Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting total returns over the next 12 months to exceed the relevant industry [4]. Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the positive sentiment towards artificial intelligence (AI) is likely to continue, with the company's valuation still at historical lows. It predicts strong growth in the data center business for 2024, with quarter-on-quarter increases expected [1]. - There are mixed opinions among clients regarding the demand for AI acceleration chips in 2024, with some expressing skepticism about sustainability, while others agree on strong demand but lack visibility for 2025. Optimistic forecasts suggest a potential 20% upside in Non-GAAP EPS for the year [2]. - The report anticipates that the data center business will continue to grow by over 20% year-on-year, driven by a recovery in chip demand in mainland China and advancements in product technology [8]. Summary by Sections Market Sentiment and Demand - The report highlights that the market's enthusiasm for AI will not diminish, with a focus on the entire hardware supply chain, not just the company itself. Recent market reactions indicate that the demand for AI-related hardware may be underestimated [9]. Product Development and Future Outlook - The company is expected to launch new products, such as H200 and B200, in the second and fourth quarters of this year, which may further enhance demand for computing power. The report notes that the demand for AI capabilities is becoming increasingly diverse and persistent [8]. Client Feedback and Perspectives - Client feedback is categorized into three main views regarding 2024 and 2025 chip demand, ranging from skepticism to strong agreement on growth, with a notable focus on the supply chain's readiness for new products [2].

交银国际研究 宏观策略 稳步开局，回升向好—中国 1-2 月经济数据点评 社零延续稳复苏、地产产业链消费回暖。尽管春节氛围火热，旅游出行等 数据显著回升，但1-2月社零消费数据依然延续稳复苏节奏。1-2月社零同 比由去年12月单月7.0%进一步放缓至5.5%，但略高于市场预期。结构上， 烟酒、粮油以及日用品同比回升体现出春节消费特征；汽车消费同比亦明 显走强，或主要来自新一轮车企降价促销、以价换量带来的推动。同时， 地产产业链的家具、家电以及建筑材料同比均有明显回温。 广义基建增速仍维持稳健，同比由上月 8.2%升至 9%附近。2023 年增 发国债陆续落地一定程度上对冲了地方政府化债压力，使得基建增速 维持韧性。预计在万亿特殊国债的加持下，基建投资仍有坚实保障。 李少金 Evan.Li@bocomgroup.com (852) 3766 1849 2024 年 3 月 21 日 综合来看，1-2月经济数据取得"开门红"，反映了宏观经济指标仍在积极向好， 且有望为全年完成经济目标打下较好基础。随着后续"三大工程"推进、以及设 备更新、消费品以旧换新，以及降低社会物流成本等积极财政措施在供、需两 端的支持下，结 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for QFIN US with a target price of $23.00, indicating a potential upside of 24.5% from the current price of $18.47 [1][9]. Core Insights - The company is focusing more on growth quality and shareholder returns in 2024, with a net profit of 4.285 billion RMB in 2023, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.5% [1]. - The loan facilitation amount for 2023 grew by 15.4% year-on-year, aligning with the company's guidance, while the annualized net take rate for Q4 was 3.2%, up 0.4 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The proportion of light assets has increased and is expected to continue rising in 2024 due to risk management considerations [1]. - Asset quality remains under pressure, with a 90-day delinquency rate of 2.35% in Q4, but there are signs of improvement since December [1]. - The company has tightened credit standards and is leveraging AI technology to reduce customer acquisition costs and enhance operational efficiency [1]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2023, the company reported a net profit of 4.285 billion RMB, with a projected net profit for Q1 2024 of 11.5-12.0 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 