The target price is maintained at HKD 29, referencing a price-to-earnings ratio of 20 times for comparable quality content and copyright companies [2][9]. - The company is expected to maintain healthy growth in IP licensing and production, with new revenue streams from short dramas and derivative products gradually emerging [2][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, King’s Ray Bio (1548 HK), with a target price of HKD 28.75, indicating a potential upside of 122.9% from the current closing price of HKD 12.90 [6][7]. Core Insights - The non-cell therapy business of King’s Ray Bio is expected to stabilize and improve starting from the second half of 2024, driven by a recovery in new orders and robust growth in life sciences services [1][2]. - The company has adjusted its revenue and profit forecasts to reflect a more cautious outlook for the non-cell therapy business while being optimistic about the sales potential of Carvykti [2][3]. - The report highlights a significant increase in revenue from the life sciences segment, which grew by 10% year-on-year, and a notable 44% increase in revenue from the industrial enzyme segment [1][2]. Financial Forecast Adjustments - Revenue projections for 2024 have been adjusted to USD 1.230 billion, reflecting a decrease of 2.7% from previous estimates, while 2025 and 2026 projections have been increased by 4.5% and 2.4%, respectively [3]. - The gross profit for 2024 is forecasted at USD 667 million, with a gross margin of 54.2%, which is a decrease from the previous forecast of 55.8% [3]. - The adjusted net profit for 2024 is projected to be a loss of USD 165 million, improving to a profit of USD 65 million in 2025 and USD 190 million in 2026 [3][7]. Business Segment Performance - The life sciences services segment is valued using a P/E method with a target multiple of 15.0x, contributing significantly to the overall valuation of the company [5]. - The CDMO (Contract Development and Manufacturing Organization) business is under pressure in the short term, but new orders for protein/antibody drugs have shown recovery, indicating potential for future growth [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the company's strategic focus on innovation and capacity expansion in driving long-term growth [2][5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price adjusted from HKD 26.00 to HKD 24.00, indicating a potential upside of 50.9% from the current price of HKD 15.90 [1][2][9]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the decline in average transaction value has temporarily disrupted revenue growth, but the trend of profit margin improvement remains intact due to supply chain optimization [1]. - The company is expected to continue expanding its factory store network and optimizing its product structure, aiming to open 1,000 new factory stores throughout the year [1]. - Revenue for the first half of 2024 is projected to grow by 9% year-on-year to RMB 7.1 billion, with adjusted net profit expected to reach RMB 330 million, reflecting a 55% increase [1]. - The report anticipates a revenue increase of 7% year-on-year for 2024, totaling RMB 14.6 billion, with adjusted net profit of RMB 740 million, both down by 7% from previous forecasts due to consumer preference for alternative products affecting average transaction value [1]. Financial Forecast Summary - Revenue projections for 2024E are RMB 14,592 million, down 7% from previous estimates [3]. - Adjusted net profit for 2024E is forecasted at RMB 739 million, also a 7% decrease from prior predictions [3]. - The gross profit margin is expected to improve to 25.61% in 2024E, up 0.3 percentage points from previous estimates [3]. - For 2025E and 2026E, revenues are projected at RMB 16.6 billion and RMB 18.6 billion, respectively, with adjusted net profits of RMB 1.2 billion and RMB 1.6 billion [1][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Legend Biotech (LEGN US) with a target price raised to $76.00, indicating a potential upside of 33.5% from the current price of $56.91 [1][5]. Core Insights - The second quarter of 2024 (2Q24) performance exceeded expectations, leading to an upward revision of the company's financial forecasts and target price. The total revenue for 2Q24 increased by 154% year-over-year to $187 million, with product and licensing revenues of $93 million and $91 million, respectively. The gross margin for product manufacturing surpassed 50% for the first time, reaching 51.4% [1][2]. - The company is expected to achieve breakeven by 2026, with revised revenue and net profit forecasts for 2024 set at $630 million and a net loss of $264 million, respectively [1][2][6]. - Sales momentum for Carvykti is strong, with 2Q24 sales growing by 60% year-over-year and 18% quarter-over-quarter to $186 million. The number of hospitals offering Carvykti treatment in the U.S. has increased to 77, with expectations to reach approximately 100 by year-end [1][2]. Financial Forecast Summary - Revenue projections for Legend Biotech have been adjusted as follows: - 2024E: $630 million (previously $600 million, +5.0%) - 2025E: $1,051 million (unchanged) - 2026E: $1,382 million (unchanged) [2][6]. - Gross profit estimates have also been revised: - 2024E: $360 million (previously $336 million, +7.3%) - 2025E: $604 million (previously $576 million, +5.0%) - 2026E: $849 million (unchanged) [2][6]. - The gross margin is expected to improve to 48.0% in 2024, 53.0% in 2025, and 60.0% in 2026 [2][6]. Valuation Model - The discounted cash flow (DCF) model indicates a present value of free cash flow at $2,837 million and a terminal value present value of $9,637 million, leading to an enterprise value of $12,475 million. After accounting for net cash of $1,379 million, the equity value is estimated at $13,853 million, resulting in a per-share value of $76.00 [4][6].

Industry Rating - The automotive industry is rated as "Leading" [1] Core Insights - In July, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) rose to 51.1%, and the upcoming new car launch wave in August is expected to boost sales [1][2] - Retail sales of passenger vehicles in July slightly decreased year-on-year, while the market share of domestic brands continued to increase [1] - The retail sales of NEVs reached 878,000 units in July, marking a year-on-year increase of 36.9% [1] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In July, retail sales of passenger vehicles totaled 1.72 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 2.8% [1] - Cumulative retail sales from January to July reached 11.56 million units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.3% [1] - Domestic brands sold 1.06 million units in July, with a year-on-year increase of 13% and a market share increase of 8.5 percentage points to 61.8% [1] New Energy Vehicle Insights - The penetration rate of NEVs in July was 51.1%, with retail sales of 878,000 units, a month-on-month increase of 2.8% [1] - Cumulative NEV sales from January to July reached 4.988 million units, a year-on-year increase of 33.7% [1] - In July, domestic brands achieved a NEV penetration rate of 73.9%, while luxury and joint venture brands had rates of 27% and 8.3%, respectively [1] Export Performance - In July, total passenger vehicle exports reached 376,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 20% [1] - NEV exports increased by 18.2% month-on-month to 92,000 units, accounting for 24.5% of total passenger vehicle exports [1] - Cumulative exports from January to July reached 2.619 million units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 31% [1] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on quality stocks in the passenger vehicle sector, including BYD (1211 HK), Li Auto (2015 HK), and NIO (9866 HK) [2]