17-22% [1][2]. - Revenue for 2023 was 16.290 billion RMB, with a slight decline of 1.6% year-on-year, but expected to grow by 7.1% in 2024 [4][6]. - The forecast for net profit in 2024 is 4.631 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 8.1% [4][6]. - The company plans to repurchase $350 million worth of shares over the next 12 months, with dividends and buybacks expected to exceed 70% of net profit in 2024 [2]. Key Financial Metrics - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to remain above 20% over the next three years [2]. - The price-to-book ratio for 2024 is estimated at 1.2 times [2]. - The dividend yield is expected to be around 5.5% for 2023, increasing to 7.1% in 2024 [4][6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tencent Music (TME US) is "Buy" with a target price of $13.00, indicating a potential upside of 17.8% from the current price of $11.04 [1][7]. Core Insights - Tencent Music's Q4 2023 performance exceeded expectations, with total revenue of 6.89 billion RMB, a year-on-year decline of 7%, primarily due to adjustments in the social entertainment segment, which saw a 52% decrease [1][2]. - The adjusted net profit for Q4 2023 was 1.7 billion RMB, representing a 12% increase year-on-year, which was higher than both the report's and market's expectations [1][2]. - The online music segment showed strong growth, with revenue of 5.02 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 41%, driven by a 45% increase in music subscription revenue [2][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q4 2023 total revenue was 6.89 billion RMB, down 7% year-on-year, but better than the market expectation of a 10% decline [5]. - Online music revenue reached 5.02 billion RMB, up 41% year-on-year, accounting for 73% of total revenue [2][5]. - The adjusted net profit for Q4 2023 was 1.7 billion RMB, with an adjusted net profit margin of 24% [1][5]. Membership and Revenue Growth - The number of music subscribers reached 107 million, with a net increase of 3.7 million in Q4 2023, resulting in a payment rate of 18.5% [2][5]. - Monthly ARPPU (Average Revenue Per Paying User) increased to 10.7 RMB, reflecting a 20% year-on-year growth [2][5]. - The report forecasts a 37% increase in music subscription revenue for Q1 2024 and a 25% increase for the full year [2][6]. Cost and Profitability - Gross margin improved to 38% in Q4 2023, benefiting from increased subscription and advertising revenues [1][5]. - The report anticipates a further increase in gross margin to 40% in 2024 due to better cost optimization in online music [2][6]. - The adjusted net profit for 2024 is projected to be 6.62 billion RMB, with a corresponding adjusted net profit margin of 23% [8]. Valuation and Market Outlook - The target price for Tencent Music has been raised to $13.00 based on a comparable music and copyright company average P/E ratio of 20x for 2024 [2][8]. - The company continues to see growth potential in music membership over the next two years, supported by scale effects and increased self-produced content [2][6].

交银国际研究 公司更新 互联网 收盘价 目标价 潜在涨幅 2024年3月21日 港元52.25 港元75.00 +43.5% 快手 (1024 HK) 电商/广告增长稳健，利润释放步调好于预期  2023年4季度利润超预期。快手4季度总收入326亿元人民币（下同）， 个股评级 同/环比增15%/17%，与我们/市场预期一致。成本优化好于预期，毛利率 买入 同/环比提升8/1个百分点至53%。经调整净利润44亿元，环比增37%， 对比去年同期4500万元亏损，超我们/市场预期25%/34%。海外变现环比 增30%，带动亏损收窄13%至5.5亿元。 1年股价表现 1024 HK  4季度业绩概览：1）MAU突破7亿，但总用户时长在高基数上同比降3%。 40% MSCI中国指数 2）电商GMV同比增29%，符合我们预期，持续受供给（月均动销商家数 30% 20% 同比+50%）及需求侧（MPU 1.3亿，渗透MAU 18.6%）增长驱动。我们估 10% 算佣金率1.1%，受达人分销抽佣带动同比提升8个基点。泛货架GMV占 0% 比进一步提升至>20%。3）线上营销收入增 21%，活跃广告主同比增 -10% -2 ...

交银国际研究 公司更新 金融科技 收盘价 目标价 潜在涨幅 2024年3月19日 美元4.99 美元6.30↓ +26.3% 信也科技 (FINV US) 国际业务面临挑战，但股东回报较为吸引，维持买入  4 季度盈利低于预期。信也 2023 年归母净利润为 23.41 亿（人民币，下 个股评级 同），同比增长3.3%，低于我们和彭博一致预期2%左右。4季度净收入同 买入 比+7.6%/环比+0.8%，归母净利润为 5.25 亿，同比下降 4.9%/环比下降 7.3%，主要由于受资产质量波动影响，信用成本同比环比均上升。 1年股价表现  2023年促成贷款增速符合指引，2024年增速指引放缓。2023年促成贷款 FINV US 规模为 1943 亿元，同比增长 10.8%，其中內地/国际同比分别增长 9%/ 70% MSCI中国指数 60% 85%。2023年国际业务在促成贷款中占比4%，在收入中占比17%。公司指 50% 40% 引2024年內地促成贷款规模为1957-2050亿元，对应增速5-10%；国际业 30% 20% 务促成贷款规模94-110亿元，对应增速20-40%。 10% 0% -10% ...

Investment Rating - Neutral rating for YY US with a target price of $37, implying a potential upside of 10.9% [1][2] Core Views - YY's Q4 2023 revenue of $570 million slightly exceeded expectations by 2%, with adjusted net profit of $64 million, up 28% YoY [2] - BIGO segment showed steady recovery with 3% YoY revenue growth in Q4 2023, driven by 8% YoY growth in paying users [2] - Management guided Q1 2024 revenue of $543-560 million, 5% above Bloomberg consensus [2] - 2024 BIGO revenue growth is expected to be 6%, partially offset by adjustments in the voice business [2] - The termination of the YY Live deal with Baidu has negatively impacted investor sentiment [2] Financial Performance - YY's 2023 revenue declined 6% YoY to $2.268 billion, with a 1.4% growth expected in 2024 [5] - Non-GAAP net profit for 2023 was $293 million, with a forecasted decline of 8% to $270 million in 2024 [5] - BIGO Live MAU grew 4% YoY in Q4 2023, with strong growth in Middle East (+13%), Europe (+11%), and Japan/Korea/Australia/New Zealand (+8%) [2][6] - Likee MAU declined 14% YoY in Q4 2023, but ad revenue surged nearly 2.5x for the full year [2] - Hago achieved positive operating cash flow for the first time in 2023 [2] Valuation and Shareholder Returns - Target price revised down to $37 from $39 based on a 10-year DCF model, implying a 2024 P/E of 8x [2] - YY returned $355 million to shareholders in 2023 through dividends and buybacks, representing 122% of adjusted net profit [2] - Over $500 million in buyback capacity remains as of the report date [2] Industry Context - YY is categorized under the entertainment content sub-sector, alongside peers like Bilibili, Kuaishou, and Tencent Music [11] - The report covers a broad range of internet and education companies, with most receiving Buy ratings [11]

Investment Rating - Neutral rating for Momo Group (MOMO US) with a target price of $6.60, implying a potential upside of 10.7% [1][2] Core Views - Momo's Q4 2023 revenue of RMB 3.0 billion slightly exceeded expectations, down 7% YoY and 1% QoQ [1] - Adjusted net profit of RMB 520 million in Q4 2023, 6% above expectations, with adjusted net margin improving to 17% YoY [1] - Weak consumer sentiment in live streaming and social spending continues to pressure Momo and Tantan revenues [1] - Momo's main platform revenue declined 9% YoY in Q4 2023 due to reduced live streaming gifting and social spending [1] - Tantan revenue dropped 21% YoY in Q4 2023, with MAU continuing to decline and paying members decreasing by 200k QoQ [1] - New applications revenue grew 43% YoY and 8% QoQ, driven by rapid growth of overseas social product Soulchill [1] Financial Projections - 2024 revenue guidance of RMB 24.5-25.5 billion for Q1, below previous expectations by 4-7% [2] - Momo main platform revenue expected to decline 15% YoY in 2024 due to reduced event operations [2] - Tantan revenue projected to drop 22% YoY in 2024 as focus shifts to exploring commercialization models [2] - Adjusted operating margin expected to decline to 18% in 2024, down 3 percentage points YoY [2] - 2024 revenue forecast of RMB 10.7 billion, down 10.9% YoY [4] - 2024 net profit forecast of RMB 1.7 billion, down 20.5% YoY [4] Valuation and Shareholder Returns - Target price reduced to $6.60 based on 5x 2024 P/E ratio, down from $8.30 [2] - Share price has corrected 22% post-earnings, largely reflecting profit downgrade and dividend cut [2] - Net cash position of $1.6 billion as of end-2023, representing 140% of market cap [2] - Shareholder returns remain attractive with 9% dividend yield and $290 million buyback plan [2] Operational Metrics - Momo's live streaming revenue declined 9% YoY in Q4 2023 [1] - Tantan's live streaming revenue dropped 39% YoY in Q4 2023 [8] - Momo's VAS revenue decreased 10% YoY in Q4 2023 [1] - Tantan's VAS revenue fell 13% YoY in Q4 2023 [8] - Marketing expenses as percentage of revenue improved by 3 percentage points YoY and 2 percentage points QoQ [1]

互联网 2024 年 3 月 21 日 4 季度运营要点：1）社交网络收入同比降 2%，因直播服务调整，但部分 被视频号直播、音乐付费和小游戏收入增长抵消。小游戏 2023 年流水增 50%+。2）游戏业务运营稳定，收入降 1%，本土游戏降 3%，主要因《王 者荣耀》和《和平精英》增长承压，海外增 1%，受 Supercell 部分游戏调 整影响。3）广告增长受视频号及搜一搜新广告库存拉动明显，视频号用 户使用时长全年同比增 100%+，广告收入 4 季度同比翻倍，得益于点击率 提升。4）金融科技维持同比双位数增长，受支付及财富管理拉动；企业 服务增 20%，视频号直播服务费贡献及云服务调整重组后收入稳定增长。 此报告最后部分的分析师披露、商业关系披露和免责声明为报告的一部分，必须阅读。 下载本公司之研究报告，可从彭博信息：BOCM 或 https://research.bocomgroup.com 谷馨瑜, CPA connie.gu@bocomgroup.com (86) 10 8800 9788-8045 2024 年 3 月 21 日 下载本公司之研究报告，可从彭博信息：BOCM 或 https:// ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price raised to HKD 24.00, indicating a potential upside of 27.8% from the current price of HKD 18.78 [1][8]. Core Insights - The company's quarterly performance exceeded expectations, driven by the consolidation of travel business, with revenue reaching RMB 3.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 110% [1][2]. - The adjusted net profit for the quarter was RMB 480 million, with a net profit margin of 15%, slightly above expectations [1][2]. - The report anticipates a revenue growth of 20-25% for the full year, with a profit increase of 23% [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2023, the company is projected to generate revenue of RMB 11.896 billion, a year-on-year growth of 80.7% [3][8]. - The adjusted net profit for 2023 is expected to be RMB 2.199 billion, reflecting a significant recovery from the previous year [3][8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 is forecasted at RMB 0.98, with a substantial year-on-year growth of 236.7% [3][8]. Revenue Breakdown - The company's revenue is expected to be driven by the traditional OTA business, with a projected 22% year-on-year growth in Q1 2024 [2][3]. - The travel segment, including transportation and accommodation, is anticipated to see significant growth, with accommodation nights increasing by 70% compared to 2019 levels [2][3]. - The overall revenue for 2024 is projected to reach RMB 17.458 billion, with a growth rate of 46.8% [3][8]. Valuation and Market Position - The report has adjusted revenue and profit forecasts for 2024 upwards by 28% and 7% respectively, maintaining a price-to-earnings ratio of 18 times for 2024 [2][3]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing recovery in domestic travel demand and has a competitive advantage in lower-tier markets [2][3]. - The integration of the travel business is expected to enhance resource synergy and provide long-term growth opportunities [2][3].